Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 7/19/17

1:58
Dan Szymborski: MAIN SCREEN TURN ON

1:58
The Average Sports Fan: Do you think David Wright ever gets another MLB AB?

1:59
Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll make an appearance, but not many of ’em.

1:59
Guest: If you’re a White Sox fan, who would you rather not see blow games as their closer… Swarzak or Clippard?

2:00
Dan Szymborski: Clippard because you’ll directly remember Robertson

2:01
Nick: Outlook for Mags Sierra? Can he be an above average hitter?

2:01
Dan Szymborski: For the position?  Maybe, he’s not really a soft hitter for a guy who hits so few homers.  But for everyone?  Probably not.

2:01
MC: What’s the best move the Dodgers can realistically make without giving up Buehler/Verdugo?

2:02
Dan Szymborski: I think most players available could be gotten for some kind of package that doesn’t involve the Dodgers top top prospects.

2:03
976: Verlander has two more years left on his contract, but he’s 34 and hasn’t had a great year (despite an uptick in velocity across the board).  Is he done?

2:03
Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t say done, but I suspect he’s in #3 inning-eater territory.

2:03
Dan Szymborski: That’s fine if there’s a need, but there’s no reason to pay a bunch for the privilege of paying him 2.333/65

2:03
976: Have you done any work on Atlanta’s park factors since the season started?  Curious to see what the early read is.

2:03
Dan Szymborski: Not since the preseason estimate (other than the basic calculations).

2:03
Dan Szymborski: Remember, our sample sizes are still very small.

2:04
Brews Crews: So Travis Shaw… Is he for real? True talent level is?

2:04
Dan Szymborski: We’re probably seeing his peak right now and while he’s good, I don’t think he’s a 140 OPS+ guy in the future.

2:04
The Average Sports Fan: I can’t see the Reds getting a ton for Cozart.  Would the Reds just be better served to try and re-sign him?

2:04
Dan Szymborski: No.

2:05
Dan Szymborski: We’re talking about a 31-year-old to-be free agent having the first three-WAR season of his career on a rather poor team that isn’t really that close to contention.

2:05
Dan Szymborski: A team with a hole may see the value in paying him based on his 2017 rather than his 2018-2020, but that’s not the Reds.

2:05
Dan Szymborski: At least it shouldn’t be.

2:06
976: If moving Freeman to 3B ends up being a mild success, do you think we’ll see more experimentation in positions?  Who would you like to see tried out somewhere new?

2:06
Dan Szymborski: I’d try every failed hitting prospects with a strong arm as a pitcher, for one.

2:07
Dan Szymborski: I do like the attempt.  The Braves aren’t really that good a team and the benefit of that is trying stuff like this.

2:07
Dan Szymborski: Get value wherever you can.

2:07
Ryan: I used to joke about the Tigers riding things out to 80-84 wins. Apparently they’re not doing that.  So, any reason why I should not be disappointed with the return for JD Martinez?

2:07
Dan Szymborski: Because it’s two months of a player who has a good bat and some serious defensive limitations.

2:09
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, the White Sox got a better package yesterday, but that was for two months of Frazier *and* a year and two months of Robertson *and* four years and two months (or is it three?) of Kahnle.

2:10
Dan Szymborski: The Diamondbacks werne’t going to say “OK, have Lugo and Banda and Leyba and Clarke for two months of J.D. Martinez.”

2:10
Dookie Howser, MD: Is Jeff Sullivan your Chat warm up act or are you his after party?

2:10
Dan Szymborski: I’m in my own crazy dimension, I think.

2:10
Orioles Fan: Peter Angelos blocked Duquette from going north to Toronto for a promotion. Things seem sour behind the scenes. Should this concern O’s fans with regards to the deadline?

2:11
Dan Szymborski: I think worse than infighting in the organization is the possible lack of reality on any of the principals just where the O’s are looking at being.

2:11
RotoLando: Darvish or Archer, forever and beyond?

2:11
Dan Szymborski: Darvish by a little.

2:11
Manny Machado: What uniform am I wearing in 2019?

2:11
Dan Szymborski: I’ll just say Phillies, but that’s because you made me.

2:12
Dookie Howser, MD: If Carson Cistulli were a muppet, which muppet would he be?

2:12
Dan Szymborski: Waldo C. Graphic.

2:12
Rick Hahn: How’d i do with the recent trade?

2:12
Dan Szymborski: Just fine.

2:12
Graboids: How do you feel about medical grade crack?

2:12
Dan Szymborski: Dunno.  I assume it gets you high.

2:12
Josh T: What does a return for a TORP rental like Yu Darvish look like at the deadline, assuming Rangers decide to go in that direction?

2:13
Dan Szymborski: Unless they go for quantity over quality they should get a top 50 prospect, though likely not two unless a team really panics.

2:14
Catella-yes?: Dan, gimme a hot take on Castellanos and his ROS value. His wOBA seems to be catching up to his xwOBA.

2:14
Dan Szymborski: Meh.

2:14
Paul at the Library: I really need catching help as Lucroy is about as useful as a wicker bedpan.  Would you trade Ervin Santana for Gattis?

2:15
Dan Szymborski: I would.  Santana’s one of the better decline bets and unlike an MLB team, you don’t have to actually play him at catcher to play him at catcher.

2:15
Orioles Fan: O’s farm is ranked 28-30 in MLB. (IF) they sold Britton, Brach, O’Day, Smith, Castillo.. Farm rank September 1st?

2:15
Dan Szymborski: IF?  Probably get up to 20 maybe?  And that may be optimistic.  There’s not a whole lot of super excitement there trade value wise.

2:15
Dan Szymborski: Nor do I think they’ll really go full selloff

2:15
Big Joey: Do you think Miggy will play for a different team before his contract ends? He’s going to be full-time DH starting next year and I can see him being Ortiz-esc as he plays into his early 40’s.

2:15
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think so.

2:16
Dan Szymborski: Ortiz ended up aging especially well.

2:17
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, Ortiz looked like he was in decline for a couple of years there, but for most players, even excellent ones, the comeback is less than Papi’s

2:17
Dan Szymborski: Cabrera’s going to be hard-pressed to just be league-average for the season.  At his age, that’s a red flag for anybody

2:17
Big Joey: What do you think of Thames for ROS?

2:17
Dan Szymborski: Projections strike me as reasonable.

2:18
Neal Huntington: Who should I trade at the deadline? Who am I going to actually trade at the deadline?

2:18
Dan Szymborski: McCutchen.  Less.

2:18
Dan Szymborski: I think the Pirates will be busier in the offseason

2:18
Blackburn: Could you see the Pirates getting anyone at the TD?

2:18
Dan Szymborski: Significant?  No

2:19
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think they’re really close enough that it’s worth making an addition and I think that trading off assets will be more of a winter thing.

2:19
Dan Szymborski: Though they could still trade McCutchen

2:20
Dan Szymborski: I mean, I guess they could trade off a Jaso or something, but that’s a who cares kinda return.

2:20
Dookie Howser, MD: Dave had an interesting bit in his trade value series about Mookie Betts, infield flies and BABIP. Is there some kind of BABIP+ stat that takes into account things like infield flies, softly hit grounders, etc that tries to take out those types of plays for a better measure of a hitter’s “luck”

2:20
Dan Szymborski: There’s lots of different variants based on different data.  I know I have one internally.

2:21
Dan Szymborski: OK, why are there 10 billion Pirates questions in the queue?  Did all the Nick Markakis groupies get a taste for Iron Sh…errr…City?

2:21
Elwynn: Freddie Freeman pulled mid game and seen hugging and handshaking everyone in dugout. Have you heard anything?

2:22
Dan Szymborski: He was feeling sick, I believe.

2:22
Dan Szymborski: It’s like 100 degrees down there right now

2:23
Dan Szymborski: I have that game on, but I’ve only been half listening since I’m talking with you guys

2:23
Mike: Dan, happy National Hot Dog Day! I’m celebrating by digging into a burrito, which is also a sandwich. How will you celebrate?

2:23
Dan Szymborski: I have some flank steak to finish

2:23
Dan Szymborski: I mostly eat hot dogs at games

2:23
Dan Szymborski: I always sneak out of the press box for hot dog and beer runs.

2:25
greg: Hypothetically, if not traded, do you think Zack Cozart would accept a qualifying offer, or rather hit the market?

2:26
Dan Szymborski: I would guess he’ll hit the market.  Even in a short-term deal, he could probably get 2/40 or something

2:26
RotoLando: Wow, not only is it Szym Chat time, there is ice cream in the conference room!  This does not sound like a trap at all

2:26
Dan Szymborski: THE ICE CREAM IS A LIE.  Just like the cake.

2:27
matt: do you think that the Dodgers will use Walker Buehler out of the bullpen in September and the postseason?

2:27
Dan Szymborski: Doesn’t strike me as likely unless they start running into issues.  He’s not on the 40-man.

2:27
Wade Boggs: Has anyone really been far even as decided to use even go want to do look more like?

2:27
John: Do the Padres get a top 100 prospect for Brad Hand?

2:27
Dan Szymborski: Yes, but more likely in the bottom half.

2:27
Dookie Howser, MD: How many times does Moncada strike out tonight?

2:27
Dan Szymborski: 2

2:28
John: Who has higher ceiling/floor between Perdomo/Lamet?

2:28
Dan Szymborski: I think Lamet.  He’s still very raw, so there’s a lot of upside.

2:29
Dave: What was Detroit thinking with the Martinez trade? If it’s the last day before the deadline, fine, take what you can get. But what was the harm in waiting two weeks to see if an outfielder for a contender gets injured?

2:29
Dan Szymborski: The harm in waiting is that you don’t even get that.  There are a limited number of teams that are going to pay handsomely for a one-win corner outfield type

2:30
Dan Szymborski: (That’s one win remaining, not one win pers season)

2:30
Dan Szymborski: And a trade two weeks before the deadline is essentially 25% more value for the acquiring team.

2:30
Dan Szymborski: The risk is you get even less.

2:31
Kimbo Mice: Will Britton really fetch as much as Chapman or Miller given his mysterious arm troubles this year?

2:31
Dan Szymborski: No

2:31
Dan Szymborski: Unfortunately, he’s more comparable to Wade Davis trade than the other two

2:31
Rob: Will Amed Rosario ever get promoted to the bigs?

2:32
Dan Szymborski: Terry Collins is really excited about the Jeff Huson kid and this other guy Mark Grudzielanek is going to be a fight for a roster spot.

2:32
Dan Szymborski: Maybe after that, if the team’s desperate.

2:32
Brent Kent: What happened to Lucroy?

2:32
Dan Szymborski: I really don’t know!

2:32
Nate: Should the Giants demand a similar return for Strickland as the Padres are asking for Brad Hand?

2:33
Dan Szymborski: I like Hand a little better, but they should expect a reasonable prospect.

2:33
Matt: How would typing “MAIN SCREEN TURN ON” to turn on your main screen be a useful strategy? How would you know where you were typing it if your main screen was not yet on?

2:33
Dan Szymborski: That’s me talking to you guys.

2:33
My name is Judge…: is swarzak a 2nd or 3rd tier reliever in this market?  does he get traded in July or August waiver deal?

2:33
Dan Szymborski: Lower tier than either Strickland or Hand, for sure.

2:34
Daniel: So a hot dog is essentially a smaller log of bologna, if I slice up the hot dog like bologna is it then undoubtedly a sandwich? And if not, then is a bologna sandwich really a sandwich? Also, is a hot dog bun not similar to the loaf of bread used at subway?

2:34
Dan Szymborski: Subway isn’t a sub if the buns are hinged.

2:34
Dan Szymborski: And why are you eating at Subway?

2:34
CamdenWarehouse: What do you think of JD in Arizona?

2:34
Dan Szymborski: A reasonable fit at a position ARizona has gotten little from.

2:34
Panama: Glasnow and KBryan Hayes for Solarte and Brad Hand? Fair for Pirates and Padres

2:35
Dan Szymborski: Not sure what the Pirate motivation is.

2:35
Brent Kent: What does Darvish command on the open market and where do you think he goes?

2:35
Dan Szymborski: Save this for winter!

2:35
Don Bon: If the Orioles deal away their guys, should they even want top pitching prospects back given their terrible record with pitchers?

2:36
Dan Szymborski: They still need to get pitching prospects because that’s where the pitching they need is going to have to come from

2:36
Slapshot: You certainly could have found a better wrestler to be Kurt Angle’s “son” than Jason Jordan, right?

2:36
Dan Szymborski: Heh

2:36
Mac: Does the Indians-Martinez rumor make sense to you? Feel like they would’ve easily given a better package than what the d-backs gave

2:36
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think they would have topped that package.

2:36
Eric: Do you think Avi Garcia has turned out just a lucky first half? Regardless, White Sox should be trying to trade him, too, right?

2:36
Dan Szymborski: He’s probably improved to a degree, but he’s not likely to be an all-star again.

2:37
Daniel: Do you believe in the conspiracy theory that Aaron Gordon of the Orlando Magic and Aaron Judge are actually the same person?

2:37
Dan Szymborski: Heh.

2:38
Dan Szymborski: Once you look at their bodies, Judge would be bulkier

2:38
Lucas Duda: Can I net a top 100 prospect by myself?

2:38
Dan Szymborski: Probably not.

2:38
Kyle: What kind of return can the Os reasonably expect for Britton?

2:38
Dan Szymborski: Maybe someone’s 5th-best prospect and a couple of sleepers.

2:40
Dan Szymborski: Perhaps I’m being too pessimistic, but he’s going to be valued less highly than if he had been healthy all year

2:40
Rob: Will Peter Angelos ever get a clue and give Dan Duquette the ‘ok’ to sell off their best trade pieces (Britton, Machado, Brach, etc.), instead of hanging on just to let them walk for nothing?

2:41
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think the Orioels will do a full rebuild.

2:41
My name is Judge…: tonight is game of thrones night at comisky; it is also the first game yoan moncada will play for the white sox.  There will be a replica iron throne on the outfield concourse.  coincidence that he comes up today when he can rightfully take his seat on the iron throne?  i think not; the genius of rick hahn continues to grow!

2:41
Alex: Where do the Jays go from here?  I know Fangraphs likes them a bit (Swydan wrote about it a few days back), but losses like last night’s (this morning’s?) are not helping.

The most obvious trade pieces (Liriano & Estrada) have wrecked their value by being hurt and/or bad, while Smoak’s lack of track record and versatility makes me think they would get less for this breakout that one would assume at first glance.  Even the former MVP Donaldson has struggled with calf issues for a couple of years now, and is having a poor season by his standards in 2017.  Selling him now would be selling very low.

On the other hand, they don’t want to start losing these players for nothing.  The team is in a most unenviable spot.

2:41
Dan Szymborski: The Blue Jays are one of the more itneresting teams this deadline as they’re nearing that crossroads.

2:41
Dan Szymborski: I think they’ll trade off a few pieces, but I don’t think the big names will be moved.

2:42
Dan Szymborski: So the Stroman rumors that pop up, I think are just rumors.

2:42
Slapshot: What do you think a proper send off for Bartolo Colon would be with the rumors on Twitter that he’s considering retiring after his next start?

2:43
Dan Szymborski: Hang on.

2:43
Slew (Seattle): Are the Cleveland Indians good at baseball?

2:43
Dan Szymborski: I think they’ll still be OK

2:46
Dan Szymborski: For Bartolo

2:46
Dan Szymborski:

2:46
Colin: Avisail Garcia version 2.0 here to stay? Cornerstone piece to the ChiSox rebuild?

2:46
Dan Szymborski: Let’s call him Avi 1.7.

2:46
Dan Szymborski: And no.

2:46
Dan Szymborski: If anything, he shoudl be traded.

2:46
Matt Klentak: Am I off my rocker? About to spend big money without any proven core? All of my prospects are coming up “meh”

2:47
Dan Szymborski: I think the lucky 2016 record was bad for the Phillies long-term.

2:47
Rob: Rumor is the Indians were in on JD Martinez as well. Where would they play him? Chisenhall has been one of their more productive hitters but would have no spot to play.

2:47
Dan Szymborski: That’s one of the reasons that I find it hard to believe the Indians would have paid more.

2:48
Dan Szymborski: Unless they’re more worried about CHisenhall’s calf than they’re letting o n

2:48
Jeff: Are the Indians struggles with RISP something to worry about or just a product of sample size? What should the do?

2:48
Dan Szymborski: I’ve never ofund much predictive value in situational stats.

2:48
Prison Mike: What do you think the odds of Jeff Samardzija getting traded are and who do you think might be a good fit for him?

2:49
Dan Szymborski: I think the Giants are more likely to hang onto the Shark because if they start trading, I think it’ll be more th eroutine tuype

2:49
Ducky Bean: Does the QO affect any trade anymore?

2:49
Dan Szymborski: Only to the agree that what you get has to better than the QO would be if you could have offered it.

2:49
Dan Szymborski: But generally speaking, the guys who are going to be worth a QO are going to fetch better prospects than the lone compensation pick.

2:49
Dan Szymborski: ANd, of course, the new teams can’t give a QO

2:50
Mike: after giving up rutherford do yanks go all in for a starter to have a real chance in the playoffs

2:50
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think so – I suspect they could’ve done a similar package for Quintana if they wanted to splash.

2:50
Dan Szymborski: Gray isn’t as interesting as Quintana

2:50
Randy: Who says no: Machado and Britton to the Astros for Bregman, J. Musgrove, Martes, F. Perez and two other prospects in HOU’s 11-15 range?

2:50
Dan Szymborski: Astros

2:50
groucho: What do you think the cardinals will do at the deadline? What would GM Szymborski do?

2:51
Dan Szymborski: Cards are fairly low-key.  And i think this time, it’s the right play.  With the wild card tricky as a fallback position, and the Cubs very likely the better team, I don’t think I’d get splashy

2:51
My name is Judge…: with the trades yesteday the white sox have ~14million on the books for next year (this will obviously higher after arb number and rookie salaries, but probably not over 30 million)  then have 2.5 million on the books for 2019.  i never thought i would say this, but are the white sox emerging as legit canidates for machado or harper?

2:52
Dan Szymborski: Not while Reinsdorf is around.

2:52
Mike: when do we see chance adams? or is he bait for sonny gray type

2:52
Dan Szymborski: If the Yankees do pick up Gray, I can see him being in that trade.

2:52
Matt: After the return that JD Martinez commanded, that’s gotta put a floor of a Mike Trout type player for Markakis, no?

2:52
Dan Szymborski: Depends if the Angels will throw in some prospects.

2:52
CamdenWarehouse: Orioles Fan, they can’t sell all 5 of those guys.  No one will take O’day for a return.  No market for Smith.

2:52
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, that’s the problem.  A lot of names, but not a ton of guys that will fetch players.

2:52
Nick: Dansby Swanson a bust?

2:52
Dan Szymborski: No

2:52
My name is Judge…: should the 2020-2025 seasons just be 162 games* of the white sox playing the braves?  
*game 163 if necessary

2:52
Dan Szymborski: That would get boring fast.

2:52
RRH: Does Elvis Andrus for Samardizja pass the smell test in a 10-teamer? I’ve got Machado at short. Shark’s peripherals scream positive regression (progression ?) even if the surface stats are a bit ugly.

2:53
Dan Szymborski: I think it’s reasonable.

2:53
Dan Szymborski: Ugggh, I have to stop at 3 (hard deadline, I have some recording to do) and I’m n ot even at the halfway point of questions.  Can you guys stop being so…errr.inquistiive?

2:53
Sean: Say Shohei Otani comes to the MLB as a hyrbid player. In this hypothetical game, Otani starts and throws 5 shutout innings before switching to 1B with a 1-0 lead. Say the score doesn’t change until the 9th, when Otani moves from 1B back to pitcher and throws a perfect ninth to win the game 1-0. Does Otani get both a win and a save?

2:54
Dan Szymborski: No.

2:54
Dan Szymborski: One of the rules says the save can’t be given to the pitcher that gets a win.

2:54
Dan Szymborski: So he’d get a win and nobody would get  a save.

2:54
Dan Szymborski: We should change the rule so that nobody who pitches is allowed to get a save.

2:55
Dan Szymborski: Then we can get rid of the garbage stats.  If we want to kill the win, we should vivisection the save.

2:55
Babe Lincoln: Why so sure Miggy is full-time DH next year?

2:55
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think I said that.  ISomeone brought up Ortiz

2:55
Bob: Marte gonna be the same when he gets back?

2:55
Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll be fine.

2:56
Babe Lincoln: Did Miggy fall off a cliff, or just a down year?

2:56
Dan Szymborski: I’m not on board with the full Delahanty and I think he’ll bounce back, but not to p rime Miggy.

2:56
Ray: Return for Martinez & Frazier make it more/less likely that Jays sell off next week?

2:56
Dan Szymborski: Don’t think it has an effect.

2:56
Guest: Who would be the best players for the Cardinals to trade? Rosenthal, Gyorko, and Carpenter? Oh and Lynn as rentals?

2:56
Dan Szymborski: Lynn would be the most likely of this group.

2:56
Move Zig!: somebody set up us the bomb!

2:57
Rob: Favorite MD beer?  Flying Dog.. Heavy Seas.. or Natty Boh?

2:57
Dan Szymborski:

2:57
Dookie Howser, MD: The day when Freddy Freeman is not hugging everybody within grappling distance is the day we have a story.

2:58
Dan Szymborski: #hugwatch

2:58
Chuncey Wiggins: Can you see the Braves getting offended that they don’t have the best farm system anymore and immediately trading everyone they can?

2:58
Dan Szymborski: No, I can see the Braves going WESA CONTENDER and doing something crazy.

2:58
ledwards: Dan, have you ever had a little too much to drink in the press box? How often do you see others in said box drinking a little/way too much?

2:58
Dan Szymborski: I don’t try and bring beer into the press box, that would be a bit unprofessional.

2:59
Dan Szymborski: I’m more likely to grab a random seat and drink/eat with an interesting group of people.

2:59
Chuncey Wiggins: Can you see a scenario where the Rockies ever feature beer advertisements in their park aside from Coors?

2:59
Dan Szymborski: Well, another beer owned by Coors!

2:59
Morris Buttermaker: Is it true that i struck out Ted Williams?

2:59
Dan Szymborski: LIES

2:59
CamdenWarehouse: Was there a better baseball story during the first half than Zack Cozart and the donkey?

2:59
Dan Szymborski: No, that was a great one.

2:59
jjp: When does Acuna play in Atlanta? April 2018? June 2018? Later?

2:59
Dan Szymborski: I’ll say midseason.

3:00
Dan Szymborski: The Braves will still have the Corner Crap Factory.

3:00
Daniel: Cause I’m on a diet and the veggies give me diarrhea so I dont absorb the calories due to dysentary

3:00
Dan Szymborski: I don’t know what this is referring to, but it entertained me.

3:00
mmddyyyy: What is the plural of RBI?

3:00
Dan Szymborski: RBIs.  It’s a plural of an abbreviation, so it gets an s.

3:01
Dan Szymborski: Unfortunately, it is time to depart.

3:01
Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming,e veryone!  You can find my work at ESPN.com, chats and projections here at FanGraphs, on DSzymborski on Twitter.

3:01
Dan Szymborski: AT DSzymborski

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Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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Think you’re greatly selling JD Martinez short as he should be closer to a 2 WAR player the rest of the regular season which doesn’t include the importance of the post-season on top of that. The guy is a top 10 HITTER (not power hitter but overall hitter in MLB and has been the last 4 years) who’s locked in big time this year also. He’s put up 1.7 WAR in 57 games this year and has averaged a 1 WAR every 33.5 games the previous on average the last 3 seasons. There’s still around 70 games left this regular season and the post-season also. Keep in mind also he will be playing in basically the best offensive ball park in MLB (Arizona) next to Coors also. Martinez stays healthy he will thrive in Arizona.

YKnotDisco
Member
YKnotDisco

The projections haven’t fully adapted to his breakout, so i’ll take the over on the 120 wRC+ ROS. Though, in order for him to accumulate 2 WAR in the last ~70 games, he has to keep his current level of production at the plate (162 wRC+). I would imagine he is due for some regression there. Keep in mind he provides negative value on the bases and gives Matt Kemp a run for his money on defense.