Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 9/13/17

1:59
Dan Szymborski: Party status:  Started hot.

2:00
The Average Sports Fan: Will the Twins be able to hold on for the 2nd wildcard?

2:00
Dan Szymborski: It’s getting closer – two games is significant with this amount of time remaining.

2:01
Dan Szymborski: It’s enough that it makes them vs. the field a coin flip or so.

2:01
Brad: will you do a hitting and pitching projection for Ohtani?

2:01
Dan Szymborski: Yes.

2:01
CamdenWarehouse: Jotcast says this is going to start at 2:00 EST.  Twitter says 2:00 EDT. Why does jotcast think we’re in standard time???

2:01
Dan Szymborski: Maybe it believes farmers are the standard?

2:01
Keith Hernandez: I don’t have a question.  I just want to say that as a baseball fan, I get so much pure enjoyment out of watching this Indians pitching staff pitch on a nightly basis.  Basically every starter has become a must see for me.

2:01
Dan Szymborski: CHEATING

2:01
Slapshot: For the Fangraphs audience who missed the Twitter fun, can you remind everyone the correct way to make chili?

2:02
Dan Szymborski: Beef.  Chili.  Salt and spices.

2:02
Dan Szymborski: Any liquid you add must be beef broth since it’s beef, spices, and water.

2:02
Dan Szymborski: If you add beans, throw it in the garbage disposal because you’ve ruined your chili.

2:03
Duhbear: The Rays are trying to bring up McKay to be exactly what Ohtani already is. Does that give them any sort of bargaining power or is Ohtani on such a different level that every team would bend over backwards to accommodate him?

2:03
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, that doesn’t work.

2:04
Moltar: So Dave couldn’t answer this, but do you know what teams actually have the bonus pool to sign Ohtani to a max deal? Supposing that he cared about maximizing his bonus over all else, what teams are best positioned to sign him?

2:04
Dan Szymborski: I don’t actually know, I haven’t accumulated the data – it’s awkwardly available

2:04
Harold: Is Willie Calhoun a fantasy playoff asset or more of a stash for next season type of player? What kind of numbers do you think he could put up playing FT in 2018?

2:04
Dan Szymborski: I think of him more as a stash right now, unless you get him qualified at 2nd.

2:05
Dan Szymborski: As for 2018 numbers, cheating to ask for projection early!

2:05
Wild card: How many wins will the second AL wild card team have? Who will it be?

2:05
Dan Szymborski: Probably the team that wins 85 gets the wild card

2:05
Dan Szymborski: Twins the favorite

2:05
Bryson Beery: What does this streak mean for the indians post-season, will they stay hot? or cool off once the streak ends?

2:05
Dan Szymborski: Hot or not has no predictive value for the postseason, so nothing.

2:07
Harold: Chris Archer is breaking my heart. I’ve counted on him all season but the forearm scare isn’t going away. Should the Rays consider shutting him down? Should I consider moving on as a fantasy player to someone like Lamet?

2:08
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think the Rays are there yet and there’s nothing new on his tightness other than the precautionary pull.  Yeah, the Red Sox start wasn’t good, but his velocity was still fine.  I’d knock him down a notch, but I woudn’t jump off the bandwagon

2:08
Hypothetical: Say you had a reliever who was guaranteed to give up exactly one run per inning. So an ERA of 9. How valuable would he be, considering it is a guaranteed win whenever you are up 2 in the 9th, up 3 in the 8th, etc.

2:08
Dan Szymborski: Very valuable, in the weird world where that exists.

2:09
OC: Curious what you (or zips) makes of minor league IFFB%. While I love willie calhoun’s hitting profile (low Ks + good power), he’s run a 30+% IFFB in the minors. Since IFFB are very similar results-wise to strikeouts, it seems the bat won’t play as well as I’d hope. Do minor league IFFB rates correlate with major league IFFB rates, and should we expect Calhoun to improve on that number?

2:09
Dan Szymborski: I’ve found minor league hit data a litlte weaker in correlation than MLB stuff.

2:09
Dan Szymborski: It’s noisy data, but it’s at least slightly useful.

2:09
Off season: How should teams think about selling in the off season, considering a team like the Twins going worst to playoffs. They held onto Dozier when many said they should take the best offer, and he’s leading them to the playoffs. Lessons for other “non contenders” in the off season?

2:09
Dan Szymborski: No.

2:10
Dan Szymborski: If the Twins getting a wild card is a lesson, then why would Royals, Rays, Orioles, etc. not be?

2:10
mike: CLE 12 outs away from 21 straight !

2:11
flanders: Something I’ve been really curious but I’m not sure how to look it up. What’s the largest gap between a player making their ML debut and losing their rookie eligibility?

2:11
Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure if it shoudl count, but Paul Schreiber should count.

2:12
Bob Villar: How does ZiPS like Albies for the future?

2:12
Dan Szymborski: Fine and dandy like sour candy.

2:12
CamdenWarehouse: no beans in the chili?

2:12
Dan Szymborski: If you want it to be chili, then yes, no beans.

2:12
Dan Szymborski: Chili with beans is like a crabcake with ketchup.  Take it to Rhode Island.

2:13
Tom: Talk to me about Dansby.

2:13
Dan Szymborski: He sounds like a character from the Great Gatsby

2:13
CamdenWarehouse: As someone who lives not in the mid atlantic, can you tell me how far you can get from Baltimore before you no longer see Old Bay in the store?

2:13
Dan Szymborski: I dunno.  You can get it in Ohio.  That’s more of a crowdsourced thing?

2:13
Dan Szymborski: OK guys, REPORT IF YOU’VE SEEN OR NOT SEEN OLD BAY AFTER LOOKING, FOLLOWED BY YOUR STATE

2:14
EK: What’s the most amazing thing about CLE’s winning streak thus far? Kluber? Diaz? Lindor?

2:15
Dan Szymborski: Kluber has been amazing, he still had an ERA above 4 in mid June.

2:15
JKD: What is the actual optimal deployment of Otani? On an AL team, he doesn’t get any ABs when pitching (unless they totally forfeit the DH those days) but if his bat plays, you can DH him three of the four other days (probably don’t want to do so on his throw day). In the NL, he bats when pitching (so ~100 PAs) and you can either play him sometimes in the field, or have him as designated pitcher pinch-hitter (so another 130-300 PAs). Thoughts?

2:16
Dan Szymborski: This is one of those TBD.  There are so many possibilities with a player like Otani.

2:16
Bob Villar: Would you trade Machado for Bellinger and Souza in a keeper?

2:17
Dan Szymborski: No if your league still allows him to be a SS, yes if youre league does not.

2:18
Bob Villar: Is this what Gerrit Cole really is or Is there another level to get him to almost-ace like?

2:18
Dan Szymborski: He can still get back there if he stops with the HRs

2:18
TwinkiePower: Joe Mauer & Byron Buxton: Gold Glove Odds?

2:18
Dan Szymborski: Buxton’s are very good.

2:19
Dan Szymborski: The process still isn’t perfect, but we’re actually getting generally better choices with less of an incumbent discount.

2:19
Dan Szymborski: Mauer, harder to tell.

2:20
Porcho Villa: Is Eric Thames a tough 2018 projection? He was Barry Bonds for a month plus, then plunged into contact-challenged mediocrity (or worse) for the balance of the season.

2:20
Dan Szymborski: The projections weren’t that bad for him in 2017, so I can’t imagine 2018 is necessarily harder.

2:20
Dan Szymborski: Steamer nailed it, though had not enough walks and too much BA.  ZiPS missed the walks, but got the BA and the SLG.

2:20
CLE: This 21 straight game feels like the postseason. Love it.

2:21
Andres: Hello! What does it mean when people say someone’s contract is “underwater”?

2:21
Dan Szymborski: Same as when your mortgage is underwater.

2:21
Dan Szymborski: The player’s worth less than the contract and in the connotation, generally extremely so.

2:21
Dan Szymborski: Like Pujols.

2:21
Bob Loblaw: What’s up with Tommy Pham?  Assuming his new super contact lenses have fixed his vision problems, can we expect another 4.5+ WAR season in ’18?

2:22
Dan Szymborski: The BABIP will likely come down a bit, but I think we just have to accept now he’s a really good player

2:23
Dan Szymborski: Remember Matt Diaz?  He had a solid offensive run after getting his eyes looked at

2:23
Dan Szymborski: Now, I’m not saying Pham is a 4.5 WAR player yet.

2:24
Dan Szymborski: Becuase there’s a lot of defense in there and that’s the most volatile short-term stat stuff.  And it’s a small sample, regardless of whether we feel its consistent with our beliefs

2:24
Dan Szymborski: I think I’d be comfortable calling Pham a 3 WAR player who *could* be a 4-5 WAR guy going forward

2:24
Not Ohtani: MLB merges with professional leagues from China, Japan, Europe, Cuba, and Korea to create a global baseball conglomerate.  A true World Series.  Then we wouldn’t need to have any of this international posting garbage and just straight up trades. THOUGHTS?????

2:25
Dan Szymborski: You’d need different travel.

2:25
Bob Villar: Byron Buxton or Kyle Schwarber in a dynasty league?

2:25
Dan Szymborski: Buxton

2:25
Dan Szymborski: I think he still has offensive upside.

2:25
Dan Szymborski: Though it may be closer than I’m saying, simply becuase you’re not properly awarded for defense in fantasy

2:26
CamdenWarehouse: Is it strange that two all time offensive records were set this year?  Even if they are two that no one cares about.  Does this happen more often than we realize?

2:26
Dan Szymborski: Wait, even I don’t know what those are

2:26
Enlightening Round: Can we please get a peak at Willie Calhoun’s ZIPS for 2018 or at least tell us if it’s generally positive?

2:26
Dan Szymborski: I talked a bit about Calhoun’s early 2018 projection in one of my pieces last week

2:26
Not Ohtani: NOT SEEN, TEXAS

2:26
Bob Villar: ILLINOIS – SEENT IT

2:26
CamdenWarehouse: Also, report where you’re from if you’ve never heard of Old Bay

2:26
AndyBaesball: Yes.  Southern Illinois

2:29
Dan Szymborski: OK, here’s what we’ve got so far (adding places I’ve seen it too)

2:29
Dan Szymborski:

2:29
toki: Can we talk about how hot JD Martinez is ?

2:29
Dan Szymborski: His OPS+ is actually worse in Arizona than it was in Detroit!

2:29
divine chanteuse: I’m really worried about the outlook for my Rays next season. Longoria is clearly average at best at this point in his career, I think Souza and Dickerson are having their career years, LoMo is gone and if he wasn’t there’s no way he’d replicate what he’s done this year. Ramos has been awful, the bullpen is a mess, and Archer, if he isn’t traded, seems to be a guy that underperforms what his peripherals thinks he should be. Am I freaking out too much, or am I right to say that this is not a good team come 2018?

2:29
Dan Szymborski: I think you’re freaking out a little too much.  The Rays will do a lot.  It may not all be good, but they actively shift things around

2:30
TwinkiePower: One of the knocks against Joe Mauer has been that he’s taking up a lineup spot at 1B that’s normally reserved for a traditional power hitter. Considering his resurgence this season and the fact that just about everyone signed this season to perform that role has underwhelmed, are we going to see a shift in common wisdom on the value of players with power hitting and not much else?

2:30
Dan Szymborski: No.  Because you still need to do a *lot* of other stuff to make up for the lack of power.

2:31
Dan Szymborski: Without power, Mauer’s had to hit .300 *and* walk enough to have a .380 OBP *and* play good D, just to be an above-average 1B.

2:32
Nick S: Someone here once said IFFB is measured differently in the minors than in the majors.

2:32
Dan Szymborski: I do my own data mining.

2:32
Sleepy: You can mos def get Old Bay in the near-western suburbs of Chicago.

2:32
Tommy Pham: Why aren’t more people talking about my improbably great season?  I’ve a great late bloomer story, tons of personality, and interesting eye ailment, and  4.8 WAR in ~115 games?

2:32
Guest: I work for a restaurant, and can always get Old Bay in Texas.

2:32
Dan Szymborski: OK, I’ll take Texas off the nuclear whipping boy status then

2:33
The Man With No Name: Re Archer: 3 ER in 2.2 IP so far today with 4-3 K-BB.  42:34 strikes:balls.  Not good again.

2:33
Dan Szymborski: Oh, I haven’t been watching

2:34
Dan Szymborski: I’ve got CLE/DET on but I’m mostly watching chat

2:34
mike: RE: gold glove at 1B in AL. how is Carlos Santana actually a good defender this year?

2:34
Dan Szymborski: Don’t go nuts about one-year defensive stats

2:34
Joe Sigler: How big of a factor do you believe clutch hitting (late and close, RISP) is in the overall assessment of a player?

2:34
Dan Szymborski: Less than it used to be, still more than it should

2:34
Crusty: Old Bay is all over New York, yo.

2:34
Jazzflute: what are the chances Mejia breaks camp with Cleveland next season?

2:34
Dan Szymborski: Pretty good, I think

2:35
YOAT: Who do you like better in a fantasy format that uses defense. Albies or Margot?

2:35
Dan Szymborski: That’s tough, I like them both a *lot*

2:35
Bob Villar: Make sure to tell jazzflute that alex wood is worthless now

2:35
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Jacoby Ellsbury – All-time reach on catcher’s interference leader!

2:35
Dan Szymborski: Oh yeah, I saw that, now tha tI think of it.  Beating Rose.

2:35
Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: Dan’s consecutive chat streak is at an all time high right now at 2. Tune in next week to see the drama if he can stretch it to 3!

2:36
Dan Szymborski: I was at 3 in July!

2:36
Fangraphs Juggalo: How excited are you for the Juggalo March on Washington this weekend?

2:36
Dan Szymborski: Enthused.  It means I probably won’t run into them elsewhere.

2:36
Dan Szymborski: And since I’m not in DC, WIN

2:36
Joe Sigler: Seen it, West Michigan

2:36
Joe: Has Domingo Santana hit his ceiling?  Or is there still room for improvements?

2:36
Dan Szymborski: I think this is about where his ceiling is.

2:37
Jon: Does Jose Martinez get a shot in the spring to compete for everyday at-bats at 1B?

2:37
Dan Szymborski: I think the Cards are active this winter; there’s a lot of reshuffling.

2:37
CamdenWarehouse: Ellsbury reaching on CI and Pujols GIDP

2:37
Dan Szymborski: Dammit, I knew the second one too – I made a joke about it just recetly!

2:37
Jazzflute: Do you expect improved results from Glasnow based on the changes he’s made in the minors?

2:38
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but again, I liked him coming into the season too and he splatted

2:38
Crusty: I said Old Bay is in New York!!!! Add it to the list!!!!

2:38
IsIt2015Yet?: Dan on Chili: you don’t like adding cacao powder or dark chocolate to those chilis (you’ve hopefully roasted yourself)? Mixing in a bit of pork with the beef (bison is better) is amazing! I’m with you on no beans.

2:38
Dan Szymborski: I don’t add chocolate (it’s not a mole!) and I mostly just use beef, but I tolerate these ideas because it still at least honors the Meat + Chili Pepper concept.

2:39
Dan Szymborski: But no beans or tomatoes or that guy in my twitter timeline (I forgot who) that adds yellow mustard

2:39
Ryan: Can Weaver develop a good enough third pitch(probably curve) to be more than a back of the rotation guy?  His K/9 is pretty darn good in this SSS but surely his deceptive delivery can only take him so far.

2:39
Dan Szymborski: I think so

2:39
Bobby: I’m sure some teams might try to somehow circumvent the rules, quietly, to lure Otani. However, these are the same teams and owners that want a cap on players like him because they can’t cap individual salaries for the union members.

2:39
Dan Szymborski: It’s going to be tricky – MLB’s going to watch.

2:39
Pennsy: Since returning from injury Werth has dropped from .5 to .1 WAR. At this point does he make the postseason roster?

2:39
Dan Szymborski: Yes

2:39
Sandy Alderson: Can you tell me where in the competitive cycle the Mets are and how long it will be before the Mets compete for another pennant?

2:39
Dan Szymborski: There in the lollercopter part of the success cycle.

2:40
Dan Szymborski: Where they don’t really have a plan or, like, competence or anything.

2:40
Dan Szymborski: It’s sad to see Billy Beane’s mentor to have his name behind the New York Mess.

2:40
Travis: I might be slightly biased but Freddie Freeman is the second best hitter in baseball and will be for the next five plus years.

2:40
Bobby: Then again I can answer my own question and say teams like the Yankees Cubs Sox and Dodgers probably voted against the IFA cap (if there was a vote) but I think it might have been something the players gave up for something

2:40
Duhbear: FYI, the rays have had one of the best bullpens in the league since they retooled it at the trade deadline. They’ll still have a top-tier farm system and they could fill some needs via trade. They’re going to be just as alright next year as they were this year; always hoping for a few breaks to push them into the playoffs.

2:40
Kurt: Old Bay is available in North Carolina

2:40
CamdenWarehouse: Texas Restaurant person – are you talking about wholesale for the restaurant or at the grocery store?

2:40
YKnotDisco?!: Lawry’s & Johnny’s.

2:40
Esteban: What do you make of the pitch squeezing fiasco going on today?

2:41
Dan Szymborski: I have Det/Cle on, but I’m mostly listening, not really paying too close attention

2:41
Dan Szymborski: I was working on a piece before chat and then chat

2:41
Alaskan Native: Alaska where, we have it

2:41
Colt Holt: Everyone seems to assume no team would allow Ohtani to field…but if the Reds can only offer $300k, and the only way they can sign Ohtani is by committing 2-3 days in left field each week…even if there is an above average health risk, but Ohtani is dead set on signing with the first team willing to commit that to him…why wouldn’t you? For the Reds, you have $300k in investment for a star pitcher you can’t sign otherwise, and you have Billy Hamilton who can cover massive ground in CF. Won’t someone be willing to do the illogical thing and make the commitment to him?

2:42
Dan Szymborski: I think someone will be willing to make the commitment

2:42
The Man With No Name: Re Archer:  Got another K.  After 3 IP, results are poor but FIP is 2.82.  Seems tough to believe that a walk per inning plus expected BABIP over 9 balls in play yields such low expected runs.  No homers, so there’s that.

2:42
The Man With No Name: Can we crowdsource best use of Old Bay other than on seafood?  I vote fries, with rice as a solid runner-up.

2:42
Dan Szymborski: Chips!

2:42
Dan Szymborski: Crab Chips!

2:42
Dan Szymborski: Now, Utz Crab Chips, I cannot get in Ohio.

2:43
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: IsIt2015Yet? – Get your Cincinnati Chili out of here.

2:43
Dan Szymborski: I hate skyline

2:43
ssf: Does Odor have any trade value left anymore? I’ve never been more depressed about a player before

2:43
Dan Szymborski: I think he does still have value

2:43
Jazzflute: How concerned are you about Conforto long term?

2:43
Dan Szymborski: Not very

2:43
Crusty: Best gum?

2:43
Dan Szymborski: The ones that have your teeth.

2:43
Dan Szymborski: Teeth are handy

2:44
AC000000: I literally do not understand chili without beans. So what are you eating? Ground beef soup? A whole bowl of beef? Need some sustenance to your meal.

2:44
Dan Szymborski: YOu’re eating chili.

2:45
Dan Szymborski: You telling me you can’t eat this as a meal?

2:45
Dan Szymborski:

2:45
Dan Szymborski: Forget what I said about goign to Rhode Island.  GO TO LUXEMBOURG

2:45
Pennsy: How guilty should I feel as a gay man supporting a league that implicitly forbids its gay athletes from competing openly in publicly-funded stadiums?

2:46
Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure, I don’t have any insight into how you feel.  I don’t personally care that much about my entertainment matching my values, but I say that as a straight, white, college, upper-middle class male between 25-49, so everything kinda caters to me.

2:46
hello: Turkey chili is almost as bad as whole wheat pancakes.

2:47
Big Joe Mufferaw: What would be more valuable for a team. A player who hits 50 random HR’s over 500 ABs, or a player that hits 30 HRs in 30 AB (so you can deploy him whenever you want)?

2:47
Dan Szymborski: That’s actually something I want to try to actually figure out.

2:47
AC000000: I’m obviously behind. I’ve seen Old Bay seasoning at restaurants in Chicago, never in stores

2:47
Babe Truth: Indiana has old Gregg

2:47
Texas Restaurant Person: Admittedly, I live in coastal Texas with a lot of seafood, but I can get it both from my distributor or the local grocery store.

2:47
Not Ohtani: In Texas it’s not in grocery stores pretty sure so restaurant guy can shove it!

2:47
Joe: Old bay and Blue crabs!  Best seafood ever!!

2:47
CamdenWarehouse: Wow, never would have guessed Old Bay in Alaska.  Most useful Dan Chat ever.

2:47
Dan Szymborski: Now you know what states it’s safe to move to!

2:47
crazed trader: as a ucla student and lifelong dodger fan should i spend my hard earned money on postseason disappointment this year

2:48
Dan Szymborski: Postseasons are about disappointment.  There’s only one victor.

2:48
CamdenWarehouse: Want some Crab Chips?  I’ll mail some to you.

2:48
Dan Szymborski: It’s not really *that* hard to pour old bay into a bag of regular chips.

2:48
Dan Szymborski: Potato chips out here aren’t htat bad

2:48
The Man With No Name: Utz crab chips are amazing!  I don’t think it works though to just slap Old Bay on some Lay’s.

2:48
CamdenWarehouse: Fries with vinegar and Old Bay

2:48
Scuffy Mcgee: Give me some ray of hope that Yoan Moncada isn’t going to be a bust

2:48
Dan Szymborski: Projections are good?

2:48
get puiggy with it: What will it take for Joc pederson to regain any value and stave off the monster that is alex verdugo?

2:48
Dan Szymborski: It’s going to be tough.

2:48
The Man With No Name: Old Bay in chili?

2:48
Dan Szymborski: Chili, you have to honor the Texians

2:48
Crusty: Way to shame the un-toothed, Szymborski.

2:49
Dan Szymborski: I’m not saying that having teeth makes you better, I’m saying that having teeth *is* better than the laternative

2:49
Wrong Major: Hey Dan, is it possible to get into the stats and data analytics world without a stats/mathematics/economics degree? I’ve taken such an interest in baseball and political data analysis for 2 years now. Graduated with a BSME. Obviously dedication can make or break any hopes, but your input is valued

2:49
Dan Szymborski: Yes, but you need to really brush up on your relational databases and programming languages.

2:50
toki: that chili pic has beans in it…..

2:50
Dan Szymborski: Not, it doens’t, it’s that it’s using diced beef, not ground beef.

2:50
CamdenWarehouse: that chili doesn’t have tomato paste or crushed tomatoes?

2:51
Dan Szymborski: No

2:51
Roughneck Odor: Bryant as leadoff hitter?

2:51
Dan Szymborski: Why not?

2:51
AC000000: The plot thickens, I’m actually a vegetarian. Chili = beans and quinoa. FIGHT ME

2:51
Dan Szymborski: Look, you can make all the poor life choices you want; I have plenty of my own.  But it’s NOT chili.

2:51
Dan Szymborski: You don’t see meat people making meat dishes and calling it by veggie names!

2:52
Dan Szymborski: I don’t call my chili “beef salad” and you don’t see people making fake tofu made of real sausage!

2:52
The Man With No Name: Whole Wheat Pancakes can be delicious!  Try Kodiak Cakes mix.

2:52
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: I would note that I have not always been a vegetarian and have had many chilis in my life. But a well-made, slowly cooked vegetarian chili, with kidney beans, red beans, mirepoix, tomatoes, hot peppers, cashews, salt, pepper, cumin, and curry (with room to get creative with vegetable additions), is better than any chili with meat that I have had at any point in my life. It’s not an ethical argument, either, about the meat processing industry (though if you are going to eat meat, you should look for sustainable sources). Vegetarian chili is just better.

2:52
Dan Szymborski: YOu can enjoy it all your want.  It’s just not chili!

2:52
The Man With No Name: Re chili: If you can honor the meat by using bison, you can honor the spices by using Old Bay, says I.

2:52
Dan Szymborski: It’s a really different flavor profile

2:52
Barry: Could/should Austin Barnes be an every day catcher?

2:53
Dan Szymborski: I think so, but he can be even more valuable if he’s used like Tony Phillips

2:53
Peter: I don’t know of a single grocery store in Houston that *doesn’t* carry it. It’s ubiquitous in my experience.

2:53
Dan Szymborski: I think we need fighting

2:53
Dad: Why are you so interested in my old bae? Don’t you want to meet my new girlfriend?

2:54
Dan Szymborski: My position is that there’s no vegetarian chili any more than there’s carnivorous salad

2:55
NtFlxAndRichHill: I want to say something reactionary and possibly illogical: Jake Lamb can’t put together 2 good halves. .148 ISO since July 22nd. Is he droppable right now or do I hope for positive regression? His E. velocity is down 4 mph in this time period as well – possible unreported injury?

2:55
CamdenWarehouse: vegetarian chili does not exist

2:55
Crusty: Beans beans the music fruit, the more you eat, the more you toot.  The more you toot, the better you feel, so eat your beans with every meal…except not with chilli.

2:55
Dan Szymborski: Correct.

2:56
Not Ohtani: That’s not chili that’s just beans and quinoa in a bowl

2:57
The Man With No Name: I asked Dave earlier and will ask you now:  current player comp for Matt Olson?

2:58
Dan Szymborski: I dunno, Big Nick Swisher?

2:58
The Man With No Name: There is Tofurkey (or something).  And that fake meat that bleeds.  Both are anathema.

2:58
Jeff Bezos: Wherever you are, Old Bay is only one click away

2:58
toki:

2:58
Dan Szymborski: I object to those, too

2:58
AC000000: I kid I kid. Famous vegetarian restaurant in Chicago called Chicago Diner has vegetarian takes on food and their “chili” is a big hit. But I know it’s not chili, point taken !

2:58
The Man With No Name: Key to Old Bay flavor profile = celery salt

2:58
Babe Truth: BTW F Texas. My chili gets beer.

2:58
Dan Szymborski: Beer you use in chili is not directly in your mouth

2:58
The Man With No Name: Speaking of Old Bay, why aren’t the effing Orioles playing Sisco and Hayes?  Sign of organizational dysfunction?  Does not bode well for the inevitable rebuild.

2:59
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think the Orioles are particularly well run

2:59
CLE: 3 outs to goooooo

2:59
Dan Szymborski: Adding the letter o to go makes it have a different meaning

2:59
NtFlxAndRichHill: I love ZIPS’ player comparison feature. You don’t need to tell me how it does that, but I wouldn’t mind if you did! Sometimes I go to the leaderboards at fangraphs and filter by an age range, BB% between, K% between, and ISO between to find similar players…but yours is automatic, isn’t it?

3:00
Dan Szymborski: When ZiPS projects a player, it compares a player at this point in their career to every other player in my database at as close to that point in their career as possible.

3:00
Dan Szymborski: I use general cluster analysis techniques.

3:01
Dan Szymborski: And I’m a huge fan of Mahalanobis distance.

3:01
Dan Szymborski: It’s all done automatically.  I list the top 3 usually, but players are compared to a whole slew of players, so the top ones are mostly just for fun

3:01
Dan Szymborski: Because we relate to baseball by what happened before in baseball

3:01
Dan Szymborski: Sometimes the comps seem apt, sometimes they don’t

3:02
Dan Szymborski: I wish we had better pitch data for history

3:02
Dan Szymborski: I use MLBers back to 1920 and I have minor league translations going back to 1967 now.

3:03
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Re: Chili with beans isn’t chili. There was a group of people who thought that baseball wasn’t baseball if black people were allowed to play. Can’t we agree that being more inclusionary is better?

3:03
Dan Szymborski: Beans are a different species than the other ingredients.  Skin melainin doesn’t change that you are a human

3:03
Dan Szymborski: Chili allows all the colors of chili peppers.

3:03
Dan Szymborski: They just have to be chili peppers

3:03
AK: Is chili a sandwich?

3:03
Dan Szymborski: No, but you can have one

3:03
CamdenWarehouse: I cannot read that rhyme without thinking of Blazing Saddles

3:03
me: what is your stance on onions

3:04
Dan Szymborski: I love onions, just not in chili

3:04
Alex: Do you think the delta season comparison is still the best method for aging curves? I found slightly smaller average margin of error by using ratios between seasons instead

3:04
Dan Szymborski: I don’t quite do it in this manner.  ZiPS aging curves are generated on the fly from the cohort

3:04
AC000000: I’m simplifying obviously. The meat crowd is obviously correct, no such thing as vegetarian chili. Move along move along

3:04
duckrental: I think we need to see your full chili recipe

3:04
Dan Szymborski: The recipe I gave is excellent

3:04
Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: If meat alternatives become widely available, taste basically the same, and costs the same, would you stop buying real dead animals?

3:04
Dan Szymborski: If it tastes identical, like on Star Trek, I totally would.

3:05
Dan Szymborski: I’m actually personally troubled by the ethics of eating meat.  But meat just happens to be really delicious and we don’t always live up to our ethics

3:05
Not Ohtani: AL win record doesn’t impress me, let me know when you break the all time record

3:05
NtFlxAndRichHill: And does Zips also take into account height/weight?

3:05
Dan Szymborski: I’ve found the data for it sucks.

3:05
The Man With No Name: You have strict rules on chili ingredients.  What about the use of toppings (sour cream, cheese)?  Also, what about using the chili itself as a topping (hot dogs, again FRIES, corn chips)?

3:05
Dan Szymborski: Then it’s not about the chili

3:05
mikeleelop: BA project Vlad Jr at #1 and Bo Bichette at #4 for 2018 prospects. So there is some hope on the horizon for Jays fans.  Is that overly optimistic??

3:05
Dan Szymborski: They’re not hopeless

3:05
Crusty: “3 outs to goooooo?”  Not only is someone is very excited about another victory, they apparently have excellent self-control as well.

3:05
JMN: All I will say about chili is that it should require a fire extinguisher. Anything else is spaghetti sauce.

3:06
Dan Szymborski: Good chili should be like nashville hot chicken, in that it should essentially be your only meal for about 24 hours

3:06
duckrental: sarbaugh what are you doing

3:06
JMN: Willie Calhoun was in LF last night. Is that going to be a steady thing?

3:06
Dan Szymborski: Yes.

3:06
NtFlxAndRichHill: wow – this all makes you a hero to me btw

3:06
Dan Szymborski: The chili stuff?

3:06
Dan Szymborski: I don’t use the word hero lightly.

3:06
Dan Szymborski: But I am the greatest hero in American history, no doubt.

3:07
Dan Szymborski: With two exceptions.

3:07
Dan Szymborski: Bartolo

3:07
Dan Szymborski:

3:08
Dan Szymborski: and Joe West.

3:08
Dan Szymborski:

3:09
Dan Szymborski: And since I’m in an image posting jag, I’ve been laughing at this for days now.

3:09
Dan Szymborski:

3:09
Not Ohtani: Re: Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe Ingredients in food is a lot different than racism in sports.  idiot

3:09
Dan Szymborski: He was making a joke

3:09
Bobby: Are chickpeas an acceptable addition? What about corn?

3:09
Dan Szymborski: WHATS WRONG WITH YOU

3:09
Dan Szymborski: If your last name start with an S, I’m going to berate you on Steam next time you’re on

3:10
AC000000: Is a chili sandwich a sloppy Joe?

3:10
Dan Szymborski: No

3:10
Caveman Jones: Did you see that headbutt KO gave to Vince last night? Woof.

3:10
Dan Szymborski: I’m like a week behind!

3:10
AC000000: What sport is most likely to get to MLB level of advanced stats next?

3:10
Dan Szymborski: basketball’s on the way

3:10
CamdenWarehouse: 21 wins is the record, right?

3:10
Dan Szymborski: NY Giants had 26

3:10
Crusty: Szymborski:  the Paul Revere of our time.

3:11
Uncle Rico: I’m from RI and we dont put ketchup on Crab Cakes.  EVER.

3:11
Dan Szymborski: I just pick on Rhode Island because you’re small.

3:11
Crusty: Dan, why are your heroes are slightly overweight men?  Is Camryn Manheim not good enough for you? Sexist much?

3:11
Dan Szymborski: Slightly?

3:11
CamdenWarehouse: There was a tie in the middle of the 26!

3:11
Dan Szymborski: I thought baseball still counted it, no?

3:11
Dan Szymborski: Then  yeah, 21 is the record

3:11
Not chili: I hate to break it to you, but Old Bay is available in every state in the nation.

3:12
Dan Szymborski: Why would I hate that?

3:12
Dan Szymborski: It means we’re progressing as a society

3:12
CamdenWarehouse: Baseball might count it, but they’re wrong

3:12
Dan Szymborski: Good point.

3:12
Dan Szymborski: I’m not being sarcastic, MLB still thinks Ty Cobb had 4191 hits, I think

3:12
Big hen: Quick  rebuild/comeback plan for the Mets in 2018?

3:13
Dan Szymborski: Wilpons and Collins on an ice floe sent out to see.

3:13
Not chili: I put a little maple syrup in my chiki. Don’t @ me.

3:13
Babe Lincoln: After the win, from the Indian’s play-by-play guy: “It may not be a world championship, but we have just witnessed something perhaps more rare.”  No duh.

3:13
Tigers: Shout out to the Tigers for laying down and giving the Indians the AL win streak record

3:14
Dan Szymborski: OK guys, I hvae to take off.

3:14
Dan Szymborski: Thanks for joining me this week and I should see you next one!

3:14
Dan Szymborski: As a reminder, you can find my work at ESPN.com, chats and projections here at FanGraphs, at DSzymborski on Twitter.

3:15
Dan Szymborski: And for those of you on the bean chili/vegetarian chili team, I expect you to reflect on your offenses and to make proper contrition.  I better hear about hair shirts and self-flagellation or I’m going to get your IPs and have David ban you guys from 2018 ZiPS.

We hoped you liked reading Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 9/13/17 by Carson Cistulli!

Please support FanGraphs by becoming a member. We publish thousands of articles a year, host multiple podcasts, and have an ever growing database of baseball stats.

FanGraphs does not have a paywall. With your membership, we can continue to offer the content you've come to rely on and add to our unique baseball coverage.

Support FanGraphs




Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

newest oldest most voted
Brians Sticky Sock
Member
Brians Sticky Sock

I’ve been to Chicago Diner. I’ve eaten the “taco” salad… fully vegan, and vegan mozzarella sticks. With seasoning, they can get close to the correct flavor, but the textures are really weird. The “cheese” in the mozzarella sticks was really runny. They made a really good effort, but some things aren’t meant to be duplicated.