As a point of interest, the mean and median difference between wOBA and DLX for 2012 was 16 points. So I would suggest that, if a person wanted to adjust expectations down, adjust them down by 16 points.

]]>And yes, the “assuming all other rates hold” is the bigger concern for Ruggiano. I would not be surprised to see both his K% increase and his HR% decrease.

I don’t think, however, he will stabilize at a damning BABIP. He could survive some BABIP drops, but the other rates will determine his fate. That and the whims of the Marlins FO.

]]>“Justin Ruggiano is just a product of good luck and good timing.”

Not so! (He could drop 80 points of BABIP and still have a strong .347 wOBA — assuming all other rates hold.)

I certainly hope he does well, but you look at some of his stats and it screams regression. **13.5 SwStrk %! 26.3 K%!! .401 BABIP!! ** I was just wondering how far it would go. A .347 wOBA, tossed in with ~20 SBs is pretty good in our current run environment. He could be a sneaky pickup, and with the Marlins I would think he can get a full season load of PAs. It is the Marlins though, so who know. Justin already told me “he got this.”