Destination 2012: Nationals Get Gorzelanny

Yesterday, the Cubs traded superfluous lefty starter Tom Gorzelanny to the Nationals for two fringe prospects. Though the Nationals don’t look like a competitor in a tough National League East in the upcoming season, the move, coupled with other moves by the team, does seem to suggest that there’s a near-term destination in mind for the team in our nation’s capital.

The most recent pre-trade CAIRO projections have the Nationals winning only 72 games this season – improving by three wins from last year – but still not leaving the cellar. Seen in this light, it seems folly to trade prospects of any kind for a pitcher that has mostly produced confusion in his first five hundred innings as Dave Cameron so eloquently put it yesterday.

The world won’t come to an end for the Nationals system without A.J. Morris and Michael Burgess, on the other hand. Morris spent two inconspicuous years in college, striking out about five per nine at Kansas State to little fanfare. In his final year, he started 16 games, pitched 116 innings, and struck out 100 batters against 30 walks. That was enough for the Nationals, who took him in the fourth round, but 128 2/3 innings into his minor league career, he’s striking out batters at just about the same ratio (7.8 career MiLB K/9) and he doesn’t seem to own much upside. Sure, he can coax grounders, but he lacks a third pitch and, as a 23-year-old in High-A, is a little old to get excited about, especially now after a year spent relieving about half of the time. Burgess is a stocky (listed at 5’11”) 21-year-old power hitter that just reached Double-A for the first time and owns a .257/.349/.464 career minor league line built on lots of whiffs (29.4% career). He probably won’t succeed without reducing the strikeouts.

In any case, neither of these prospects is likely to be ready this season or next, and so it speaks to some sense of urgency on the Nationals. Their CAIRO projections for the season see the 2011 pitching staff, obviously affected by the loss of Stephen Strasburg, and have them giving up the most runs in the division and the third-most in the National League. The addition of Gorzelanny could be an effort to mitigate that number. Certainly Gorzelanny (3.92 2010 FIP, 4.54 career FIP) should be an upgrade over the worst of John Lannan (4.47 2010 FIP, 4.71 career FIP) or Ross Detwiler (5.64 2010 FIP, 4.33 career FIP).

But, really, how much will that win or two be worth to a team that may be the worst of a strong division? The answer – not much – may be irrelevant if the focus is 2012 and not this season. Next year, the team gets back its ace to join a more seasoned and healthy Jordan Zimmermann at the front of the rotation. They’ll also have a year’s worth of data on their uber-prospect Bryce Harper that year, and even the possibility of a late-season boost from the slugger. And, last but not least, the team will have one last year of a cheap Gorzelanny in the middle of their rotation, gobbling up innings.

Hey, if it’s not a vision that speaks to you, you are not alone. But the Nationals have seen how difficult it can be to lure top free agents to their city and their team, and this vision may just make the team a little more attractive in coming off-seasons. Just imagine it on the front of a glossy binder and part of a presentation about the future of the Nationals. Destination: 2012.



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With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.


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CircleChange11
Guest
CircleChange11

2012 is the first year where the team can start looking at competitiveness. I don’t see that as being the first year that they ARE competitive.

So many things have to go right for the Nats to be ready to be competitive in 2012 than even Cubs fans have to say “Whoa! Hold your horses …”

IMO, they should be looking at 2013 and 2014 as the years where they start “doing something” in terms of significantly increasing wins.

2012 would be the year that they see where SS and BH are, and figure out what pieces needed to be added to be a serious threat in 2013. Serious meaning that they could win the division or be within 5 wins of the leader.

I guess I’m not as optimistic on the Nats as some are, at least not in 2012.

Souldrummer
Guest

2013 is certainly the year. They expect Solis to be able to enter the rotation by then. They expect themselves not to be totally dissed by every free agent under the sun, and they will be in a position where they might be able to move better prospects like Norris or Ramos at catcher or AJ Cole or Robbie Ray to make trades with the big boys.

They will have an “if all things break right” attitude for 2012 I think and a go for the gusto a la the Brewers mentality for 2013.

CircleChange11
Guest
CircleChange11

Agreed. For 2012, if I’m a Nats fan, I’m basically crossing my fingers all year and hoping that “Superman Returns” is as good as the previews.

I try not to be, but I’m really excited about Bryce Harper. I’m far too old to buy into the hype, but I want to see this kid kick some ass.

If SS and BH are kicking butt in 2013, the Nats are going to be the “favorite team” of anyone 18 and under. They would literally be the team of generation XYZ (whatever this generation is called). The Phenoms.

If I were the Nats, I would start mapping out what 2013 might look like, and use 2011 and 2012 to acquire the supporting cast and develop them into their roles.

In that regard, to me, Gorzo is just a space saver. He’s keeping a rotation spot warm until someone better can come along and help the team.

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