Duke’s Michael Matuella Rediscovers Premium Stuff

The primary concern that scouts have about Michael Matuella is durability. So when the Duke righthander was scratched from making his second start of the season due to a forearm strain, it was a setback that led the Blue Devils training staff to keep him on strict pitch counts over his next few appearances. On Friday night against Pittsburgh, however, the reins were loosened and he showed evaluators the form that made him a candidate to be a top-five draft pick before the season began.

Before I rifle through my scouting notebook from that night, some background on how the durability concerns arose:

Matuella started just seven games as a freshman as he split time in the bullpen, then was limited to 11 starts in his sophomore campaign as he missed a month with a lat strain. This past summer and fall, he didn’t throw at all as he dealt with spondylosis (spine arthritis), a manageable condition. In the three appearances following his missed start in mid-February, he was limited to 23 pitches, 39 pitches and 63 pitches, respectively, before ramping up to 91 pitches on Friday and posting a final line of 6 1/3 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 5 Ks.

Here’s Kiley’s report on Matuella from before the season as part of his draft rankings, with pitch grades from when he saw Matuella last year, in his first start coming back from the lat strain. The first outing in the below video is from Friday (sorry about cutting off his head), and the second outing is the one Kiley saw from last spring. The stuff in Kiley’s look was basically the same as what I saw Friday, though Kiley saw him sit 94-96 mph for multiple innings, something he may do in the coming weeks at this rate.

Physical Description

At 6-foot-6, 220 pounds, Matuella carries an athletic starting pitcher’s frame with long legs and obvious strength projection in his shoulders and chest. He isn’t fast-twitch, but has adequate agility with good body control and fluid motions – especially for his size. He’ll turn 21 five days before the start of the draft, which makes him young for his class.

Stuff

In his previous starts this season, Matuella’s fastball had peaked at 95, registering between 92-94 mph in the first inning before settling at 91-92 mph after 15 pitches or so – lower velocity bands which resulted from the lingering effects of the forearm strain as well as pitching in chilly temperatures. But on Friday he returned to the velo ranges he showed last year, touching 97 and sitting 93-95 mph with his two-seam fastball through the fifth inning before ticking down to 91-92 mph as he reached the 75-pitch mark.

The first time through the lineup, he pounded fastballs to his arm side – a running theme for those who have seen any of his previous outings this season. The pitch cuts and runs more than it sinks and usually induces weak contact against college hitters, but professional pitching coaches will invariably tinker with his grip in order to make it heavier. He has fair command of it to both sides of the plate.

Matuella’s best secondary pitch is a slider, a future plus offering that registers between 79-82 mph with good rotation and sharp, two-plane break. (Despite its slower velocity and bigger shape, he calls it a slider – not a curveball.) He’s comfortable throwing it to both right-handed and left-handed hitters, although discerning batters will pick up on the slightly higher arm slot. (In the above video, the raised slot is noticeable when comparing the fastball thrown at 0:55 and the following two sliders.)

His changeup ranges between 84-86 mph and shows the makings of being at least average with similar arm speed as his fastball, although it’s a straight pitch that’s thrown with some firmness. He also mixes in a slower curveball at 75-77 mph, but it doesn’t bite consistently, lacks depth and often misses up and out of the zone as a result of getting underneath the pitch. He has a bulldog’s mentality, throwing a high percentage of fastballs and strongly favoring the slider over the changeup, but for someone with a limited history of starting, he still demonstrates a solid feel for pitching and knowledge of the pitching process.

Fastball: 60/65+, Slider: 50/60, Changeup: 40/50+, Curveball: 35/45, Command: 45/55, FV: 60

Mechanics

Matuella has a loose and low-effort delivery that allows him to hold velocity as he did against Pittsburgh. Later in the start he began overthrowing to compensate for fatigue, which resulted in several wormburners, although that can be forgiven on account of him not having thrown 75-plus pitches in six weeks.

His arm path is relatively clean and circular, although its natural length challenges repeatability. As you’d expect from someone with long levers, he gets good extension down the mound, usually staying closed as he approaches a mid-three-quarters release point, albeit with virtually no deception other than what his above-average arm speed affords him. He finishes with some instability in his glove-side plant foot, landing somewhat on the outside of it as he falls off toward first base, as well as a cross-body action that produces light recoil.

Certainly these wrinkles can be ironed out with professional instruction, as he has the requisite athleticism and aptitude to make such adjustments. But still, it’s a rotational, athletic and repeatable motion, the deficiencies of which aren’t severe enough to cause any doubt about his long-term viability as a starter.

Summation

Matuella’s combination of pure stuff, physicality and pitchability makes him a top-five talent in this draft. The big question mark of course is whether teams overlook his short track record and believe he can handle a starting pitcher’s volume. Provided no serious health complications arise from his back condition, he has a chance to develop into a frontline starter with improved control and a better changeup, offering a high floor as a rotation mainstay thanks to premium velocity and sufficient aptitude.

Other follows from these teams:

• Duke shortstop/righthander Kenny Koplove (Jr.) threw the final 1 2/3 innings as the Blue Devils clung to a 5-3 lead, striking out five while allowing just one hit. At 6-foot-2, 170 pounds, he’s slender but wiry strong, using an athletic but high-effort motion and low-three-quarters slot to sit 89-91 with a potential average slurve at 74-76. Profiling as a middle reliever, he’ll draw interest in the later rounds.

• Duke’s Andrew Istler (Sr.) didn’t pitch in this game, but I saw his start against Georgia Tech the weekend before. The 5-foot-11, 180-pound righthander offers another middle-relief profile with an 88-90 fastball and potential average slider, making him a decent senior sign at the back of the draft.

• Pittsburgh’s T.J. Zeuch (So.), a 6-foot-7, 225-pound righthander, started opposite Matuella. He threw downhill from his three-quarters slot with low effort, sitting 89-91 with a crisp slider and promising changeup. Drafted in the 31st round by the Royals in 2013, he’s a high follow for 2016 who could become part of the first-round conversation with a velo uptick.