Eno Sarris Baseball Chat — 1/11/18

1:28
Eno Sarris: god I love the Hammond organ

12:01
Chad: The Giants’ outfield woes aren’t exaggerated, are they?

12:01
Eno Sarris: 1.4 win projection for the whole outfield. Worst in the big leagues. By almost a win behind the Royals. And it’s all in a bounce back from Pence, who looked pretty toasty last year.

12:02
Chris : The Mets need to shake this roster up. Would a Lagares/Wheeler/Nimmo for Herrera and Merrifield be doable? At least start the conversation.

12:03
Eno Sarris: I’d like them to keep Nimmo, but this would be interesting. They still need an infielder, and I’m not sure how much they have left to spend.

12:03
Mark: ENO! It’s still like a month until mock drafting on Yahoo! Where can I get my fix?

12:03
Eno Sarris: Couchmanagers maybe?

12:03
Yo my dude: Thoughts on Mike Minor as a starter? How would they rank for you next to guys likeJC Ramirez and Patrick Corbin?

12:03
Eno Sarris: I *might* take Corbin first, but him and Minor are in the same ballpark. I think I’m out on Ramirez. He tried throwing the slider almost as much as his fastball and was still supermeh.

12:04
Jeb: So is Cole going to actually be traded sometime soon?

12:04
Eno Sarris: Lot of smoke here.

12:04
chief: How do you feel about the Mets’ bullpen? I’ve read articles stating it as both a weakness and a strength.

12:07
Eno Sarris: I think a lot depends on Familia. He dropped velo last year and is coming off a significant injury. If he’s okay, then they have a legit three-headed monster at the back with Swarzak and Ramos, and each has fairly different skills, which I take as good. There’s some weakness behind the three, but Robles has some ability and Montero might be able to become a good reliever. Blevins is a good lefty.

12:07
Bork: So what’s a normal day for Eno like at say, 7-8 am?

12:07
Eno Sarris: Bedlam. Yelling. Pleading.

12:07
Blackburn: Chances Cole, Cutch, and/or Harrison are all traded this winter?

12:08
Eno Sarris: Better than two thirds on each, but that still means all three isn’t super likely.

12:08
capconstrained: Dodgers, Astros and Yankees have the longest WS windows.  Sox, Cubs, Indians and Nationals have 1-2 years before their windows close.  Agree or Disagree?

12:09
Eno Sarris: Indians and Cubs and Sox maybe have a bit longer, IMO. I guess the Indians start losing pitchers, but they’ve been very good at developing pitchers, so I wonder if they won’t find some new ones. Cubs and Sox have good position players and money.

12:10
Anon: Yelich for Clint Frazier, Aarin Hicks, Estevan Florial, and a low minors pitching prospect.  Who says no?

12:10
Eno Sarris: Apparently the Yankees are trying very hard not to trade Florial. That might pry him loose, but I think they’d rather save chips for pitchers.

12:10
Sparhawk: If you were the Braves would you fill your RF/LF spot with Yelich (very costly), Clint Frazier (medium cost) or Brett Phillips (lowest cost)?

12:11
Eno Sarris: I would not trade for Phillips. Swing seems messed up to me. Yelich is an interesting pickup to me, if they think they can identify some prospects that the Marlins will overvalue.

12:11
Timmuh in the PHL: Is King Felix done?  Or do you think he can rebound at all?  Picked him up late in an NFBC draft recently (in round 18 as a roll of the dice).  On a side note, will be visiting my brother in Santa Cruz in a few months … any good breweries to visit in that area?

12:12
Eno Sarris: Think he can be a league average type, back end starter for a bit, but for more I’d like to know what his velo is this spring. Gotta go to Sante Adairius in Capitola when you’re there, they are world class.

12:12
Josh: Am I nuts for seeing Bruce as an excellent value for the Mets?  A lot of people seem to be upset by this deal but I’m a big fan.

12:14
Eno Sarris: It’s definitely not a really bad deal. It’s only three years long, and if they have to swallow a year and $13m that won’t hurt the team. Is it a great deal? Dunno. You can maybe say that position adjustments for corner guys are a little off, and he’ll get another win, and ZiPs likes Bruce more than Steamer, but I’d probably put his over under on wins around 4, which means it’s a fine deal.

12:14
Eno Sarris: *wins in three years

12:15
Corey: I’ve been looking at pitch sequencing data and am curious about your opinion on one aspect of it. Between changing eye level and changing distance from the hitter (as in “x-position” parallel to the plate), which do you feel has more impact on a hitter?

12:15
Eno Sarris: I’d guess X. The Pirates had a famous finding about inside pitches followed by outside ones.

12:15
Eno Sarris: And Beltre told me that by looking for pitches up, pitches down looked much worse and were easier to lay off of.

12:16
resumeman: Thoughts on James Kaprieleian(sp?)? Is he worth keeping as a prospect in a Scoresheet keeper league? He’d cost probably my 33rd or 34th pick. Thanks!

12:16
Eno Sarris: Absolutely worth it. Big arm. People get TJ, not the end of the world.

12:16
Minty: What kind of power/speed numbers are you expecting from Ozzie this year? I want to buy in but worry about adjustments.

12:17
Eno Sarris: Dude makes adjustments. Heady, energetic, 1-to-1 GB to FB, patience, contact, and speeeeeed. I WOULD DO ANYTHING FOR ALBIES

12:17
aj: NL Champion prediction?

12:17
Eno Sarris: Nationals

12:18
Slapshot: What’s your take on the terms of that Jay Bruce to the Mets deal?  Also, do they actually run with Cespedes in left, Conforto in center, and Bruce in right if they can all stay healthy?

12:18
Eno Sarris: Conforto not ready for the start of the season so I’m guessing Bruce / nimmo&lagares / Yo to start, and a month for Dom Smith to be better before Bruce goes to first.

12:18
Babe Lincoln: I know we can’t quantify clubhouse presence, leadership, etc.  So how should we factor intangibles when we think about contracts (e.g. Bruce)?

12:19
Eno Sarris: I think it’s worth more on the big contracts than the little ones. The Mets clubhouse atmosphere was poor even though Granderson was Mr. Presence — I just don’t think that everyone was looking to the ‘okay veteran’ to set the tone. Your top two guys lead.

12:20
botchatheny: if you love a hammond you must love jimmy smith, eh?? –

12:20
Eno Sarris: should we have a hammond day?

12:21
cardsjason: Would you add a left fielder if you were the Astros? Who would you target?

12:21
Eno Sarris: Derek Fisher projects to be league average basically, and Marwin can play there. I think it’s something you’re okay with until July, and you look who’s out there at the deadline for cheapish.

12:21
HDosFTW: Who’s more likely to take the next step towards ace-dom: Chris Archer or Carlos Martinez?

12:22
Eno Sarris: Martinez younger, trusts more of his pitches.

12:22
Rick: I found out the other day that Parker Bridwell was in the 95th percentile in vertical break. Every single one of his pitches is above average to elite in that particular area. He is also in the 66th and 72nd percentiles in location and low rise, respectively.

12:24
Eno Sarris: I don’t see that at all. Brooks has 9.3 for his 4s ride, 9 is average. Curve is -3, below average. Cutter is 6, below average. changeup movement way below average in both quadrants. I’d say he has a decent curveball, boring fastballs, and okay command.

12:24
Jeremy: RE: your article about neuroscience. Do you see this research being more useful for scouting and identifying players with a certain skillset, or for developing the skillset of players already in your organization?

12:25
Eno Sarris: Obviously the hardware stuff is important, but if you’re talking about scouting other team’s players or before the draft, I don’t think that’s going to happen. Internal scouting? Maybe. But if you’re doing it internally, you might as well try to develop them all, and developing the software is where I’d personally be more interested.

12:25
adam: i miss the idea of smash mouth

12:25
Eno Sarris: but not the actual smash mouth

12:27
Alec Asher Wojciechowski: This seems to be lost in the Astros pursuit of a starter,  but isn’t Collin McHugh a pretty darn good pitcher? Are the Astros expecting one of their starters to start the year on the DL or something?

12:28
Eno Sarris: Teams need a ton of pitchers, they’ve got some veteran starters that have been hurt recently, and McHugh is 30 with some history of homer problems… plus Peacock might go in the trade and keep McHugh right where he is.

12:29
Magic 8 Ball: Can trades be one-way other than salary relief? For instance, could the Dodgers package Kemp with a high prospect or two with the Dodgers only getting salary relief?

12:29
Eno Sarris: Touki Touissant went for cash. Yes.

12:30
Bryan: Do you think the cold stove is due to teams being more fiscally conservative?  Or front offices being more analytically minded when regarding the “peak” years of a player and wanting to pay players for their future and not their past performance?

12:32
Eno Sarris: Let me rank the reasons I see:
1) 3/4 top teams trying to reset luxury tax penalties and not jumping in with their considerable resources
2) not the most amazing free agency period, probably at least partially brought on by the trend of buying out free agency years in young player extensions
3) some gathering of talent at the top and separation between haves and have nots
4) ongoing ‘coming together’ of analytics capabilities of the different teams
5) ongoing reticence to pay for post peak years.

12:32
Eno Sarris: I put 4) and 5) where they are because they’re ongoing and I”m not sure why they’d be a huge change from last year.

12:33
Jimmers: Hypothetical: If the yankees sign Darvish and every starter stays healthy, what do they do? With Severino, Gray, Tanaka, CC, Montgomerry, and Darvish. Do they all make 27 starts? (Obviously, chances are some will get hurt)

12:34
Eno Sarris: Montgomery goes to minors to start, CC to long relief if he flags, or JMont up to replace injury guys.

12:34
adam: Sandwiches require a sauce.  I’ll hear no arguments to the contrary.

12:34
Eno Sarris: Does need something wet, definitely a goal every time, but I’ll settle on aoli.

12:34
Jim: If the Rays convert Eovaldi to a RP, how does his stuff translate?

12:34
Eno Sarris: 100 mph with a 90 mph splitter? Well.

12:34
Matt: Anything pointing to a Kepler breakout this year?

12:35
Eno Sarris: Not really. He doesn’t hit the ball that hard, and his homers are all pulled straight down the line. He’s 24, so I guess age says the arrow is pointing up.

12:35
Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: If we’re talking about blind baseball players, in addition to making a dozen variants of the same joke about umpires, you might also learn about Beep Baseball, an adaptation of the game for the visually-impaired. http://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/21356616/beep-baseball-wor…

12:35
Eno Sarris: Mind. blown.

12:35
E: Ever dabble in Brew Kettle’s White Rajah IPA?

12:36
Eno Sarris: Of course! Very good fresh.

12:36
Jim: Where do you expect Chris Archer and Gerrit Cole to be pitching when the season starts?

12:36
Eno Sarris: LA and Houston?

12:36
James: What do you think is going down with the Astros and Cole?

12:36
Eno Sarris: regular ole haggling.

12:38
Eno Sarris:

12:38
Ros: Alright Eno, as the primary backer of Albies. Who do you like for the next 5 years: Albies or Moncada?

12:38
Eno Sarris: Albies for me. Give me contact. Put that ball in play, good things will happen.

12:38
Hannah Hochevar: If your neuroscience is so smart, what am I thinking right now?

12:39
SideProjectis#1: Drank an SR-71 from Toppling Goliath the other day. It was good, but no where near worth trading what takes to get one. That’s all.

12:39
R: Jerry Blevins was sooo good against lefties last year. ~1.50 FIP

12:40
Eno Sarris: Baseball beer neuroscience interlude?

12:40
Jake: How would you tell a league you have just joined to stop sending you the most BS of offers?

12:40
Eno Sarris: Make good offers yourself and swat em off? It won’t go over well to yell at a new league.

12:40
Anon: How many baseball players have you seen bottomless?

12:41
Eno Sarris: … wanted to say many, but not that many. I’m in there during mostly mixed company, in a private moment that’s actually fairly public.

12:41
Andy: Mets OF is full.  Any chance they deal Lageres for a Kolton Wong style 2B?  Not super flashy, but decent.  Fits the whole ‘pay for players just above replacement level’ thing they’ve got going on

12:42
Eno Sarris: Needs to get his bat back closer to league average to have much trade value.

12:43
Doug: Which is more likely: Albert Pujols has a strong bounceback or Shohei Ohtani is an above average MLB hitter?

12:43
Eno Sarris: I’ll take the young one.

12:43
Eno Sarris: Pujols looked like Bobby Cox rounding the bases at times.

12:44
Desperate, confused Marlins fan: Anything you like from Daniel Norris?

12:44
Eno Sarris: fastball velocity and all three of his secondaries. what I don’t like? command, sequencing, fastball movement. first two seem like he could alter them and still be decent.

12:45
Clay Achin’: I’ve got the opportunity to keep Matt “September Reign” Olson at $10 this year in a 5×5 standard mixed league. Worth it?  WWED?

12:45
Eno Sarris: Yeah, he’s going to hit 35+ homers. Not sure about the BA I guess.

12:45
tacopocket: thanks again for the chats.  you’re rated #1 on my fangraphs power rankings.  sporer is #2 but the gap is pretty significant.

12:46
Eno Sarris: I’ll be sure to pass that info along to Sporer lol.

12:46
Oddball Herrera: I am starting to think that some beat writers have on the sly replaced themselves with bots that simply post “Player X is in contact with multiple teams” to Twitter every couple hours

12:47
WormsleyCommonGang: You loved Cotton last year. 2 things – Thoughts on Cotton 2018 and who is your crush this year?

12:48
Eno Sarris: Hoping he throws the fastball high instead of middle and low, he had a very large gap between xWOBA and wOBA, and created a lot of soft contact. Still have some dollar love for Cotton. I know Zimm doens’t agree with me, but Lucas Sims has good secondaries and I don’t think his command and fastballs are all that bad.

12:49
Davoink Showerhandel: Astros gonna cycle all their pitchers through the 10-day DL just like the Dodgers did last year, right?  In addition Keuchel, JV, Morton, McHugh, McCullers, (not to mention possible Cole), they also have Musgrove, Feliz, Martes, and Peacock who can all conceivably make starts.  Thinking I gotta bump innings projections for their SP accordingly

12:49
Eno Sarris: For most SP, but yeah.

12:49
DeeGee: Building off your mets bullpen comments–i could see at least one of Lugo, Gsellman, and Wheeler excelling in a “Peacock” role if they acquired some more SP depth

12:49
Eno Sarris: Yes, the first two in particular seem well suited for the role.

12:49
Concrete Fan: A donkey drinking beer or a chicken drinking champagne?

12:49
Eno Sarris: …

12:49
Yants from Fort Myers: Have you ever blown your nose and not looked at it?

12:50
Eno Sarris: Of course, when you’re like in day four and you’re tired as hell of being sick and it’s the middle of the night

12:50
Beni and the Betts: In all seriousness, is someone else gonna do the trade value list this year or will it just disappear?

12:50
Eno Sarris: There will be a trade value list!

12:50
Davoink Showerhandel: I recently traded for Brad Hand.  What are the odds I get 30 saves out of that?  Can you pry some insider info from DC on that?

12:51
Eno Sarris: Doubt you get 30 because I bet he’s traded at deadline, but you might get great numbers and 20!

12:51
Daniel Castro: Still waiting on my writeup, my man! #LetCastroMash

12:51
Edison: What are the odds that the cold stove is due to teams holding their money for Kakie Bryan?

12:51
The CL: What does a DH’s lack of defensive play mean for fWAR? Is it just “zeroed out?” Is there a penalty? Educate me, sir.

12:52
Eno Sarris: There’s a tough penalty. It might be overly tough, though, because there’s some evidence that DHing is a skill that not everyone has.

12:52
Greg: What is a realistic expectation for Aledmys Diaz this year? There’s some speculation that he may begin the season in the minors for the Blue Jays

12:53
Eno Sarris: If he has options, that might be what they do. Try to get him back on a roll before brining him up.

12:53
Hannah Hochevar: Do you also love Jeffrey Hammonds jr?

12:53
Eno Sarris: I remember getting a rookie card of his and being so excited.

12:54
Davoink Showerhandel: With Kipnis going back to 2B, Does that mean Ramirez at 3B, Brantley-Chisenhall-Zimmer OF?  or Ramirez to OF, Yandy Diaz at 3B and Brantley DH?

12:54
Eno Sarris: Sorry to weasel out, but Brantley’s health decides this. He’s been hurt every which way.

12:54
Bryan: Jay Bruce’s improvement was more on defense than offense. Is that sustainable?

12:55
Eno Sarris: His statcast defensive stats are better off than his UZR type ones. It’s possible he’s not as bad as his UZR.

12:55
Literally Altuve: Isn’t picking the Nationals to win the NL Championship kinda like Charlie Brown going in to kick the football again?

12:56
Eno Sarris: True story: I had a recurring dream that I was Charlie Brown when I was young. Had to actually do some lucid dreaming to get out of it. So, now i just re-enact that stuff in my real life.

12:57
SparkyMcguffy: How many leagues can I join this year without ruining my marriage?

12:57
Eno Sarris: I pushed 15 before we had a big talk.

12:57
Wade boggs’ head:

12:58
Eno Sarris: Oh I thought you were talking Lonnie “One Great Year” Smith.

12:58
sp13: I’m not familiar with the internal workings of ZIPS, but is there an accompanying standard deviation or some measure of uncertainty that could be published with the team win projections? Something more useful than the +/- 0 that the reactionary headlines assume? Would that number vary much from team to team?

12:59
Eno Sarris: Not sure about the team to team variance. I’ve seen the line that team projections have a +/- 5 win standard deviation, which is pretty big, considering an 81 win team can win 90 without it being a big deal.

1:00
Billy Beane: Does Sean Manaea have more upside or is he just a good, but not great lefty?

1:00
Eno Sarris: With that whiff rate, I think better sequencing, command, and health (perhaps the last will lead to the second), he could strike more guys out and have a couple really nice peak years.

1:00
Brewf: Albies vs Devers?

1:00
Eno Sarris: God I love Devers too, but Albies more tools.

1:01
45 wanksohard: Cueto and Samardzalphabet a good piece of business for SF or a debacle waiting to happen/continue?

1:02
Eno Sarris: Samardzija is fine most years. Cueto is the high variance guy. Either the reason they limp into post Bum and Posey future or the reason they have a last hurrah or two.

1:02
botchatheny: here’s bernie worrell w/ claypool and buckethead –

1:04
tacopocket: Your guess as to where moustakas lands?

1:05
Eno Sarris: he’s screwed. Mets are the only win-now team that could use him unless the Cardinals or Brewers surprise. You’re not looking at a trio of big spenders.

1:06
Jakob: Hard agree with your piece for The Athletic that the A’s won’t (and shouldn’t) extend Khrush Davis. But do you really think they’ll swoop late on a Lorenzo Cain or Alex Cobb type?

1:06
Eno Sarris: Only piece I can’t figure out is if they’ll got to $80 million with rev sharing income going away.

1:06
Sandy Ravage: Do you think Maikel Franco can bounce back? Should be in a better line up this year, very low BABIP last year, still only 25. Thoughts?

1:07
Eno Sarris: I dunno sometimes it feels like I’m the last guy that has hope for Franco.

1:07
Roadhog: Even under the assumption the A’s are cutting payroll, they’ve got 15-20 million sitting around, for the forsee able future

1:07
Eno Sarris: Yes, probably, and in a good position to make a February signing. Except for that rev sharing thing.

1:08
Nervous Ottoneu Owner: What are your thoughts on Paul DeJong for next season? The high strikeout rate and low walk rate scares me, but the allure or a 30 HR ceiling for a SS is nice too.

1:08
Eno Sarris: I think his floor is probably not playing.

1:08
Rick C: er, just Gosselin.  No cash.

1:08
Eno Sarris: huh. Well, I misremembered that trade, but you can still trade a guy for ‘cash considerations’ which seems like the title for a rap song.

1:09
tacopocket: I’m at 51st and 6th in NYC….what should I have for lunch?

1:09
Eno Sarris: Damn I used to live there. All those Thai places on 8th are good, and there’s a good falafel truck closer to you, forget exactly which one though.

1:10
DTW: Miggy and Castellanos have one of the best statistical profiles from last year if we used StatCast alone. I know this is just data from objective sensors, but any chance some type of error accounts for why they didn’t live up to the expectations we might have from the batted ball data alone? What are other explanations? Luck?

1:10
Eno Sarris: Have you checked again recently? Because they made an update to correct some indications that the exit velo gun was hot in Detroit, I think. Also, I’ve seen some research that shows that Comerica is bigger than listed.

1:11
Matt: I might have an opportunity to swap one Eno favorite (Walker Buehler) for another (Ozzie Albies) in dynasty. Can you decide amongst your children!?

1:11
Eno Sarris: TAKE THE HITTER

1:12
WormsleyCommonGang: Sandwiches do not require a sauce. A plain bologna and cheese is a sandwich.

1:12
Eno Sarris: *good* sandwiches.

1:12
BTinVT: Cargo goes off part of August all of last September after seeing a sleep therapist and changing his grip. Do you think that bodes well for 2018 even outside of Coors?

1:13
Eno Sarris: Here’s an interesting ‘huh’ — both he and Bruce are basically projected to be worth a win. He’ll go for less than Bruce because last year is more important than the years before and also because we pay too close attention to last year, but I’m coming around on the idea of signing CarGo to a pillow contract.

1:13
E: IPA freshness, how long after bottling does it lose it’s freshness? Any tips for bottles that don’t have a bottled date on them?

1:15
Eno Sarris: Three months is fine, you want closer, especially for NEIPA, but three months is okay. I try not to buy ones without dates, but if I do, I look for two things: dust/velocity (are there a lot of bottles behind it, has it been there for a while, is it on the shelf vs in the cooler) and release dates (some beers are limited releases and couldn’t have come out a long time ago).

1:15
WormsleyCommonGang: The feeling over here in Red Sox territory is that the Red Sox suck and are awful – which baffles me.

1:15
Eno Sarris: They won 93 and needed power and power is the easiest thing to buy right now.

1:18
ATCQ: Hey Eno, it’s my 23rd birthday today.  Any recs for a birthday beer, upstate NY (vicinity of Albany/Schnectady/Troy) to celebrate?

1:19
Eno Sarris: Gotta go get a whiskey barrel aged porter from Brown’s! Happy birthday!!

1:19
Coz: Why are players using their agent’s shower?

1:20
Eno Sarris: More and more often, agents are now required to be full service — they’re doing analytics and player development more now. I didn’t know that meant showering at their place, but it’s a brand new world.

1:20
Grease Lightning: If I can’t write for The Athletic, how can I become an Athletic supporter?

1:21
Eno Sarris: Like… a jock strap? Sorry sorry sorry. sorry. Uh, not sure what you mean. You can subscribe! I think they’ll be rolling out more baseball ideas this year as they get going.

1:21
Billy Beane: Sandiches don’t always require a sauce, adam. It depends on what’s in the sandwich. You telling me you need to put a sauce on egg salad or tuna salad? Get in the game, bro.

1:21
Eno Sarris: hot sauce.

1:21
WormsleyCommonGang: I can’t help but fall in love with the Calhoun and Olson projections.

1:22
Eno Sarris: Popups are an interesting asterisk, but I’m not sure I’m all that worried, particularly if I can get them for cheap.

1:22
Dr. Funk: Work conference in Orlando (not Disney) any beer recommendations?   I don’t hear much about Orlando beers, worse case is I seek out some jai alai

1:23
Eno Sarris: Just had some good stuff from Crooked Can while I was down there! Try to find Funky Buddha too

1:23
WormsleyCommonGang: Bottom of the chat it shows a blurb about you. It has a mistake.

“@enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.”

1:24
Eno Sarris: inanity: lack of sense or meaning; silliness.

1:24
tacopocket: why is everyone panicking about how to handle otani?  Why wouldn’t they just give him dual eligibility with pitcher being one of those positions.   when you play him as a pitcher – his hitting stats don’t count…just like it’s managed now.   If the issue is other pitchers not having hitter eligibility – give them DH eligibility…..who’s going to use them when they don’t pitch?   the idea of having 2 otanis in the draft pool is absurd.

1:25
Eno Sarris: The problem is that the player pools and scoring are handled completely separately and the larger, older platforms would require a lot of work under the hood for a guy that may not be all that playable as a hitter. The smaller platforms have an easier time making him one guy that can be played at pitcher or hitter, and for the most part, they’re doing that.

1:26
Woad Raider: Does Hanley get traded? Who would take him and what could he do?

1:26
Eno Sarris: Doubt he has any trade value.

1:26
Chico: Manny Margot improve over 2017? Are you bullish or bearish for next year and beyond?

1:27
Eno Sarris: He improved his launch angle in the second half more than almost anyone in baseball. Second I think. I think he’ll go 20/20 next year.

1:27
E: Think Ronald Acuna breaks camp with the Braves?

1:27
Eno Sarris: No but he’ll be magically ready in July

1:28
2-D: Is this hammond?

1:28
Eno Sarris: oh man it’s close and that’s funny

1:28
Clay Achin’: any discussion about putting a little more cash behind the Sleeper/Bust podcast? It’s my bible all season but (not to harp—I truly love it and appreciate all the work you guys do) the production value could be improved. Would probably make sponsorship more likely, too, I suspect. MUCH love. Just wondering.

1:28
Eno Sarris: We brought on a producer, have you listened recently? Still some problems?

1:29
Rays Delays: When do we see Honeywell? Is the screwball a cause for injury concern long term? Is his upside studly or more two-ish?

1:29
Eno Sarris: I think Braden would say it is an injury risk — he said Dr Andrews said he’d never seen a shoulder like his — but maybe the Cotton, Faria, and Honeywell don’t pronate as much as Braden did. It’ll be interesting to watch all three.

1:30
Not Grey Albright: Did you see the Kevin Gausman is a 2018 sleeper post on another website today? Regardless, do you agree with the sentiment? The whiff rates on the splitter and slider were sexy in the second half…finally the year?

1:30
Eno Sarris: We’ve had a couple of those pieces, and he’s starting to get so much sleeper love he might get pushed past a reasonable price. I did always think he needed a breaker and finally he might have one.

1:30
v2micca: Earlier this week I slammed my knee into a bedpost.  This morning in the gym I dropped a 45 lbs weight on my foot.  Now, I’m coming down with a cold.  Is this what being a Mets Player feels like?

1:31
Eno Sarris: #lolmets will never die.

1:31
Loup: One time in Shreveport a few of us benchwarmers stayed out all night drinking at a sushi place next to the team hotel. Since none of us expected to play we went large. Cut to next day, game 2 of double header and we’re getting dusted. All of us on the field for the last 3 innings trying to hold it down. Pop up in no mans land shallow LF and it drops between two of us sake smelling slouches. None of us vomited…on the field, and it became the most impressive performance of our college careers.

1:31
Eno Sarris: Maikel Franco esque!

1:31
ryan: why do i remember benito santiago being so much better than his career WAR would suggest? does your neuroscience explain that one??

1:32
Eno Sarris: We don’t have framing numbers in there, he did his thing when power was everywhere, and you can’t put a number on his awesome quotes and stances behind the plate.

1:33
Corey: Yandy Diaz owns a .373 OBP projection from Steamer, puts him ahead of Correa, Turner, Betts, Altuve. How?!

1:33
Eno Sarris: They started including exit velocity in projections?

1:33
Eno Sarris: I mean, I know they did, but I don’t know if that explains it all.

1:33
Jeff: Tim Anderson still can’t take a walk and his fielding regressed in 2017. Should I be worried?

1:34
Eno Sarris: He had a tough year — best friend died — and that won’t be part of his game when he’s good. I think he’ll be an aggressive hitter with power and contact and good defense, but never very patient.

1:34
Justin: How much stock do you put into starting pitching WAR?

1:35
Eno Sarris: I think, other than defense, it’s where we have the most work to do.

1:35
tacopocket: I’m gonna need your phone number if you don’t answer my keeper question cuz I haven’t slept in weeks

1:36
Brad: Lonnie Smith was 35 war player.  really good hitter.

1:36
Eno Sarris: and like more than half came in three years.

1:36
Eno Sarris: 8 in one year!

1:36
Sonny: tacopocket backwards is tek cop taco

1:36
Saber wannabe: To what degree does each pitcher contribute to pitch framing numbers. In other words, do certain pitchers get enough breaks over the year to move the needle a bit? Keuchel probably makes his catchers look good.

1:36
Eno Sarris: That’s included in DRA and the BP suite of framing metrics!

1:37
tacopocket: not sure about everyone else but i get way too excited to see that blue message pop up on the screen

1:37
Shawn : Preferred taco option – street (corn tortilla, onion & cilantro) or the wrong way (flour tortilla, lettuce, cheese)

1:37
Eno Sarris: used to be wrong but then I moved back to Cali

1:37
Roger: Next time u go to MLB network studios, will u please poke Mad Dog in the chest and call him a clown?

1:37
Eno Sarris: The best was when Andy McCullough asked him “why are you yelling at me.”

1:37
Magic 8 Ball:

1:37
Eno Sarris: kings of the hammond

1:37
Dave Kingman: Fantasy thoughts on N. Castellanos for the upcoming season? Have him as a cheap keeper option and thinking his 25HR & 100 RBI at 3rd is pretty good at that position.

1:37
Eno Sarris: Last year at third, probably, not sure if there’s much ceiling left.

1:38
ATCQ: Re: Moose – Yankees?

1:39
Eno Sarris: They only have like $12 million to spend. Bet he wants more than the Bruce deal.

1:39
Babe Lincoln: 51/6th: go to Omar’s on 54th street. Best middle eastern food around

1:39
Daniel: Bronson Arroyo and Toukki for Gosselin.  Bronson was injured, ie: cash component.

1:40
Eno Sarris: Oh phew I knew there was a cash part.

1:40
Billy: Seems to me everybody wants to count out Robert Gsellman? Still see promise there or not?

1:40
Eno Sarris: Great sinker, ave cutter, bad change. Change showed a bit of promise in second half. I think he’ll be a reliever.

1:40
WormsleyCommonGang: Tell Tacopocket to goto House of Brews

1:40
Eno Sarris: I used to go there! and Pony Bar but Pony Bar over there is shut down I think.

1:41
Dan: Not that I don’t love it, but why/how is B*r*ck Ob*m* speaking at Sloan this year? Also, if you could have a local beer with B*rry O in Boston, what would it be?

1:41
Eno Sarris: It’s pretty cool, and I would love to see him at Night Shift.

1:41
Beer: Thoughts on session IPA’s? Just a weak, cheap IPA/

1:42
Eno Sarris: Just had a Melvin MPA, which is basically that. 10/10 nose, good taste, crisp, and I can have a couple and still be on top of the kids.

1:42
Eno Sarris: not like literally

1:42
Kyle: What are your favorite widely-available NEIPAs?

1:43
Eno Sarris: will report back after trying the Sierra Nevada ones, but the only really widely-available ones I know of are the Mikkeller ones, and some are really good (some aren’t). I see Brouwerij West and love most of theirs, but that’s just California. NorthEast obviously sees a ton.

1:43
WormsleyCommonGang: They won 93 two years in a row now – with power (Ortiz) and without (2017). They are a great team still.

1:43
Not Boston: The feeling over here is Red Sox fans are impossible

1:43
DTW: re: StatCast gun being hot… Who owns that equipment – MLB or team? Are teams required to calibrate their equipment (ie pitching radar gun) to some standard?

1:44
Eno Sarris: Trackman owns it, I think the teams take care of it with trackman.

1:44
Jason: Regarding the market being so backed up… Aren’t these FA’s taking a chance that more trades go down and eliminate possible landing spots?  For example, Longo gets traded to San Francisco – that was certainly a possible landing spot for Moustakas.

1:44
Eno Sarris: They chose Longo because they are trying to avoid the lux tax and got him for basically no salary (replaced Span).

1:45
Uncle Rico: Going to SF in June for a long weekend.  What are 5 things I HAVE to do??   I’m down for whatever

1:47
Eno Sarris: hmm, walk through the mission, have a burrito at papalotes, watch people in dolores park, ice cream at bi-rite, beer at toronados. That’s one afternoon. On the way to a game: City Beer Store, Cellarmaker. I think walking the Embarcadero is worth it — nice views, and one of the piers has excellent food and shopping.

1:47
Eno Sarris: if not game, go to SF MOMA and beer store and cellarmaker.

1:47
adam: re: sauce

i said I’d hear no arguments.  good day sir.  I said good day.

1:47
PD: Other than Mussina and Black Jack McDowell, who has Stanford produced? Ed Sprague Jr? So many failed prospects like Hammonds Jr, Borchard, Elway…

1:48
Eno Sarris: BISCOTTY. LOWRIE. HINCH. They’ve done okay, not great, but okay.

1:48
Barry Badrinath: Sitting in a soil chemistry class wondering if Justin Smoak will be swinging in the dirt (soil) at curve balls again, or if his last year is something that is sustainable.

1:49
Eno Sarris: Is very interesting about Alonso vs Smoak. Alonso a bit more mechanical, Smoak more discipline based. I don’t know why but I float a bit more towards mechanical, but my article today does suggest that PD can be improved.

1:49
Stumped in Texas:

1:49
Dan: I would argue tuna/egg salad come pre-sauced.  So, there is inherently sauce on the sandwich when you eat it.

1:49
Jonathan: Bruce is a fine signing, but I was really intigued if Nimmo could be a Yelich-lite. Do you still see that kind of upside for him?

1:49
Eno Sarris: Very good plate discipline. All about if he develops more power.

1:50
Bort: Is this the year that Mazara finally lives up to the hype?

1:50
Eno Sarris: I really like him. He has a two-strike approach when nobody else does. I could see .300/30 from him this year or next, no problem.

1:51
Big Joe Mufferaw: Cant see Moose taking a pillow deal with Yankees? He could pop 40 in that stadium

1:51
Eno Sarris: I don’t see him needing to take a pillow deal, coming off his best season.

1:51
Stumped in Texas: The BEST jazz Hammond Organ player i know of

1:52
Rich : Gregory Polanco – chronic shoulder issues. Vague. Is this always going to bother him? Any reason for optimism that he stays healthy and goes 20-20?

1:52
Eno Sarris: That and the hammies worry me.

1:52
Sonny: Medeski Martin & Wood had like a monthly gig at a club in Providence when I was a kid and this old hippie used to come in every morning to the coffee shop where I worked to tell me how many days until the show and give me burned CDs. He was nice.

1:52
Edgar: What’s your trust level in Thor this year?  What do expect out of him?

1:53
Eno Sarris: He’ll be an ace. For…. 150 innings?

1:53
Uncle Rico: Thoughts on Teoscar Hernandez for a full season?

1:54
Eno Sarris: Giddyap. I can see projecting him for a low BA because you don’t project rookies into high BABIPs, but there’s a chance he can rake his way to .260/30 with some steals.

1:54
Reeses Pieces: Expectations for Puk/Holmes this year?

1:55
Eno Sarris: If the A’s are good, they’re up to replace some of the back end starters as they get pushed to the pen. If the A’s are bad, they spend most of year in the minors as the team tries to pump some trade value out of the starters they have.

1:55
AWS: Best place to get ADP data at this point on the calendar?

1:55
Eno Sarris: NFBC

1:55
Brad: I met Lonnie Smith in 1982.  At the Vet in Philly.  He was my favorite player.  My older brother’s knew a close friend of Lonnie Smith and arranged for me to meet him after a game.  I got to meet him and choked up – couldn’t get a word out.

1:55
Sonny: Do you have a rough estimate of when you’ll cede physical dominance of your household to your children?

1:55
Eno Sarris: I remember blocking my father in volleyball when I was like 17 and he was 37 and he was so mad.

1:56
Eno Sarris: oops I guess he was like 45

1:56
Chico: When Uncle Rico says “I’m down for whatever,” it’s best to just leave I think

1:56
Dub: mayo is the sauce in egg and tuna salad obviously

1:56
botchatheny: to do in SF: don’t forget the mitchell brothers live sex theater!

1:56
Eno Sarris: uh

1:56
7/10 Sandwich: Have you been to Deli Board in SF? Great sangwiches

1:56
Eno Sarris: somehow… i have not.

1:57
Eno Sarris: i will rectify that shortly.

1:57
Reeses Pieces: Who cares about sauce on sandwiches? The true heathens are those who don’t put sour cream in burritos

1:57
Eno Sarris: I don’t put sour cream in my burritos.

1:57
Mike: Stanford: Carlos Quentin too. And Jim Lonborg and Bob Boone if you want to go older.

1:57
Eno Sarris: Quentin of course. and now Cal Quantrill is coming!

1:57
Joe: Keep Mazara for $10 in a points league over someone like Sonny Gray for $6?

1:57
Eno Sarris: I would.

1:57
Dan: Of the FA’s who are left, who are the domino guys (if any)?  Guys who need to get signed before others follow suit.  Darvish and Cain?

1:58
Eno Sarris: Probably just Yu or Arrieta.

1:58
Rich : Sorry, is there a website or websites we can go to help us evaluate pitchers better. Type of pitches they throw, how often, how effective, etc?

1:58
Eno Sarris: At FanGraphs, we have type of pitches they throw, and should have the results on pitch types soon. In mean time, BrooksBaseball.net has those.

1:59
Big Joe Mufferaw: Yankees have 23 million to spend no?

1:59
Eno Sarris: Cots Tax Tracker says 181 mill now, 197 is cap, you want to keep 3+ mill for in-season acquisitions. Maybe it’s more than 12, but not 23 I’d be surprised.

2:00
rawsko94: Just jumped on so, don’t know if this was asked already but when are the ZiPS projections set to be available for this upcoming season?

2:00
Eno Sarris: When all the teams come out.

2:00
Jermaine: Why are only 5 of the top 30 OBP leaders all time right handed? Is this just a coincidence?

2:00
Eno Sarris: The lefties get a platoon advantage more often?

2:00
Dave in London: Has anyone studies the effects on SPs — especially older ones — of extended use in the playoffs, and how it affects their performances the following year? I’m thinking of Charlie Morton and how he might fare this year after so many post-season innings in ’17.

2:01
Eno Sarris: Zimmerman did some stuff on it and found that it didn’t affect their innings in the next year (Bumgarner), but I wonder. Maybe more with relievers, who are being used so hard. I saw a little bit of an effect with heavily used relievers. Morrow would be the biggest risk this year.

2:02
Eno Sarris: Hey! I think I see emails and tweets and stuff to respond to. Podcast today! Thanks for hanging out!

We hoped you liked reading Eno Sarris Baseball Chat — 1/11/18 by Eno Sarris!

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With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.

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Dr Hocker
Member
Dr Hocker

Eno has no peer in chat room coolness. Check that Brian Auger song at 1:51 of this chat. When he solos, at one point he does three different things with 2 hands. It’s sort of a trick, but he’s playing the rhythm with his left hand on electric piano…he’s soloing on organ with 4 fingers of his right while he plays sort of a sustained stinger type high note with his 5th finger….those are his kids playing with him (except for the bass player)