Eno Sarris Baseball Chat — 10/12/17

1:05
Eno Sarris: This song, this video. It’s like reggae plus funk, it sounds like Grateful Dead’s Emancipated Prophet, her voice is amazing, and the pictures haunting…

12:00
Eno Sarris: ESTIMATED Prophet. nice.

12:00
OC: Who’s your pick for tonight?

12:01
Eno Sarris: Should be the Cubs based on talent of the starter but there’s something I like about using both Gio and Tanner, and I’m into new teams so Nats I guess.

12:02
Dylan: 16 Ks in 20 ABs has to be a record right? Not just playoffs, but ever

12:02
Eno Sarris: It’s certainly a record in my heart.

12:02
Moonlight Graham: Mama Cass allegedly died at the hands (or her hands) of a ham sandwich.  If you had to go death by sandwich, what would it be?

12:02
Eno Sarris: BLT

12:02
Nolan P: What would you say to someone who says that Amed Rosario is just a marginally better version of Orlando Arcia and Met fans should be happy with that (cough cough)

12:03
Eno Sarris: that walk rate is crazy. I think that plate discipline will improve a bit, and yeah he’s much more glove-first than people wanted to admit.

12:04
Jack: Do you buy Suarez as a top 10 third baseman in 2018? Top 5? And does that change if the Reds trade him?

12:04
Eno Sarris: Yeah I’ll take top ten. Even if he leaves the Reds, he should walk and not strike out and play decent defense.

12:05
Mike: Which team that missed the playoffs is in the best position to make it in next year?

12:05
Eno Sarris: Record says Rays, Cards, Brewers and Angels. Team trajectory says Rays and Brewers. Resources says… Cards and Angels. I’ll say Brewers if they have anything to spend.

12:06
Ned Yost: NY-largest city in USA, LA-2nd largest city in USA, Chicago-3rd largest city in USA, Houston-4th largest city in USA (we’ve seen what happens with the Nationals and game fives). What do you think this says about the state of baseball today?

12:08
Eno Sarris: If the teams with markets and money are going to be run like the small teams without money, like they are now, then the small market teams are going to have short windows and have to strike while they have chances, maybe make bigger moves in season? Is this a crazy idea?

12:08
Laxer: Is Brandon Nimmo kind of interesting?

12:08
Eno Sarris: Yes, anyone with a Votto-ian swing rate is immediately interesting. I think maybe a Robbie Grossman type with center field defense?

12:09
Eno Sarris: Or just Robbie Grossman…

12:09
“E, no” said Johnny Drama: Which preseason hyped young pitcher who flopped has the best chance of turning it around next year?  (I’m guessing it is not Cotton)

12:11
Eno Sarris: Since Cotton told me he has to throw low in the zone, and what I found out about riding fastballs low in the zone, I’m worried about him too. Wonder if Dylan Bundy has another gear, or if Gerrit Cole can find it again. Still have a lot of hope for Dan Norris, but maybe he’s going to be more Matt Moore than Robbie Ray.

12:12
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Dombrowski is going to hire Ausmus, isn’t he?\

12:12
Eno Sarris: please no

12:12
Whatup: So I kinda bailed on following the MLB after my dynasty team crapped the bed in the first round. What happened to Corbin down the stretch? Still interesting next year?

12:12
Eno Sarris: He made some gains with his changeup in the second half, and then he abandoned it. I see him as a four or so.

12:12
Ivan Grushenko: I know Estimated Prophet.  I don’t know Emancipated Prophet.  This conversation is clearly over my head.  Also I think Scherzer should start and go through the lineup once…if he’s up to it.

12:13
Eno Sarris: He should pitch if he can, yeah.

12:13
Bret Michaels: CC pick up that guitar and ah talk to meee……..

12:13
hscer: babip in cubs-nats so far: CHC .235, WSN .133

12:13
Los doyers: How sweet would it have been if Julio Urias wasn’t lost for the year :(

12:14
Eno Sarris: A lude, but meaningful?

12:14
“E, no” said Johnny Drama: Is it worth it if I get Jake Junis basically for free in my AL league when I have couple of open keeper slots?

12:14
Eno Sarris: Sure. Command guy might do better than his pitches suggest.

12:14
Mike: Who do the Nats start tonight? And does it matter?

12:14
Eno Sarris: Wholestaff.

12:14
another bad dynasty manager: Better keeper in a 16 team 12 kpr. pts. league: Hicks or Trumbo?  My IF is set but I need to pick a guy from between those two.  Ozuna is a no brainer.  Do you think Hicks will get regular playing time next year?  Thx.  Sorry I missed your chats recently, but there have been a lot of family problems lately.

12:14
Eno Sarris: Hicks.

12:14
Jay: Do you have any good words that will console a Cleveland fan today and feel good about 2018 that feels uncertain despite a less than mediocre division around it?

12:15
Eno Sarris: You’re only losing a power hitter (who wants to come back) and a few relievers, and those are the easiest things to go get. And if the team will spend some money beyond Santana, then they could be better next year, when Zimmer is hopefully healthy at the right time.

12:16
Korben Dallas: I’m sure this will be the subject of a RG article or two in the offseason, but is the Bellinger v. Judge 2018 fantasy debate now over given the glaring holes that Judge is showing here in the playoffs, and back in the pre-Sept. second half?   This is coming from a diehard Yankee fan who loves Judge – but I’d have a hard time spending a first or second round pick on a guy who could hit .200 for two months with a 35% K rate (albeit with all the homers), as opposed to Bellinger, who offers a similar skills with fewer holes.   I’ve been surprised to see Judge go ahead of Bellinger in several early mocks.

12:16
Eno Sarris: Bellinger has also struggled and shown some holes, though, right? But yeah, I’ve been mostly on team Bellinger and remain so.

12:16
“E, no” said Johnny Drama: I would think the bacon might scratch your throat up, making your death unnecessarily painful.

12:16
Eno Sarris: but bacon

12:17
The Gyorko Store Called: Buy or sell Marcus Semien?

12:17
Eno Sarris: Buy, now that price is down.

12:17
Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: Even though you’re probably not qualified enough to answer this question due to kids, but what would you do if you had all of your adult responsibilities taken care of for the next six months except you still had to work the 9-5. With no more fantasy baseball, there’s a massive void in my life.

12:18
Eno Sarris: I play a couple basketball leagues. You could try and really rock next year and do a bunch of research. Also, netflix?

12:18
The Gyorko Store Called: What does a full season of Matt Chapman look like?  (OBP league)

12:19
Eno Sarris: .300 OBP/.450 SLG, 30 homer 5 sB, better real life than fantasy player.

12:19
stever20: are we going to see more and more top pitchers with seasons like what Strasburg had- only 175 innings, instead of years like what Sale and Kluber had(over 200- but then spent come playoff time)?  Is that where we’re going?

12:19
Eno Sarris: with the ten-day DL, yes.

12:20
Ben: Yadier Molina and Russell Martin are the same age. Fangraphs and Baseball Reference both say Martin has slightly more WAR. And Baseball Prospectus has an even bigger gap with Martin with more WARP. So why do people talk about Molina as a Hall of Famer more than Martin? Or is that just my perception?

12:20
Eno Sarris: Molina’s teams won more, or he won it all once?

12:21
E: How long is the Indian’s title window open?

12:22
Eno Sarris: They at least have next year. They lose Miller and Allen before 19, that’ll be tough, but overcomable if they spend / discover another great reliever.

12:23
Ben: If Trout, Votto, and Altuve all played in Colorado, which would have the best chance to bat .400 for a season? Or would they all still have a 0% chance?

12:24
Eno Sarris: Altuve has a .339 career BABIP, would he gain the most or is he close to his peak BABIP? Trout’s is .355… Votto’s .354. Altuve?

12:24
Nelson: I know you say Greg Bird looks pretty good, but I think his forehead makes him look a little neanderthal. Not my type

12:24
Eno Sarris: well there is that

12:25
Ridiculous Thought: With Robles waiting in the wings, lets sell high on Taylor. What can he bring back?

12:26
Eno Sarris: With Robles *and* Eaton… I might look into it. Problem is, of course, that they lose Harper and Murphy in 2019, so it’s all about this year an next…

12:26
Bruce: CC will end up with some pretty good counting stats. 260 W’s, 3000 Ks, but these last few year plus the next 2-3 will leave his ERA up over 3.80 Career. Can he make the HOF pushing a 4 ERA? Even his playoff resume isnt great.

12:26
Eno Sarris: I doubt he’s a Hall of Famer, as good as he was.

12:27
Jerry Seinfeld: What’s the deal with apple watches in the dugout?!? –

Um doesn’t it look like this #Cubs coach is wearing an #AppleWatch? @MLB @Cubs @Nationals @DOBrienAJC @mlbbowman
11 Oct 2017
12:27
Eno Sarris: “Like, do you really need to get that push update about Miley Cyrus’ last sandwich tweet right now?”

12:27
“Victory” yelled Johnny Drama: What about Kevin Gascan for next year? Chamberlain’s article on him was interesting, seems like the perfect post-hype sleeper

12:28
Eno Sarris: An actual breaking ball could be hyuge. I’ve been waiting for it forever, thought it would be the curve, and maybe a new arm slot and a new slider will be all he needs. I’ll buy again if the price goes down from last year.

12:28
Stuafoo: What is Appleman’s baseball background? I know he’s the big boss and does most of the site development etc yeah? But I guess I’m wondering about his superhero origin story/how analytics and baseball came together for him.

12:28
Eno Sarris: He wanted to win his fantasy baseball league.

12:28
That Guy: Do you think we’ll get to the point where the whole concept of “starting pitching” kind of goes out the window and entire staffs become collections of short-outing flamethrowers and long-outing innings eaters deployed strategically? How far off would such a future be if ever?

12:29
Eno Sarris: Probably tied to arbitration and finding a way to reward pitchers that don’t get a lot of wins.

12:29
CamdenWarehouse: Do you think Jed Lowrie can do this again?

12:29
Eno Sarris: I’d peg him for league average play next year.

12:29
E: The Cleveland loss last night has me down, i’m trying to Lude but this has put a hole in my heart, I will attempt to fill it with a bourbon filet cheesesteak pizza

12:30
Eno Sarris: I read “bourbon filled cheesesteak pizza” and that’s only a little more bizzarre than what you actually wrote.

12:31
Hamburger on a string: Follow me to the Port-a-Potty!

12:31
CamdenWarehouse: Carson: Will you be Jackie’s pediatrician?
Dr. Alan Nathan: I’m a physicist, not an MD.
Carson: I know.

12:31
Los doyers: On the topic of public education: why are undergrads so neglected at research institutions? Relevant? Nope. Sad? Yep.

12:32
Eno Sarris: ludes for years

12:32
Shuck Bowalter: Were the Red Sox overrated or undermanaged?

12:33
Eno Sarris: I think they were missing the necessary power component, actually. I mean, you can live on contact and okay power all you want, but then you need a killer staff, and theirs was just good.

12:33
Show Hey O’Tawny: What does it mean that when I see the name Chapman I think Matt and not Aroldis?? I’m not even an A’s fan

12:34
Eno Sarris: Wait was it supposed to be Aroldis? I went with Matt myself.

12:34
R: Are you surprised by the Yankees season?

12:34
Eno Sarris: I picked them to make the postseason, so mildly!

12:34
Sonny: Feels like Dombrowski lost his fastball, he turned what looked like a wide open window into a now 2y window with a barren farm and a stripped analytic dept. How long is his leash?

12:35
Eno Sarris: The good thing about needing power is that it’s the easiest thing to buy right now.

12:35
Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: If they made meat substitutes just as cost effective and taste just as similar to real meat, would you stop buying real meat? Asking because I’m about to make a beyond burger for lunch and they’re f’n tasty.

12:35
Eno Sarris: There’s a breakfast sausage that I’ve loved for so long… Morning Star maybe? I should get those again.

12:35
Bruce: Do catchers lead the league in neck tattoos per capita?

12:36
Eno Sarris: Maybe Yadier’s just scared everyone into thinking he’s a HoFer.

12:36
Eno Sarris: Nothing makes me feel older than a neck tatoo, honestly.

12:36
SignedEpsteinsMother: My nephew wants to open a sandwich shop. What say you Obi Wan

12:37
Eno Sarris: I would say that they, like the local brewpub, are good ideas depending on the exact situation of the location.

12:37
Marty: Why do you think managers are rarely moved from triple-a to MLB? Many are former players, at least at some level, and you’d have some idea of how they handle in-game situations.

12:37
Eno Sarris: Maybe Triple-A in general is just where people hang out waiting for a chance, players and managers.

12:37
Floyd: Are we going to trust Alex Wood’s health for 2018?  If so, top 30?

12:38
Eno Sarris: I would not trust his health, but I don’t trust many and would put him just outside the 30.

12:38
Rick Roll: As a Cubs fan who just watched Strasburg, there’s something I like about Gio+Tanner too …

12:38
CamdenWarehouse: Seriously, how many of the big innovations in sabermetrics over the last 20 years were because someone wanted to win in fantasy?

12:38
Eno Sarris: Underrated motivator.

12:38
Shohei how you doing: So just based on pitching talent, who’d you rather have next year, Otani or Luis Castillo?

12:38
Eno Sarris: Otani. Bigger fastball, can you believe it?

12:39
Catt Marpenter: Schoop gonna be this dude? I really get a JJ Hardy vibe from him. I like the value in 2018.

12:39
Eno Sarris: yeah with this ball, this is him.

12:39
SignedEpsteinsMother: Jon Lester throwing over to first 2x in a row And getting the pickoff, is 49 pitches in dog years.

12:41
Bleh: When is the next time you can see the Dodgers failing to win the NL West?  5+ years?

12:41
Eno Sarris: The Dbacks weren’t terrible, and teams fall apart. I wouldn’t project anyone into five years of winning the division.

12:42
Dylan: What is Wilmer Flores?

12:42
Eno Sarris: Right-hand platoon first baseman? Second division third baseman?

12:42
Steve O: Where can the Sox get it though? They’re basically locked in at every position except 1B/DH and C and they still have Hanley for one of those spots.

12:42
Eno Sarris: tons of 1B power out there.

12:43
Josh: What breakout players are doomed to disappoint next season? Marwin? C Taylor?

12:43
Eno Sarris: Between those two I’m going with Marwin because he’d played more and established more of an MLB baseline before this year.

12:43
Chalupa Batman: Do you see any chance the Mets deploy Wheeler (even Lugo/Gsell) in a way similar to Devenski? Would think you’d have to really prioritize getting him into clean innings w/ ample warm up time though

12:44
Eno Sarris: Gsellman’s sinker seems like it could slide right into that. Wheeler seems fragile when it comes to command and health.

12:44
jp: Did the Indians “choke”?  I’d say nah, just bad baseball at the wrong time

12:44
Eno Sarris: We

12:45
Eno Sarris: for a reason, but often there isn’t one. Things fell as they did. Imagine if they’d had good Salazar and healthy Zimmer. But things happen.

12:45
Bruce: Why isnt there more written about how far back or up batters stand in the box. It would seem to me to be pretty important, but I never read anything about it, other then when Ellsbury hits the catcher

12:46
Eno Sarris: I think what makes it difficult is that we don’t have many views that allow us to see where they are standing in the box with reliability, and we have no measures for league-wide to give us a sense of scope and where a guy fits in.

12:47
SignedEpsteinsMother: What does it mean that when I see the name Chapman I think Mark David.

12:47
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Peter, I’m a pediatrician. Can’t you see you’re sitting on a firetruck?

12:47
Joel: waiting for the ludes is far more entertaining than paying attention in my philosophy class

12:47
Jucky Bacobson: Do teams who send players to the AFL send instructions about how they want them used, what they want them to work on, or how often they should play, or is that mostly up to the random manager of that Arizona club?

12:48
Eno Sarris: I’ve asked them that, and mostly they say that if they’ve heard anything, it’s “keep playing, build up innings/PA, play against other good prospects”

12:48
Josh: Cueto bounce back next season or is he toast?

12:48
Eno Sarris: Health-based bounce back to three-to-four wins? 3.5-3.7 ERA type? I could see that.

12:49
JD15: Where does Strasburg’s Changeup rank among changeups? Also…can people now realize that the changeup can be a game changer/strike out pitch rather than complimentary? (Ex. Tanaka/Salazar split, Stras change, etc.)

12:50
Eno Sarris: The changeup’s whiff rate has the weakest correlation to overall whiff rate, last time I checked, so you’re right to point out that many pitchers use the pitch for weak contact. but there are many different kinds of changeups, and absolutely there are pitchers trying to get to two strike counts to throw their nasty change.

12:50
Beastin 25/8: Gray/Keuchel, Severino/Verlander, CC/Peacock, Tanaka/Morton.  Am I crazy or is that a favorable series of match ups for the Yankees?

12:50
Eno Sarris: I’d say even, even to Verlander based on recent performance, even to Peacock, Tanaka.

12:51
Chicago Mold Spores: If Cubs win tonight and use Hendricks and Quintana, like Maddon says he plans to, who do you start in Game 1 since none of the staff would be on more than 2 days rest, and then who do you start on 3 days rest in Game 2?

12:51
Eno Sarris: Woof. Could you do a bullpen game in the first with Montgomery starting?

12:52
Cody: What should the Brewers do for 2B next year?

12:52
Eno Sarris: Should of traded for Lowrie. I guess Villar and see where they need help in season if they’re winning.

12:53
HappyFunBall: If you were Dusty, and knew that all of your pitchers would perform to their season averages, how would you plan on deploying them today?

12:53
Eno Sarris: Scherzer starts hahaaha

12:54
Jucky Bacobson: What did Dan Vogelbach do wrong?  List of possible crimes:  a. Not enough power. b. Whipped Dipoto on Madden and laughed about it. c. Leaves his jock on the pool table in spring training.  d. Other.

12:55
Eno Sarris: If you’re going to be a strikeout/walk guy with no D, you have to have power, and his power output has not been consistent? Or c.

12:55
Jucky Bacobson: Have you heard anything about the state of Brandon Belt’s concussion symptoms?

12:56
Eno Sarris: Supposedly he’s ready to work out and be ready for spring…

12:56
Fangraphs Juggalo: Does CarMart have the stuff to be a CY contender in his future, or is he destined to be defined by flashes of brilliance pulled down by inconsistency?

12:56
Eno Sarris: I tend to be suspicious of those mechanics, he flies open a lot, but the stuff is so good I’m not going to say he can’t win a Cy.

12:56
Nelson: What do you think of the theory that all these fruited beers a 0 IBU IPAs are because a lot of people want to get into craft beer, but dont actually like the taste of beer?

12:57
Eno Sarris: Beer doesn’t *have* to taste bitter!

12:57
HappyFunBall: Next year the Nats put Robles in AAA for development, then run Eaton/Taylor/Harper across the OF. Goodwin can be the 4th OF, and Robles gets called up for any significant injury.  Victor looked good in a cup of coffee this year, but that doesn’t mean he’s ready for 162.

12:57
Eno Sarris: Yeah.

12:57
Oddball Herrera: Am I the only one who gets weirded out when I see players screaming like madmen on TV after a big play? There is an intensity there I just can’t relate to and have always found a little disturbing. Maybe this is why I am no good at organized sports…

12:57
Eno Sarris: I’ve been there in my pickup ball game, maybe not quite all the way there, but it would be a little out of place.

12:57
CamdenWarehouse: Pay attention in your philosophy class!  that way you can get a job and wait for ludes while getting paid like the rest of us.

12:57
Fangraphs Juggalo: Your lubes are great, but the best lubes were in the Wolf of Wall Street

12:58
Nelson: I always pick which teams to root for in the playoffs inversly based on what corny stuff gestures the teams do when they get a big hit.  Glad the Bosox are out, but the yankees with their dumb thumbs down thing need to go.

12:58
Big Joe Mufferaw: K, anyone who has watched the ALDS knows that the umps really F’d up Judge’s Strike Zone

12:59
Eno Sarris: To be fair, they’ve had a hard time with the low pitch on him all year, because he’s so tall.

12:59
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: ERIC SOGARD?!

12:59
Eno Sarris: free agent, sadly.

12:59
Devil Ray Jay Johnson: Why does no one talk about elbow tattoos?

12:59
Eno Sarris: you can hide them.

1:00
Eno Sarris:

1:01
Oddball Herrera: Gray/Keuchel doesn’t seem all that even per season, career, or recent history performance

1:02
Eno Sarris: Kuechel was pretty up and down recently with that injury, but sure. Take him. I have a little bias towards Gray in big spots since I saw him stare down Verlander here in Oakland.

1:02
HappyFunBall: So Scherzer starts, throws maybe once through the order. Maybe. But probably only 6 outs.  Then what?

1:02
Eno Sarris: roark and gio based on where the lineup is by handedness.

1:03
Josh: Are there any players whose continued success make no sense to you?  Like, this guy should suck based on all of his peripherals but he keeps producing?

1:03
Eno Sarris: Mike Leake?

1:04
Justino: Do the Cubs extend anyone this offseason? Rizzo, Happ, Hendricks, etc?

1:04
Eno Sarris: Not a pitcher, but maybe Happ?

1:04
Devil Ray Jay Johnson: Royals will likely have a lot of holes if all their free agents leave.  Which is the best bet among internal replacement candidates Bonifacio, Burns, Cuthbert, Dozier, or Orlando?

1:05
Eno Sarris: Boni as the type that we thought Soler would be? I could say Burns being a lo-rent fantasy pickup worth it for the steals.

1:05
E: Is there any beer you won’t try?

1:05
Eno Sarris: I’m really down on pumpkin beers. But there are sours and stouts that are okay.

1:05
Jucky Bacobson: I think it’s funny that if you were going to cheat you’d sit in the dugout with your cheating device.  Wouldn’t you sit in the tunnel and just send the bat boy to tell a coach how to cheat, or just kind of shout-whisper “It’s a fastball, Rizzo.  Fastball coming big guy!”

1:06
Eno Sarris: Maybe you need to relay to someone on field and they can’t see you in the tunnel? did that guy ever try to signal anyone after he looked down?

1:06
Jucky Bacobson: Gary Sanchez and Mike Zunino: same WRC+. Who you got next year?

1:06
Eno Sarris: Gary.

1:06
hscer: i have both eloy and robles and just 1 super-cheap keeper spot. who should get the cheap one and who should get the full one

1:07
Eno Sarris: I give super cheap to Eloy, because I see him having higher ceiling and lower floor? Does that make sense?

1:07
sabrtooth: There seem to be a number of attempts to “gotcha” FG authors in chat every week by pointing out another author’s view (like that question about Rosario and Arcia) to create disagreement. Isn’t a non-monolithic FG a good thing?

1:08
Eno Sarris: Oh man I didn’t know. I think we’re good with it, none of us are sniping each other, and we mostly have impassioned, fun, disagreements when we talk in person.

1:08
Reginald Denton III: Perhaps I’m missing something – what benefit can actually be derived from Apple watches in the dugout?

1:09
Eno Sarris: Someone stands in CF, relays pitch sign to dugout? Seems like it’s hard to get that to batter in time.

1:09
NtflxnRichHill : Eno, please tell me why this equation is messed up…I ran it for 2015-2016 and 2016-2017, and it seems to predict ERA just as good – if not better than – FIP…(((xwOBA*1.33*(TBF))+(3*BB)+(3*HBP))-(2*K)/IP+FIP constant…it obviously is FIP with a factor for xwOBA instead of HR..but I mean it’s dumb right?

1:09
Eno Sarris: Well I’ll take xwOBA over HR, because I do think pitchers have some control over homers allowed.

1:10
CamdenWarehouse: Yeah, obviously Sanchez over Zunino, but this ignores the important point: Zunino was good this year.

1:10
Eno Sarris: yeah but I just don’t trust him to repeat, is my point.

1:10
hscer: are you employing a different queue-sorting strategy today? or are we less crowded than usual?

1:10
Eno Sarris: less crowded! I’m all caught up. We are chatting like we used to chat years ago!

1:11
Steve O: The yankees can’t keep rolling out Headley and Ellsbury at DH, right? Right????

1:11
Eno Sarris: You mean like now or next year because they are better batters than Romine right.

1:11
Andrew: Tribe pick up brantley’s option next year?

1:11
Eno Sarris: $11 million? I see a lot of people saying no, but I think it really depends on their internal evaluation of his health.

1:12
Shuck Bowalter: Is Odor broken? Like, is he worth keeping in an Otto league? He was pretty awful this year.

1:13
Eno Sarris: Looks a bit too much like the year before in a bad way. Definitely OBP league drop. Points too, since he probably got inflated to a decent price..

1:13
Mike: According to BP WARP, the team position with the highest value this year was LA Dodgers Catcher; combined worth more than Judge, Stanton or Altuve.

1:13
Eno Sarris: I wouldn’t be surprised if Grandal would give back some of his value in game calling if we could put that into the mix.

1:13
Josh: Greg Holland declined his $15 mil option. Smart or dumb?  He faded in the 2nd half.

1:14
Eno Sarris: He can get close to that over multiple years and he should do that.

1:14
Nelson: They mentionned 100 times how the Yankees tried to trade for Bruce. Where would he have played?

1:14
Eno Sarris: At DH now I guess.

1:14
Beastin 25/8: I’d imagine Clint Frazier or Matt Holliday would be who Yankees fans would prefer at DH

1:14
Eno Sarris: Is Clint on the playoff roster? Or we talking going back in time and changing that. Holliday will get some ABs.

1:15
Dread Pirate Roberts: Do you think DiPoto has it in him to do the full rebuild that the M’s need? Or will he turn over 75% of the roster next year to win 77 games?

1:15
Eno Sarris: Oh god is he going to trade as much this year again? I kinda think, like Preller, you get once chance to do all that. Now maybe he can sign one or two FA.

1:15
Nelson: Carlos Santana get like 3/36 from an AL team? more/less?

1:16
Eno Sarris: so much power out there, I doubt he gets a huge payday, so he ends up close to that and at home.

1:16
Steve O: Now. They can put Clint Frazier or even Tyler Austin on the roster. At least they can run into one.

1:17
Eno Sarris: Oh right, new slate. True. Comfortable with Gardner as the backup CF?

1:17
Hal: Hot take alert: I think the old-school announcers complaining about bullpen usage are getting at a larger point– it’s not a good thing that baseball’s postseason is so different from the regular season. It’d be like the NBA going 3 on 3, first to 21 for the playoffs.

1:18
Eno Sarris: So what do they do? Push games closer to game and eliminate rest days? Play on travel days?

1:18
Matt: Independent of what happens in the rest of the playoffs, what do you think the Cubs need to do this offseason, independent of reshuffling the pen? Do they need to add a traditional lead-off guy?

1:18
Eno Sarris: Same thing they’ve always had to go get: pitching.

1:19
hscer: I started trying to get into B Eno again recently. I like it more than last time. On Some Faraway Beach is my current favorite

1:19
Eno Sarris:

1:20
CamdenWarehouse: Do you have opt out predictions for Tanaka and Upton

1:20
Eno Sarris: Something tells me Tanaka keeps 3/67. Upton I think opts out.

1:21
Hunky Dory: Can change playoff roster for next round, can’t they?  I’d drop Holliday and add Wade or Frazier for DH/PR

1:22
Eno Sarris: Drop Holliday for untested rookie, huh? I might be more inclined to do Frazier for Ellsbury rn.

1:22
NtflxnRichHill : The Braves will exercise Flowers’ option, right? I really want him to end up on a good team. He deserves more than just a time share with Zuk (nothing but love for Zook, he was my teammate at CSUF, but Flowers is really, really good)

1:22
Eno Sarris: They will, I’d guess.

1:22
awy: thoughts on hitters having different swings for different pitches? theoretically if the pitch recognition is advanced enough to differentiate between low/high pitches, a hitter could put uppercut/flat swings on different zones. might only work when the pitches are slow enough for the mid-swing adjustment though, like curveballs with aaron judge.

1:23
Eno Sarris: I know for a fact that Matt Duffy has two swings. I know that Votto steps differently based on location of pitch. I’m guessing some guys have different swings based on 2s / 4s. But I think it’s hard to perfect two swings.

1:23
Brad: need to keep either degrom or grienke next year.  I’m leaning degrom.  What say you?  Thanks.

1:23
Eno Sarris: yah love his strikeout rate and age.

1:24
SignedEpsteinsMother: What does a Stanton trade roughly look like.

1:26
Eno Sarris: I mean I did the math based on him being a six win guy next year. I found like $180m surplus! That’s a lot. Depth charts call him a 5.5 win guy. That costs him ten wins and gives him $80m surplus, roughly. So maybe one good prospect, one meh one, and pick up all the cash?

1:26
Jason44: If you had to drink a pumpkin beer, what would it be?

1:26
Eno Sarris: Almanac sour.

1:27
Batflips for BBs: Any thoughts on filling of managerial voids? Anyone seem like a perfect fit?

1:27
Eno Sarris: Interested in Cora.

1:27
Jason44: Favorite fall seasonal beer?

1:27
Eno Sarris: Wet/fresh hop beers.

1:27
Eno Sarris: They like melon vegetable if that sounded good.

1:28
Chappie: Now I’m thinking of chapstick.

1:28
Jay: What’s Bryan Shaw’s market going to look like? Led baseball in relief appearances since 2013 now. Been durable and reliable since then but will teams take that usage into consideration?\

1:28
Eno Sarris: I think he’ll be in demand. That 95 mph cutter as sexy as he isn’t.

1:28
Justino: Is there an MLB blooper better than Jose Canseco’s ball-off-the-noggin-over-the-RF-wall-for-a-homer blooper?

1:29
Eno Sarris: I liked Barney arm crawling to third, who was it that slid into a butt at second base, Steve Sax taking his pants off at first…

1:29
Sweet Lou: At this point with the game on the line, you have to PH for Judge right?  Picture 2-out man on second, yanks tied in the 8th type of scenario

1:29
Eno Sarris: Nope.

1:29
CamdenWarehouse: How bad will the next 5 years be for Orioles fans?

1:31
Eno Sarris: I just saw that Adam Jones was rated as the worst center fielder by basically every metric… That’s a little bit no-duh, but it’s also a problem without a solution. Beckham was a sneaky great pickup, but that starting rotation… I guess Bundy and Gausman could both find it in one year, they always have good bullpens, and score runs…

1:31
Brad: Is bullpenning good for baseball?  what’s the first question people ask when you say you are going to a game?  What’s the pitching matchup?

1:31
Eno Sarris: True thing.

1:31
Mark: Is there any practical reason why Adam Eaton’s defensive numbers are so good in a corner spot and so repugnant center? Playing CF cant be THAT much different from RF, right?

1:32
Eno Sarris: One thing that’s different is that you have to play both slices and draws at once. Ball looks different in center.

1:32
hscer: Double-headers, duh!

1:32
Jucky Bacobson: I think your Montgomery suggestion is spot-on.  MiMo is a good spot starter.

1:32
Jason44: Ty Cobb lamented the change in the game brought on by Ruth’s dingers.  The more things change the more they stay the same?

1:32
Hal: I think eliminating a travel day or two from each series is the simplest and best solution, would reward pitching depth without doing anything too dramatic

1:32
Dirty Sanchez: It actually would be pretty gross to be completely doused in budweiser. Cool, combined with my sweat from playing, I now smell exactly like a homeless person

1:33
Eno Sarris: After Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez dumped champagne on me (because I wasn’t wearing a jacket like the pros), I sat in my car and thought — wow this will suck if I get pulled over. I smell like a strip club floor.

1:33
Bryan: Personal politics aside, do you think any of the remaining teams would opt out of visiting the white house if they won?

1:33
Eno Sarris: Players maybe but not teams, no way.

1:33
Jucky Bacobson: Does anything turn your stomach as fast as the words: Otani signs with Yankees?

1:33
Eno Sarris: I think we’re headed that way.

1:34
Hunky Dory: Holliday has like a 40 wrc+ and a sky-high GB rate since June.

1:34
Joe: C. Frazier and Holliday are redundant if you drop ellsbury

1:34
NtflxnRichHill : Manaea’s swinging strike rate was like 16% up until he missed a few starts and then he fell off a cliff..end of season periphs ended up pretty close  to where he was at in 2016. You expect more of the same, an injury riddled season, or a step forward next year?

1:35
Eno Sarris: Yeah he was hurt in the second half for sure. He’ll have a breakout year or two when he stays healthy, but this certainly seems like a guy who will be on the DL a fair amount.

1:35
Steve O: I still remember Clint Frazier turning on a 97 mph fb from Corey Knebel like it’s nothing.

1:35
Steve O:

1:35
Eno Sarris: Would be a fun story if they do it.

1:36
Show Hey O’Tawny: Eno, your cheeseburger on a string tweet was posted by a popular pop culture Instagram page. You made it big!

1:36
Eno Sarris: Like 70k likes on that thing, so almost 100k all together. I’m still in my underwear.

1:36
Jucky Bacobson: Isn’t swing path one of the secrets to great hitting.  Dan Murphy is a huge swing plane kind of guy right? Am I saying something different than talking about “2 diff swings”?

1:37
Eno Sarris: No, you’re saying same thing, but I doubt Murphy wants to swing his old swing and his new swing in the same AB. You want repeatable mechanics, which usually means one set of mechanics. Look at how most of the league’s pitchers are going away from the windup and pitching exclusively out of the stretch.

1:38
NtflxnRichHill : Fully engorged for Albies

1:38
SignedEpsteinsMother: RIP Tom Petty

1:38
CamdenWarehouse: Is there any chance we will see Kim Ng to the Braves?

1:38
Eno Sarris: there should be, but I doubt it.

1:39
SignedEpsteinsMother:

1:39
The Ghost of Wade Boggs: Long time listener, first time luder here

1:39
Sweet Lou: favorite halloween candy?

1:39
Eno Sarris: peanut butter cups

1:39
NtflxnRichHill : Prince Fielder borrowing a fan’s glasses…Prince Fielder eating a fan’s nachos…

1:39
hscer: wasn’t that Steve Lyons?

1:39
Eno Sarris: yes

1:40
Cody: Villar into Brandon Phillips butt

1:40
The Ghost of Wade Boggs: The Canseco head-homer gets bonus points for who it happened to, though

1:40
Bagel: Do you think Joe Musgrove still has a chance to be a solid starter?

1:40
Eno Sarris: I doubt he can throw at this velocity as a starter.

1:40
Ken: re: Apple watches in dugout – my understanding was that signs get relayed to bench, where they in turn get relayed to players so that if they wind up on second they know what to look for/relay to the batter.

1:40
Eno Sarris: yeah but that’s a lot of relaying between sign to pitcher and swing time.

1:40
NtflxnRichHill : Does UZR take into account where the defender started?

1:40
Eno Sarris: no.

1:41
BigBopper: Regardless of what happens this year, what should the Nats do in 2018 to maximize their remaining window (and either repeat or win a WS)?

1:42
Eno Sarris: Extend Harper.

1:42
Jucky Bacobson: When do we put Barry Bonds in the Hall of Fame because everybody was able to take drugs and nobody was anywhere near as good as him on drugs?  I mean, I still think we have to acknowledge his incredible talent (73 HR in the greatest homer suppressing park for starters), regardless of moral foibles.

1:43
Eno Sarris: This is sort of where I land. “The commish who let them all do drugs is in the HoF, we can’t tell who exactly did the drugs, so let’s just treat it as it’s own time and compare players within those constraints.”

1:43
dusty baker: i’m going to start scherzer, have him go 4, have gio go 3, close with 2 innings of doolittle. is that a good strateg

1:43
Eno Sarris: Does Max have four in him? More likely two or three, then gio and roar share four.

1:43
nats fan: My sinuses are bothering me. Does this mean I can go out and K 12 Cubs?  (btw: I’m 62.)

1:44
Eno Sarris: yes.

1:44
Jucky Bacobson: Ty Cobb as barometer of any norm is probably worth questioning.

1:44
Sweet Lou: How many minutes each morning does it take to curl your hair?

1:44
Eno Sarris: It starts that way. I just have to untangle it and let it air dry, that’s the most awkward, when I’m letting my soul glo.

1:44
Tim: Is it just me or will the TBS guys just never shut the hell up? Every fan watching was already on the edge of their seat for that Gardner at bat, we don’t need the meaningless numbers!

1:45
Eno Sarris: Underrated part of being a good announcer is knowing when not to talk.

1:46
Connor: Why are the Yankees the favorite to sign Otani if the money from everyone is going to be about even?

1:47
Eno Sarris: I bet he would make his decision based on competitiveness, size of media market, and size of Japanese community if money were not a factor.

1:47
Eno Sarris:

1:47
Marty: Otani. Bigger fastball, can you believe it? People come up to me and say ‘have you see this fastball? it’s unbelievable’. Fastballs like the world has never seen…

1:47
Jucky Bacobson: Should the A’s trade AJ Puk to Atlanta so Puk-Zuk can be a battery?

1:48
Mark: Would you give Hader a chance to start next year or just leave him in the pen and be happy you have the next Andrew Miller?

1:48
Eno Sarris: Start.

1:48
Braník Best: What is Carson Fulmer’s ceiling next year? SP4?

1:48
Eno Sarris: I have very little confidence in him.

1:49
Eno Sarris:

1:49
Scuffy Mcgee: Why do coaches and people gripe about being on the last year of a contract without an extension?  Most of us work with way less certain terms than that.

1:49
Eno Sarris: Industry norms are different for us.

1:50
Scherzer? I hardly know her : Is there a trio of players, 25 and under you would take over Bryant, Contreras, and Russell?

1:52
Eno Sarris: Ramirez Lindor Zimmer deserves some love. Bregman, Correa, McCullers is nice. Severino, Judge, Sanchez… last two suffer from including a pitcher I guess.

1:53
Sweet Lou: This is definitely the postseason for the pointless stats brought forward by the broadcast team.  It’s like they just discovered advanced but don’t really know what they are or how to use them

1:53
E: LET YOUR SOOOOUUULLLLL GLOOO

1:53
gajklgj: Would have been much cooler if Otani came forward at the end of the season and said that whoever wins the world series gets to sign him

1:54
Quivu: RE: Molina vs. Martin. Because Molina is an exponentially better defensive C, as in, the best defensive C for a decade. Is that real question? Can we stop measuring everything w/ WAR?

1:54
Eno Sarris: Martin might have been the best framer for a decade. You saw my answer on Grandal? I’m not using WAR for all of these answers.

1:55
Fangraphs Juggalo: Your Otani to NYY theory has just one flaw.  Everyone universally agrees that St. Louis and Miluakee are better cities than New York.  NLC! BAYBEE!!

1:55
Braník Best: Is Melancon back as the closer for the Giants next year? I feel like keeping a cheap Dyson is a smart choice… although it was a dumb choice for half of last season (have him again at last year’s price).

1:55
Eno Sarris: All about health, but if healthy, yes.

1:55
Jucky Bacobson: If Marco Gonzales were to find a magic lamp, and he can have one improvement to his pitching repertoire (but not say, throw 200 miles per hour, you know, this is a real question), what should he wish for?

1:55
Eno Sarris: A better breaking ball?

1:55
YKnotDisco?!: Scully was a win-win. Loved the voice and pace when he spoke – it felt like watching a game with my grandpa – and his uncanny sense of when the sounds of the game is all we needed to hear.

1:56
hscer: any rumors on who’s getting the live blog tonight?

1:56
Eno Sarris: Jeff I think.

1:56
Devil Ray Jay Johnson: You say peanut butter cups, but Twix always disappear first.

1:56
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Harper, Turner, Robles.

1:56
Eno Sarris: Ooh for like four more days!

1:56
Jucky Bacobson: Betts, Bogaerts, Devers?

1:57
Eno Sarris: I really like this trio. Betts is five days over 25 if that matters. Ah 25 and under. My leaderboard sort may have been for only under 25.

1:58
Eno Sarris: I might pick the Nationals one if Robles was mroe established.

1:58
HappyFunBall: Would have been much cooler if Otani came forward at the end of the season and said that whoever LOSES the world series gets to sign him.  That way he can be the difference! And it creates a fun perverse incentive!

1:59
E: Betts, Benintendi, Devers, or Boegarts

1:59
Eno Sarris: It’s not all done for the Red Sox now is it.

1:59
Steve O: Severino is an ace though. Best catcher in baseball. And maybe the league’s MVP.

1:59
Eno Sarris: Among the two and a pitcher ones, it’s my favorite.

1:59
Devil Ray Jay Johnson: Bears, Beets, Battlestar Galactica

2:00
Concrete melts off me: /Hey Eno ,looked at your twitter and saw the Jamaican and German flag is it because you love rum and beer?

2:00
Eno Sarris: Born in Jamaica to German biological parents.

2:00
CL: Worst Over 30: Kemp, Markakis, Adonis Garcia

2:00
Apple Alex Cobbler: So Alex Cobb’s nasty splitter hasn’t returned post-TJS. What does his future role look like to you.. still a potential #2/3 or more of a back-end guy now?

2:01
Eno Sarris: Did okay in that fastball/tons of curves approach, but I think middle.

2:01
UncleWeez: Scooter Gennett, Tucker Barnhart, and Billy Hamilton

2:01
UncleWeez: Joey Votto and literally any 2 people

2:01
Jason44: Where at in Jamaica?  Honeymooned in Negril.

2:01
Eno Sarris: Negril. We had a restaurant called Silver Star Cafe.

2:01
E: Would you live in a tiny house?

2:02
Eno Sarris: Had a 660 square foot two bed room in Jersey City, wouldn’t really want to go much smaller with two kids, so no.

2:02
C’mon: Adonis doesn’t count…

2:02
Eno Sarris: really? really? lol

2:02
Dan: Would it be wise for the Yanks to count on Bird as the starting first baseman going into next year considering his health concerns?

2:03
Eno Sarris: Everyone’s filling in that position, they can do the same with Austin, Bird, and some DH type signing.

2:03
Matt: Do you think Dinelson Limet can take another step forward? Or is his lack of a 3rd pitch (and inability to get out LHHs) a fatal flaw that limits his ceiling?

2:03
Eno Sarris: Apparently he’s throwing a curve and a cutter, if he really can differentiate three breaking balls, it won’t matter about his changeup. But I do think differentiation matters. It’s what the Dodgers wanted for Yu.

2:03
Ben: Where did you live in Jersey City?

2:04
Eno Sarris: Grove Street station. York and Grove basically. Tacqueria baby.

2:04
Eno Sarris: Oh crap I gotta work! thanks for hanging out.

We hoped you liked reading Eno Sarris Baseball Chat — 10/12/17 by Eno Sarris!

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With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.

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Ivan_Grushenko
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Ivan_Grushenko

I know Estimated Prophet. I don’t know Emancipated Prophet. This conversation is clearly over my head. Also I think Scherzer should start and go through the lineup once if he’s up to it. Then Gio, Madson, Doolittle and finally Roark in case of extras.