Eno Sarris Baseball Chat — 11/16/17

12:39
Eno Sarris: old school, well titled

12:01
emlazar: What kind of market is out there for Stephen Piscotty?

12:02
Eno Sarris: I bet there’s a decent one among the rebuilders. He’s shown the ability to hit for power and the fly ball drop last year was not so precipitous that you can’t see it coming back.

12:03
BK: Judge or Altuve tonight?

12:03
Eno Sarris: Guessing Altuve, people going to talk about how well rounded he is.

12:03
emlazar: Could you see TOR or SEA targeting someone like Joc Pederson? What kind of a return would LAD be looking for?

12:03
Eno Sarris: I suppose they’re looking for pitching.

12:04
Owen: Who did you see that looked good at AFL?

12:04
Eno Sarris: Michael Chavis, Austin Riley, duh Acuna, Touki Touissaint. Sheldon Neuse looked pretty good.

12:05
John S: Any interest in making the trip to Monterrey to see Pads-Dodgers in May? I’ll probably go, but I am puzzled as to why it’s Monterrey and not the D.F.

12:05
Eno Sarris: Monterrey a lot closer I guess. I am interested! Wish I spoke spanish.

12:05
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Over/under on offseason Dipoto free agent signings: 3.5. Over/under on offseason Dipoto trades: 35.5

12:06
Eno Sarris: Fitting that he got the ball rolling early with a trade with Billy Beane huh, they’ve been bros.

12:06
AJ : How can we explain Hosmer’s extreme year-to-year fluctuations?

12:06
Eno Sarris: With a ground-ball and contact-leaning approach, he’s more dependent on the bouncing ball than most?

12:07
Me: Your thoughts on the Healy deal?

12:07
Eno Sarris: Don’t like it. If he truly has the luxury of looking ahead four to five years like he’s said, then you keep a guy like Healy around and sell high instead of worrying where he fits in 2018 and selling him for a reliever. I guess they like Campos. Maybe Campos is good.

12:07
YDG: If you had a vote for Manager of the Year, what would your criteria be?

12:09
Eno Sarris: I had a vote last year and used a couple metrics: how good were they at using their best reliever in the highest leverage situation? how good were they at setting the right lineups? I’d like a more sophisticated bunting metric than I had. And then instead of voting on those numbers, I’d use it to group the best five and order it subjectively, because it’s still a job that mostly depends on how good of a people manager you are.

12:10
Jim: $200 QS/OBP with 5 OF. Keep Castillo or Conforto. have Kluber/Thor/Nola/JGray and Betts/Springer/Belly/Hoskins/Robles and loaded IF?

12:10
Eno Sarris: Man my heart says Conforto but he may end up needing to struggle through this year as he gets healthy, and pitching is at a premium. Castillo.

12:11
Christian: If the Red Sox end up signing J.D. Martinez, do they move him to first?

12:11
Eno Sarris: I’d try him there for sure. Otherwise they’d trade JBJ for a pitcher, I guess.

12:11
Matt: “We want to set in place a system of rules that screws foreign players in favor of domestic” – MLBPA
“We’re angry to a foreign player is getting screwed” – Also, MLBPA

12:12
Eno Sarris: Yeah. They’re good at that.

12:13
RAP: How would you rank the following for next year- Benintendi, Murphy, Ozuna, Bregman?

12:14
Eno Sarris: tough one. Okay: Bregman Benny Murphy Ozuna

12:14
Zwibi: Wanted to know your thoughts on Jorge Mateo. He is holding his own in the DWL and he had a great year last year after the change of scenery. He looks like a trea turner lite and was just added to the 40 man. Should we be looking at some ample playing time in OAK next year?

12:15
Eno Sarris: He really flipped his gb/fb on its head in double A. I think he has power and speed and the team thinks he can play shortstop. I’m really surprised at some people’s low ranking of his. That said, don’t know if it’s *this* year.

12:15
Gregory: Have you had / How do you like the Fort Point Manzanita?

12:15
Eno Sarris: It’s very interesting. Tastes like the plant smells. I really enjoyed it but wouldn’t want a sixer.

12:15
Nihilist Eno: The offseason prepares us for the hottest stove of all…the flames of eternity. Drink Beer, Watch Baseball (rumors)

12:15
Matt: See no pears, Gus

12:15
Matt: See? New Glarus.

12:16
Eno Sarris: okay okay okay

12:16
Jon: Chances that Alex Cobb is more than a solid back of the rotation guy going forward? Hard contact rate and lack of missed bats look troubling.

12:16
Eno Sarris: Splitter never came back. Really bad injury history. I’d be cautious.

12:16
KJ: Watched a conversation between Chris Russo and Brian Kenny on Votto for MVP. Russo cited second half where Votto only hit 10hr and had 30 RBI as a reason not to vote. Saying there was no consistency and he wanted to see hr and rbi. Does this annoy you as much as it annoys me?

12:16
Eno Sarris: yes.

12:17
John S: how much damage would CEO derek jeter have to do to change public perception of SS derek jeter?  or is Single Dude derek Jeter proof that SS derek jeter can overcome all?

12:17
Eno Sarris: Maybe that’s the idea with the cost cutting. WE hide behind Jeter’s sheen and cut costs instead of coming in and making a splash.

12:18
Jay: Tyago Viera goes for international bonus $…M’s trying to put themselves in play for Ohtani? Also amazing where we are with velo that a guy who throws 100 goes for no physical talent on paper. Imagine that 20 years ago.

12:20
Eno Sarris: Do we know how much that gives them? Looks like $3m to get in with the big guys. Also: yeah. JC Ramirez throws hard! I was thinking about that the other day. He’s not that great.

12:20
The Ghost of Wade Boggs: Would you please speculate what percentage of the Twins voiding Jelfry Marte’s contract was actually because of “vision problems” and what percentage was just clearing internation money for Ohtani?

12:20
Eno Sarris: No idea, but remember also that the Braves prospects may be hitting the market soon.

12:21
Drew: Trying to trade Mazara for a top 10 prospect in dynasty. Are you similarly down on Mazara?

12:21
Eno Sarris: no.

12:21
Sterling Malory Chris Archer: The more I read about Gabe Kapler the more I feel like a piece of shit.  He licks ice cream and spits it out so he gets to taste but no calories.  Meanwhile I’m here stuffing my face with carbs and chips and beer.   How can we be more like Gabe?

12:21
Eno Sarris: curve wrecker.

12:22
I am the walrus: Former prospects ss. Who has the best career–Mondesi or Profar?

12:23
Eno Sarris: Guess I’m going with Mondesi. Atrocious plate discipline stats, but probably more power than post-injury Profar.

12:23
Gil : What will Carlos Rodon amount to?

12:24
Eno Sarris: I still see ace upside, and a likelihood of reaching it. If healthy, which is probably an asterisk you can put on any statement about any pitcher.

12:24
Bert: Not a lot of good options for the Cards to improve via trade if Donaldson is unavailable.  What do you see them doing?

12:25
Eno Sarris: Do their best on Stanton, if not, go back to their depth-based team again.

12:25
CamdenWarehouse: Was your unsophisticated bunting metric that fewer sac bunts are better?

12:25
Eno Sarris: Yes. that’s no good. If the third baseman is playing far back, a bunt can have a positive effect in bringing him forward, even if it’s just a sac bunt in the box score.

12:26
Enrico Polazzo: Would you rather pay Davis/Holland big bucks or trade a top 100-125 pitching prospect for Colome?

12:26
Eno Sarris: Colome? Worried about the health of both of those relievers, for different reasons.

12:26
Jeff: Boras says Bryce would consider discussing a contract extension with the Nationals. Last year, the Nationals managed to reach an agreement with Strasburg who is also a Boras client. Is this a real possibility or is Boras just lying to be nice?

12:27
Eno Sarris: He wants $400million, probaby fine if Nationals give it to him.

12:27
Mike: When do you think Senzel comes up to the Reds?  What’s his fantasy outlook next year?

12:28
Eno Sarris: Probably some time next year, though maybe not until they trade someone, depending on who’s playing shortstop and third and second. I do think Senzel can play second, so if they think they’re building a pitching staff, maybe he breaks camp with the team.

12:28
Mark: Chance Chad Green actually starts for the Yankees this year? Can he be an effective starter?

12:28
Eno Sarris: Just doesn’t trust the splitter and I don’t trust fastball/cutter/slider guys to start yet. I think he’s the 100 IP reliever every team is looking for.

12:29
Javy : What would you do if you were the Cubs this offseason?

12:30
Eno Sarris: What they do every year: look for pitching, high and low.

12:31
Enrico Polazzo: What do you see Orlando Arcia being? Will he ever get OBP over .330, 20 HR, 20 SB?

12:31
Eno Sarris: Doubt it on homers, maybe a little contact improvement can get him to the OBP, SB should be doable.

12:32
JP: how much do you like corey ray long term?

12:32
Eno Sarris: Not much. Should’ve shown something by now as a 23 year old.

12:32
DJ: Any under the radar relievers on your mind who may become closers next season?

12:35
Eno Sarris: Brad Boxberger? Keone Kela. Frankie Montas. Drew Steckenrider. Blake Parker (if he’s not one now). Sandy Alcantara?

12:35
Javy : Going to start a fantasy baseball league for my 9 year olds little league team as a team builder/fun thing for the team. What format would you recommend for little guys to get them hooked?

12:35
Eno Sarris: head to head for trash talking. Simple five by five.

12:36
Bert: More likely to hit 30 HR next year- Mazarra or Joc?

12:36
Eno Sarris: I think Mazara more likely to play every day so I’ll take him.

12:36
Bill: Phil Maton, Chad Green, Kyle Barraclough, Adam Morgan – are any of them possible closers

12:37
Eno Sarris: Bearclaw, maybe Morgan. Maton as likely as anyone else in there, I guess I put him second.

12:37
LegallyEagle: Should every injury prone pitcher (example: Alex Cobb) be converted to being a reliever?

12:37
Eno Sarris: No, not every pitcher responds better to being used that way.

12:38
James: Will we see bullpenning in the regular season for back of the rotation types?

12:38
Eno Sarris: Mets are talking about it. Might see more aggressive removals of lesser pitchers, and more up and down 100 IP types.

12:38
barves: Did you see a Touki curveball live?  If so, did something happen in your pants?

12:39
Eno Sarris: It’s beautiful. High spin high velo curve and four-seam and he told me he likes his changeup best. I’m in.

12:39
stever20: were you surprised in the margin for the NL Cy Young award?  Thought Scherzer would win, but not 27-3 in 1st place votes.

12:40
Eno Sarris: Thought Kershaw would get more first place votes, maybe, but when they are so close in quality and then Max has quantity nailed…

12:40
Henry: Should the Padres be in on Hosmer (LH bat, young enough to fit in window), or Cozart (bridge for Tatis, possibly move to 3rd), or should they look to take chances on high upside prospects and suck for at least another year?

12:41
Eno Sarris: No on the first, but if it’s three years and not a ton of money, they should spend their major league money on players they like, and I like Cozart. Either he helps them win some games or he becomes a trade chip.

12:41
TylerD: Thoughts on Luiz Gohara? I see a lot of CC Sabathia in his size and delivery. Does he have the same ceiling as CC? If not, what’s holding him back?

12:42
Eno Sarris: Command, and ability to show that plus changeup consistently.

12:42
Sliding Scale: Pretend the Cards land Stanton without parting with Reyes or Weaver.  If Reyes Weaver and CMart pitch like #1-2s next year, they’re equal to the Cubs, right?

12:42
Eno Sarris: They could exciting really quickly with a star bat in that lineup.

12:43
Jaff: If the Red Sox get Stanton should they try to swing a Jackie Bradley for Brandon Belt trade?

12:43
Eno Sarris: If only so we can all see how many homers Belt would hit in another park.

12:43
Shawn: As a Red Sox fan, the idea of trading for Giancarlo makes my pants get tighter. Also, as a Red sox fan, the idea of trading for Giancarlo terrifies me

12:43
Eno Sarris: A good way to sum up the issues, as much as I like going to get him.

12:44
Jojo: Are you selling low on Lester in dynasty? My roster is in win now mode but man his season was frightening. Thanks Eno, love your work.

12:44
Eno Sarris: I might try to throw him in to something to get another win now piece, probably can’t use him to get a pitcher, wouldn’t make sense.

12:44
Santino: Days away from boy #2 breaking out.  Any tips?  Also, sell high time on Bregman and Schoop?

12:45
Eno Sarris: I’d sell high on Schoop, and your life. Two boys has been a frigging ride. Always someone crying or yelling or sprinting, somewhere.

12:45
Eno Sarris: I guess it’s this: Try as hard as possible to stick to your rules early on with the second one, because it’ll only get harder.

12:45
ATCQ: Are you the high man on Lance Lynn?  Seems like most FG/MLBTR staff prefer Cobb, but I remember you saying the opposite.

12:47
Eno Sarris: I guess I am. Lynn scores well by a command metric Perpetua and I came up with, better before his surgery, he has a bunch of different fastballs, and the movement and velo on his breaking balls suggest to me that he could go to them more as he ages to prop up the K%. I’d trust him for innings more than Cobb at least.

12:48
Richard: Rather than overpay for Hosmer, shouldn’t teams look at acquiring Castellanos?  He’s destined for 1B, and like Hosmer is a launch angle tweak away from superstardom.

12:48
Eno Sarris: That Detroit gun is a bit hot, so I’d take some of those EV readings with a grain of salt. Teams also rather spend money than prospects, I guess.

12:49
billy: Whit Merrifield or Ozzie Albies for the next 3 years (OBP league)

12:49
Eno Sarris: I’m not reasonable about Ozzie Albies.

12:49
Raindog: Steamer projects Jaime Garcia for 2.2 WAR.  That’s better than Cobb, Lynn, Chatwood, Vargas, Cashner.  Is he a super bargain?

12:50
Eno Sarris: That’s dependent on him getting his third-most innings in his career at 32, so I’m not sure about that. I’d slot him in somewhere before or after Chatwood.

12:50
DTH: Ever been to Beer Revolution in Oakland? went for the first time last week, 50+ beers on tap and a “no limit on Pliny bottles” sign on the door of the fridge. I thought I had died and gone to heaven.

12:50
Eno Sarris: It’s a great spot. Good food around the corner too.

12:50
Ben: Over the past 20 years, the Twins and As each have 6 division titles, but 0 league pennants. In the same time frame the Marlins have only 1 playoff appearance, 0 division titles, and 1 world championship. The Rockies have 3 playoff appearances, 0 division titles, 1 pennant, and 0 world championships. If a team could somehow choose between those 3 outcomes over the next 20 years, which would they choose?

12:51
Eno Sarris: Consistently making the postseason is my choice. Grew up in Atlanta 1985-1994 though.

12:52
TylerD: Have any dark horse cy young picks for next year?

12:54
Eno Sarris: Not a lot of dark horses winning the last few. de Grom, Paxton in the ‘veteran who stayed health’ role? Castillo, Severino in the ‘young guy making good’ role?

12:54
ATCQ: Reading Eric’s review of STL system, it seems they have less OF depth than is commonly thought, since all their MiLB OF…..kind of suck?  Any thoughts on this?

12:55
Eno Sarris: But they have so many in the major leagues!

12:55
TylerD: Do you have faith that David Price returns to form next year?

12:55
Eno Sarris: I’ll buy. I feel it was a year lost to injury.

12:55
YKnotDisco!?: It’s gotta be the scoops that won the GG for Hosmer, yeah? I mean, what else could it be?

12:55
Eno Sarris: His bat?

12:55
Sonny: Eno baseball is over and it gets dark at 4p! Why do all these brewers insist on heating up stouts to 8.5% and above? Good stout in the 7% or less category for multiple per cold winter evening?

12:55
Eno Sarris: Yeah I’d rather my stout was single-digit myself. now all these Imp Stouts near 13%!

12:56
Guest: Should the Brewers  go after a free agent pitcher or keep the course and develop who they have?

12:56
Eno Sarris: They should buy a pitcher, yes.

12:56
Ray Kinsella: My 4-year-old likes “sour beer”. It’s Trader Joe’s ginger beer.

12:56
Eno Sarris: Love that stuff.

12:56
Sonny: Chad Green gets 100ip so he’s a top ______ fantasy RP?

12:56
Eno Sarris: 15?

12:57
Eno Sarris: It’s a true valuation, and one that will never bear out in any league, so also untrue. Just makes hime a great pick over that third, crappy, barely-closer.

12:57
Matt: Everybody wants to find the next undervalued, upside young SP on the trade market. Who do you think are a couple of names who fit that profile in this winter’s trade market?

12:58
Eno Sarris: Need to see a deeper list, maybe. On our free agents depth chart, I like Chatwood and Henderson Alvarez (super cheap obviously, but he was back up to mid-90s on Rich Hill’s indy ball team).

12:59
Bennybadatroto: Eno! Happy day before weekend! What level of performance do you feel Otani can reach as a pitcher this year with health? Can he match Yu’s first season? Can he pitch as a #1?

12:59
Eno Sarris: I think he’s Yu-ish, but I’m a little worried about depending on a splitter coming into today’s MLB, since the splitter lost more movement with the new ball than any other pitch. So take the Zips Projection (good #2, not with a ton of innings), I guess.

1:00
Stuck on the Sarris wheel: Forgive me if you’ve had this question 79 times already, but how how in the world is a 1-seam fastball gripped? Are there examples beyond Luke Weaver and Joe Musgrove?

1:00
Eno Sarris: I find it fascinating, and I think Weaver brought up Lance Lynn as throwing one, so there’s another name. But the pictures on those pieces is all I have!

1:00
Jstodola: Sale had 7.7 WAR, Kluber 7.3. How can they pick Kluber?

1:02
Eno Sarris: I don’t think these things have to go to a decimal number like that. I guess they round to different numbers, but I’m not mad, even if I’d have voted Sale probably. Kluber got a win from his defense in RA9-WAR most likely, and that probably showed in the voting.

1:02
Cave Dameron: Do you see contracts becoming more opt out heavy, similar to NBA? Where it becomes the norm for players to have multiple opt outs during the contract?

1:02
Eno Sarris: Already happened, right?

1:02
Fire David Forst: The A’s are looking for a lefty reliever and a RH corner outfielder. You look into your magic ball. Which two players fitting those specs do the A’s land?

1:02
Eno Sarris: Better not be Avisail Garcia is all I’m saying.

1:02
The Ghost of Wade Boggs: If I were the Cubs this offseason, I’d probably spend the entirety of it getting used to the multi-sentience, hive mind that comes with being an entire collection of people.

1:03
kevinthecomic: I had a ‘vision’ problem yesterday.  I couldn’t ‘see’ myself getting out of bed and going to work.

1:03
Oklahomabrave: The time Braves have had to wait seems obscene to me.

1:03
Eno Sarris: topical non topical lude.

1:04
John S: if the padres trade hand… who is the closer? yates, maton, scrap heap?

1:04
Eno Sarris: Maton I guess.

1:04
KW: How about this trade package for Chris Archer: Addison Russell, Victor Caratini, Adbert Alzolay. Too high, too low, just right?

1:04
Eno Sarris: Cubs don’t seem likely to trade a hitter like that for a pitcher. Maybe if that Russell piece was different.

1:05
Quadrangular: is felipe rivero a top tier closer next season?

1:05
Eno Sarris: Yes.

1:05
Bert: Brett Phillips had a good year. Good walk rate, good power, good speed. Why doesn’t he get a chance on someone’s big league OF? Doesn’t he profile similar to Domingo Santana?

1:06
Eno Sarris: Big difference was that his exit velo was nothing like Santana’s. xStats doesn’t love him. He also told me he wants to be a 7,8,9 hitter — whoops, he said, NL, so 7/8 hitter. He’s made a lot of changes to his mechanics, so it’s hard to know if he’s clicking now, or if he’s a tinkerer, or if he’s open to coaching. Has seemed lost when I’ve seen him. I’d trade him if I was the Brewers.

1:07
HappyFunBall: re: 9 year old fantasy baseball.  At LEAST do SABR 5×5.  Nip that old school stats learning right in the bud.

1:07
Eno Sarris: Risk alienating them early. Most of us started somewhere and got here.

1:07
Cave Dameron: Do you think it’s possible to have a pitcher be responsible for covering 1B against RHB? Then the 1B can play further from the bag and the 2B can shift to the other side of the infield like for the lefty shift

1:08
Eno Sarris: Maybe with your more athletic pitchers?

1:08
Mark: Does Robert Stephenson’s command/control issues lead him to a bullpen role starting in 2018?

1:08
Eno Sarris: They’ll give him another shot now that he’s throwing two breaking balls instead of trying to throw that change.

1:08
TylerD: Touki was dealt by the D-Backs for Philip Gosselin in 2015. Can you think of a worse deal since?

1:08
Eno Sarris: Even worse, it was mostly to save money.

1:09
Oklahomabrave: Would Anthopoulos trade Freeman?

1:09
Eno Sarris: I don’t think he was brought in to rebuild. He was brought in to trade the right players away in order to win now, wouldn’t that describe what he did in Toronto? They have the prospects.

1:10
Otani: Guess I’m less likely to be a Mariner now that Healy’s at 1st and Cruz’s at DH full time. In your estimation, what non-NYY, LAD team might I land with? Rangers? Twins?

1:10
Eno Sarris: I don’t think Ryon Healy is keeping Otani out of the lineup. They just traded for some international cash.

1:10
Jstodola: What do the Brewers need to be contenders next year?

1:10
Eno Sarris: Pitching.

1:10
Magic 8 Balls: Thoughts on Addison Reed? I think he’d pair up nicely with Kenley in LA. How many years at what cost are you projecting?

1:11
Eno Sarris: 3/25-30? He’ll go to a win-now team sure.

1:11
Sean S. : How crazy am I for thinking Kyle Schwarber could help with the Rockies 1B issues?

1:11
Eno Sarris: The problem is that, if the Cubs trade a major league hitter, they’ll want a pitcher.

1:12
Matt: I’m entering my 6th year of Nelson Cruz ownership in dynasty. After next season he doubles (from 22 to 44, so aside prom age concerns, keepable if production stays). For the last three years, I’ve thought about trading him and held on – to great benefit. Wash, rinse, repeat – or is this the year to cut bait?

1:12
Eno Sarris: He’s 37 and you’re on borrowed time. I’d definitely ask around.

1:12
Seth: What deal do you think the “King Kong of Slug” will get? 210 million seems like Boras is shooting for the moon seeing as what other OF sluggers got last year. Also, what team do you think will sign him?

1:13
Eno Sarris: Boston needs slugging. I think they’ll go for it, and maybe there will be some options that make it look like a nearly $200m deal, but doubt it is that much in actuality.

1:13
emlazar: If the Giants look to shop him around, would Brandon Belt have much of a market with the glutton of 1b FA’s?

1:13
Eno Sarris: I don’t even think the league has a consensus about how good he actually is.

1:14
Jamie: In my Scoresheet NL league I need one of these minor league roster guys to hit big next year: Lamet, Woodruff, Reynaldo Lopez, Mahle.  Which do you see the brightest future?

1:14
Eno Sarris: Lamet but also love Woodruff.

1:14
Matt: If anyone thinks that Hosmer would be super willing to change his swing, ask Eno about his hair.

1:14
Eno Sarris: hah

1:14
Rasta: Dave said Clint Frazier for Stanton (with no money kicked in) would be an overpay by the Yankees. Agree or disagree?

1:16
Eno Sarris: I think it’s about right without looking closely at Frazier’s surplus. If he’s a league average guy, maybe it’s a bit much. But the negotiating position seems like this: If he ages well, he’s worth $400m. If he ages poorly, $300m. To a luxury tax team that loses a second-round pick if they sign an FA but not if they acquire Stanton, they save the value of that pick, around $15m. So I expect the Marlins to get a player/prospect with $45-55m in surplus projected. Of course, the options confuse it, so maybe just $40m.

1:16
Will: Piscotty to Oakland makes too much sense, right!?

1:16
Eno Sarris: Would prefer that to Avisail, and see it as more likely than yelich or Ozuna.

1:17
Matt: Considering that FG lives in the dark ages and still lists Greg Bird as Gregory…are we getting Ohtani, or Otani?

1:17
Eno Sarris: Agent has insisted it’s Ohtani, and we will enter his name into the DB ourselves, I think, so Ohtani. We must be getting Gregory from one of our stat services.

1:17
Friend: Eno…should I watch “Fastball” on Netflix?

1:17
Eno Sarris: yes!

1:18
Sonny: Headed to the Gulf Coast for Thanksgiving, any recommendations?

1:18
Eno Sarris: So Tampa? Gotta go to Green Cycle and Bench. And Cigar city. We’ll have a piece out for this very soon on October.

1:19
Ontilt1377: $10 Bregman or $22 Cole 2017 prices

1:19
Eno Sarris: Bregman.

1:19
Johnathan: Odds of the Dodgers trading Grandal for pitching? Any other contenders besides Boston hurting for a short term (but significant) catching upgrade?

1:21
Eno Sarris: I think they’re good. They went with Barnes in the world series. and backup catchers are everywhere. Rockies? twins? Brewers? Maybe there’s no match here.

1:21
John Olerud: Hi Eno. I sent a question to Jeff and Paul during their “After Dark” chat and got some good feedback, but not exactly what I was looking for (due entirely to some incorrect wording on my part). I was hoping you could provide some additional help. Basically, I’m trying to accumulate a comprehensive sampling of all (or as many) players throughout baseball history who performed at an elite level for consecutive seasons during their short-lived peaks (ideally a peak of three consecutive years, give or take a year or two), but were otherwise mostly replacement-level (or worse) in the surrounding seasons, thus making them unlikely HOF candidates. As an example, I present Kelly Gruber. Do you have any advise on how such a search could be done and refined (i.e. a particular site/database or method)? And would you say WAR is the best stat to go by? Thanks in advance.

1:22
Eno Sarris: Probably use WAR and the age filters. First find guys under 27 that had large WAR. Then do a 27-40 search, no minimums, download that. Vlookup WAR from the second range onto the spreadsheet for the first, and then just subtract one from the other and order descending. Sounds like a good idea.

1:23
Moltar: Gonna be in Denver for the first time in forever, other than Crooked Stave is there a brewery or two I should check out?

1:24
Eno Sarris: Funkwerks. I enjoyed Cerebral in Denver too.

1:25
Matt: Since Dan Szymborski has neglected his chat for week, I’ll leave this here: Anagram for Eric Hosmer: Some HR, Rice

1:25
KW: Are you buying Chatwood as the next Charlie Morton? Throws a similar high-rotation curveball, his velocity was up in 2017 and he should get much better away from Coors.

1:26
Eno Sarris: I’m into him as the best cheap starting pitcher value out there, yes. He’s aware of those things, and couldn’t throw the curve that much at Coors. Even improved his change.

1:26
Jay: Why in the world would Giants want Braun?  They are trying to get a transformational player and build around that.  If they can’t, you try and get a bunch of solid adds or perhaps buy low.  Certainly, they want to get younger – not older!

1:28
Eno Sarris: If Braun is gettable, he’s gettable without giving up much, and he’d be a two-win swing in left field, where the Giants are worst in baseball. the Giants want to compete now and also get better, though, so it might be interesting to trade Panik for Braun and prospects, which does two things while keeping Posey and Bum as career Giants, which they clearly want. It’s hard to get younger without selling those two, and they can’t really sign much if they have about $15-18 mllion in free agency money.

1:28
Ontilt1377: Jake lamb. Hold or try to sell?

1:28
Eno Sarris: Hold. I think his lefty split will mellow one year and he’ll have a career year.

1:28
A cat: So is Chavis now prime trade bait for a bat or 1B, or is he near future DH/2B caddy for Pedroia?

1:29
Eno Sarris: I think he’ll be playing regularly somewhere this year. 1b in Boston if they spend elsewhere, or in a trade to Miami, other destinations.

1:29
Poptart Salad: Healy hasn’t hit sliders or curves on the outside half of the plate, while he crushes fast things middle in.  Is there a reason he can’t take a step toward the plate and make adjustments?

1:29
Eno Sarris: I’ve talked to him about toggling that distance between him and the plate and he’s vehement he hasn’t thought about it, which for some reason makes me think he is thinking about it.

1:30
Cave Dameron: Does Mookie Betts ever top 31 HR?

1:30
Eno Sarris: Doubt it personally.

1:30
Poptart Salad: So wait, you answered the Healy deal from the perspective of the A’s.  Do you like the deal for the Mariners?  Do you give Vogelbach a chance if Healy doesn’t make adjustments vs. right handers?

1:31
Eno Sarris: Yes I like the idea of sending a reliever for a guy that has a bat that’s been 10% better than league average and has some upside remaining!

1:31
JP: Is Jesse Winker being underrated?

1:33
Eno Sarris: Unsure about that power level. That said, the OBP is real, the park is right for that power… He’s good, and if he’s ‘only’ a .450 slugging guy, the OBP makes him very valuable.

1:33
Jeff: Most likely to start the season in a closing role in 2018: Brandon Morrow, Juan Nicasio, Addison Reed, Seung-hwan Oh

1:33
Eno Sarris: Nicasio?

1:33
Lagniappe: What if any of the spin rate data do you see as most predictive?  Does yr/yr drop in 4sFB spin indicate wrist issue?  (Lackey, Turner, Cueto)

1:34
Eno Sarris: From front offices I’ve talked to, I’m fairly comfortable with spin rate drops being an indicator or injury. Of course with Cueto, though, we know there was injury, and maybe he got it fixed.

1:34
Magic 8 Balls: Stanton and $70 mil to Dodgers for Toles, Stewart, Stripling and a mid level prospect or two. Close? Ridiculous?

1:35
Eno Sarris: I think they’ll throw in some cash, yes. I wonder if they can’t get one more impact prospect type, but I love Stewart and Toles, so this isn’t nuts to me at all.

1:35
YKnotDisco!?: If you could put Stanton on any team you wanted, where would that be?

1:36
Eno Sarris: Texas? Baltimore?

1:36
YKnotDisco!?: Do you keep in touch with August? How’s he doing?

1:36
Eno Sarris: Good! Went to pitchfork with him, had a great time.

1:36
Prison Mike: Do you think Lorenzo Cain would be a good fit on the Jays?

1:36
Eno Sarris: The Jays strike me as a team that should rebuild.

1:36
YKnotDisco!?: Did you ever have a beer with Brian Wilson?

1:37
Eno Sarris: No but I would like to and it’s not impossible, considering he’s hanging with my homeboy Dallas Braden these days. I wonder how it would go.

1:37
YKnotDisco!?: Could Beintendi pass as Crawford’s little brother?

1:37
Matt: What is the best stat to use to rate pitchers and why is it balk rate?

1:37
CamdenWarehouse: Gregory Bird sounds like Carson

1:38
TylerD: Would Bob Feller still be an ace in today’s baseball? What would his twitter handle be?

1:38
Eno Sarris: @ithrow99inside

1:38
HappyFunBall: re: 9 year old baseball.  OBP is easier to figure than AVG.  Plus, you’re supposed to be teaching them the value of taking a walk. Lesson reinforcement!

1:38
Fat Steve: What are your favorite Christmas brews?

1:38
Eno Sarris: Pass. I’ll have a BCBS though, a Hardywood ginger stout, just something smooth and dark.

1:39
B: That 7,8 thing from Brett Phillips really rubbed you the wrong way

1:39
Eno Sarris: I mean *I’d* love to be a 7/8 hitter in the major leagues, but it’s a strange thing for a prospect to say.

1:39
TylerD: What’s the missing piece for an Indians World Series victory?

1:39
Eno Sarris: Another try.

1:40
Dennis: If you were the Angels, which second baseman do you target? Would it be best to sign Neil Walker? Trade for Kinsler or Gordon? Try to convince Cozart to move to second? Thank you!

1:40
Eno Sarris: Not sure they have much to trade, or want to. Sign two infielders somehow, or one infielder and a starter?

1:40
BK: you really think they’ll take Maitan from the Braves?

1:41
Eno Sarris: I don’t actually. I’m not sure I can really express why, but I just don’t see them making him a free agent. If there were other players bundled with Maitan, maybe they release those guys.

1:41
Wes: Vlookup is outdated. Learn Index/Match.

1:41
Eno Sarris: I’m outdated!

1:42
Snarfle: The Mets are at least getting interesting. Sandy traded for a ton of relief prospects that he can shuttle back and forth between the majors and AAA, while most of their rotation only faces 18 batters at a time. Add in Lorenzo Cain and a 1B and they’re might be something there.

1:42
Eno Sarris: At least the second part of that last equation is easy in today’s market!

1:42
B: Are you buying any of the Giants top prospects that are close? Beede, Arroyo, Shaw, Duggar?

1:43
Eno Sarris: Maybe Arroyo. But he either has to hit for more power or contact… giving him a pass on power right now because of injuries.

1:43
Marcus Banks: Shame Todd Frazier won’t be back. There’s obviously no place for him on that team but man did he love being a Yankee.

1:43
Eno Sarris: Is it obvious? They need a third baseman?

1:44
Sliding Scale: If what you wrote yesterday is true, there’s no chance the Marlins pay $70M to trade Stanton, right?  A team should be happy to take that contract and probably pay some prospects for the rights to.

1:45
Eno Sarris: Unless teams are all sticking on the ‘ages poorly’ projections, which have him worth exactly his contract. Then he’s only worth $15m or so and they may have to pay $35+m to get a decent prospect or two.

1:45
Eno Sarris: Other thing that’s tricky is that there isn’t a five-win player available for trade or FA, so there is some prospect they have to pay to get the rare player.

1:46
Matt: What are your favorite Christmas bruise?

1:47
Eno Sarris: That one on the toe from the kids ramming cars into it.

1:47
Snarfle: It’s creepy how the eyes follow you, but creepier when they stop.

1:47
Sniff: Who gets the most AB at CF for the Dodgers next year: Taylor or Pederson?

1:47
Eno Sarris: Taylor.

1:48
Snarfle: How good is Cozart? I know his career has been underwhelming, but he was a 5 win guy last year. Maybe needs a power friendly park?

1:48
Eno Sarris: I think good D makes the floor pretty high. I’d say he’s at least league average, and without looking at his player page, I’d go for 2+ wins.

1:48
BeachBoys: I read that at Brian Wilson from the Beach Boys and wondered why in the world he’s hanging out with Braden.  THAT Brian Wilson makes more sense

1:48
Marcus Banks: Lonzo Ball is terrible.

1:48
cj: just releasing bundled guys with maitan isn’t setting a precedent though

1:49
Eno Sarris: We’ll see the allegations, but I’m not sure I’ve heard anything that hasn’t been done before, that teams haven’t been caught for before, and isn’t being done by other teams right now. So the precedent is there.

1:49
Nick S: VLookup is outdated? More like analysis in Excel is outdated. Learn some basic C#.

1:50
Eno Sarris: Every offseason I say I’ll learn Spanish and R.

1:50
zippy: Regarding Yu Darvish to the Twins as a real possibility: Even if he is only a 3.75 ERA pitcher going forward, how much would it change things for teams facing the Twins considering they have had almost exclusively only <7k/9 strikeout pitchers for years?

1:50
Eno Sarris: I think he’d be a big deal to teams like the Twins and Brewers.

1:51
TylerD: Kevin Gausman had a rollercoaster of a season. Will he ever put it all together? Will that third pitch ever develop?

1:51
Eno Sarris: Breaking ball really took off in the second half. Could be a good year to buy.

1:51
YKnotDisco!?: Fill in the blank: You, Wilson, Braden, Burrell and A-Rod walk into a bar…. The bartender says…?

1:52
Eno Sarris: You guys can sit where you want but make sure your lawyer sits with his back to the rest of the bar.

1:54
E: Should the Milwaukee Brewers embrace their moniker and start brewing their own beer at the stadium?

1:54
Eno Sarris: they did do something with Thames and Knebel brewing a beer, but not at the park. It’s a good idea.

1:54
Nate J.: I’M GOING TO BE A DAD!!!

1:54
Eno Sarris: CONGRATS!!!

1:55
Milk & Cookies: Are you picking and answering questions, or is someone there helping you parse the questions as they come?

1:55
E: Ft. Lauderdale beers?

1:55
Eno Sarris: Just me.

1:55
Eno Sarris: Isn’t Funky Buddha down there?

1:55
Fat Steve: How often do you have a beer while doing these chats?

1:56
Eno Sarris: It’s eleven AM here, so I haven’t done it yet… Oh really early on I did once because I was still doing this on the East Coast. So, once in seven-plus years!

1:56
Eno Sarris: And… man. its nearly 11. I gotta go! Thanks for hanging out.

1:57
Eno Sarris: homers everywhere.

We hoped you liked reading Eno Sarris Baseball Chat — 11/16/17 by Eno Sarris!

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With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.

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Dave T
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Dave T

Regarding Jeter, I think that the perception of him as a player is secure and unchanged even if he ends up being a train wreck as an executive. See this list, for example, which is heavier on pro sports other than baseball – https://www.si.com/more-sports/photos/2012/04/23-0good-players-turned-bad-execs#11

Nobody out there is re-evaluating the playing careers of Michael Jordan, Wayne Gretzky, Isiah Thomas, or Elgin Baylor because of their failings as executives or coaches.