Eno Sarris Baseball Chat — 1/26/17

Eno Sarris: when your long time friend says she’s working on more conscious world neo soul, you wonder what she means

Henry: What does that even mean

Eno Sarris: it’s that kind of music!

ChiSox2020: Do the Nats add to their bullpen before opening day?

Eno Sarris: Maybe in season. David Robertson is the obvious one, but maybe the asking price is too high? Joe Blanton is the obvious free agent.

Eno Sarris: Sorry for the delay! Some sort of connectivity thing.

Maxamuz: Am I going to regret not keeping Alex Bregman at $8?

Eno Sarris: Definitely not.

John: Which Baltimore slugger has the better year Trumbo or Davis?

Eno Sarris: Davis is projected to be much better. Big question is how much 2017 Trumbo is going to look like 2016 Trumbo.

Boone Logan: I throw 97 from the left side. Why haven’t I signed yet? Just talked to the Cubs. Good fit?

Eno Sarris: Just more preference for the kids, but something has to give.

CaptBaldy: With Greg Holland signing in Colorado, is he the favorite for save chances there now or does Adam Ottavino get a chance to finish games there?

Eno Sarris: Ottavino favorite until we see the old velocity from Holland again.

Larry David: Hello Eno. Thinking about moving my Albies for his Eloy in a points league keeper. Have both positions covered but I think Eloy has a much higher ceiling fantasy wise.

Eno Sarris: I think you’re right and I like Albies. One caveat: steals are really hard to find in fantasy dynasties because they are a young man’s game.

ChiSox2020: Is Tim Anderson the White Sox long term answer at SS or should they be willing to take on more SS prospects?

Eno Sarris: Always willing to take on a shortstop prospect because they can play other positions later on.

Brad: Looks like Kersahw and scherzer are only 2 pitchers that would go in top 15 of draft. What would you say if someone drafted Thor top 15 overall? Thanks.

Eno Sarris: I won’t own any of the three I guess.

JV: How bad is a top 4 of Price, Felix, Nola and Wainwright (with Jansen, Feliz and Kintzler as closers) in a 15 team league?

Eno Sarris: Bottom third but with a little upside.

Nick: Hey Eno. Should I keep Mazara or Brantley? OBP and TB. Would be able to hold on to Mazara for the next 5 years, Brantley for next 4. What does Mazara’s upside look like? Thanks!

Eno Sarris: Mazara for sure.

Eric: Madson going to close this year?

Eno Sarris: Yeah but three guys will get saves for that team.

RMR: If the reports of the Pirates, Yanks, Stros and others essentially low-balling the White Sox in terms of offers for Quintana are true, what do you do if you’re Rick Hahn? Take the best offer and avoid the risk of carrying him into the season or hold and hope for better offers at the deadline?

Eno Sarris: You’re in the driver’s seat because you own him for so long.

James: Two questions. One, is machine learning the foundation of most teams’ analysis? And two, are differentiated data sources such as player physicals, swing path, and advanced movement tracking the most important things teams should be doing right now?

Eno Sarris: I don’t know if most, but probably the more advanced teams are using it. The problem with those data sources is how complete are they. What do you have for every player and what do you have for ones that come through your minor league parks or your major league one.

JV: How do you feel about Nova in Pittsburgh for a full year?

Eno Sarris: Eh.

Josh: My coworker keeps talking up James Paxton like hes the next hottest thing. I keep telling him hes going to be the next Clay Bucholtz that has flashes of good stuff but only for a handful of starts before he goes on and off the DL. How do you feel about Paxton?

Eno Sarris: Closer to your coworker.

The Decadent Moose: Fight the power, Eno.

James: We often see Wall Streeters move over to baseball front offices. Is it safe to assume some front offices are as advanced as quantitative hedge funds?

Eno Sarris: Except they don’t pay half as well.

Erik: Why do we use different words for control and command? Control is supposedly the ability to throw strikes, and command is the ability to throw the ball where you want within the strike zone (or outside it). I get that you can have control without command, but you definitely can’t have command without control, right? If so, aren’t they really not two separate concepts? Isn’t command just “really good control”?

Eno Sarris: I guess so. I think offspeed and breaking pitches are a confounding factor. How much can the average pitcher ‘command’ those? In those cases, having good control might lead to better outcomes — i.e. a nasty slider that’s in the zone.

Eno Sarris: Rather than trying to place that slider right off the outside corner. Stuff itself is a confounding factor.

Frank: What does spin tell us that movement and velocity can’t?

Eno Sarris: We’re all trying to figure that out. I think there’s got to be something about deception in there. One front office person told me: it’s harder to pick up the ball with higher spin.

Sloppy Joe: From a can, or homemade?

Eno Sarris: Not a huge fan either way.

David: How’s the poop situation today?

Eno Sarris: More solid, not in my pants.

The other Kyle: Know you’re generally against spending big on pitching, but what about Kershaw? I have him at $3.90 (or $39 in $260 cap) in NL-only league..i suspect he’ll go for at least that, if not more, at auction…or I also have Max at 3.10…either worth keeping at those prices?

Eno Sarris: He’s *worth* that. Max probably too. But then you have $70 gone on two pitchers…

The other Kyle: % chance Ramos is Mia closer to start the season? % chance Ramos is Mia closer at end of the season?

Eno Sarris: 90%. 40%.

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: With his injury risk and existing playing time, should the Rays keep De Leon in AAA to avoid super 2 or start him in the rotation? (Also, a tentative 2018 rotation of Archer-Snell-Odorizzi-De Leon-Honeywell is worth salivating over!)

Eno Sarris: If Cobb is ready, definitely this will happen. Andriesse will be the skipped fifth starter for the first month.

Erik: I’ve noticed in Eric’s scouting reports that no one is projected for 80 control, and I’m pretty sure no one is even projected for 70 control, while most other tools have a small group projected to be elite. Why would it be impossible to project 80 control if it’s possible to project 80s for other tools?

Eno Sarris: What if the problem is that the guys projected for 80 control don’t have enough stuff to show up on the scouting report and aren’t favored by the scouts? The Kyle Hendricks problem? Better question for him, I’m not casting aspersions on his scouting ability.

E5: Every Eno Chat: Commenter – “Are you drinking a beer right now?” Eno – “Well, it’s 9am on the West Coast.” Me – Looking down at my open beer here in SF “He didn’t really answer the question.”

E5: Are you still in NYC? How was the meet-up/launch? If you ARE in NYC still, are you drinking a beer right now?

Bork en Espanol: Hola, amigo.

Eno Sarris: 50/50 interlude.

Joe: In his chat yesterday, Dave said that pitching prospects with good command and good change-ups who don’t have a killer breaking ball tend to be overvalued while those with the big curve and big fastball, but poor command and poor change-ups tend to be overvalued? Would you agree? If so, does that mean that maybe scouts give pitching prospects too much credit when “projecting” that they’ll develop the change?

Eno Sarris: If that was true, it’s certainly in the middle of changing very quickly. Look at all the pitchers the A’s have acquired, and how the Dodgers are working.

The Inbetweener: What piqued your interest into pitch types/grips? Did you pitch growing up?

Eno Sarris: I was really bad at baseball and they never let me pitch in real baseball. I think Dan Straily’s story was what hooked me.

Gary: Is Austin Jackson an upgrade over Abraham Almonte?

Eno Sarris: If healthy.

Rick Markakis: Does Nick Markakis have a chance to be the first 3000 hit player to get less than 5% of the vote on the HOF ballot?

Eno Sarris: 1889 hits, 33 years old, one win player, I’d give him like a 5% chance of getting to 3000 or less.

v2micca: Let’s say Chris Sale goes on to average 5 WAR per season for the next three years. How good would Moncada and Kopech need to be for Red Sox fans to feel they got the worse side of that deal?

Eno Sarris: Well they paying Sale a good amount. Not only is there the money they are paying him, but they still on the hook for $30m+ of Moncada’s deal.

Andrew: Who do the Mets add to their bullpen? Please let it be someone….

Eno Sarris: I think every fan of every team is hoping for a Joe Blanton signing, which is a v strange turn of events.

Matt: Jake Lamb and Lorenzo Cain at equal contracts ($5 in year three – double to $10 after). How far off is that trade. I assume the side giving Cain needs to add more, but a draft pick should cover that, right?

Eno Sarris: Sure but I still want Lamb side.

Gsellmanmanman: Brother Eno, Duffy or Pax this year? Duffman going 25th in NFBC, K-Pax 55th…

Eno Sarris: Give me thirty picks.

Eric: Do you think Robertson bounces back or does he end up losing his closer role?

Eno Sarris: Even if he doesn’t bounce back all the way he’s keeping that role until the deadline.

Matt: What are your thoughts on Tom Murphy as a fantasy C next year?

Eno Sarris: who

Eno Sarris: just a joke. Ask Sporer about it. Any Colorado catcher is useful as a second catcher at worst.

Matt: Hey Eno, what’s your take on Felix this year, you think there’s any chance he bounces back to the 2014 level or should we expect further decline? could he be this year’s verlander?

Eno Sarris: Verlander’s stuff was closer to his real stuff than Felix’s is right now. I don’t see much better, honestly.

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: What corner infielder fits the Rays best for 1B, assuming Miller shifts to second?

Eno Sarris: It’s not Franklin at second?

Eno Sarris: speaking of poop, this is good poop

Aledmys Diaz: Am I good?

Eno Sarris: Offensively.

v2micca: How regains more of their 2015 value this year, Heyward or Harper?

Eno Sarris: Harper gonna ball.

Maxamuz: Not very high on Bregman eh? Any reasons?

Eno Sarris: Oh I read that wrong. You are going to regret it v much.

Mike: What beer goes best with a lude?

Eno Sarris: Something you can pound because these interludes are short.

Duke: The fact that Fangraphs has the projected wins for the LAD to exceed the World Champs is absurd. I’ve talked to many people and not one even hesitated when asked which of these two teams will win more games this season. What say you?

Eno Sarris: Look at how the depth charts work. We slot guys in and give them time based on their quality and a guess at how healthy they will be. The Cubs have no starting pitching depth. The Dodgers have ten starting pitchers. Teams use ten starting pitchers on average in a given year. Who do the Cubs have between Anderson and the tenth slot? It won’t matter if there horses are healthy, and then it’ll look bad. But going into the year you have to guess that every team is going to work like the average team has worked in the past.

Erik: Who has a better shot at the playoffs in 2018, the Braves or the Phillies? And which team will be better once both young cores have fully developed?

Eno Sarris: Phillies closer to contention, and I’ll take their guys that are close now. Braves have to have some lower minors / younger minors guys *hit* and I’m generally skeptical of those players until I see something in Double-A.

mike sixel: First, thanks for the Arizona Wilderness rec. yummy. Second, if the offer was really only De Leon, would you have traded Dozier?

Eno Sarris: No, I don’t think I would have.

Matt: Can Nola slot in as a #3 fantasy pitcher?

Eno Sarris: yes.

Chris Bosio: Who’s going to be my 5th starter? Montgomery or Anderson?

Eno Sarris: Montgomery

Eno Sarris: unless they going to play some game with innings and starts, since neither is good for 200.

v2micca: Kevin Maitan is already showing up in top 50 prospect lists without playing a single inning of professional baseball. Am I wrong in thinking this feels premature?

Eno Sarris: Most prospect lists are about upside and future projection. Okay, all, at least now.

E5: My daughters home sick. But she’s not acting sick and could have gone to school. Is it possible I just wanted to skip out on work (she’s only in pre-school so it’s not that big a deal)

Eno Sarris: In that case, I’m normally like GO TO SCHOOL I NEED A REST

Joe: I’m going to tell you a few facts about a pitcher. He had a CSAA of 1.5% in 2016, to go along with a DRA of 3.93. He has a change-up that looks almost exactly like Chris Devenski’s in shape and velocity, and he had an 18% whiff rate with the pitch last year. Overall, he had a SwStr% of 9.7% last year. He’s 24 years old, Okay. That pitcher is John Gant. Are you surprised?

Eno Sarris: Not super surprised since I did that piece on finding the next Hendricks and Gant showed up. I’d be interested in defining that shape and velocity against the fastball and seeing if that changed things, but Gant obviously has something going for him. Good command with those mechanics seems impossible though.

v2micca: regarding your pay comment, do you think baseball can keep salaries for quantitative types depressed indefinitely, or will eventually too many industries start competing for their services?

Eno Sarris: I think it’s creeping up from what I can see.

Brendan: How horrible is it that Bruce is still on the Mets?

Eno Sarris: Looks like most of the league agrees with our assessment of his defense or he’d have some trade value, no? They should have traded him for any reliever.

Biscuit: So does it make more sense to build your team to match your extreme park factor (sluggers in COL, Pitchers and D in SF) or to go against the park factor?

Eno Sarris: I think it makes sense to adjust your park to make it more neutral, like Seattle, San Diego, and New York did.

Dave Stewart: You nerds don’t know what your talking about

Joe: Is there anything that pitchers can do to increase their spin rates (ie. can it be learned)? Are there characteristics that are common to pitchers with high spin rates (eg. long spindly fingers)?

Eno Sarris: No, from what I’ve seen you can only adjust your slot so that you harness more of the spin in the right way. Low spinners should drop down to get more sink and fade from low spin, and high spinners should up the slot to get more ride. Driveline looked into finger length, didn’t find anything, but the n was small.

Matt J: Assuming agents and players don’t object, how would you view a 3-man rotation, each going through order once and have bullpen finish game. Stock roster with mid-rotation guys that can get 9 outs each

Eno Sarris: Can’t get past that first assumption.

E5: I love beating my kids in games and then yelling “Who’s your daddy!” almost as much as I like insulting my brother with “your mama” jokes.

Biscuit: Dudes who go into the stall next to you, making those under-the-breath grunts and breathing all heavy while they poop – they are the real monsters.

JT: I hate everything.

Eno Sarris: Okay now we’re rolling.

E5: Any interest in Rob Whalen in SEA? Plenty of K’s and a good park.

Eno Sarris: I had to check his page because Plenty of Ks didn’t seem to jive with my memory of him. I guess he did have a little spike. Not sure that’s sustainable.

Choo Choo: Think Dyson holds the closer job in Tex, or does Bush push him out. Or Kela or Jeffress?

Eno Sarris: He’s pretty high floor. Bush is the guy if he loses out.

RK: I thought you lived in Iowa? When did you move away?

Eno Sarris: Iowa huh. Negril, Hamburg, Atlanta, Mountain City, Vero Beach, Boston, Palo Alto, San Francisco, London, New York, Jersey City, New York, Palo Alto but never Iowa.

Choo Choo: Boone Logan to Texas now that Diek is out.

Eno Sarris: Man hate to lose a colon like that. I mean a good arm.

E5: I’m getting kind of geeked about Green in NY. Temper my 3.50/1.2 Expectations.

Eno Sarris: He’s probably better than the last Green(e) because he showed better Ks and could throw that splitter.

Bruce: When are you going to go on with Maddog to argue about something?

Eno Sarris: One of my favorite moments on that show was Andy McCullough asking him “why are you yelling at me?”

Nelson: Would you have more passed balls catching Dickey or Chapman?

Eno Sarris: I think just reacting and not having the capacity to anticipate would mean I’d lose more Chapman balls. Also, fear.

Snowflake: I am eating my boogers. Right. Now.

Eno Sarris: Good, good, the plan is coming together.

Maxamuz: BTW – Yahoo Fantasy Baseball opens up today. Typically around 3pm EST.

Bruce: How to players practice for batting againt 100mph fastballs? Pitching machines?

Eno Sarris: They are getting better.

Joe: Generally speaking, do you think pitching outside rather than in a dome makes a knuckleballer more effective, less effective, or has a negligible effect?

Eno Sarris: Less effective if I had to guess. Path of knuckler seems vulnerable to wind.

Q-Ball: So, if as Sawchik’s article says, pitchers avoid Coors if they can, do hitters FAVOR the Rockies when considering FA? Or does everyone just avoid Coors? Or are they avoiding the Rockies?

Eno Sarris: He’s *definitely* correct about pitchers avoiding the place like the plague. I think hitters don’t love it either because a ton of them understand that the park effects might be dinging them more than they should be.

Black Beard’s Delight: Went to Southern Tier brewery over the weekend. I was projected for 4 beers, drank 6. What do projections know!?!

New York: ARE YOU IN ME, ENO??!!??

Eno Sarris: I am! Launch party tonight at Threes for October. These guys are going to play an October-presented show this year. They’re okay. They are not playing tonight at Threes.

Eno Sarris:

Tom Murphy: Baseball Catcher: Hello Fellas that was a great game of based ball. Would anyone like to accompany me to a building for human food? Being real people is great!

E5: Hundley in SF? Yes please!

Eno Sarris: Couple of nice low dollar moves in Hundley and Hwang.

2-D: Someone asked a legit Nick Markakis question, what is happening

Eno Sarris: blame the guy eating boogers.

JT: Finally the year to ditch Jose Bautista in a dynasty? SOBBING

Eno Sarris: HOLD ON FOR ONE MORE RUN

M: Moncada overrated? K’s 30% in AA. Not many players that k that much are good in majors. Best case J Upton of he doesn’t fix k rate?

Eno Sarris: I was thinking J Upton with infield ability recently. But Moncada’s K rate has fluctuated so I’m not sure we know his true talent ability there right now.

dominik: There was an article in ESPN on how mediocre veterans are a dying species because gms have realized that they can fill those spots with minimum salary players and save those 6m or whatever the veteran bench player would cost. Has the players union hurt itself by neglecting young players rights and focusing on veteran rights (no salary cap…). I understand the vets have more power in the union and the vets what the bigger share of the cake but the way it is only the top vets benefit by getting monster contracts but the market for the mediocre vets gets bad by the supply of cheap young players. Shouldn’t the vets be interested that young players get more expensive so that vets get more desirable again even if that means that a few superstars make a little less money?

Eno Sarris: Short answer: yes.

Eno Sarris: The very best vets get paid, but the others get screwed.

Erik: Starting pitching depth seems like just the thing Epstein would have spent money on, given that he has plenty to spare. Instead he’s hardly spent any. Why hasn’t he addressed this? On a similar note, shoud he regret not picking up Hammel’s option?

Eno Sarris: There are actually a couple names left out there. Unless he thinks hes’ got some internal tricks up his sleeve. I guess Z might be okay.

sabrtooth: Related to LAD vs. CHC predicted records: the NL Central looks pretty competitive, so even if the Cubs are actually a better team, they might not have a better record.

Compton: John Wockenfuss had the highest wRC+ of any catcher from 1980-1989? That’s my question. The answer is “yes, yes he did,” but I still feel compelled to ask.

“snowflake” “trigger”: I’d give Markakis a 100% chance of 3000 or less hits

Matt: Hi Eno! Tell me good things about new Giants signee Hwang.

Eno Sarris: Eh, actually he’s probably not that amazing — his power peaked in 2015 and was otherwise average-ish — but if he’s a capable right-handed third baseman, that team could use that sort of player. Especially if Nunez can play any outfield.

tommy lasagna, sr.: never headbutt a scared cat.

Sandy Kazmir: If you were wrong about something how many articles would you write to explain to everyone why you were actually right?

Eno Sarris: You must have me confused with someone else. I’ve admitted I’m wrong many, many times.

Andrew: How do you rank Cotton, Manaea, Gray, and Graveman?

Eno Sarris: That order, but I might quibble with the middle two.

Matt: You walk into a restroom. There are three empty urinals on the wall. You pick the middle one. You are a) a jerk or b) a visionary?

Eno Sarris: Good opportunity to meet people.

Erik: If you build to your park, does that give you a bigger advantage at home than disadvantage on the road? Or do they have to mathematically cancel out perfectly?

Eno Sarris: I think there’s been research to show that it hurts you overall.

Eno Sarris: Petti did the research. He might have updated it though.

Ty Blah: You gave me Adam Conley last season and I’m still hanging on as a believer. Is Ty Blach the best I can hope for as a deep sleeper this year?

Eno Sarris: He’s boring but it might be useful boring.

Richie: They’ll start with Anderson rather than Montgomery, presuming Anderson’s healthy. Veteran always gets the first nod. It’s an etiquette thing.

Eno Sarris: I can get behind this. If Anderson is healthy to start the season.

Hank: What makes you a fan of Soroka? You seem to be one of the highest on him.

Eno Sarris: Movement, decent velo, good command of fastball. I believe in the secondaries.

J.P. Crawford: When do I become an everyday starter?

Eno Sarris: Some time this year.

Snarfle: Did you ever have a Jamaican accent?

Eno Sarris: It was my first ‘language.’

Hunky Dory: How do you get to live in so many cool places?!?

Eno Sarris: Crazy parents that were in hotel business.

Snarfle: Adam Rosales. Why not.

Eno Sarris: That’s the A’s motto.

tommy lasagna, sr.: mother in law found a wet sock in the shower. first thing I thought of when she asked about it was the shaggy song “wasn’t me”.

Biscuit: Those visits to the doctor always get me when they ask ‘How many drinks do you have per week” and I of course say “5 beers or so” but we both silently know the “or so” is referencing he other 10 beers.

Snarfle: The real question is, what was the deal with Todd Hundley? I mean, what was up with that guy?

Matt: LOL at people implying a J Upton outcome for Moncada is not great.

Eno Sarris: Oh I think it’s still a ceiling projection and it’s still pretty awesome.

Hannah Hochevar: Why doesn’t a decently budgeted team just sign all these solid relievers out there and deal them at the deadline? I know Blanton isn’t Miller/Chapman, but the Yanks revitalized their farm system by dealing those guys and you have to figure the demand will be decent at the deadline again…

Eno Sarris: they gotta sign, right?

Matt: There are few things worse than, 10 minutes before a meeting, needing to decide between finishing my lunch, and pooping.

Eno Sarris: … I’m right there because I have makeup in ten minutes and eight emails to write…

blurgh: Why are you so high on Ryon Healy again? I get the promising power and the surprisingly good contact rate for a power hitter, but his approach is pretty bad and he doesn’t seem to have good pitch recognition. Swings at a lot of balls and takes a lot of strikes.

Eno Sarris: I see a good hit tool that changed his swing to add power. You’re right about approach, but not everyone succeeds with double digit walk percentage.

E5: You have a TV spot today?

Eno Sarris: Yeah I gotta go. I’ll be on MLBNow shortly!

Eno Sarris: Later people.

Eno Sarris: Thanks for coming!