Eno Sarris Baseball Chat — 9/14/17

12:36
Eno Sarris: I am an anemone

12:01
Eno Sarris: I’m here!

12:01
Brad: So which team looks like they made the best trade deadline moves to prepare themselves for the stretch run and playoffs?

12:01
Eno Sarris: I’m partial to getting the best starting pitcher you can, so even if the Dodgers haven’t been amazing, I like them getting Yu and the Astros getting Verlander.

12:02
JD15: What would you bid on Otahni right now in Ottoneu FGPTs?

12:04
Eno Sarris: I wonder if you’ll get both his hitting and pitching points. Fantasy baseball is headed towards a game breaker moment. Otani is Shaq for fantasy baseball. I dunno that I’d want to pay more than 10/15 though. What if he comes over as an OF that pitches sometimes? Or a pitcher that only hits sometimes? Then you’d want him like you’d want a Strasburg or Greinke before he threw a pitch.

12:04
Guest: What are the Giants going to do with Melancon?  With that big contract, presumably he’ll be back as the closer next year?

12:05
Eno Sarris: I don’t think Dyson has done enough to take it outright. They’ll hope it’s a two-headed monster and the other guys take the 6th and 7th.

12:05
Babe Lincoln: You’re a GM.  Congrats!  What would be your (not-going-to-be-overturned-by-MLB) pitch to Ohtani?

12:07
Eno Sarris: I like Cameron’s opt-in/opt-out, but the minute he wrote that, the minute everyone was pitching it to Otani if he wants it. So the pitch has to be: here’s our lovely city, and we win. You’ll be in the playoffs and on TV all the time. If my city had a large Japanese cultural contingent, I might mention that in the context of all the culture my city has to offer.

12:07
v2micca: If Ohtani was a position player with an incredible bat, do you think he would be more inclined to wait another two seasons and cash in as a free agent?  Is the inherent risk of being a pitcher motivating his current decision?

12:09
Eno Sarris: I wonder if the recent injuries have changed his mind. But my experience is that they don’t get paid that awesomely in Japan, so coming over, even if it’s not as much as they would have made coming to America as an FA, it’s more than they would have made, and it’s the biggest stage, and they want to prove that they, and Japanese players, can compete/star/dominate in the biggest league.

12:09
Eno Sarris: I have not spoken to Otani about this, but I have some experience with the NPB, have been to Tokyo around 15 times, worked for a Japanese company, and have interviewed a few guys from the league, both American and Japanese.

12:10
Jake: Giants seem to be betting a lot on players “bouncing back” next year. Do you think this is realistic and who would you bet on for that bounce back?

12:10
Eno Sarris: Cueto could be better. Moore could be unterrible/average. Bumgarner could be healthy all year. Belt could be healthy all year. I think that would make them about average. They need some O.

12:11
Merv Throneberry: Is Smoak just tired from playing every day all day this year or should I be worried about bigtime regression next year?

12:11
Eno Sarris: I think regression is coming.

12:11
Y’llo: So who do you think signs Otani?  Also, if a big market signs him for cheap, it really sucks for small market teams, right?

12:13
Eno Sarris: I bet LA is in the cat-bird seat. SF wouldn’t be crazy, it’s closer to Japan, they’ve had some guys there (SHINJO!), and it’s in the NL. You think NYY, but obviously hitting is important… though you could tell him he’ll hit when he’s not starting. Dark horses are hard to figure here. Maybe someone still has a ton of bonus they can give.

12:14
Nihilist Eno: If you think the Indians win streak is impressive, try to wrap your head around the win streak that death has over every person who has ever lived. Undefeated…..drink beer, watch baseball

12:14
Mundane Ejaculation Eno: I mean it’s no big deal that Cleveland won 21 strai…….OOH YES! YES! YES!

12:14
Glancing Glugnuts: I’d seen an ad for the Guinness Blonde American Lager. Bought a 6pack on a whim to take to a party. Turns out it’s terrible. Of course it was terrible! I’m an idiot.

12:14
Eno Sarris: Mostly mundane but also disgusting: the story of an EnoChat.

12:14
Keith Hernandez: Sup Eno – Asked this question to Dan last week and he said it didn’t make sense for the Mets to do it… but should they consider non-tendering Harvey next year?  Take the 6-7 mil he’s due to make and use that to sign one of the many decent veteran pitchers on the FA market.  Thoughts?  Seems like he’s got nothing left.

12:15
Eno Sarris: I think they have to tender him. 6-7 mill only gets you one of those SP5 types that’s out there, even if you add to it. Harvey has shown something better than all of them and is younger. You pay the price to buy the lotto ticket.

12:15
Guest: Okay, so you’re able to get a hit in 600 PA. How many IP (or batters faced, if you prefer) before you strike out a batter?

12:15
Eno Sarris: Fewer. I’ve seen (okay mostly Jabari Blash) hitters miss in batting practice, but definitely foul it off and pop them up.

12:15
2-D: How would you optimize Ohtani?

12:16
Eno Sarris: Starter who plays RF like four times a week, maybe mostly against lefties. You wouldn’t want him to play every single day he wasn’t pitching, because there are recovery days for pitchers.

12:16
Guest: Sorry Eno, but you are officially now the conduit for all middle-aged men who still hope to make the big leagues one day.

12:17
Eno Sarris: You gave them hope, buddy, so now you will have to take on all their anger when they don’t get a hit in 600 PA.

12:17
Alastar: I have read that Kluber’s fastball might lead to his decline. What is it about his fastball that could create issues?

12:18
Eno Sarris: Man I’ve been thinking about this some more. It’s really weird. It has average movement, average velo (maybe like a half tick up), but sometimes it looks amazing, he definitely is great at front dooring it, and he’s throwing it less often… I think command is the thing that makes it better than the movement and velo.

12:19
Eno Sarris: hole on

12:19
Eno Sarris: ok. people working on the house, bothering me and poop.

12:20
todd: Time to worry about Tyler Glasnow? Just watching him in the MLB is stressful, you can see it in his face.

12:21
Eno Sarris: You know who was the love that hurt me the most? Allen Webster. Dude had great movement on his pitches, great velo… zero command, zero composure. I’m unsure how to value this portion of a pitcher’s production, but it seems meaningful.

12:21
AC000000: I love September baseball for the little substitutions that managers are willing to make throughout a game: pinch-runners actually being used. Double switches and willingness to bring in 2nd and 3rd string catchers. Using “defense only” outfielders earlier in the game and PH’ing for them later if necessary. Am I crazy to think this would be fun year-round? Expanding rosters to 30 year-round would be interesting.

12:21
Eno Sarris: Too many pitching changes imo.

12:21
CamdenWarehouse:

12:21
Eno Sarris: We are all anemones.

12:21
Guest: Did you see this? Going to be super weird asking “Eno” about my bank account. Why didn’t they take us baseball nerds into consideration? https://www.capitalone.com/applications/eno/

12:22
Eno Sarris: I have achieved the singularity. All is it, it me. I’m on your phone, admonishing you for overdrawing your account. I’m in this chat, encouraging you to be silly.

12:22
Brandon M: I’m taking my girlfriend out for her 21st birthday next weekend, and I just recently turned 21 myself. Any recommendations where to take her? A nice bar? Restaurant? Stay at home with some wine?

12:24
Eno Sarris: I think there are plenty of chances to stay at home. If you’ve got the duckets, a nice restaurant. If the wallet is a little lean, do this: research on chowhound and find ‘the best little x and you love x’ and ‘hey there’s this awesome bar/brewery around the corner if you’re up for it after.’ the research and thought can make up for the duckets.

12:24
Eno Sarris: I lasted dated a woman — my wife — in 2001.

12:24
Mario Mendoza: Jorge Polanco???? FG prospect writers always spoke highly of him, but man, he was so bad, and, now, he’s so hot. Did something click? What do expect for 2018?

12:24
Eno Sarris: Maybe that’s what I should write about. Because it’s crazy to me. And I don’t know why.

12:25
Where’s Bork?: Bork?

12:25
Bobbum Man Eno: Bobbum Man sweaty.  Bobbum Man dirty.  Bobbum Man make Dodger equipmunk hurty!

12:25
HappyFunBall: Eno, is it true that Shohei Otani single-handedly held back the sea to allow for cleanup at the Fukushima Daiichi reactor site?

12:25
HappyFunBall: Eno, is it true that Shohei Otani is able to strike HIMSELF out?

12:25
Larry Biggersby: How do you feel about cutting cold players this time of year in favor of hotter ones? (HanRam is the specific name I’m considering)

12:26
Eno Sarris: I’d take a gander at exit velo. Not that it’s everything, but players have admitted to me that a drop in exit velo often means they’re dealing with an injury. You can see rolling exit velo on BaseballSavant, or you can drop the sample to roll on 20 balls in play instead of 50 and see something more reactive by doing a search and downloading the results. If a guy has a drop in exit velo right now, I’d drop em.

12:26
Steed Throbnozzle: Has Neris moved into the middle of the closer pack…good but not quite all there yet?

12:27
Eno Sarris: I think he’s very good, and on a bad team, which is somewhat meaningful for opportunities.

12:27
Jay Little: Brandon Finnegan vs fellow lefty Eduardo Rodriguez?

12:27
Eno Sarris: I’ll take the healthy one.

12:28
Pretty Tony: A couple weeks ago, I said in this chat that my ear had been clogged for five days and that I couldn’t go to the doctor because I didn’t have insurance. Then I asked a question about Miguel Cabrera. By chance, a friend of mine recognized my name in the chat. His wife is a nurse and she recommended a place for me to go. Lo and behold, they fixed me up on the cheap and I’m back in the hearing game. Thank you, Eno. I know you liked Daniel Norris in the past. Any hope for his future?

12:29
Eno Sarris: EnoChat: cleaning ears and bringing people together for years. Norris… it’s command. But his presence isn’t horrible, and his movement is great. I’d be interested in 18-team dynasty type situations.

12:29
Avery: I am the biggest Jesse Winker fan. Please say something about Jesse “Votto” Winker

12:31
Eno Sarris: He’s hitting *more* ground balls than he did in the minors, and somehow hitting for power. I’d expect regression there.

12:31
Tom: Hey Eno, thanks as always for putting the time into these chats! Was wondering if you think Rendon or Devers is better long term?

12:32
Eno Sarris: I suppose it’s Rendon. I’m nervous about the injury still, but he steals some bases and has great power and doesn’t strike out.

12:32
Sonny: My web design experience is admittedly limited but I don’t understand all the hand wringing about how to accommodate a two-way player. I’ll lose my shiz if I stashed this guy for a year and I only get half his production

12:32
Eno Sarris: I think it’s this: they’ll have to have two Otani’s in the game, the hitter and the pitcher.

12:32
Eno Sarris: And then, that means he takes up two roster spots on your team.

12:33
Mark: Love the Sleeper and the Bust podcast!! Should I hold on to Jack Flaherty? I like him alot but im in the playoffs and i want to keep the ERA down.

12:33
Eno Sarris: He’s a streamer right now. That fastball is laser straight.

12:33
Avery: How many breeds of cats can you name?

12:34
Eno Sarris: Lahpsa Aso (is that a dog?), Siamese, Tabby (did I make that up?), Hairless (I’m sure that’s a dog), I’m out.

12:35
Scotty: Which current  Jays September call-up makes the biggest impact next year?  Teoscar Hernandez, Rich Urena, or Carlos Ramirez?

12:35
Eno Sarris: TE-OSCAR

12:35
botchatheny: could you remind me your beer drinking schedule during the week? (avg per day, days off?)

12:36
Eno Sarris: Mondays off, one or two Tuesdays, Wednesdays off, one or two Thursdays, Fridays maybe one or off if I’m at game, if not, three to four and I try to take Sunday easy. Saturdays, wait until five if possible and three to four. So ‘typical’ week is 10-12 maybe? Average is probably higher because what if it’s someone’s birthday or i’m in New York for a beer fest or w/e. Now you are in my beer fridge.

12:37
Art Vandelay: I know the Twins have a rough playoff history against the Yankees, but I feel like a wild card game is exactly the thing to exorcise those demons. I’m here for it. WIN TWINS! WOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

12:37
Eno Sarris: Put it all on Berrios?

12:38
Shohei OTANI: (through interpreter) Why can’t your nerdy denizens spell my last name correctly?

12:38
Eno Sarris: I always thought it was Otani. I dunno.

12:38
Sonny: Between my local brewpub and crafts within 50 miles widely available at my packy I never drink some of the widely available favs anymore. Is a return to regionalism avoidable?

12:39
Eno Sarris: No I think you describe what’s going on in beer anyway. The mid-market, the big smalls, the sammy/stone/lag bunch, they can grow by leaving America, but they’re not growing much more in America.

12:39
Tex: Fulmer had successful surgery – we are told.  Two questions… why isn’t he on the DL?!?  And, would you be really wary about keeping him next year, even if he’s supposed to be ready for spring?

12:40
Eno Sarris: They just don’t need his 40-man spot right now, I guess. I’d keep him as an SP2/3.

12:40
Corb: I’ve seen people talking about how you don’t want to have to carry Ohtani as well as a part time DH, but wouldn’t an AL look at that as a good chance to have a bat-first OF/DH, a good defensive replacement, and give them comfortable room for 13/14 pitchers on the 25man? It just doesn’t feel like AL/NL split is going to be that much of a deal breaker.

12:40
Eno Sarris: Yeah, I mean it might even be good if he didn’t actually hit on pitching days.

12:40
weezy: I realize there fielding errors do not hold the same weight as they have in previous baseball generations, but is there any movement or desire to eliminate them entirely? They still affect things like pitcher arbitration salaries and award voting, and they are a pretty stupid stat.

12:41
Eno Sarris: I’ve had players say we should add ‘team errors’ as a stat, but yeah most people think there’s something broken there to fix.

12:41
Moonlight Graham: Are we ever going to get to questions not related to either the Giants or Otani?

12:41
Eno Sarris: Said at 12:11! I’m catching up!

12:41
Beetle Jones: We have seen Ohtani before.  He was known as Roy Hobbs, the best there ever was.  “Red, I should have been a farmer.”

12:41
David: Yo! Where’s the pre-Pitch Talks meetup at?

12:42
Eno Sarris: At the Independent, just come in early!

12:42
Devil Ray Jay Johnson: Any hope for Jharel Cotton?

12:43
Eno Sarris: I think so. Still gets above-average whiffs on three pitches. They just get spanked in play, and his effective velo can’t get fixed. I think it’s a command thing, but not necessarily where he’s thinking about putting the ball: I think he should think about which direction he might miss, and miss better.

12:43
Keefths: How much do you like Matt Olson ?
How legit is he?

12:44
Eno Sarris: Worst case, he’s a healthy lefty young Michael Morse. Stance looks like his, and there are other similarities. Best case, he’s not far from Cody Bellinger.

12:44
A Tribe Called Kipnis: What do you expect from Lucas Giolito going forward?

12:45
Eno Sarris: I’m still not that in on it. Okay whiff rate, but the Ks and Bbs are meh, the command comes and goes, and the velo doesn’t look like it’s coming back.

12:45
Eno Nothing Jon Snow: The h2h playoffs are dark and full of terror…

12:45
Joe: Did you hear about the Indians’ winning streak?

12:46
A Tribe Called Kipnis: When you watched Boardwalk Empire were you mad that the Enoch Thompson character went by “Nucky” instead of “Eno”?

12:46
Eno Sarris: of course.

12:46
Greg: 538 just wrote a piece about Trout.  What’s amazing is that he’s getting better.  He now has more walks than strikeouts.  How many guys can say that?

12:46
Eno Sarris: remember young Pujols?

12:46
Chris: What is the Red Sox situation as far as bonus money? Could they make a run at him or are they steering clear of these players after the Dice-K fiasco

12:47
Eno Sarris: They spent all but like one or two mill of their ten mill in bonus money. They could be in, because the bonus difference will probably be in the single millions, but I doubt they a front runner?

12:47
Alex: Does Carlos Gonzalez get a major-league deal this winter?  He’s been atrocious, but  he was an average player as recently as last year.

12:47
Eno Sarris: I bet he gets one of those 1/2 year make good deals from a team like Atlanta.

12:48
Tommy Buns: Eno — always appreciate your insights based on conversations with pitchers. A community post recently pointed out that Dylan Bundy’s slider usage dipped significantly in May and June (https://www.fangraphs.com/community/in-dylan-bundy-the-orioles-have-ho…). Dunno if you’ve been able to chat with the Bun-meister, but do you have any idea why he backed off using the slider mid-season?

12:49
Eno Sarris: I think some of the classifications are off on Bundy. I might watch tape instead. I’ve watched games where I didn’t agree with most of the classifications as they came through. His change and slider are similar.

12:49
Babe Lincoln: Why does command decline as a pitcher ages?  I get why velocity would, but command is fuzzier to me.

12:50
Eno Sarris: I think it’s about confidence. It’s about the velocity. When you’re at 94, you put it on the black. When you’re at 91, you throw it a little further out. So I guess I’m saying control may age poorly because of velocity. Command should remain similar. But of course it’s real hard to separate command and control.

12:50
Sonny: Oh no Eno you accidentally have two dates to the prom! Do you try to keep Rhys Hoskins near the refreshments while you do the electric slide with Matt Olson or do you come clean and hope everyone still has an ok time?

12:51
Eno Sarris: Rhys baby Rhys.

12:51
Dunt: I don’t care what advance metrics say, Lucas Giolito has been awesome

12:51
Eno Sarris: I’ve watched some of his starts and can see how you might say this. Certainly looks awesome sometimes. And then the next pitch is a 92 mph middle middle.

12:52
Eno Facts: at 9:19a Eno heroically managed to poop while strangers made repairs to his new home

12:52
Chicks Dig the Long Ball: Castellanos has been quietly pretty damn consistent since his terrible May: .296/.336/.539 with 17 homers. His plate discipline is weird but his K% has been falling all year. I like what I’m seeing moving into 2018 especially if he is going to be their cleanup hitter.

12:52
Eno Sarris: He’s fantasy decent, real life okay.

12:52
Guest: (quickly trademarks and tries to sell “Cistulli” to bank of america)

12:52
Guest: (fails)

12:52
Guest: (tries to sell “Cistulli” to Cistulli)

12:52
Dooduh: The Mets are going to make the wrong decision on Matt Harvey.  There is no way that isn’t going to end badly.  Investing “only $6M” is bad process when the likelihood of a good outcome is pretty low.  And then they will make the inevitable excuses of budget restrictions for not making improvements elsewhere.

12:53
Eno Sarris: He’s coming back from a surgery that maybe fewer than 20 major league pitchers have had. I’m not sure we can say what the likelihood of a good outcome is.

12:53
HGH: are tall pitchers destined to take 5 years to develop if they ever do at all re: glasnow? randy johnson’s fangraphs page is both discouraging and encouraging at the same time

12:54
Eno Sarris: I found some effect but not much of one http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/its-tough-being-a-very-tall-pitcher/

12:54
Hunky Dory: You’re not that old, Eno…how old were you when you got married?

12:54
Eno Sarris: We were together for like seven years before we got married.

12:54
Mario Mendoza: Duckets? You last went to a bank in 1601?

12:54
Eno Sarris: yes.

12:55
Eno Sarris: I actually met my wife by living next to her in a dorm called The Enchanted Broccoli Forest, depicted here

12:55
Eno Sarris: that’s not actually my dorm

12:55
Eno Sarris: okay it is

12:55
99: Is Robinson Chirinos the everyday catcher for the Rangers next year?

12:56
Eno Sarris: Yes. And he’s not terrible.

12:56
jjp: Mets might non tender Harvey and not spend the money.

12:56
Eno Sarris: I mean that’s the other thing that could totally happen. They should spend money.

12:56
Shawn: What is in your beer fridge currently?

12:57
Eno Sarris: All New York stuff. Finback, Greenpoint, Industrial Arts, Plan Bee

12:57
CamdenWarehouse: I thought his agent put out that it should be Ohtani?

12:57
Eno Sarris: Well there you go of course the nerds have it right

12:58
pirates hurdles: Seems like you just make Ohtani eligible at SP and a position. It wouldnt be fair to allow him to get his P hitting stats in a game that he starts when you cant for Arrieta or MadBum. That way you take 1 roster spot and treat him like a P on those days and hitter on the others.

12:58
Eno Sarris: Makes sense, but most games have completely different setups for hitting and pitching, so that’s the coding part.

12:58
Corb: I mean, technically O(h)tani is only spelled correctly as ?? and any romanization is basically approximate. His jersey says Ohtani tho. Sorry to be pedantic

12:58
Eno Sarris: nice.

12:58
Chuck: Miggy Cab’s exit velocity looks fine, but he’s still terrible. He’s not pulling pitches for HRs at all.

12:59
Eno Sarris: Pulling is important, and disappears late, and his park inflates his exit velo.

12:59
Dylan: This is legitimately the first time I’ve seen Otani spelt Ohtani. Mob mentality at it’s finest

12:59
Eno Sarris: Except for on his jersey I guess.

12:59
Sonny: Watching Cotton with Chapman at 3B vs Healy at 3B is a totally different experience. Can you think of a position getting that severe a D upgrade in season bc I can not.

1:00
Eno Sarris: It could be relevant to his outcomes. He gets some of the softest contact in the league, and I’ve seen them roll “pasta diving A”.

1:00
Ethan: In the playoffs how aggressive are you with moves vs. dancing with the one who brought you? Smoak, Shaw, and Alex Wood are looking bad but their season lines are still great enough that I’m hesitant about making any swaps.

1:00
Eno Sarris: I’d keep Wood because park/opponents are probably good for him. Smoak and Shaw are part of an interchangable blob of power hitters right now.

1:01
kevinthecomic: I’m taking Brandon M.’s girlfriend out for her 21st birthday next weekend (either Friday or Saturday, whichever day Brandon M. is not taking her).  Any recommendations where to take her where Brandon M. won’t “accidentally” run in to us?

1:01
PD: Shohei O’Tawny needs to join the Padres.

1:01
Moltar: Mets have already said that they are not making changes to their medical staff, training staff, or their partnership with Hospital for Special Services. If you were a free agent, would that alone scare you away from signing with the team? Would you take the Beltran route and only see private doctors?

1:02
Eno Sarris: You know, I think their problem might actually be internal and communication related? How often is it just what they told us was a… fabrication? Does Terry Collins foster a clubhouse of communication and openness? Does the GM make sure that all players feel welcome to reveal what they are feeling without repercussion?

1:02
Ted: Can I get your fantasy thoughts on Manaea and Nova re: rest of season? Both have been getting knocked around quite a bit, and I’m getting a little tired of running them out there start after start just to kill my ratios.

1:03
Eno Sarris: Drop. Manaea’s spin and velo is down and I’d shut him down myself.

1:03
Travis: Did you know Albies has been more valuable than Devers?

1:03
Eno Sarris: Did you know that I’m in love with Ozzie?

1:03
Kleve: Hi.  Yandy Diaz on the Indians looks to be finally breaking out.  Any insight into his recent success?

1:04
Eno Sarris: angle has changed, and angle changing would be great for this ground-ball hitting exit velo machine, but it didn’t change in the minors so I’m unsure it’s real.

1:04
Prince Wednesday: What do you think Domingo Santana’s ceiling could be? Dude just turned 25 and his oppo power is a thing of beauty.

1:06
Eno Sarris: he’s 25 and doesn’t hit a ton of fly balls. I think other than improving his defense — and that’s more about metrics than actually improving — I’m not sure how much is left. Maybe a tick or two off of the strikeout rate, but only maybe.

1:06
Keith Hernandez: Saw you went to Fuku (pardon my language) at Citi Field the other week.  How was it?  I usually wind up getting the brisket from Blue Smoke BBQ there, but am willing to be open minded.

1:06
Eno Sarris: Eh. I like the breading on the chicken, sando was p good, but it was 12.50 for a sando, had to get fries (which I liked a lot because of the spicing) and it ended up like $20 for fries and the sandwich… it was okay to good, but not sure worth that price.

1:07
2-D: Do you ever have a fantasy league so locked up that you add one of your personal favs late so he can get a ring? Like hell yeah 2011 Fausto Carmona you’re getting the call.

1:07
Eno Sarris: Hah. I HAVE actually kept guys on a roster that I should have dropped but wanted to be on the final roster when I won, I remember doing that with a hurt Cole Hamels one year.

1:07
Sonny: The Mets and Patriots team doctors walk into a bar, everyone dies

1:08
Brian: Who to leave out in a keeper:  Hoskins, Devers, Bregman, Beni, Bellinger?  Can’t keep any over Trout, rizzo, Machado

1:08
Eno Sarris: Damn it has to be… Devers? Hoskins? The other three are too hawt to drop.

1:09
AndyBaesball: Oh man.  2-D’s comment just my week.  Paul Konerko, where you at?!  Your delicious blend of cheap power and durability made all this possible.  YOU DA REAL MVP!

1:09
Dylan: ^^^^^ I’m doing the same thing with Jimmy Nelson, since he basically carried me for a while

1:09
Stupid HBP: How do you rate Bogaerts for next year? He’s been terrible since getting plunked, but wasn’t exactly all-world beforehand

1:10
Eno Sarris: If he’s not going to alter his approach to hit for power, and is not going to steal a ton of bases, I guess I’d value him as a back end shortstop that has a bit more upside than the rest, but also a lower floor than, say, pre-this-year Elvis Andrus.

1:10
Eno Sarris: But I think Elvis is actually a decent guide. Elvis without all the power.

1:10
Steve: you’re saying drop Hoskins over Bregman? LOL

1:11
Eno Sarris: There are no steals in this game. I did actually go straight to Bregman’s page as the first dropper, but if a guy can steal 20 and hit 20, that’s worth more than hitting 40.

1:11
Anthony: So inverse of the Suarez piece you wrote: are there pitchers whose two fastballs are equal in effectiveness, or should every guy really gravitate heavily towards one or the other based on spin?

1:12
Eno Sarris: Just wrote about how Gossett should drop his sinker because of spin and movement, so I think it’s different for every pitcher. Bauer, for example, has gotten a lot from developing a decent two-S he can front door.

1:12
Steve: ok, but guys who steal 20 can go to stealing 0 in a season just like Machado

1:13
Eno Sarris: Is true, and stolen bases age terribly as Zimmerman showed, but here’s a thing: I don’t think Bregman is going to be a power threat that is told to stop stealing. I think he’ll think it’s a big part of his game next year.

1:13
Moltar: re: Mets medical staff, ownership and the front office have a long and sordid history of telling players that they need to “toughen up” or “rub dirt on it” or what not. Even just this season with Matz did they publicly call him out for not being able to pitch. Organizationally, they have a broken culture surrounding injuries, and that’s even before getting in to Barwis, bulking up, and mandatory “voluntary” offseason workout (that players are charged for). That would scare me off as a free agent for sure.

1:14
Eno Sarris: Yes, this is what I’m talking about. It’s not necessarily the trainers or the hospital staff, that hospital is one of the best in America. It’s the way the Mets talk about injury, the environment they foster. There’s still some Tony Bernazard in that org.

1:14
Anthony: So, did Gio Gonzalez get worse at striking hitters out, or did the league just get better? I feel like it’s the former, because the league tolerates high – K hitters now, but it also selects out low – K pitchers.

1:14
Eno Sarris: Yes, the league got better and he stayed the same, which is actually impressive due to age, but not as impressive as it was before because of context.

1:15
Dedgers: Is that Heyward contract a bust yet?

1:15
Eno Sarris: I can’t believe this guy can’t hit for power, especially when EVErYONE is hitting for power. It’s crazy.

1:15
Moltar: The best food at Citi Field is the Pat LaFrieda Steak Sando, hands down. Not cheap but holy crap is it good.

1:16
Eno Sarris: I was headed in that direction and thought, hey I’ll try some Fuku.

1:16
First Man on the Sun: The romaji (Japanese phonetic transliteration of kanji/hiragana/katakana into roman alphabet) of Otani would be ?tani.  So, since that’s maybe not an option for uniforms (?) he’s having them add an h so that the O gets the double stress

1:16
Anthony: I don’t know if you’ve seen Sullivan’s piece from today, but how did scouts miss Corey Kluber? His stuff is ridiculous

1:17
Eno Sarris: He’s added a little oomph to the fastball, and I think he’s front dooring now, so I think people saw a meh fastball and a meh change and thought, this is a one-pitch guy. Then he added the cutter/harder breaking ball and a tick, and showed his command…

1:17
Jeff Wilpon: Bernazard was only a symptom. I am the disease. A disease which will go untreated so I can prove how tough I am.

1:17
Steve: In dynasty, how might you account for the chance that MLB “fixes” the ball back to what it was so that fewer fly balls are HR?

1:17
Matt: “You know what I like about Gio Gonzalez? The league got better, but he stayed the same talent” – Danny Wooderson

1:18
Eno Sarris: I think the thing is this: even if the ball deflates, nobody is stealing bases. Either way, stolen bases have to be a priority, or you punt them, but the easiest way to differentiate yourself is to have them.

1:18
Joe: Rank parks that inflate exit velocity, please.

1:19
Eno Sarris: Detroit inflates, Cincy deflates. more here http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/buying-low-on-miguel-cabrera/

1:19
toki: What’s your list of high profile names that will be making the rounds in trade talk this offseason?  Machado, Dozier, Donaldson, Adam Jones?

1:21
Eno Sarris: Donaldson most likely. Doubt the O’s go. Twins just getting okay. I doubt the Marlins blow it up.

1:21
Sonny: Starlin Marte 2018? Anything?

1:22
Eno Sarris: He’ll be 29… off the juice? If you can only depend on league average BABIP and power, that makes him like a .250/.310/.400 type guy with 12 and 20-30 steals? Still pretty decent, but not top shelf. I think that’s floor type analysis.

1:23
CubFan: Do you think Bird is now labeled with the “injury prone” tag? I’m one of those guys who believe not only do players “own” a certain skill they also “own” their health. I’ll have to make a decision on whether or not to protect Bird at $6 next year in my 12 team AL only league.

1:23
Eno Sarris: I’d keep him, but I’m a big fan and have seen enough analysis that says we are too free with the injury prone tag.

1:24
Mr. Physicist: Exit velocity is measured right off the bat, before friction with the air can have a measurable effect.  It is independent of park factors.

1:24
Eno Sarris: It has to leave the bat before it can be seen as a separate object, so most of the people I work with make a temperature adjustment, though the spread in temp adjustment is not large.

1:25
Scuffy Mcgee: What do you think rhys Hoskins is over a full season

1:25
Eno Sarris: Peak young Jose Bautista?

1:25
Orange WHIPs: Is Zach Davies must own/start for the H2H playoffs? Seems like a lot of luck, but he keeps doing it …

1:25
Eno Sarris: Good matchups, go.

1:26
CubFan: Does Teoscar Hernandez have much of a chance of being one of their starters in the OF to open the season in 2018? And how do you think he fares?

1:26
Eno Sarris: Yes. .250/.320/.450 with 20/10 type work imo. Definitely in on him in ALO.

1:27
$11 Worth of Taco Bell: Should Max Kepler hit for more power than he has?

1:27
Eno Sarris: Does not hit the ball very hard or in great angles. But wears out the ball down the line and is smart. Good player, not great, shouldn’t hit for more power unless he adjusts.

1:28
5 Run Homer: Do you think that Ohtani might follow Darvish in FA?

1:28
Eno Sarris: Yu’s his own cat. Remember when he threw shade at Tanaka and his contract?

1:28
Sonny: If I sell Posey ‘a year early’ this offseason in dynasty any C I can target? Stick my finger in the light socket w D’Arnaud again?

1:29
Eno Sarris: Why not go veteran and get Chirinos or Zunino? Add Austin Barnes. And get something good for Posey. IT’s not a terrible plan.

1:30
5 Run Homer: Hey. The Decemberists are cool.

1:30
Eno Sarris: Been slacking on my music! Yeah I like them and they

1:31
Matt: Regarding injury prone. I understand the “health is a  skill” argument, and that keeping one’s body in better condition is more likely to not get injured. But other than a small impact, the “skill of health” is more akin to an innate attribute, no? More like height.

1:31
Eno Sarris: yeah but if you look at the numbers, and try to predict games played and DL stints for position players, you find it’s very difficult. Guys get hit, or slide awkwardly, get hurt, and it’s not always their ‘fault.’

1:32
O’s Nos : I came into a bounty of tasso ham and cannot use it all for various egg dishes.  What would be a good sandwich?

1:32
Eno Sarris: Ham, brie, your favorite jelly, sourdough.

1:32
O’s Nos : Buy or seel Whit Merrifield next year?

1:32
Eno Sarris: Buy.

1:33
Heraclitus: Does Trevor Hildenberger have top-ten reliever upside?

1:33
Eno Sarris: Funky release, tough on guys who haven’t seen him before, doubt he’s a closer type.

1:33
CamdenWarehouse: Not a fantasy player so I am really curious if Zunino is not well owned.  He’s in the top 5 in catcher wRC+.

1:33
Eno Sarris: There are a decent amount of people who have been burned too often by him and don’t see his name any more.

1:34
duckfarmer: how much eno could an eno eno eno if an eno could eno eno?

1:34
Eno Sarris: eno doesn’t always want to eno

1:34
Garden gnome Turner: Tell me Austin Barnes isn’t the best catcher in the NL

1:34
Eno Sarris: Austin Barnes isn’t the best catcher in the NL

1:34
Eno Sarris: (Not yet at least)

1:35
Sonny: Meloy’s early band Tarkio had a great record too. Some good Montana lo-fi

1:35
Eno Sarris: This? not bad

1:35
First Man on the Sun: RE: tasso ham – open face gumbo sandwich.  like a po boy but with ham and gravy (and celery!)

1:35
Matt: Not always their “fault” is I guess what I’m saying. We agree Eno! Eno! Eno! Eno!

1:36
Eno Sarris: Yah. I mean ‘fault’ here as genetics, but also as game/randomness.

1:36
Greg: Could say Liberty Media tell Ohtani “Sign with the Braves then we will sign you to be the spokesperson for Sirius XM, and pay you mightily to do it.” Is that breaking the International Signing rules?

1:37
Eno Sarris: Very interesting! You wouldn’t say that outright. You’d have them in different rooms. you’d say, Atlanta and America need you as a spokesman and the sponsors are lined up. They want to have dinner with you later without us.

1:37
Garden gnome Turner: Do you think SF should move the fences in? Was there last night and some balls just went forever and got caught… more about the air right?

1:38
Eno Sarris: Temperature, and then yeah they are really long to triples alley. I would. Everyone else with extreme parks has made their park more neutral for a reason — free agents, but also developing guys. Was talking to Ryder Jones about improving his launch angle and even in a short convo, the park factors came up.

1:38
The Dude: Moncada just went ham… you buying next year?

1:39
Eno Sarris: Only if cheap and in an ALO and I doubt he will be.

1:39
Bork: If corporations can sponsor players and it’s outside of International rules then the Jays could have Ohtani locked, money wise. Rogers is one of the richest owners in baseball.

1:40
Eno Sarris: This is worth exploring. There is one thing: budgets are often autonomous and separated. On some level, Sirius would have to get a return on their investment, because I doubt Liberty could put something in writing that says, yeah, we’re going to take the loss on what you pay Ohtani.

1:41
Bork: Pablo Sandoval is 2 for his last 54.

1:41
Eno Sarris: Okay guys! Gotta go write! can’t age like the Panda.

1:41
Eno Sarris: thanks for hanging out!

We hoped you liked reading Eno Sarris Baseball Chat — 9/14/17 by Eno Sarris!

Please support FanGraphs by becoming a member. We publish thousands of articles a year, host multiple podcasts, and have an ever growing database of baseball stats.

FanGraphs does not have a paywall. With your membership, we can continue to offer the content you've come to rely on and add to our unique baseball coverage.

Support FanGraphs




With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.

Comments are closed.