Eric Longenhagen & Kiley McDaniel Chat – 5/10/18

2:01

Eric A Longenhagen: Howdy from a Morristown, NJ Starbucks where I’ve stopped on the way to see Lenny Torres (which I’m growing worried is going to be rained out).

2:02

Eric A Longenhagen: Kiley will be joining momentarily, but I’m gonna get rolling now as I will probably hve to bounce sooner than Kiley to get to the game.

2:02

Paul: Wasn’t there a new mock promised at some point soon?!

2:03

Eric A Longenhagen: Early next week after I’ve seen who’s at the games I’m seeing this weekend and we make some more cals.

2:03

Kiley McDaniel: And I just got home to Orlando where I’m scrambling to run errands and settle in for some serious content putout (and also UCF/Oklahoma this weekend)

2:03

Dave: Any chance the Braves go with Kelenic at 8?

2:03

Kiley McDaniel: Definitely in the mix, we’re hearing lots of high school names there and he’s arguably the top prep bat

2:03

Philip: Early reports/stats on Paddack seem very positive (I realize minuscule sample), mid season top 100 guy?

2:03

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes.

2:04

Mark: Hi guys, thanks for the chat. Was curious about the Padres draft pick. Do you think they go high upside high school pitcher? I know you’re not suppose to draft for need but one of those college third baseman would be nice. Thanks!

2:04

Kiley McDaniel: We’re hearing their top pick is down to three high school pitchers and they’re tied to essentially every high school outfielder in the country for overpays at later picks if they cut at the first pick

2:04

OddBall Herrera: Is this just a hot streak from Beeks, or has he done something different that changes your 4th/5th starter report on him?

2:04

Eric A Longenhagen: Maybe he’s a true #4? I felt good about where we had him on the Sox list, which was pretty aggressive.

2:05

Dan: Is Peter Alonso this year’s Rhys Hoskins? A clunky 1B-type without much defensive value, which allows a monster hitter to go under the radar. How long can the Mets keep him down if he keeps this offensive production up?

2:07

Kiley McDaniel: We can’t rule that out, but I would hesitate to anoint a new Rhys Hoskins every year because if there’s one every year it’s not a thing with a name anymore. That said, Alonso has already outhit amateur projections and we have him somewhere in the area of 50 hit, 60-65 game power right now, so it’s looking like an everyday player, there’s just no margin for error with the offense since the speed/defense/position are marginal

2:07

Matt: Does Estuery Ruiz stick in the IF or is his future more likely in the corner outfield

2:07

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d ask “How do do we think it’d take this guy to get up to speed and play a decent big league OF” and leave him at 2B until he’s that far frlom the bigs. He’s not good at 2B but you have to try to make it work there.

2:07

sterling_archer: Orioles fan.  Looking forward to 2019 draft.  Any surefire 1-1 guys worth tanking for?

2:08

Kiley McDaniel: Still to early to know for sure, but doesn’t look like it. Prep side it’s Bobby Witt Jr, Hunter Barco, Rece Hinds and C.J. Abrams at the top

2:08

Brian: Do you think Jeisson Rosario will be in the top 100 this offseason?

2:08

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s possible. He’s definitely trending up because the control of the strike zone is so good.

2:09

ChatUser69: Any chance Jahmai Jones is regularly playing 2B in the majors? Or is more of a flexibility thing in his back pocket if needed?

2:09

Eric A Longenhagen: He was bad in the OF this spring and I think they’d like him to work out as a full time 2B

2:09

Justin Bieber : Does my cousin Shane have a chance to crack the big league rotation this year if Tomlin keeps struggling, or is he not quite ready for the next level?

2:09

Kiley McDaniel: He’s a plus plus command guy with above average stuff, so I’m not going to tell him he can’t do something at this point

2:09

OddBall Herrera: Should the Brewers just get their affiliate out of Colorado Springs, Burnes seems to be going through the same thing Hader did last year – dominant on the road, dumpster fire at home, and since those aren’t the conditions they’ll pitch in in the majors, I can’t think this is a positive for their development

2:09

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve never been to Colorado Springs and don’t know what the city is like but I’d get the hell out of there if another Triple-A destination became available.

2:10

NYTT: Austin Riley has exceeded expectations since he was promoted last year to AA. If he can be above average at 3rd and tap into his game power, what kind of player are we looking at? A Todd Frazier type?

2:10

Kiley McDaniel: Not sure there’s an easy comp, but it would be something like .260-.270 with 25-30 HR and fringy to average defense. Sorta like Frazier, I guess.

2:11

Paul: What have you heard about Trent Deveaux in extended spring training?

2:11

Eric A Longenhagen: Seen him a bunch and think he’s a stud. Plus run, good in CF, body still has room and the feel to hit is coming.

2:11

Tribe: What is the Indians’ draft philosophy (in your estimation), and have you heard and rumblings on who we have been heavily scouting recently?

2:12

Kiley McDaniel: They tend to lean to college performers and young high school types with a track record. Heard them on Mike Siani among other prep bats with their first pick

2:12

Will: Any names getting top 10 buzz via underslot?

2:13

Kiley McDaniel: Ryan Weathers at 7 to the Padres is the loudest one, the other ones we’ve heard are more backup plans that seem unlikely.

2:13

Todd: What’s the difference between what a ‘good’ scout can earn and what an ‘average’ scout can earn? Can teams really differentiate between average and good scouts, or is it mostly experience as a salary differentiator

2:13

Eric A Longenhagen: Teams are still struggling how to evaluate scouts. Was talking with area guys yesterday about how they’re evaluated and it was pretty dumb. All the quantifiable ways to do it are missing something, be they related to the player pool the scouts were responsible for (how many players in your area were drafted that you didn’t turn in?) or financial (debiting and crediting scouts based on estimated\actual bonuses)

2:13

Eric A Longenhagen: So generally I’d say good scouts move on to different roles, but that’s not always true either

2:14

Robby: Any possible chance that Turang makes it to campus?

2:14

Kiley McDaniel: Don’t think so, sounds like he’ll find a home in the 15-22 area. Maybe 10% chance?

2:14

Derek: Signs of life from Gilbert Lara or just a blip on the radar?

2:14

Eric A Longenhagen: This is better than what he’s been since fall of 2015, and he’s still just 20, so maybe.

2:15

Rafael Furcal: Since prep righties tend to slide on draft day, and that demographic also happens to be the strength of this class, which of these forces do you think overpowers the other this year?

2:15

Kiley McDaniel: We think they will tend to slide further than you guys would expect, but we’ll also probably rank them a little lower than others (that’s me guessing) given our lean in the most recent top 100, trying to fold in the attrition rates of each class of player

2:16

Josh: What is the best advice you would give to a college student wanting to get involved in MLB operations/analytics? Thanks!

2:16

Eric A Longenhagen: Learn Spanish and Dominican Spanish

2:16

Sparhawk: Why isn’t Connor Scott considered a top 10 prospect heading into the draft?

2:17

Kiley McDaniel: He’s been banged up a lot this year (concussion, hamstring, I believe one other thing) and didn’t play the full slate last summer, so lots of high level guys just haven’t seen him enough to be comfortable. He’s akin to Austin Beck in that way with big tools and limited track record. I prefer him to Beck since I think there’s a better chance to hit

2:17

Joe: What are your thoughts on Brewer pitcher Zack Brown?

2:17

Eric A Longenhagen: Reliever, but it’s three pitches (93-96, 6 breaking ball, 5 change) so he might be a really good one.

2:18

Hecubot: Does Jonathan India have enough helium to crack the Top Ten?

2:18

Largest Adult Son: where do you grade Luicus Fox’s speed?  is it still plus-plus?  His hands haven’t developed that much at short, could he be in the outfield soon?

2:18

Eric A Longenhagen: 70, and yeah we speculated on the Rays list that he might be a better fit in CF, where he could be an elit7e defender because of his speed.

2:18

Kiley McDaniel: India could go 9 or 10 and is an underslot name at 6 to the Mets, but he’s seen as more of a 12-18 sort of talent from the people we’ve talked to and that’s also closer to where we rank him

2:19

Mike: Is Mize the consensus #1 because he’s one of those “every few years” talents that would go #1 in most drafts? Or is it because the talent after him just isn’t up to par compared to past drafts?

2:19

Kiley McDaniel: I’ll go into more detail when I write him up, but I think I’m lower on him than most, still think he’s the top talent

2:19

Marlins Man: How concerned should I be about Brinson’s offensive ability?

2:19

Eric A Longenhagen: I wouldn’t be. He’s had to make adjustments throughout his career and he always has. People were fretting about Judge after his first taste, too. MLB is tough. Give him two or three years before you give up.

2:20

Jay: One question: Is Tatis over-hyped?

2:20

Kiley McDaniel: whoa easy there

2:20

Dave: Kiley, after seeing Swaggerty in person, how do you see his draft stock?  His batting average is now below .300 in a small conference.  Is he in danger of falling past the A’s pick at #9?

2:21

Kiley McDaniel: Don’t think he gets to the A’s, but I have had two bad looks this spring after a good look over the summer. It’s 60 raw, 65 speed and a 60 arm and he hit last summer, there’s a new power focused swing this spring, so it’s more an issues of dialing it in approach wise than can he hit. Those kinds of tools in college dont slide far

2:21

Dr. Torch: Any eyes/news on James Kaprielian?

2:21

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah saw him in a sim gam last week. Mostly 92-93, secondary stuff was above average. Looked fine given the context of the look, so did Jefferies.

2:22

Louis : Is Dennis Santana a major league starter?

2:22

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes

2:22

Dwight Schroot: Nathaniel Lowe, Josh Lowe’s older brother, is destroying everything.  How legitimate is he?  I’ve heard him called the Rays best hitter behind Bauers, prospect wise.

2:22

Kiley McDaniel: Plus power from the left side, 1B only, decent feel to hit and hitting right now. More extra guy/platoon type unless he really starts mashing for another year

2:23

Gil: Does Losiago (sp, Yankees) have front of rotation potential

2:23

Eric A Longenhagen: No, probably a reliever. Saw him yesterday. He was 94-97 with a plus slider and an average power changeup in the 87-8 range that was effective under the hands of righties. I’m not sure there’s a clear way of dealing with lefties and the deivery is wonky, but he’s a big leaguer of some kind.

2:23

MJ: I know a callup likely isn’t imminent for Vlad, but IF the Jays called him up today, what kind of numbers could he reasonably be expected to produce at the MLB level? Could he out produce Kendrys if they Jays stuck him there 4-5 days a week (with him playing 3B the other days to give Donaldson some DH time)?

2:24

Kiley McDaniel: We’ve discussed Vlad Jr some recently and I just talked to a scout who saw him, so I think his scouting numbers will jump a bit in the next prospect list update. More to the playability being even better than we expected out of the chute at AA than him being a different player or skillset since we obviously knew about that. He may perform around them offensively, it’s getting to the point where I don’t want to say he can’t do something

2:25

Bored Employee: Would you please share some thoughts about Cistulli favorites David Fletcher and Lamonte Wade? Have either added strength or changed their swings to generate more power?

2:25

Kiley McDaniel: Saw Lamonte Wade a few weeks ago and sure didn’t look like it

2:25

Jon: Could you go a little more in depth on the Derek Hill ranking? It’s been 4 years and he’s been injured or unproductive every year

2:25

Eric A Longenhagen: The exit velos were really strong last year ad we thought he was growing into power to pair with the glove. He was a boom or bust 45 FV, essentially. We rank plenty of guys like that, but because it’s not a strong system up top and there’s a #4 next to his name, people focus on that instead of the FV, whih is the important part.

2:25

Dave: Kiley, Nick Schnell has been on a HR tear as of late.  How high can his draft stock go?

2:26

Kiley McDaniel: Been talking to many guys about him this week as he’s got some helium. Seems like his market is 25-40, but some teams don’t buy the bat and think he’s more 50-65 for them. Chance to play CF, plus power, but bars out (loads really deep) and is late even on just okay HS pitching, so oppo homers in HS are seen not as all field approach but as revealing a weakness to some scouts. Big upside tho

2:27

Bored Employee: Eric, Kiley mentioned that you’d seen Kristian Robinson in person. Has he shown any skill development/aptitude for making adjustments, or does he remain “sushi-raw”?

2:27

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s 17 so he’s raw but he’s much better than he was in limited looks last fall and way more advanced than all the Bahamians have been before he and Deveaux arrived.

2:27

Dave: It seems like Shane McClanahan has rebounded his last two starts after a little rough patch.  Has his stock rebounded more towards the top 5, or has Singer now moved about him?

2:27

Kiley McDaniel: We prefer McClanahan and he’s been nails the last few weeks–I should see him in the conference tournament in a few weeks–I think he goes 9-12

2:28

Satya: How does Casey Mize today compare to Kyle Wright a year ago?

2:29

Kiley McDaniel: Mize has a hair more stuff but the frame, delivery, style of pitching and all that isn’t as good. I prefer Wright, but that’s more of a 50/50 split in the scouting community, I would guess

2:29

Andrew: Hey Eric can you tell me a little more about Jose Soriano? I saw your tweet comparing him to first round prep arms and wanted to know a little more.

2:29

Eric A Longenhagen: Had a strong writeup on the Angels list. I’ve been writing about him for 2+ years now and his velo is always trending up, the breaking ball has more power than it did last summer. When things break right (phys prj, breaking ball, good delivery) this is what it looks like.

2:29

Dave: Is it fair to say that the two highest-rated tools among positions players in this draft are Nolan Gorman’s power and Jordyn Adams’ speed?

2:29

Kiley McDaniel: Gorman has 70 raw, Adams has 80 speed. Xavier Edwards 80 speed would be #2 and Triston Casas’ power (70 or 80) would probably be 3rd

2:29

Eric A Longenhagen: Larnach’s power is u p with Gorman

2:30

Tooy: Reggie Lawson breaking out or still looking like a reliever?

2:30

Eric A Longenhagen: Sounds like he found a changeup

2:30

Slick Rick Hahn: I really want Alek Thomas in my organization since I already have my dad, who could I go underslot with at 4 in order to push him to the 2nd round? Think it’s possible?

2:30

Kiley McDaniel: He’s not in play until about 25, so much more likely to be a 2nd round pick anyway and the TCU commitment is enough that he could slide to an overpay team

2:31

Ringo: Domingo German… what were your thoughts on this kid before his most impressive outing of late?

2:31

Eric A Longenhagen: They’re on the Yankees list. Probable reliever, long term.

2:32

Kiley McDaniel: really loud stuff tho, some think the curve is a 70

2:32

North Side Nihilists: What’s the word on Reid-Foley this year? SSS or mechanical adjustments?

2:32

doyershalos: Who’s more risky between Adell and Marsh? Who are their comps?

2:32

Kiley McDaniel: Guy I talked to said 60 FB/CB and 40 command

2:32

Eric A Longenhagen: Marsh is less risky because he has the better bat.

2:33

GRUMPY TURNER: Any early reports on Freddy Tarnok? Numbers looking pretty good…

2:33

Kiley McDaniel: Heard he’s been throwing well, up to 97, which is back to the amateur stuff he got drafted off of

2:35

Alec Asher Wojciechowski: Are you concerned about JB Bukauskas?  He was assigned conservatively, hasn’t exactly dominated, and wound up on the DL now.

2:35

Kiley McDaniel: It’s seemed like a higher risk reliever type for the last year or so, or maybe that bridge once or twice thru the order type power arm with lots of breaking balls and just ok command

2:36

Dwight Schroot: More impressed with Brendan McKay the pitcher or hitter?  His K:BB numbers are insane on both sides of the ball.

2:37

Eric A Longenhagen: Was told we’re light on the bat, which seems crazy given where we ranked him, but sounds like actually working on hitting is making a difference

2:37

Your boy: What’s the craziest report you’ve gotten about a player in the last few weeks?

2:37

Kiley McDaniel: Got a glowing report on Adam Kloffenstein then was told his velo was down since then, so we need to follow up and see how he finishes

2:38

Jason: Have you heard any talk about Singer to the Reds at No. 5?  If so, do you see similarities to the Mike Leake pick (No. 8) in terms of a short developmental period?  Even if he’s a 3/4, they need innings sooner than later. Thanks again for doing these chats.

2:38

Kiley McDaniel: TONS of buzz on that one. I think that’s who they take. Dick Williams and the scouting director were at Mize/Singer

2:38

New Delhi: Juan Soto.. just Juan Soto..

2:38

Eric A Longenhagen: Saw him when I got off the plane Tuesday night, and yeah the bat speed and ability to rotate violently while still maintaining some semblance of control is great.

2:39

Guest: Have your opinions changed on Triston Mckenzie this year? seems to have dropped in yours and other analysts rankings.  Thanks for everything you do!

2:39

Eric A Longenhagen: No idea, he hasn’t thrown.

2:39

Adam: Who’s got a louder overall toolset between Jordyn Adams and Klyer Murray?

2:39

Kiley McDaniel: Will see Kyler tomorrow, so I’ll have a better answer then, but I’ll lean Adams

2:40

LosDoyers: What is your favorite Baseball-related Conspiracy theory?
What do you actually believe in and what conspiracy do you want it to be true?

Different sport but I really really want “Paul Pierce pooped his pants during G1 of 2008 NBA finals so he staged the wheelchair incident” to be true

2:40

Eric A Longenhagen: I believe the ‘Teams hide players in the Dominican until after the trade deadline, then send them to AZ/FL’ theory and think it’ll be more common as more teams scout Extended

2:41

Matt: Has Taylor Widener done something this year to increase his K% again or is this just normal progression as he gets promoted? What’ll it take from him this year to get to a FV 45?

2:41

Eric A Longenhagen: We have to buy that he’s a starter or that he could be a dominant reliever to make him a 45 FV or better

2:41

Shockers Fan: Hey guys – big fan of what you guys do. Hearing any rumblings on what teams have been linked to Greyson Jenista? And what round? Thank you!

2:41

Kiley McDaniel: Hearing he’s in the 20’s, maybe early 30’s

2:42

Kiley McDaniel: Maybe 18-19. So like 18-32? He’s a tough one to peg

2:42

North Side Nihilists: Is Tyler Beede’s command the only thing holding him back? He had some solid offerings and velo in his cup of coffee.

2:42

Eric A Longenhagen: Agree

2:42

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s been that way since college

2:42

Andrew: What’s the word on prep arm Owen White? How does he profile and where do you think he’ll slot in the draft?

2:42

Kiley McDaniel: Possibly late 2nd, more 3rd-4th fit, chance for a couple 55’s and a starter profile, some projection

2:43

Justin: If you’re the White Sox and at your pick the top player remaining is Joey Bart how do you approach that, especially given that they seem to have a couple catching options? I know Collins hasn’t hit much and might not be able to catch, but generally speaking I’m interested as to how orgs view this problem, especially when most take the best player available.

2:44

Kiley McDaniel: Collins cannot catch, especially everyday and you don’t take need into account in the top 5, just take the best player. The results show that the value of each player falls of a lot at each pick at the top so why willingly move down that curve when you can trade anyone if you end up with a glut?

2:44

Jake Junis Priest: Any change in outlook for Lourdes Gurriel? Has looked mostly like the 40 you put on him, but has had flashes too…

2:44

Eric A Longenhagen: Yup, that sounds about right…

2:44

Matt: Kiley, what do you think of Auburn’s young position players in terms of future draft projections (2019/2020)

2:45

Kiley McDaniel: SS Will Holland for 2019 is a 65-70 runner than can play 2B or maybe SS and has a little pop. The good ones are Steven Williams C/RF for 2020 and 2B/LF Edouard Julien who has easy plus raw and taps into it but doesn’t really seem comfortable at 2B yet

2:45

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m all about Steven Williams. Supertwitchy, natural uppercut.

2:46

Deke: Jazz Chisholm is currently projected as a 45 FV, in part due to his projected hit tool maxing out at 40. Is this more of a contact-driven issue, bat control, hand strength, approach? Moreover, is (whatever the issue is) fixable, or more of a fatal flaw? Much thanks, gents!

2:46

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s a max-effort swing guy, that’s where it comes from. I wouldnt change it if it’s working like this

2:46

Christian: If you could put Casey Mize into your top 100 now, whereabouts would he rank?

2:46

Kiley McDaniel: A question that will be answered in a very comprehensive way, but in like a week or two

2:47

Nick: Could the Giants take Madrigal at #2? I think I remember you saying that was unlikely, but I just wanted to see if anything has changed.

2:47

Kiley McDaniel: Not happening

2:47

Jack: If you were a starting pitching draft prospect and could choose one team that could never draft you, what team would you want staying the hell away from your golden arm?

2:47

The Ghost of Wade Boggs: So what would you gents say the odds are at this point that Mize goes 1-1?

2:47

Eric A Longenhagen: BAL

2:48

Kiley McDaniel: on Mize, probably 90%

2:48

Kiley McDaniel: wish there were draft props we could bet on

2:48

George: Suprised to see the Blue Jays linked to prep players?

2:48

Kiley McDaniel: Nope, I’m hearing that’s almost all they’ve targeted with their first pick

2:48

ReggieStevens: Have either of you heard anything about how Paddack’s stuff has looked coming back from TJS?

2:48

Eric A Longenhagen: Was 92-94 t95 with a 70 change and 45 breaking ball like 10 days ago in Surprise

2:49

Tim: Tony Santillan is a hot name among Reds fans these days. Whats the upside on that arm? Mid-rotation ceiling with a back-end of bullpen floor?

2:49

Eric A Longenhagen: yep

2:49

ATLLL: Joey Bart to ATL?

2:49

Kiley McDaniel: He’s gonna go in the top 5-6 and I think ATL would take most of the guys that would go in that range. But, no,

2:49

Kiley McDaniel: Since ATL picks 8th

2:50

Fugazi: I’m interested in either of your guys opinion on Jasrado Chisholm? I’ve seen him in Kane County and came away thinking there’s something there.

2:50

Eric A Longenhagen: Note the date. I like him so much more than actual Jazz. He’s a cocky, power hitting middle infielder: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/prospect-reports-arizona-diamondbacks/

2:50

Mike: Do scouts ever specialize among positions? Like would it make sense to identify people at the cross checker level who specialize in pitchers, bats, defense/catchers?

2:51

Kiley McDaniel: Sort of, there are some scouts that are pitcher/hitter crosscheckers and every team has hitting/pitching/catching gurus that aren’t scouts per se but hold lots of weight over those evals

2:51

Albies: Where did my power come from???

2:52

Kiley McDaniel:

2:52

Wally: Nats fan but I promise not to ask about Juan Soto.  They have some older position player guys in the lower minors doing well: Noll and Davidson (Cistulli’s guy), for example.   What kinds of things would you look for to see if an older position player prospect can be a late bloomer with a chance at the majors, or is it so rare that its not worth trying to figure it out?

2:52

Eric A Longenhagen: I look for reasons they’re behind (injury, something circumstantial) and something skill-based rather than tool-based that might not have been identified easily early on as a pro or as an amateur.

2:52

Bun B: yay NJ

2:52

Eric A Longenhagen: yay

2:53

Adam: Tirso Ornelas and Jeisson Rosario are two of my favorite prospects in the Padres system and reports so far this season seem to be very positive. Have they begun to separate themselves from the other J2 position players in that Padres signing class?

2:53

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d still have Arias and Morejon with them, but yeah. Better than Almanzar, Lopez, Barley, etc.

2:53

Juan: Is there a legitimate chance that the Cubs go with a high-upside prep guy in the 1st round to stimulate their system?

2:53

Eric A Longenhagen: I doubt it.

2:53

Former President Barack Obama: Question for kiley: do you want to go to Disney with me this weekend? Disney World is my son’s favorite. I like to show dominance by not inviting him.

2:54

Kiley McDaniel: Wait Obama doesn’t have a son. I’m starting to think this isn’t really him asking the question

2:54

Declan: Is there a “draft crush” that you have had in past drafts that have lived up to/exceeded expectations who you are proud of?

2:55

Kiley McDaniel: Aaron Nola (particularly ranking him over Kolek) is one that comes to mind

2:55

Kiley McDaniel: I was also high on Trea Turner since his freshman year and stayed high on him when others said he was a late first rounder during an up and down spring

2:55

Dave: Eric, what the latest on Nolan Gorman’s draft stock, and do you have any sense of the A’s interest in him at #9, if many of  the college hitters go early as expected?

2:56

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve seen a bunch of A’s guys at Gorman lately, including Kubota, and I think they’re on him.

2:56

Kevin: If you had to guess the White Sox top 3 players: Madrigal Bohm Swaggerty, in that order?  Is Brady Singer in consideration do you think?

2:56

Kiley McDaniel: They’re on all 4, but I think Bohm is the lowest of those 4

2:56

Snooker: At the end of the Tigers list you mentioned J.T. Ginn as a possibility in the 2nd round. Is that based on actual heat or team tendencies? Any other names for that spot?

2:57

Kiley McDaniel: Tendencies and they’ve also scouted him a lot and other scouts are telling us that’s what they’re hearing

2:57

Eddie Dingle: what’s the most annoying misconception people tend to have about prospects/player development?

2:58

Kiley McDaniel: That velo is the most important thing, or performing at a low level (like JC numbers) is enough on it’s own to get drafted

2:58

Captain Jack Sparrow: Hey guys, saw your Dodgers rankings yesterday, and was wondering if Robinson Ortiz’s upside is really that high? Haven’t seen him ranked that highly elsewhere. Once again, thanks for all the work you guys do

2:58

Eric A Longenhagen: When I’ve seen him he’s 90-94 with two 55 secondaries and command. He’s 18. That guy goes in the second round. We have 40 FVs on guys like that. He belongs on the list, I was just lucky enough to see him in person last fall, otherwise its tough to know he even exists other than looking at DSL stats.

2:59

Roger: Best prospect that doesn’t really look the part?

2:59

Eric A Longenhagen: Dawel Lugo

2:59

SecretMenu: Have you and Eric ever considered the possibility of “pitching” McDonalds on a “McLongenhagen”? You know, like a hotdog.

2:59

Kiley McDaniel: It would obviously be called a McDongenhagen

3:00

Eric A Longenhagen: ABC rejected our budd cop pilot

3:00

Eric A Longenhagen: Kiley couldnt grow the neccessary stache

3:00

Kiley McDaniel: We’re def standing back to back with guns drawn in the key art tho

3:00

LeBron is the GOAT: When you guys are doing pitcher grades, particularly overall FV, do you factor in the increased uncertainty of just being a pitching prospect? Put another way, is a pitcher with 55 FV given that rating assuming full health, or does it incorporate the inherent additional risks of pitching?

3:00

Kiley McDaniel: I’m making a funny face and Eric is frustrated with my antics

3:00

Eric A Longenhagen: It includes the risk

3:01

Eric A Longenhagen: And yeah, we round down pretty hard on pitchers. Yadi taught me

3:01

Babe Lincoln: How can Alonso work on his speed/defense/position other than just doing generic drills and stuff?

3:02

Kiley McDaniel: You can’t really. I mean he was really fringy at 3B as an amateur. You can’t really make a 20-something husky 1B into something other than that and losing lots of weight probably affects the power, which is why you know who he is

3:02

Dwight Schroot: Is Tim Tebow the most famous active professional baseball player?  Sad.

3:02

Eric A Longenhagen: You still have that Van Halen poster in your room?

3:03

Jack: Heard Vlad had a 117 exit velo the other day in a game. That’s insane for an MLB player – how much more insane is it for a 19 year old? Is there a precedent you can think of?

3:03

Kiley McDaniel: Not sure if that’s true but I would buy it. Trevor Larnach at Oregon State hit a ball 114 or 115 this year. Acuna was hitting them that hard a couple years ago. That’s kinda the area (114-116) where the super loud sound happens, generally speaking

3:04

The Candy Man Can: Not a prospect anymore, but could Jeimer Candelario have discovered above average/plus power? Not a small dude and already 20 XBH this year

3:04

Eric A Longenhagen: The baseball is so kind to guys who square it up in the big leagues

3:04

Colin: Thoughts on Yoan Lopez? Intriguing prospect again? Can he help in 2018? 2019?

3:04

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, as a reliever

3:04

Bored Employee: Can you name a couple interesting prospects from non-traditional baseball countries?

3:05

Kiley McDaniel: Lots of dudes from the Bahamas bubbling up at the same time right now. Kristian Robinson, Trent Deveaux, Lucius Fox and I’m forgetting another one

3:05

Eric A Longenhagen: Florial is from Haiti, Diomar Lopez is from Nicaragua, Pardinho isfrom Brazil

3:05

Kiley McDaniel: Gohara from Brazil

3:05

Kiley McDaniel: Loaisiga is from Panama or Nicarague

3:06

Kiley McDaniel: it’s Nicaragua

3:06

john cale: what are people saying about luken baker?

3:07

Kiley McDaniel: 70 power, okay contact skills, 1B only, been hurt a lot, I guess 3rd round? Not really sure

3:07

Bob: What round do you foresee for Jeremiah Jackson?

3:07

Kiley McDaniel: 25-50 area, sounds like slightly toolsier Jonathan India

3:07

Travis: Can you name a fast riser who could sneak into the top 10 and surprise?

3:07

Eric A Longenhagen: Cole Winn

3:07

Mountie Votto: Shouldn’t be worried about Hunter Greene yet, right? He’s sporting like a .700 BABIP against, striking out a ton, and hitting 100+

3:07

Eric A Longenhagen: Agreed

3:07

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Anyone the Rays are linked to for the draft?

3:08

Kiley McDaniel: Cole Wilcox, Kumar Rocker, Parker Meadows, Jordyn Adams

3:08

Giants Fan: Have either of you seen Logan Webb and/orMac Marshall?

3:08

Eric A Longenhagen: Marshall was 86-90 last fall but soundsbetter this year. Webb was 92-95 for me this spring with 50/55 secondaries and a reliever’s command/delivery

3:09

Nathan: How high do you think Jake Wong gets taken? Top 5 rounds? Top 3?

3:09

Eric A Longenhagen: Could see rd 4 or 5 if you think he can start

3:10

Little Rascals: Long-term answer for the Rays at 2B – Brujan, Solak, or Lowe?

3:10

Eric A Longenhagen: I love Brujan

3:10

Gio: You mentioned the Jays have been looking heavily into prep players. Any names in particular?

3:10

Kiley McDaniel: Connor Scott, Kumar Rocker, Nick Schnell in the 2nd

3:10

JimR: Any chance we’ll be seeing Roman Quinn anytime soon?

3:10

Eric A Longenhagen: I just don’t know where they put him.

3:10

George: Surprise names that could fall out of the top 10?

3:11

Eric A Longenhagen: libby, but not far

3:11

Meow: I appreciate that you guys do a chat together, but what made that happen? All the other chat people work alone.

3:11

Caleb Ferguson: Why am I not a top 100 prospec? .33 era at AA as a 21 year old after being the california league player of the year last year.  I know “don’t scout the stat line” but at some point you have to pay attention to performance especially when people says he has a 55 curve, 50 fastball, developing 45 change

3:11

Kiley McDaniel: I couldn’t chat at my normal time due to travel THIS IS WHAT YOU GET

3:11

Eric A Longenhagen: Who said Ferguson had that pitch mix (hint: it was me)

3:12

Eric A Longenhagen: And that’s a pretty fringey mix

3:12

Eric A Longenhagen: But yeah, he’s pitching his ass off

3:12

PTown: How would you rank Jonathan India, Nick Madrigal, Keston Hiura, and Nick Senzel as prospects coming out?

3:12

Kiley McDaniel: Senzel/Madrigal, Hiura, India

3:13

WSox Fan: How much do either of you know about Bernardo Flores and when is a realistic time I can expect him in the bigs?

3:13

Eric A Longenhagen: He was jerked around at USC, stuff was way up after the draft then down again last year. When he’s clicking he’s a potential #4

3:14

Drew: What single attribute for a pitcher is more important than velo?

3:14

Kiley McDaniel: following me on twitter

3:15

Pei: Regarding the MLB operations/analytics question, why Spanish over coding/data analytics? Or is coding also important just not as much so

3:15

Eric A Longenhagen: We underrated communication skills in this business. My wife’s middle school kids are learning how to code, that’s not going to be a skill that separates you in 5 years.

3:15

Bored Employee: Who is the professional athlete froma different sport you’d most like to see as a baseball player? Best athlete that you don’t think could translate to baseball?

3:16

Kiley McDaniel: I bet Russell Westbrook would be good at any sport he tried

3:16

Eric A Longenhagen: Russell Westbrook

3:16

Eric A Longenhagen: KILEY

3:16

Kiley McDaniel: LOL

3:16

Billy Beane: Question: Do you think you would be quicker to become a scout in another sport of which you have very little knowledge than the average fan of that sport? Like if you had to be a rugby scout for your career would you be better at it more quickly than an average rugby fan who knows a decent amount about the sport but has no scouting training?

3:16

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, because I’m conceited.

3:16

Eric A Longenhagen: ( I don’t actually know)

3:16

Eric A Longenhagen: but it’s a fun question

3:17

Kiley McDaniel: I think I could scout football reasonably quickly. Don’t think that’s true of other sports

3:17

Kiley McDaniel: Also I think we’re almost in range

3:17

Captain Jack Sparrow: Arghhhhghhhhhhhhghhhhhhhh

3:17

Guest: Lmmmmmmmmmmm

3:18

DraftNut: Who are either of your guys’ biggest sleepers for this year’s draft?

3:18

Eric A Longenhagen: Nick Sandlin

3:19

Eric A Longenhagen: I also like Jayce Easley a lot but think he’s headed to school. Been watching him since he was a freshman and think he’s a terrific little player.

3:19

Kiley McDaniel: he’s a good one. Maybe Richie Palacios. Liked my look at him last year and some guys still like him this year

3:20

Matt Damon: MATT DAMON.

3:20

Kiley McDaniel: I think it may be time

3:20

Eric A Longenhagen: Indeed, I need to get back on the road

3:21

Kiley McDaniel: Thats us signing off. Look for tons of sweet sweet content coming from us very soon

3:22

Eric A Longenhagen: We’re back on normal chat schedule next week (at least I am) so see you next Thursday, folks. Thanks for coming and for your continued readership.

3:22

Kiley McDaniel: Same!

We hoped you liked reading Eric Longenhagen & Kiley McDaniel Chat – 5/10/18 by Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel!

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feslenraster
Member
feslenraster

oh my god…never thought I’d see my real life name inside a Fangraphs chat haha :). It’s not a very common name either…woo!