Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 10/10

12:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning! Quick chat today as I want to get to Brewers intrasquad before Fall League gets underway.

12:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Cistulli and I podded: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fangraphs-audio-the-evolving-criteria-…

12:02
Eric A Longenhagen: OKay, let’s do this

12:03
hscer: what’s up with barreto

12:03
Eric A Longenhagen: Just a 21-year old struggling with his initial taste of the toughest baseball league on the planet. I don’t think he’s a SS but think he’ll hit enough to play wherever he ends up, which will still likely be an up-the-middle position.

12:04
Los doyers: Any doyer kids you see in Az on the brink of making an impact soon? Or all youngins

12:04
Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t see anyone making a jump like Buehler did, if that’s what you’re asking. He’s still throwing down here, by the way, just in case…

12:04
Tommy N.: Did you attend the Padres prospect exhibition game at Petco vs the Rangers? If so, any thoughts on what you saw.

12:05
Eric A Longenhagen: Nope, saw them while they were here for instructs, saw everyone but Nix.

12:06
Eric A Longenhagen: It’s a great system, deep and athletic, with lots of guys who have a chance to play some kind of big league role as well as the potential stars you know about. Agustin Ruiz had a great instructs.

12:06
Luke: Is there a way to watch video of AFL games?

12:06
Eric A Longenhagen: MLB Network shows a couple games, mostly toward the end of the schedule.

12:06
BK: How likely is it that Danny Jansen becomes an average big league starting C?

12:07
Eric A Longenhagen: I’m still kind of perplexed by what he did this year.

12:07
Eric A Longenhagen: So I’m hesitating.

12:07
GPT: Hey, have you gotten a chance to see Gregory Santos or Alexander Canario in Giants camp yet? Thoughts?

12:08
Eric A Longenhagen: Santos yes. 92-95 with chance for a plus slider, I’m 50/50 on whether he can start. He’s a bigger guy but repeats okay, gets plane on the fastball. Canario, no. Of the two days I’ve seen SF (they play games with KC later than anyone else does which is why I’m saving them for last) so far was a tune-up day for Fall Leaguers so my looks at their youngest have been limited.

12:08
Pog: How is Tatis’ defense at short? Is it good or more good enough?

12:09
Eric A Longenhagen: I think he’ll play there for a while and then grow out of it and move to third. He’s acrobatic and capable if somewhat inconsistent. He’ll be better than Bogaerts is right now, for instance.

12:10
Peter: Do you think Senzel has the profile to hit the ground running when he makes his MLB debut?

12:11
Eric A Longenhagen: I’d think so but Judge struggled initially, so did Trout. Initial success is a hard thing to predict because MLB is so hard and you’re literally confining your sample to a player’s first exposure to it.

12:11
Dan: Curious to know how Eddy Martinez (Cubs OF) may have improved his stock as the year progressed. Still likely 45 hit/45 game power? Thanks!

12:11
Eric A Longenhagen: I’d say he did not

12:11
Roman: Is it in Mahle’s best interest to start 2018 in AAA or with the Reds?

12:12
Eric A Longenhagen: It’s in Mahle’s best interest to start with CIN because of the extra $

12:12
MadduxGlavineSmoltz: do you feel the braves went about rebuilding the right way?   With how “set up” the Astros, Yankees, Cubs, etc..  are heading into 2018 and beyond with the way they loaded up on position players, Im very concerned the Braves went the wrong direction while loading up on pitching prospects.  Would like to hear your thoughts Eric

12:13
Eric A Longenhagen: They’ve done fine, cast a wide net with arms and it isn’t like they don’t have bats. Acuna is almost there, Swanson and Albies already are. They have depth in the lower levels that will yield more in the next few years.

12:13
Da Bum: Jhailyn Ortiz was a top international signing who destroyed A ball as an 18 year old but doesn’t get the hype of someone like Leody. Why is that? Should he be getting more attention? Will he make your top 100?

12:14
Eric A Longenhagen: He’s likely 1B-only while Leody is a potential plus defensive CF

12:14
Joe: Just looking at raw upside, who has the highest SP ceiling between Gore, Greene, and Keller? Who has the highest chance of reaching it?

12:14
Eric A Longenhagen: Greene throws hardest and is the best athlete so I’ll say him.

12:14
Jon: Is Thairo Estrada considered more than a fringe prospect?  Or will the bat still hold him back?

12:15
Eric A Longenhagen: Utility guy for me, which is still a terrific outcome

12:15
Jerry: Did Cole Tucker’s injuries this year weaken your thoughts on his ultimate offensive upside?

12:15
Eric A Longenhagen: No, he can recover from the injury

12:16
Adam: The Padres may very well roll out what is essentially a high school team in Tri Cities next year with a bunch of kids who would be HS seniors if they were born in the States. How common is this?

12:16
Eric A Longenhagen: Rare but they had multiple 17-year olds playing there this year so it won’t be anything totally new

12:16
martin: rafael devers never really graded out as a fast player… but dang, he was circling around the bases like cheetah yesterday. thoughts?

12:16
Eric A Longenhagen: He was?

12:17
Jake: Anybody interesting that you haven’t seen before in Giants instrux?

12:19
Eric A Longenhagen: Not that I haven’t already seen, though they have a big group here and I haven’t seen everyone yet. Santos was good, Fabian has been good. I got a good Garrett WIlliams report and Joe Marciano has an above average breaking ball right now, he just sits 90-91. Commands it, though.

12:19
Matt: With Fowler likely manning CF for the A’s next season, it appears Jorge Mateo is likely their future SS. How much do you trust him at that position?

12:20
Eric A Longenhagen: Like a 40% he stays there for me but I wouldn’t evaluate Semien as a SS and yet…

12:20
Jeff: Rosario & Smith: Growing pains or red flags?

12:20
Eric A Longenhagen: The former.

12:20
Ryan: Both Alzolay and Sixto Sanchez are average height SP with big stuff and some helium going into this winter.  Similar projections?

12:20
Eric A Longenhagen: Sixto is the better athlete and strike thrower

12:21
Joe: Did Jomar Reyes impress you this year? Any chance he makes it to AA next season?

12:21
Eric A Longenhagen: It was nice to finally see him have a successful year when he played but he also missed a few months with injury.

12:22
LegallyEagle: Are any of the Dodgers’ catching prospects going to be MLB-ready soon? Should the Dodgers consider trading any of those catching prospects, or perhaps trading one of their MLB-level ones?

12:23
Eric A Longenhagen: I think one of Will Smith, Connor Wong or Keibert Ruiz will be ready by 2019 and one will be traded. Austin Barnes probably sticks around.

12:23
Cameron: Will Jo Adell be playing in AFL? What are you hearing from scouts about him?

12:24
Eric A Longenhagen: No, not advanced enough for that. He’s back playing the field and throwing poorly as he did this spring. I saw him last week. Had a 70 on his outfield arm last summer, it’s a 30 now. But scouts love the bat and he’s running well enough to be hopeful he stays in CF.

12:25
John: Who’s your favorite prospect in instructs this year?

12:25
Eric A Longenhagen: Cristopher Navarro

12:27
Pablo: Should White Sox fans be concerned with Eloy Jimenz’s defense? Is Luis Robert the front runner for CF in the future?

12:28
Eric A Longenhagen: Maybe. He’s a LF-only guy for me anyway but has had some lower body injuries that could limit his mobility if they persist. All the value is in the bat there. Robert is probably the front runner for CF of the future, yes.

12:28
Sammy: Is Luis Guillorme possibly an underrated prospect? Does he get picked in the rule V if not put on 40 this offseason?

12:29
Eric A Longenhagen: I think his glove could help a team right now, yeah.

12:30
Pablo: Anyone in particular you’re interested in seeing in the Brewers’ intrasquad game?

12:30
Eric A Longenhagen: Larry Ernesto, Antonio Rivero, Jean Carmona, Carlos Rodriguez

12:30
AJ: Did you see any change in Jordan Hicks approach/stuff that would explain his jump in performance at the end of the season – including the promotion to A+? Or is it SSS?

12:31
Eric A Longenhagen: Just seemed like a kid harnessing monster stuff. He was sitting upper-90s in the spring.

12:31
Tim: Is Stephen Gonsalves ready to join the Twins rotation? It’s pretty darn thin…

12:31
Eric A Longenhagen: I think so

12:31
greg: Why did the Reds choose to send who they did to the AFL?  Seems kind of “meh” relative to their system.

12:32
Eric A Longenhagen: You reward guys for good years or sometimes get positional assignments you can’t fill with a big name prospect.

12:33
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Let’s pretend that the Arizona League decided to move for monetary reasons. They all played indoor baseball (however that would work) in Downtown Manhattan (again, totally hypothetical). How much of your ability to cover these athletes is based on the relative cost-of-living and traffic ease of Arizona?

12:33
Eric A Longenhagen: It’s huge. I’ll be at three games today.

12:33
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: When is the last time you thought about Scott Elarton?

12:34
Eric A Longenhagen: Last week when the early 2000s Astros came up as a topic of discussion on a back field.

12:34
Eric A Longenhagen: And then Rickey Henderson walked by complaining about the sun

12:34
GPT: A year later, any real change in your opinion of Sandro Fabian? His last six weeks in SAL, where teenagers usually fall apart, was very encouraging.

12:36
Eric A Longenhagen: More info now, right? We have a better idea of how aggressive he is now, which is “really, really, probably too aggressive” and so I think he has some work to do in that area, but I haven’t given up on him or anything. He’s really talented, very gifted bat-to-ball skills.

12:36
Dunt: Should I be excited about any of these White Sox fall league guys? I think Zavala is the only one that actually contributes at the major league level someday.

12:37
Eric A Longenhagen: Polo is a tough eval because he does some good things but is small. Mendick had a big year on paper so he’s a priority to see if I missed anything there last year.

12:37
Dooduh: who dat?

12:37
Eric A Longenhagen: Th Saints?

12:38
Pinstripe Wizard: Do you see any benefit for rebuilding teams to sign a decent amount of org filler types (think Crash Davis) and pay them a little more to accelerate their rebuild process by having “extra coaches” available at the minor league levels?

12:38
Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, I think that can be valuable. Or at least bringing on guys at the upper levels who are okay with the light burning out. Guys that aren’t can be toxic.

12:38
Anthony: Can Daulton Varsho catch?

12:39
Eric A Longenhagen: Mobile enough to stay back there and the receiving isn’t bad, but the arm could be prohibitive. I think he’s athletic enough that he can mitigate some of the arm strength issue with quickness, so we’ll see.

12:39
JB: Question on the sf giants minor league system, do you see any outfielders in their system right now that could fix their current outfield defense/power issues? Renoylds, Shaw, or Duggar? are they more than a year away?

12:40
Eric A Longenhagen: You might see DUggar next year and he’s a 4th OF type for me but will provide good defense. Shaw is a priority AFL guy for me because he was 1B-only in my eyes coming out of BC. Reynolds I like and think he’d be a good defensive OF, too.

12:40
Careagan: Do you think the circuitous path many major league hitters are taking to get to success (Turner, J.D. Martinez, etc.)  changes anything about prospect evaluation? Could there be a better way to find these guys or did they just take a while to hit their 90th + percentile outcome?

12:41
Eric A Longenhagen: Always looking for better ways to find guys. Martinez was more or less missed. Turner made a swing change in the big leagues that unlocked more than anyone thought was in there.

12:41
Carlo: Do you think Dubon gets a shot at MIL’s second base gig sometime next year, or will he break through in a utility role?

12:41
Eric A Longenhagen: UT guy for me

12:41
976: How’d you do in your sim league this year?  And do you evaluate players differently for sim-draft purposes than you do in your day-job?

12:44
Eric A Longenhagen: I had so many injuries that I had no choice but to cobble together a significant portion of my roster as the year went on. I Hinkied this year, think I’ll be picking 2 or 3 in the next draft but am in a good spot for a quick turnaround. Players who got more playing time are more valuable initially so that colors some of it, but I mostly stay true to myself and target up the middle athletes in that league. So far it’s left me with Billy Hamilton, Raimel Tapia, Tim Beckham, Freddy Galvis, Dee Gordon, Ketel Marte and some guys I’ve traded for other pieces.

12:44
Eric: What kind of offensive player do you see JP Crawford developing into?

12:45
Eric A Longenhagen: .270/.340/.400 but hey, with the new ball, maybe he’ll hit 30 homers.

12:45
John S: How big of a developmental impact, if any, is the Mets moving away from Vegas?  What happens to Vegas next? I mean does any team want to play in those conditions? I would think not

12:46
Eric A Longenhagen: It’s big because they get out of that hellhole and move to something with a more stable playing environment but also cut down the distance between their Triple-A and MLB clubs which will help with roster flexibility. I’m not sure who’d want to go to Vegas other than the Raiders

12:47
Anthony: Do you see Pavin Smith and/or Drew Ellis as potential regulars? Seems like Smith has no power and Ellis can’t hit, but do you think either have a ton of projection remaining?

12:47
Eric A Longenhagen: Smith has some power in those wrists but might need a bat path change to tap into it. Ellis does have some bat control but my issue there is I think he’s a 1B.

12:47
Dan: Any bright spots in KC’s system you’ve seen so far?

12:47
Eric A Longenhagen: Melendez was great all summer.

12:48
Eric A Longenhagen: Janser Lara sits 97+

12:49
John S: At what developmental point do you start worrying about BB to K ratio?  (I’m thinking specifically about Hudson Potts, but curious generally)

12:49
Eric A Longenhagen: If the sample is big enough then I at least ask if there’s enough else going on to buoy a profile if the issue persists.

12:50
Jon: When we talk about hitting prospects…how thin is the line between too agressive and too passive?

12:50
Eric A Longenhagen: 2011 Wil Myers

12:51
Eric A Longenhagen: If a player’s ‘patience’ means he’s taking pitches he should be demolishhing, he’s passive

12:51
Juan : doesn’t seem like Tony Kemp has a spot in Houston. how much value does he have?

12:51
Eric A Longenhagen: Lots of 2B/LF guys with speed to look to. Eric Young Jr is the first one that comes to mind.

12:52
Josh: What’s Keston Hiura’s ceiling if he can play average defense at 2B?

12:52
Eric A Longenhagen: All Star

12:52
Hatzis: Of all the outfielders in the Cardinals’ system (Sierra, Bader, O’Neill, Garcia, etc), who has the best shot of being an impact player for the club next season?

12:53
Eric A Longenhagen: Bader

12:53
YKnotDisco?!: Has the juiced ball in the majors influenced the way you evaluate game/raw power grades for prospects? Like, do you give em’ a +5 bump or something? Or, is that to drastic? Also, thanks for all the time you spend with us here.

12:55
Eric A Longenhagen: I’m still not sure. Like 5 years ago we were all worried about a new dead ball era of baseball and now we have this. Many different aspects of our game are evolving right now all at once. It’s hard to say what a big leage future looks like for an 18-year old when, in five years when they finally arrive, that league could be totally different. I’ll say I’ve considered adjustments to the scale we use here as far as velo and power are concerned and will probably move forward with changes as far as pitching is concerned but will wait until we have a longer track record of ridiculous home runs totals before doing the same for power.

12:55
Jerj Clooners: I initially read your headline as “Fatigue has arrived”, which is also a true statement.

12:56
Eric A Longenhagen: Indeed. And with that, I must go. Everyone please be well and enjoy the playoffs, see you next Tuesday right here.

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Eric Longenhagen is from Catasauqua, PA and currently lives in Tempe, AZ. He spent four years working for the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, two with Baseball Info Solutions and two contributing to prospect coverage at ESPN.com. Previous work can also be found at Sports On Earth, CrashburnAlley and Prospect Insider.

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YKnotDisco
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YKnotDisco

What happened with Adell? — for him to go from having an arm grade of 70 — only to drop all the way down to 30 in just over a years time.