FanGraphs Crowd: The Top 55 Free Agents

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series — which competition, barring some unforeseen circumstance, is likely to end today. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs once again facilitated this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the 2014-15 free-agent market.

Below are the results of same. For each player, respondents provided estimates of the years and dollars he’s likely to receive. Also, in such cases as a player is a candidate to receive a qualifying offer from his club, readers predicted whether he would or not — and whether, having received a qualifying offer, that player would accept it. Answers to other questions — regarding options, for example — also appear below.

In terms of how the projected contract values below are likely to relate to reality, a comparison between last year’s crowdsourced estimates and the actual contracts received reveals that the crowd typically missed by 37% on overall contract value and is most likely to underestimate the overall contract figures of the most high-profile free agents. It’s not unreasonable, in other words, to expect that Hanley Ramirez will receive more than the 5 years and $90 million he’s projected to receive. Of note, however, is that most of last year’s top free agents were hitters, while Max Scherzer and Jon Lester are the most formidable names among this year’s free-agent class. Whether this same principle of underestimating the contracts received by top free agents applies to pitchers, as well — for whom length of contract is an issue, given the possibility of injury — is a question that remains.

Note that players are ranked in terms of total median projected contract value. A spreadsheet containing the results is available here. Statistics are from 2014. Offensive and defensive value (denoted as Off and Def, respectively) are expressed relative to league average. Defensive value accounts both for defensive runs and positional adjustment. One can read more about both metrics here.

 

#1 Max Scherzer (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-WAR WAR
29 220.1 10.29 2.57 36.7 % 3.15 2.85 3.12 5.3 5.6

Median Years: 7
Median AAV: $24 million
Total: 7 years, $168 million

Average Years: 6.5
Average AAV: $23.6 million
Total: 6.5 years, $153.8 million

Will the Tigers extend Scherzer a qualifying offer (about $15.3M)?
Yes: 99%. No: 1%.

Will Scherzer accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
No: 99%. Yes: 1%.

 

#2 Jon Lester (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-WAR WAR
30 219.2 9.01 1.97 42.4 % 2.46 2.80 3.10 5.8 6.1

Median Years: 6
Median AAV: $22 million
Total: 6 years, $132 million

Average Years: 6.0
Average AAV: $21.5 million
Total: 6.0 years, $128.1 million

What are the chances Lester is re-signed by the Red Sox, with which franchise he spent the majority of his career, do you think?
Median guess: 30%.

 

#3 Hanley Ramirez (SS)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Off Def WAR
30 512 10.9 % 16.4 % .283 .369 .448 .362 135 21.8 -6.1 3.4

Median Years: 5
Median AAV: $18 million
Total: 5 years, $90 million

Average Years: 5.0
Average AAV: $17.5 million
Total: 5.0 years, $86.9 million

Will the Dodgers extend Ramirez a qualifying offer (about $15.3M)?
Yes: 97%. No: 3%.

Will Ramirez accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
No: 98%. Yes: 2%.

 

#4 James Shields (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-WAR WAR
32 227.0 7.14 1.74 45.2 % 3.21 3.59 3.56 3.9 3.7

Median Years: 5
Median AAV: $18 million
Total: 5 years, $90 million

Average Years: 4.7
Average AAV: $18.3 million
Total: 4.7 years,$86.0 million

Will the Royals extend Shields a qualifying offer (about $15.3M)?
Yes: 98%. No: 2%.

Will Shields accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
No: 99%. Yes: 1%.

 

#5 Pablo Sandoval (3B)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Off Def WAR
27 638 6.1 % 13.3 % .279 .324 .415 .323 111 3.3 5.3 3.0

Median Years: 5
Median AAV: $16 million
Total: 5 years, $80 million

Average Years: 5.0
Average AAV: $15.9 million
Total: 5.0 years, $79.0 million

Will the Giants extend Sandoval a qualifying offer (about $15.3M)?
Yes: 96%. No: 4%.

Will Sandoval accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
No: 96%. Yes: 4%.

There are multiple third-base free-agent options this offseason. Which of the following will record the highest WAR between now and his retirement?
Pablo Sandoval: 48%.
Hanley Ramirez: 34%.
Chase Headley: 18%.

 

#6 Russell Martin (C)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Off Def WAR
31 460 12.8 % 17.0 % .290 .402 .430 .370 140 19.4 14.9 5.3

Median Years: 4
Median AAV: $14 million
Total: 4 years, $56 million

Average Years: 3.6
Average AAV: $14.0 million
Total: 3.6 years, $51.0 million

Will Pittsburgh extend Martin a qualifying offer (about $15.3M)?
Yes: 86%. No: 14%.

Will Martin accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
No: 92%. Yes: 8%.

 

#7 Chase Headley (3B)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Off Def WAR
30 531 9.6 % 23.0 % .243 .328 .372 .316 103 2.1 21.6 4.4

Median Years: 4
Median AAV: $14 million
Total: 4 years, $56 million

Average Years: 3.7
Average AAV: $13.8 million
Total: 3.7 years, $50.8 million

Headley is the same age as Hanley Ramirez and plays (mostly) the same position and projected to record a better WAR per 600 plate appearance than Ramirez in 2015. What’s the probability he receives a larger contract than Ramirez?
Median Guess: 10%.

 

#8 Melky Cabrera (OF)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Off Def WAR
29 621 6.9 % 10.8 % .301 .351 .458 .354 125 16.0 -12.1 2.6

Median Years: 4
Median AAV: $13 million
Total: 4 years, $52 million

Average Years: 3.5
Average AAV: $13.4 million
Total: 3.5 years, $47.3 million

It’s been reported that the Blue Jays plan to extend a qualifying offer (worth about $15.3M) to Cabrera. Will he accept it?
No: 76%. Yes: 24%.

 

#9 Victor Martinez (C/DH)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Off Def WAR
35 641 10.9 % 6.6 % .335 .409 .565 .411 166 40.7 -21.2 4.4

Median Years: 3
Median AAV: $15 million
Total: 3 years, $45 million

Average Years: 3.2
Average AAV: $15.7 million
Total: 3.2 years, $49.4 million

Will the Tigers extend Martinez a qualifying offer (about $15.3M)?
Yes: 98%. No: 2%.

Will Martinez accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
No: 90%. Yes: 10%.

 

#10 Nelson Cruz (OF)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Off Def WAR
33 678 8.1 % 20.6 % .271 .333 .525 .370 137 24.6 -11.2 3.9

Median Years: 3
Median AAV: $15 million
Total: 3 years, $45 million

Average Years: 3.0
Average AAV: $14.8 million
Total: 3.0 years, $44.9 million

Will the Orioles extend Cruz a qualifying offer (about $15.3M)?
Yes: 92%. No: 8%.

Will Cruz accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
No: 87%. Yes: 13%.

 

#11 Ervin Santana (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-WAR WAR
31 196.0 8.22 2.89 42.7 % 3.95 3.39 3.47 1.8 2.8

Median Years: 3
Median AAV: $13 million
Total: 3 years, $39 million

Average Years: 3.2
Average AAV: $13.5 million
Total: 3.2 years, $43.6 million

Will the Atlanta Baseball Club extend Santana a qualifying offer (about $15.3M)?
Yes: 70%. No: 30%.

Will Santana accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
No: 78%. Yes: 22%.

 

#12 Francisco Liriano (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-WAR WAR
30 162.1 9.70 4.49 54.4 % 3.38 3.59 3.40 2.0 1.6

Median Years: 3
Median AAV: $12 million
Total: 3 years, $36 million

Average Years: 3.2
Average AAV: $12.9 million
Total: 3.2 years, $40.8 million

Will the Pirates extend Liriano a qualifying offer (about $15.3M)?
No: 61%. Yes: 39%.

Will Liriano accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
No: 67%. Yes: 33%.

 

#13 Brandon McCarthy (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-WAR WAR
30 200.0 7.88 1.49 52.6 % 4.05 3.55 2.87 1.7 3.0

Median Years: 3
Median AAV: $12 million
Total: 3 years, $36 million

Average Years: 3.1
Average AAV: $12.5 million
Total: 3.1 years, $38.3 million

 

#14 Nick Markakis (OF)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Off Def WAR
30 710 8.7 % 11.8 % .276 .342 .386 .325 106 2.1 -2.5 2.5

Median Years: 3
Median AAV: $11 million
Total: 3 years, $33 million

Average Years: 3.4
Average AAV: $11.8 million
Total: 3.4 years, $39.8 million

Markakis and the Orioles have a $17.5M mutual option for 2015 with a $2.0M buyout. What will happen?
Markakis Exercises, Orioles Decline: 73%.
Both Decline: 18%.
Orioles Exercise, Markakis Declines: 5%.
Both Exercise: 4%.

 

#15 Asdrubal Cabrera (SS)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Off Def WAR
28 616 8.0 % 17.5 % .241 .307 .387 .308 97 0.7 -4.1 1.8

Median Years: 3
Median AAV: $11 million
Total: 3 years, $33 million

Average Years: 3.2
Average AAV: $11.2 million
Total: 3.2 years, $35.2 million

At what position will Cabrera be utilized?
Predominantly SS: 40%.
Both SS and 2B: 31%.
Predominantly 2B: 29%.

 

#16 Colby Rasmus (OF)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Off Def WAR
27 376 7.7 % 33.0 % .225 .287 .448 .321 103 2.2 -8.8 0.6

Median Years: 3
Median AAV: $10 million 
Total: 3 years, $30 million

Average Years: 2.6
Average AAV: $10.0 million
Total: 2.6 years, $25.6 million

 

#17 David Robertson (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-WAR WAR
29 64.1 13.43 3.22 44.2 % 3.08 2.68 2.13 1.5 1.7

Median Years: 3
Median AAV: $10 million
Total: 3 years, $30 million

Average Years: 3.2
Average AAV: $10.7 million
Total: 3.2 years, $34.1 million

 

#18 Jed Lowrie (SS)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Off Def WAR
30 566 9.0 % 14.0 % .249 .321 .355 .300 93 -7.5 6.0 1.9

Median Years: 3
Median AAV: $10 million
Total: 3 years, $30 million

Average Years: 2.7
Average AAV: $9.6 million
Total: 2.7 years, $25.6 million

 

#19 Jason Hammel (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-WAR WAR
31 176.1 8.06 2.25 39.7 % 3.47 3.92 3.57 3.1 1.7

Median Years: 3
Median AAV: $9 million
Total: 3 years, $27 million

Average Years: 2.6
Average AAV: $9.6 million
Total: 2.6 years, $24.8 million

 

#20 Jake Peavy (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-WAR WAR
33 202.2 7.02 2.80 38.5 % 3.73 4.11 4.18 2.7 1.9

Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $12 million
Total: 2 years, $24 million

Average Years: 2.4
Average AAV: $12.5 million
Total: 2.4 years, $29.4 million

 

#21 Andrew Miller (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-WAR WAR
29 62.1 14.87 2.45 46.9 % 2.02 1.51 1.58 2.0 2.3

Median Years: 3
Median AAV: $8 million
Total: 3 years, $24 million

Average Years: 3.1 
Average AAV: $8.4 million
Total: 3.1 years, $26.0 million

Not for nothing, will Andrew Miller be signed as a closer?
No: 62%. Yes: 38%.

 

#22 Aramis Ramirez (3B)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Off Def WAR
36 531 4.0 % 14.1 % .285 .330 .427 .334 109 2.3 1.3 2.1

Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $10 million
Total: 2 years, $20 million

Average Years: 2.0
Average AAV: $12.4 million
Total: 2.0 years, $24.6 million

Ramirez and the Brewers have a $14.0M mutual option for 2015 with a $4.0M buyout. What will happen?
Both Decline, But Ramirez Signs Two-Year Deal: 31%.
Brewers Exercise, Ramirez Declines: 28%.
Both Exercise: 22%.
Ramirez Exercises, Brewers Decline: 16%.
Both Decline: 3%.

 

#23 Adam LaRoche (1B)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Off Def WAR
34 586 14.0 % 18.4 % .259 .362 .455 .356 127 12.5 -15.4 1.6

Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $10 million
Total: 2 years, $20 million

Average Years: 2.1
Average AAV: $10.8 million
Total: 2.1 years, $22.8 million

 

#24 Alex Rios (OF)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Off Def WAR
33 521 4.4 % 17.9 % .280 .311 .398 .309 92 -4.4 -10.9 0.2

Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $10 million
Total: 2 years, $20 million

Average Years: 2.0
Average AAV: $9.6 million
Total: 2.0 years, $18.9 million

The Rangers hold a $13.5M option (with a $1M buyout) on Rios’s contract. Will they exercise it?
No: 91%. Yes: 9%.

 

#25 Billy Butler (1B/DH)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Off Def WAR
28 603 6.8 % 15.9 % .271 .323 .379 .311 97 -7.5 -14.5 -0.3

Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $9 million
Total: 2 years, $18 million

Average Years: 2.5 
Average AAV: $9.4 million
Total: 2.5 years, $23.3 million

The Royals hold a $12.5M option (with a $1M buyout) on Butler for 2015. Will they exercise it?
No: 67%. Yes: 33%.

 

#26 Michael Cuddyer (OF)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Off Def WAR
35 205 6.8 % 14.6 % .332 .376 .579 .414 151 12.9 -5.2 1.5

Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $9 million
Total: 2 years, $18 million

Average Years: 1.8
Average AAV: $9.3 million
Total: 1.8 years, $16.5 million

 

#27 Edinson Volquez (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-WAR WAR
30 192.2 6.54 3.32 50.4 % 3.04 4.15 4.20 3.0 0.7

Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $8 million
Total: 2 years, $16 million

Average Years: 2.0
Average AAV: $8.4 million
Total: 2.0 years, $16.8 million

 

#28 Hiroki Kuroda (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-WAR WAR
39 199.0 6.60 1.58 46.9 % 3.71 3.60 3.54 2.8 3.5

Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $15 million
Total: 1 year, $15 million

Average Years: 1.2
Average AAV: $14.6 million
Total: 1.2 years, $17.6 million

Will the Yankees extend Kuroda a qualifying offer (about $15.3M)?
Yes: 82%. No: 18%.

Will Kuroda accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
Yes: 60%. No: 40%.

 

#29 Nori Aoki (OF)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Off Def WAR
32 549 7.8 % 8.9 % .285 .349 .360 .320 104 -7.7 0.2 1.1

Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $7 million
Total: 2 years, $14 million

Average Years: 2.5
Average AAV: $7.4 million
Total: 2.5 years, $18.3 million

Were you aware that Aoki made so little (just $4.0M plus incentives over three years) from his first MLB contract?
Yes: 35%. No: 38%. No, that’s shocking: 27%.

 

#30 Rafael Soriano (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-WAR WAR
34 62.0 8.56 2.76 31.6 % 3.19 3.08 3.92 0.7 0.7

Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $7 million
Total: 2 years, $14 million

Average Years: 1.8
Average AAV: $7.5 million
Total: 1.8 years, $13.8 million

The Nationals hold a $14M option on Soriano’s contract for 2015. Will they exercise it? 
No: 95%. Yes: 5%.

 

#31 Sergio Romo (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-WAR WAR
31 58.0 9.16 1.86 36.8 % 3.72 3.94 3.40 0.1 -0.3

Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $6 million
Total: 2 years, $12 million

Average Years: 1.9
Average AAV: $5.9 million
Total: 1.9 years, $11.2 million

 

#32 Rickie Weeks (2B)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Off Def WAR
31 286 8.7 % 25.5 % .274 .357 .452 .359 127 9.1 -7.0 1.2

Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $6 million
Total: 2 years, $12 million

Average Years: 1.7
Average AAV: $6.3 million
Total: 1.7 years, $10.9 million

Milwaukee holds an $11.5M option (no buyout) on Weeks’ contract for 2015. Will they exercise it?
No: 95%. Yes: 5%.

 

#33 A.J. Burnett (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-WAR WAR
37 213.2 8.00 4.04 50.9 % 4.59 4.14 3.95 -0.5 1.0

Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $10 million
Total: 1 year, $10 million

Average Years: 1.1
Average AAV: $10.7 million
Total: 1.1 years, $12.3 million

Burnett’s contract features a mutual option for $15M (with a $1M buyout) and/or player option for $12.8M. What will happen?
The Phillies decline the mutual option, but Burnett exercises the player option: 66%.
Burnett opts out entirely, choosing to become a free agent: 21%.
Both the Phillies and Burnett exercise the mutual option: 13%.

 

#34 Torii Hunter (OF)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Off Def WAR
38 586 3.9 % 15.2 % .286 .319 .446 .335 113 8.9 -24.7 0.3

Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $10 million
Total: 1 year, $10 million

Average Years: 1.2
Average AAV: $9.7 million
Total: 1.2 years, $11.7 million

 

#35 Emilio Bonifacio (2B/OF)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Off Def WAR
29 426 6.1 % 20.0 % .259 .305 .345 .289 81 -4.3 10.8 2.1

Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $5 million
Total: 2 years, $10 million

Average Years: 2.0
Average AAV: $5.3 million
Total: 2.0 years, $10.7 million

 

#36 Justin Masterson (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-WAR WAR
29 128.2 8.11 4.83 58.2 % 5.88 4.50 4.08 -1.8 0.3

Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $9 million
Total: 1 year, $9 million

Average Years: 1.8
Average AAV: $9.5 million
Total: 1.8 years, $17.2 million

 

#37 Dan Haren (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-WAR WAR
33 186.0 7.02 1.74 41.5 % 4.02 4.09 3.70 -0.3 1.0

Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $8 million
Total: 1 year, $8 million

Average Years: 1.5
Average AAV: $8.6 million
Total: 1.5 years, $12.8 million

For pitching 180 innings in 2014, Haren earned a player option for 2015 worth $10M. Will he exercise it?
Yes: 83%. No: 17%.

 

#38 Koji Uehara (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-WAR WAR
39 64.1 11.19 1.12 32.3 % 2.52 3.09 2.41 2.2 1.4

Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $8 million
Total: 1 year, $8 million

Average Years: 1.4
Average AAV: $8.5 million
Total: 1.4 years, $11.9 million

 

#39 Stephen Drew (SS)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Off Def WAR
31 300 9.0 % 25.0 % .162 .237 .299 .238 44 -21.6 1.5 -1.1

Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $7 million
Total: 1 year, $7 million

Average Years: 1.5
Average AAV: $7.2 million
Total: 1.5 years, $10.4 million

 

#40 Michael Morse (1B/OF)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Off Def WAR
32 482 6.4 % 25.1 % .279 .336 .475 .355 133 12.8 -18.0 1.0

Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $7 million
Total: 1 year, $7 million

Average Years: 1.4
Average AAV: $7.0 million
Total: 1.4 years, $10.0 million

 

#41 Brett Anderson (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-WAR WAR
26 43.1 6.02 2.70 61.0 % 2.91 2.99 3.55 0.9 1.1

Median Years:
Median AAV: $7 million
Total: 1 year, $7 million

Average Years: 1.4
Average AAV: $7.1 million
Total: 1.4 years, $10.0 million

The Rockies hold a $12.0M option (with a $1.5M buyout) on Anderson for 2015. Will they exercise it?
No: 85%. Yes: 15%.

 

#42 Ryan Vogelsong (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-WAR WAR
36 184.2 7.36 2.83 38.4 % 4.00 3.85 3.96 0.9 1.0

Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $7 million
Total: 1 year, $7 million

Average Years: 1.4
Average AAV: $6.8 million
Total: 1.4 years, $9.6 million

 

#43 Aaron Harang (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-WAR WAR
36 204.1 7.09 3.13 39.4 % 3.57 3.57 4.03 2.5 2.5

Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $6 million
Total: 1 year, $6 million

Average Years: 1.4
Average AAV: $6.6 million
Total: 1.4 years, $9.4 million

 

#44 Brandon Morrow (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-WAR WAR
29 33.1 8.10 4.86 50.5 % 5.67 3.73 4.06 -0.2 0.4

Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $6 million
Total: 1 year, $6 million

Average Years: 1.3
Average AAV: $6.7 million
Total: 1.3 years, $9.0 million

Toronto holds a $10M option ($1M buyout) on Morrow’s contract for 2015. Will they exercise it?
No: 77%. Yes: 23%.

 

#45 Kendrys Morales (1B/DH)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Off Def WAR
31 401 6.7 % 17.0 % .218 .274 .338 .271 72 -17.2 -11.5 -1.7

Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $6 million
Total: 1 year, $6 million

Average Years: 1.2
Average AAV: $6.1 million
Total: 1.2 years, $7.1 million

The Seattle front office has exhibited a peculiar fascination with Morales. Will they sign him for 2015 (and perhaps beyond), as well?
Yes: 62%. No: 38%.

 

#46 Francisco Rodriguez (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-WAR WAR
32 68.0 9.66 2.38 43.9 % 3.04 4.50 2.91 1.3 -0.6

Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $5 million
Total: 1 year, $5 million

Average Years: 1.5
Average AAV: $5.7 million
Total: 1.5 years, $8.7 million

 

#47 Gavin Floyd (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-WAR WAR
31 54.1 7.45 2.15 49.4 % 2.65 3.79 3.47 0.7 0.5

Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $5 million
Total: 1 year, $5 million

Average Years: 1.4
Average AAV: $6.0 million
Total: 1.4 years, $8.3 million

 

#48 Chris Young (OF)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Off Def WAR
30 366 8.7 % 19.1 % .222 .299 .385 .303 95 -0.2 -7.4 0.4

Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $5 million
Total: 1 year, $5 million

Average Years: 1.4
Average AAV: $5.8 million
Total: 1.4 years, $8.1 million

 

#49 Josh Johnson (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-WAR WAR
29 81.1 9.18 3.32 45.1 % 6.20 4.62 3.58 -1.2 0.6

Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $5 million
Total: 1 year, $5 million

Average Years: 1.2
Average AAV: $5.4 million
Total: 1.2 years, $6.5 million

The Padres hold a $4M option on Johnson for 2015. Will they exercise it?
Yes: 83%. No: 17%.

 

#50 Chris Young (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-WAR WAR
35 165.0 5.89 3.27 22.3 % 3.65 5.02 5.19 2.4 0.2

Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $5 million
Total: 1 year, $5 million

Average Years: 1.2 
Average AAV: $5.2 million
Total: 1.2 years, $6.4 million

 

#51 Chad Billingsley (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-WAR WAR
28 12.0 4.50 3.75 41.7 % 3.00 4.38 4.66 0.3 0.0

Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $5 million
Total: 1 year, $5 million

Average Years: 1.2
Average AAV: $5.2 million
Total: 1.2 years, $6.0 million

The Dodgers hold a $14M option (with a $3M buyout) on Billingsley for 2015. Will they exercise it?
No: 97%. Yes: 3%.

Briefly, explain how in the hell you reached any of these conclusions about a player who hasn’t pitched in over a year.
“Josh Johnson comparable.”
“Rough guess of a short-term bounce-back contract.”
“Consulted with my 7-year-old son.”

 

#52 Ichiro Suzuki (OF)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Off Def WAR
40 385 5.5 % 17.7 % .284 .324 .340 .296 86 -3.6 -5.5 0.4

Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $5 million
Total: 1 year, $5 million

Average Years: 1.1
Average AAV: $4.7 million
Total: 1.1 years, $5.2 million

 

#53 Mark Reynolds (1B/3B)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Off Def WAR
30 433 10.9 % 28.2 % .196 .287 .394 .302 87 -5.0 7.1 1.6

Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $4 million
Total: 1 year, $4 million

Average Years: 1.2
Average AAV: $4.8 million
Total: 1.2 years, $5.8 million

 

#54 Chris Capuano (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-WAR WAR
35 97.1 7.77 3.14 39.5 % 4.35 3.91 3.89 0.4 1.0

Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $4 million
Total: 1 year, $4 million

Average Years: 1.2
Average AAV: $4.5 million
Total: 1.2 years, $5.2 million

Dave Cameron probably thinks Kyle Kendrick should receive a ballot instead of Capuano. Which of the pair (Capuano or Kendrick) will get a bigger contract?
Kendrick: 67%. Capuano: 33%.

 

#55 Delmon Young (OF)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Off Def WAR
28 255 3.9 % 20.0 % .302 .337 .442 .345 120 5.9 -5.6 0.9

Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $3 million
Total: 1 year, $3 million

Average Years: 1.3
Average AAV: $3.7 million
Total: 1.3 years, $4.8 million

We hoped you liked reading FanGraphs Crowd: The Top 55 Free Agents by Carson Cistulli!

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Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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There was no qualifying offer vote for Robertson? There’s been a lot of speculation that he could be offered one.