FanGraphs Crowd: The Top 82 Free Agents

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs once again facilitated this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the 2015-16 free-agent market.

Below are the results of same. For each player, respondents provided estimates of the years and dollars he’s likely to receive. Also, in such cases as a player is a candidate to receive a qualifying offer from his club, readers predicted whether he would or not — and whether, having received a qualifying offer, that player would accept it. Answers to other questions — regarding options, for example — also appear below.

What the reader will note regarding this particular list relative to previous iterations of same is its considerable length. This same exercise last year contained 55 names; the year before that, 47. Below, one finds 82 of them. The greater size is not the product of a concerted effort to provide greater coverage, but rather of mere necessity: the quantity of useful free agents (or potential free agents, at least) appears itself simply to be greater than in recent years.

Note that players with options certain to be exercised were omitted from balloting. Note also that, despite having received ballots, both Jaime Garcia and Torii Hunter have been omitted from the list below, owing to their near futures having been already determined — by the exercise of an option in the former case, retirement in the latter. Note finally that the crowd has demonstrated a distinct tendency to underestimate the overall contract values of free agents — especially among those players expected to receive the greatest compensation.

Players are ranked by total median projected contract value — and then, in such cases where players have received the same median contract estimate, by the total average contract value. A spreadsheet containing the results is available here. Statistics are from 2015. Offensive and defensive value are expressed relative to league average. Defensive value accounts both for defensive runs and positional adjustment. One can read more about both metrics here.

 

#1 David Price (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
29 220.1 9.19 1.92 40.4 % 2.45 2.78 3.24 7.1 6.4

Median Years: 7
Median AAV: $28 million
Total: $196 million

Average Years: 6.9
Average AAV: $27.5 million
Total: $190.8 million

 

#2 Jason Heyward (OF)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
25 610 9.2 % 14.8 % .293 .359 .439 .346 121 21.6 16.4 6.0

Median Years: 8
Median AAV: $23 million
Total: $184 million

Average Years: 7.7
Average AAV: $22.7 million
Total: $174.7 million

Will the Cardinals extend Heyward a qualifying offer ($15.8M)?
Yes: 98%. No: 2%.

Will Heyward accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
No: 98%. Yes: 2%.

 

#3 Zack Greinke (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
31 222.2 8.08 1.62 48.0 % 1.66 2.76 3.22 10.0 5.9

Median Years: 6
Median AAV: $26 million
Total: $156 million

Average Years: 5.8
Average AAV: $26.7 million
Total: $155.3 million

*Assumes he opts out of the three years and $71 million remaining on his contract, which he’s expected to do.

 

#4 Yoenis Cespedes (OF)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
29 676 4.9 % 20.9 % .291 .328 .542 .367 135 31.2 10.6 6.7

Median Years: 6
Median AAV: $22 million
Total: $132 million

Average Years: 6.0
Average AAV: $21.5 million
Total: $128.4million

This guy really has the goods, doesn’t he?
Agree: 45%.
Strongly Agree: 29%.
Stupid Question: 15%.
Disagree: 10%.
Strongly Disagree: 1%.

 

#5 Johnny Cueto (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
29 212.0 7.47 1.95 42.5 % 3.44 3.53 3.78 4.3 4.1

Median Years: 6
Median AAV: $22 million
Total: $132 million

Average Years: 5.5
Average AAV: $21.0 million
Total: $115.6 million

 

#6 Jordan Zimmermann (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
29 201.2 7.32 1.74 42.0 % 3.66 3.75 3.82 2.9 3.0

Median Years: 6
Median AAV: $21 million
Total: $126 million

Average Years: 5.6
Average AAV: $20.8 million
Total: $116.8 million

Will the Nationals extend Zimmermann a qualifying offer ($15.8M)?
Yes: 99%. No: 1%.

Will Zimmermann accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
No: 99%. Yes: 1%.

 

#7 Justin Upton (OF)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
27 620 11.0 % 25.6 % .251 .336 .454 .340 120 18.8 -4.6 3.6

Median Years: 6
Median AAV: $20 million
Total: $120 million

Average Years: 6.4
Average AAV: $20.4 million
Total: $129.7 million

Will the Padres extend Upton a qualifying offer ($15.8M)?
Yes: 100%. No: 0%.

Will Upton accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
No: 99%. Yes: 1%.

 

#8 Chris Davis (1B)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
29 670 12.5 % 31.0 % .262 .361 .562 .390 147 36.3 -5.5 5.6

Median Years: 5
Median AAV: $20 million
Total: $100 million

Average Years: 5.3
Average AAV: $20.5 million
Total: $109.3 million

Imagine to yourself 1,000 different universes. In how many of them do the Orioles extend a qualifying offer to Chris Davis?
100% of them: 46%.
Somehow more than 100% of them: 45%.
99% of them: 9%.

 

#9 Alex Gordon (3B/OF)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
31 422 11.6 % 21.8 % .271 .377 .432 .351 122 10.2 2.2 2.8

Median Years: 5
Median AAV: $18 million
Total: $90 million

Average Years: 4.9
Average AAV: $18.6 million
Total: $92.2 million

After Gordon declines his $12.5M player option, the Royals will extend Gordon a qualifying offer ($15.8M). Will he accept it?
No: 100%.

 

#10 Jeff Samardzija (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
30 214.0 6.86 2.06 39.0 % 4.96 4.23 4.31 1.0 2.7

Median Years: 4
Median AAV: $16 million
Total: $64 million

Average Years: 4.3
Average AAV: $16.2 million
Total: $69.7 million

Will the White Sox extend Samardzija a qualifying offer ($15.8M)?
Yes: 92%. No: 8%.

Will Samardzija accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
No: 90%. Yes: 10%.

What mnemonic device, if any, do you employ to spell correctly this player’s surname?
Top Response #1: Google his name and let it auto-correct me.
Top Response #2: Wait, mnemonic device starts with an “m”?
Top Response #3: The black void swallows us all.

 

 

#11 Ian Desmond (SS)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
29 641 7.0 % 29.2 % .233 .290 .384 .294 83 -7.1 3.3 1.7

Median Years: 4
Median AAV: $15 million
Total: $60 million

Average Years: 4.2
Average AAV: $14.4 million
Total: $59.9 million

Will the Nationals extend Desmond a qualifying offer ($15.8M)?
Yes: 81%. No: 19%.

Will Desmond accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
No: 84%. Yes: 16%.

 

#12 Mike Leake (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
27 192.0 5.58 2.30 51.8 % 3.70 4.20 3.93 3.1 1.7

Median Years: 4
Median AAV: $14 million
Total: $56 million

Average Years: 4.4
Average AAV: $14.0 million
Total: $61.4 million

 

#13 Yovani Gallardo (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
29 184.1 5.91 3.32 49.3 % 3.42 4.00 4.31 4.3 2.5

Median Years: 4
Median AAV: $14 million
Total: $56 million

Average Years: 3.9
Average AAV: $14.0 million
Total: $55.2 million

Will the Rangers extend Gallardo a qualifying offer ($15.8M)?
Yes: 89%. No: 11%.

Will Gallardo accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
No: 91%. Yes: 9%.

 

#14 Dexter Fowler (OF)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
29 690 12.2 % 22.3 % .250 .346 .411 .333 110 8.1 0.6 3.2

Median Years: 4
Median AAV: $14 million
Total: $56 million

Average Years: 3.9
Average AAV: $13.8 million
Total: $54.3 million

Will the Cubs extend Fowler a qualifying offer ($15.8M)?
Yes: 76%. No: 24%.

Will Fowler accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
No: 84%. Yes: 16%.

 

#15 Wei-Yin Chen (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
29 191.1 7.20 1.93 40.5 % 3.34 4.16 4.01 4.2 2.8

Median Years: 4
Median AAV: $13 million
Total: $52 million

Average Years: 3.8
Average AAV: $13.1 million
Total: $50.2 million

Will the Orioles extend Chen a qualifying offer ($15.8M)?
Yes: 71%. No: 29%.

Will Chen accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
No: 83%. Yes: 17%.

 

#16 Howie Kendrick (2B)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
31 495 5.5 % 16.6 % .295 .336 .409 .325 109 7.1 -2.8 2.1

Median Years: 4
Median AAV: $13 million
Total: $52 million

Average Years: 3.7
Average AAV: $13.2 million
Total: $48.5 million

Will the Dodgers extend Kendrick a qualifying offer ($15.8M)?
Yes: 73%. No: 27%.

Will Kendrick accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
No: 79%. Yes: 21%.

Without looking, guess which figure is closest to Kendrick’s career BABIP over nearly 5,000 plate appearances.
Median guess (selected from range of .260-.350 by 10-point increments): .320.

 

#17 Matt Wieters (C)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
29 282 7.4 % 23.8 % .267 .319 .422 .321 100 -2.7 2.5 1.0

Median Years: 4
Median AAV: $12 million
Total: $48 million

Average Years: 3.7
Average AAV: $12.6 million
Total: $47.1 million

Will the Orioles extend Wieters a qualifying offer ($15.8M)?
Yes: 64%. No: 36%.

Will Wieters accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
No: 69%. Yes: 31%.

 

#18 Daniel Murphy (2B)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
30 538 5.8 % 7.1 % .281 .322 .449 .325 110 5.9 1.0 2.5

Median Years: 4
Median AAV: $12 million
Total: $48 million

Average Years: 3.7
Average AAV: $12.6 million
Total: $46.2 million

Will the Mets extend Murphy a qualifying offer ($15.8M)?
Yes: 61%. No: 39%.

Will Murphy accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
No: 73%. Yes: 27%.

 

#19 Scott Kazmir (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
31 183.0 7.62 2.90 42.9 % 3.10 3.98 4.14 3.6 2.4

Median Years: 3
Median AAV: $14 million
Total: $42 million

Average Years: 3.3
Average AAV: $14.6 million
Total: $47.8 million

 

#20 Ben Zobrist (2B/OF)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
34 535 11.6 % 10.5 % .276 .359 .450 .349 123 13.3 -11.5 2.1

Median Years: 3
Median AAV: $14 million
Total: $42 million

Average Years: 3.3
Average AAV: $14.1 million
Total: $46.3 million

 

#21 Hisashi Iwakuma (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
34 129.2 7.70 1.46 50.4 % 3.54 3.74 3.27 2.5 1.8

Median Years: 3
Median AAV: $14 million
Total: $42 million

Average Years: 3.0
Average AAV: $14.5 million
Total: $42.8 million

Will the Mariners extend Iwakuma a qualifying offer ($15.8M)?
Yes: 83%. No: 17%.

Will Iwakuma accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
No: 83%. Yes: 17%.

 

#22 Colby Rasmus (OF)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
28 485 9.7 % 31.8 % .238 .314 .475 .339 115 13.4 -3.0 2.8

Median Years: 3
Median AAV: $12 million
Total: $36 million

Average Years: 3.4
Average AAV: $12.4 million
Total: $42.5 million

Will the Astros extend Rasmus a qualifying offer ($15.8M)?
No: 57%. Yes: 43%.

Will Rasmus accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
No: 75%. Yes: 25%.

 

#23 Marco Estrada (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
31 181.0 6.51 2.73 32.2 % 3.13 4.40 4.93 4.5 1.8

Median Years: 3
Median AAV: $12 million
Total: $36 million

Average Years: 3.1
Average AAV: $12.0 million
Total: $37.4 million

Will the Blue Jays extend Estrada a qualifying offer ($15.8M)?
No: 58%. Yes: 42%.

Will Estrada accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
No: 53%. Yes: 47%.

Were you to inform your past self from, like, a month ago that you were contemplating Marco Estrada’s potential receipt of a qualifying offer, would your past self believe you?
No: 69%. Yes: 31%.

 

#24 Ian Kennedy (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
30 168.1 9.30 2.78 38.5 % 4.28 4.51 3.70 -0.3 0.8

Median Years: 3
Median AAV: $12 million
Total: $36 million

Average Years: 3.0
Average AAV: $12.2 million
Total: $37.1 million

Will the Padres extend Kennedy a qualifying offer ($15.8M)?
No: 57%. Yes: 43%.

Will Kennedy accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
No: 62%. Yes: 38%.

 

#25 Denard Span (OF)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
31 275 9.1 % 9.5 % .301 .365 .431 .348 120 8.9 -4.0 1.4

Median Years: 3
Median AAV: $12 million
Total: $36 million

Average Years: 3.0
Average AAV: $12.0 million
Total: $35.4 million

Will the Nationals extend Span a qualifying offer ($15.8M)?
No: 57%. Yes: 43%.

Will Span accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
No: 59%. Yes: 41%.

 

#26 J.A. Happ (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
32 172.0 7.90 2.35 41.6 % 3.61 3.41 3.69 3.2 3.3

Median Years: 3
Median AAV: $11 million
Total: $33 million

Average Years: 2.8
Average AAV: $11.0 million
Total: $30.6 million

 

#27 Brett Anderson (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
27 180.1 5.79 2.30 66.3 % 3.69 3.94 3.51 1.9 1.7

Median Years: 3
Median AAV: $11 million
Total: $33 million

Average Years: 2.7
Average AAV: $11.1 million
Total: $30.1 million

Will the Dodgers extend Anderson a qualifying offer ($15.8M)?
No: 54%. Yes: 46%.

Will Anderson accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
No: 52%. Yes: 48%.

 

#28 John Lackey (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
36 218.0 7.22 2.19 46.0 % 2.77 3.57 3.77 5.9 3.6

Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $15 million
Total: $30 million

Average Years: 2.4
Average AAV: $14.9 million
Total: $35.0 million

Will the Cardinals extend Lackey a qualifying offer ($15.8M)?
Yes: 85%. No: 15%.

Will Lackey accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
No: 80%. Yes: 20%.

 

#29 Austin Jackson (OF)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
28 527 5.5 % 23.9 % .267 .311 .385 .305 94 -3.4 8.3 2.3

Median Years: 3
Median AAV: $10 million
Total: $30 million

Average Years: 2.8
Average AAV: $9.9 million
Total: $27.3 million

 

#30 Asdrubal Cabrera (SS)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
29 551 6.5 % 19.4 % .265 .315 .430 .319 104 3.3 -0.5 2.2

Median Years: 3
Median AAV: $9 million
Total: $27 million

Average Years: 2.7
Average AAV: $9.6 million
Total: $25.9 million

 

#31 Gerardo Parra (OF)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
28 589 4.8 % 15.6 % .291 .328 .452 .334 108 7.4 -22.1 0.4

Median Years: 3
Median AAV: $8 million
Total: $24 million

Average Years: 3.0
Average AAV: $9.1 million
Total: $27.1 million

 

#32 Mat Latos (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
27 116.1 7.74 2.48 43.9 % 4.95 3.72 3.69 -0.1 1.5

Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $11 million
Total: $22 million

Average Years: 2.2
Average AAV: $10.3 million
Total: $22.2 million

 

#33 Darren O’Day (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
32 65.1 11.30 1.93 35.1 % 1.52 2.49 3.05 2.7 1.8

Median Years: 3
Median AAV: $7 million
Total: $21 million

Average Years: 2.8
Average AAV: $7.5 million
Total: $20.8 million

 

#34 Doug Fister (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
31 103.0 5.50 2.10 44.6 % 4.19 4.55 4.46 0.2 0.2

Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $10 million
Total: $20 million

Average Years: 2.0
Average AAV: $10.5 million
Total: $20.9 million

Will the Nationals extend Fister a qualifying offer ($15.8M)?
No: 90%. Yes: 10%.

Will Fister accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
Yes: 74%. No: 26%.

What percentage of Fister’s appearances in 2016 will come in a starting capacity?
Median answer (selected from range of 0%-100% by 10% increments): 90%.

 

#35 R.A. Dickey (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
40 214.1 5.29 2.56 41.9 % 3.91 4.48 4.72 3.6 2.0

Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $10 million
Total: $20 million

Average Years: 1.6
Average AAV: $10.6 million
Total: $17.0 million

The Blue Jays hold a $12.0M option on Dickey’s contract ($1.0M buyout). Will they exercise it?
Yes: 77%. No: 23%.

 

#36 David Freese (3B)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
32 470 6.6 % 22.8 % .257 .323 .420 .325 110 4.4 1.2 2.2

Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $9 million
Total: $18 million

Average Years: 2.5
Average AAV: $9.5 million
Total: $23.8 million

 

#37 Mike Napoli (C/1B)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
33 469 12.2 % 25.2 % .224 .324 .410 .321 98 -3.8 -5.4 0.7

Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $9 million
Total: $18 million

Average Years: 1.8
Average AAV: $9.1 million
Total: $16.2 million

 

#38 Mike Pelfrey (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
31 164.2 4.70 2.46 51.0 % 4.26 4.00 4.45 1.5 2.0

Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $8 million
Total: $16 million

Average Years: 2.1
Average AAV: $8.1 million
Total: $16.9 million

 

#39 Alexei Ramirez (SS)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
33 622 5.0 % 10.9 % .249 .285 .357 .279 72 -25.3 0.4 -0.5

Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $8 million
Total: $16 million

Average Years: 2.0
Average AAV: $8.2 million
Total: $16.2 million

The White Sox hold a $10.0M option on Ramirez’ contract ($1.0M buyout). Will they exercise it?
Yes: 54%. No: 46%.

 

#40 Juan Uribe (3B/SS)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
36 397 8.6 % 20.2 % .253 .320 .417 .319 104 2.7 2.6 1.9

Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $8 million
Total: $16 million

Average Years: 1.6
Average AAV: $7.8 million
Total: $12.7 million

 

#41 Joakim Soria (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
31 67.2 8.51 2.53 42.3 % 2.53 3.71 3.57 1.9 0.4

Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $7 million
Total: $14 million

Average Years: 2.3
Average AAV: $7.4 million
Total: $16.9 million

 

#42 Nori Aoki (OF)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
33 392 7.7 % 6.4 % .287 .353 .380 .326 112 2.1 -0.5 1.5

Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $7 million
Total: $14 million

Average Years: 2.1
Average AAV: $7.6 million
Total: $15.7 million

The Giants hold a $5.5M option on Aoki’s contract ($0.7M buyout). Will they exercise it?
Yes: 96%. No: 4%.

 

#43 Alex Avila (C)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
28 219 18.3 % 30.1 % .191 .339 .287 .294 82 -5.8 1.8 0.3

Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $6 million
Total: $12 million

Average Years: 2.2
Average AAV: $7.3 million
Total: $16.1 million

 

#44 Chris Iannetta (C)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
32 317 12.9 % 26.2 % .188 .293 .335 .281 80 -11.0 5.4 0.5

Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $6 million
Total: $12 million

Average Years: 2.0
Average AAV: $7.2 million
Total: $14.2 million

 

#45 Steve Pearce (1B/OF)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
32 325 7.1 % 21.2 % .218 .289 .422 .308 91 -3.5 -3.9 0.3

Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $6 million
Total: $12 million

Average Years: 2.0
Average AAV: $7.1 million
Total: $13.8 million

 

#46 Will Venable (OF)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
32 390 9.5 % 24.1 % .244 .320 .350 .296 87 -1.4 0.4 1.2

Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $6 million
Total: $12 million

Average Years: 1.9
Average AAV: $6.7 million
Total: $13.0 million

 

#47 Chris Young (OF)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
31 356 8.4 % 20.5 % .252 .320 .453 .332 109 3.6 -4.3 1.2

Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $6 million
Total: $12 million

Average Years: 1.9
Average AAV: $6.6 million
Total: $12.3 million

 

#48 John Jaso (C/DH)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
31 216 13.0 % 18.1 % .286 .380 .459 .364 136 4.4 -5.3 0.7

Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $6 million
Total: $12 million

Average Years: 1.8
Average AAV: $5.9 million
Total: $10.9 million

 

#49 Dioner Navarro (C)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
31 192 8.9 % 15.1 % .246 .307 .374 .296 84 -5.1 3.6 0.5

Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $6 million
Total: $12 million

Average Years: 1.8
Average AAV: $6.1 million
Total: $10.9 million

 

#50 Alejandro De Aza (OF)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
31 365 8.5 % 23.0 % .262 .333 .422 .326 104 4.5 -4.9 1.2

Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $6 million
Total: $12 million

Average Years: 1.7
Average AAV: $6.1 million
Total: $10.2 million

 

#51 Rajai Davis (OF)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
34 370 5.9 % 20.5 % .258 .306 .440 .320 101 2.1 2.5 1.8

Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $6 million
Total: $12 million

Average Years: 1.6
Average AAV: $5.9 million
Total: $9.4 million

 

#52 Mark Buehrle (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
36 198.2 4.12 1.49 45.9 % 3.81 4.26 4.46 2.3 2.1

Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $10 million
Total: $10 million

Average Years: 1.4
Average AAV: $10.8 million
Total: $14.7 million

This offseason, Mark Buehrle will either retire or not retire. Which one, though?
Retire: 58%. Not Retire: 42%.

 

#53 Bartolo Colon (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
42 194.2 6.29 1.11 42.3 % 4.16 3.84 3.94 1.2 2.5

Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $10 million
Total: $10 million

Average Years: 1.3
Average AAV: $9.8 million
Total: $13.1 million

This offseason, Bartolo Colon will either retire or not retire. Which one, though?
Not Retire: 83%. Retire: 17%

 

#54 Tony Sipp (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
31 54.1 10.27 2.48 38.8 % 1.99 2.93 3.34 1.7 1.0

Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $5 million
Total: $10 million

Average Years: 2.0
Average AAV: $4.9 million
Total: $9.9 million

 

#55 J.P. Howell (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
32 44.0 7.98 2.86 60.3 % 1.43 3.34 3.53 1.5 0.3

Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $5 million
Total: $10 million

Average Years: 1.8
Average AAV: $4.9 million
Total: $8.8 million

 

#56 Tommy Hunter (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
28 60.1 7.01 2.09 44.9 % 4.18 3.83 3.89 0.2 0.3

Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $5 million
Total: $10 million

Average Years: 1.9
Average AAV: $4.7 million
Total: $8.8 million

 

#57 Bud Norris (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
30 83.0 7.70 3.36 43.4 % 6.72 5.04 4.29 -1.7 0.0

Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $6 million
Total: $9 million

Average Years: 1.7
Average AAV: $6.4 million
Total: $10.6 million

Will Norris make the majority of his 2016 appearances in a starting or relief capacity?
Starting: 60%. Relief: 40%.

 

#58 Chase Utley (2B)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
36 423 7.6 % 15.1 % .212 .286 .343 .274 71 -13.0 -0.3 0.0

Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $8 million
Total: $8 million

Average Years: 1.4
Average AAV: $7.5 million
Total: $10.2 million

The Dodgers appear to hold an $11.0M option ($2.0M buyout) on Utley’s 2016 season. Will they exercise it?
No: 80%. Yes: 20%.

 

#59 Antonio Bastardo (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
29 57.1 10.05 4.08 31.0 % 2.98 3.33 4.27 0.8 0.6

Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $4 million
Total: $8 million

Average Years: 2.0
Average AAV: $4.6 million
Total: $9.4 million

 

#60 Shawn Kelley (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
31 51.1 11.05 2.63 42.7 % 2.45 2.57 2.91 0.6 1.0

Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $4 million
Total: $8 million

Average Years: 2.0
Average AAV: $4.5 million
Total: $9.0 million

 

#61 Jimmy Rollins (SS)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
36 563 7.8 % 15.3 % .224 .285 .358 .283 80 -15.2 -0.3 0.2

Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $8 million
Total: $8 million

Average Years: 1.2
Average AAV: $7.4 million
Total: $8.8 million

Rather than playing at all, do you think Rollins will retire this offseason?
No: 67%. Yes: 33%.

 

#62 Mark Lowe (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
32 55.0 9.98 1.96 40.3 % 1.96 2.57 2.83 1.6 1.2

Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $4 million
Total: $8 million

Average Years: 1.7
Average AAV: $4.4 million
Total: $7.3 million

 

#63 Justin Morneau (1B)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
34 182 7.1 % 13.7 % .310 .363 .458 .353 107 2.4 -3.7 0.5

Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $7 million
Total: $7 million

Average Years: 1.5
Average AAV: $7.3 million
Total: $10.7 million

 

#64 Alfredo Simon (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
34 187.0 5.63 3.27 43.6 % 5.05 4.77 4.78 0.4 1.0

Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $7 million
Total: $7 million

Average Years: 1.5
Average AAV: $6.9 million
Total: $10.6 million

 

#65 Marlon Byrd (OF)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
37 544 5.3 % 26.7 % .247 .290 .453 .317 100 0.3 -7.8 1.0

Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $7 million
Total: $7 million

Average Years: 1.4
Average AAV: $7.2 million
Total: $9.8 million

The Giants hold a $8.0M option on Byrd’s contract. Will they exercise it?
No: 59%. Yes: 41%.

 

#66 Shane Victorino (OF)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
34 204 7.8 % 15.7 % .230 .308 .292 .271 68 -5.6 -0.9 0.0

Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $7 million
Total: $7 million

Average Years: 1.3
Average AAV: $6.7 million
Total: $8.9 million

 

#67 Rich Hill (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
35 29.0 11.17 1.55 48.4 % 1.55 2.27 2.50 1.6 1.1

Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $6 million
Total: $6 million

Average Years: 1.5
Average AAV: $6.5 million
Total: $9.9 million

Given the paucity of information regarding Hill but also the quality of his late-season run, his is the most compelling/least predictable free-agent case of the offseason.
True: 53%. False: 47%.

 

#68 Tim Lincecum (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
31 76.1 7.07 4.48 44.3 % 4.13 4.29 4.64 0.4 0.3

Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $6 million
Total: $6 million

Average Years: 1.4
Average AAV: $7.0 million
Total: $9.9 million

Will Lincecum, who’s returning from season-ending surgery on his hip labrum, re-sign with the San Francisco?
Yes: 61%. No: 39%.

 

#69 Chris Young (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
36 123.1 6.06 3.14 25.5 % 3.06 4.52 5.33 3.0 0.9

Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $6 million
Total: $6 million

Average Years: 1.3
Average AAV: $5.9 million
Total: $7.9 million

 

#70 Alex Rios (OF)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
34 411 3.6 % 16.3 % .255 .287 .353 .279 72 -11.8 -0.2 0.2

Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $6 million
Total: $6 million

Average Years: 1.2
Average AAV: $6.2 million
Total: $7.7 million

 

#71 Trevor Cahill (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
27 43.1 7.48 3.32 63.1 % 5.40 3.92 3.50 -0.3 0.1

Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $5 million
Total: $5 million

Average Years: 1.6
Average AAV: $5.2 million
Total: $8.4 million

The Cubs hold a $13.0M option on Cahill’s contract ($0.3M buyout). Will they exercise it?
No: 100%. Yes: 0%.

 

#72 Ryan Madson (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
34 63.1 8.24 1.99 55.0 % 2.13 3.09 3.32 1.9 0.9

Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $5 million
Total: $5 million

Average Years: 1.5
Average AAV: $5.5 million
Total: $8.1 million

 

#73 Jonathan Broxton (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
31 60.1 9.40 3.28 52.8 % 4.62 3.65 3.24 -0.2 0.3

Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $4 million
Total: $4 million

Average Years: 1.5
Average AAV: $4.5 million
Total: $6.6 million

Broxton’s contract features a mutual option for $9.0M in 2016 ($2.0M buyout). Will Broxton exercise his half of the deal? 
Yes: 94%. No: 6%.

Will the Cardinals exercise theirs?
No: 97%. Yes: 3%. 

 

#74 David Murphy (OF)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
33 391 5.1 % 12.5 % .283 .318 .421 .318 103 -0.1 -9.8 0.3

Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $4 million
Total: $4 million

Average Years: 1.4
Average AAV: $4.6 million
Total: $6.4 million

The Angels hold a $7.0M option on Murphy’s contract ($0.5M buyout). Will they exercise it?
No: 85%. Yes: 15%.

Murphy has averaged precisely 0.0 WAR over the last three seasons. Would you consider him the “quintessential replacement-level player”?
Yes: 55%. No: 45%.

 

#75 Geovany Soto (C)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
32 210 10.0 % 30.0 % .219 .301 .406 .311 94 -1.2 4.9 1.1

Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $4 million
Total: $4 million

Average Years: 1.4
Average AAV: $4.4 million
Total: $6.3 million

 

#76 Matt Joyce (OF)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
30 284 10.6 % 23.6 % .174 .272 .291 .255 62 -14.5 -7.8 -1.4

Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $4 million
Total: $4 million

Average Years: 1.2
Average AAV: $4.2 million
Total: $5.3 million

 

#77 Brandon Morrow (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
30 33.0 6.27 1.91 47.4 % 2.73 3.56 3.72 0.9 0.5

Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $4 million
Total: $4 million

Average Years: 1.3
Average AAV: $4.2 million
Total: $5.3 million

Morrow failed to pitch even 55 innings for the third consecutive year. Will the majority of his 2016 appearances be recorded in a starting or relief capacity? 
Relief: 69%. Starting: 31%.

 

#78 Jeremy Guthrie (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
36 148.1 5.10 2.67 34.4 % 5.95 5.62 5.11 -1.0 -0.9

Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $4 million
Total: $4 million

Average Years: 1.2 
Average AAV: $4.3 million
Total: $5.0 million

Guthrie’s contract features a $10M mutual option (with $3.2M buyout) for 2016. Will he exercise his portion of that option? 
Yes: 95%. No: 5%. 

Will the Royals exercise their portion? 
No: 92%. Yes: 8%.

 

#79 Stephen Drew (SS)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
32 428 8.6 % 16.6 % .201 .271 .381 .284 76 -14.0 1.5 0.2

Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $4 million
Total: $4 million

Average Years: 1.2
Average AAV: $4.2 million
Total: $5.0 million

 

#80 Joe Blanton (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
34 76.0 9.36 1.89 48.6 % 2.84 2.92 3.01 1.2 1.1

Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $4 million
Total: $4 million

Average Years: 1.2
Average AAV: $3.7 million
Total: $4.5 million

 

#81 Kelly Johnson (2B)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
33 335 6.9 % 24.2 % .265 .314 .435 .323 107 1.9 -9.9 0.3

Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $3 million
Total: $3 million

Average Years: 1.2
Average AAV: $3.3 million
Total: $4.1 million

 

#82 Kyle Kendrick (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
30 142.1 5.06 2.85 38.8 % 6.32 6.12 5.09 -0.5 -1.0

Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $3 million
Total: $3 million

Average Years: 1.1
Average AAV: $3.3 million
Total: $3.8 million

If there had been an option above for “minor league deal,” would you have selected that instead? 
Yes: 61%. No: 39%.

We hoped you liked reading FanGraphs Crowd: The Top 82 Free Agents by Carson Cistulli!

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Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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TKDC
Guest
TKDC

I think the author is Juan Uribe’s agent, or else I have to wonder why a guy is listed as a “3B/SS” when he’s played 5 games at short since 2010.

Opie Curious
Guest
Opie Curious

Alex Gordon (3B/OF) is a similar grace note. In 2011 he played at first base in seven games. Otherwise, he has played only left field since 2010 (and even then, only eleven corner infield games). And his early career at third was kind of a disaster, so I don’t think anyone’s going to be jumping at the chance to move him back there.