But I’ll disagree with the “while not totally useless, may not provide that much information at all”. It provides a good deal of information, if you don’t use the 2009-2011 data. But, if you use the 2009-2011 data, then, right, it won’t provide that much information for a single player.

]]>It’s not as if we can look to the longrun and wait for the mean to occur. Flip a fair coin 10,000 times and we’ll see pretty close to a 50-50 split, but baseball players only stay at a certain talent level for so long. Players will generally improve to their peak, sit there for a few seasons and decline. With such few trials (using a season as a trial here) there seems to be so much uncertainty.

For a group of players, or even the whole league, there is more value. Assuming the population is normal, you’ll have your overperformers, and underperformers and they’ll cancel each other out roughly. And surely, many players will perform right at their mean projections. I’m sure there is value in that, but that holds less interest for me.

Are the projections for a single player distributed normally? Could it be different for different statistics? Is it possible that there are other distributions that more accurately capture these numbers?

I suppose there’s too much variation just due to the human element that we can only do so much. But, man, if only there was some way to account for seasons that are huge statistical outliers. Think Brady Anderson, or even Jacoby Ellsbury last year…..

]]>Marcel 11 Prediction, 11 Actual PA, 08-10 PA Average, Player Name

634 721 719.6 Ichiro

629 692 709 Fielder

641 607 707.6 Jeter

626 716 705.6 Markakis

627 684 701.3 Teixeira

614 715 691.3 Gonzalez, A.

613 629 685.3 Braun

620 651 680.3 Pujols

597 447 674.6 Wright

580 644 674.3 Howard

608 343 673.6 Tejada, M.

618 689 673 Young, M.

600 585 672.3 Abreu, B.

592 688 672.3 Cabrera, M.

615 681 668 Cano

601 689 664 Kemp

588 483 659.3 Theriot

539 477 658.3 Cabrera, O.

593 586 656.3 Victorino

604 516 656 Holliday

Marcel Ave: 605.1 PA

Group Ave: 613 PA

13 of the top 20 were above the Predicted Average.

If we presume they got 680 PA in those two years, that’s 340 + 68 + 200 = 608 PA. Someone can go through the actual Marcel forecasts for those 20 hitters, but it’ll be close to 608.

Therefore, a pretty solid match to the actual 612.

Does this satisfy the non-believers?

]]>2011 average: 612 PA

Unsurprising.

]]>But, if you had to bet the over/under on EVERY forecast?

]]>1. Check your averages, because you can’t have “.1” and “.2”, if you are dividing integers by 3. These are not innings, but PA!

2. Show the Marcel forecast for each player.

http://tangotiger.net/marcel/

You can get the 2011 data there.

3. Show the group average… then be impressed.

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