Game Two Was Objectively, Historically Crazy

In terms of significant, game-changing moments, no World Series game in history compares to Wednesday night’s epic between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Houston Astros. In the sixth inning, Corey Seager hit a two-run homer off of Justin Verlander to break a 1-1 tie. In the top of the ninth, Marwin Gonzalez hit a solo shot to tie the game 3-3. In the 10th, Jose Altuve broke the tie with a solo shot. In the bottom half of that same inning, Enrique Hernandez’s RBI single tied the game, and then in the top of the 11th, George Springer hit a two-run homer that would put the Astros up for good. Each of those five plays increased the scoring club’s chances victory by 25% according to Win Probability Added. That’s never happened before in a World Series game.

Since 2002, only one in three games have produced plays with at least one play with a WPA of .25 or greater. To put that in greater context, consider: there have been only 18 plays total this posteason that produced a WPA of .25 or greater.  Here they are, in order of impact on win probability:

Biggest Plays of 2017 Playoffs by WPA
GameDate Inning Outs PlayDesc HomeTeam AwayTeam WPA
10/25/2017 10 2 Enrique Hernandez singled to right (Grounder). Logan Forsythe scored. Enrique Hernandez advanced to 2B. Dodgers Astros .468
10/15/2017 9 2 Justin Turner homered (Fly). Yasiel Puig scored. Chris Taylor scored. Dodgers Cubs .394
10/7/2017 8 1 Bryce Harper homered (Fly). Victor Robles scored. Nationals Cubs .388
10/14/2017 9 1 Carlos Correa doubled to right (Fliner (Liner)). Jose Altuve scored. Astros Yankees .369
10/25/2017 9 0 Marwin Gonzalez homered (Fliner (Fly)). Dodgers Astros .350
10/25/2017 10 0 Jose Altuve homered (Fliner (Fly)). Dodgers Astros .350
10/24/2017 6 2 Justin Turner homered (Fly). Chris Taylor scored. Dodgers Astros .306
10/25/2017 6 2 Corey Seager homered (Fly). Chris Taylor scored. Dodgers Astros .306
10/7/2017 8 1 Ryan Zimmerman homered (Fly). Anthony Rendon scored. Daniel Murphy scored. Nationals Cubs .300
10/6/2017 8 0 Jay Bruce homered (Fly). Indians Yankees .298
10/6/2017 3 2 Aaron Hicks homered (Fliner (Fly)). Starlin Castro scored. Gregory Bird scored. Indians Yankees .278
10/12/2017 5 2 Addison Russell doubled to left (Grounder). Willson Contreras scored. Ben Zobrist scored. Nationals Cubs .271
10/25/2017 11 0 George Springer homered (Fliner (Fly)). Cameron Maybin scored. Dodgers Astros .261
10/9/2017 8 3 Anthony Rizzo singled to center (Fliner (Fly)). Leonys Martin scored. Anthony Rizzo out. Cubs Nationals .259
10/16/2017 2 2 Todd Frazier homered (Fliner (Fly)). Starlin Castro scored. Aaron Hicks scored. Yankees Astros .258
10/9/2017 8 2 Josh Reddick singled to left (Grounder). Cameron Maybin scored. George Springer advanced to 3B. Red Sox Astros .253
10/9/2017 5 1 Andrew Benintendi homered (Fly). Xander Bogaerts scored. Red Sox Astros .253
10/6/2017 6 2 Francisco Lindor homered (Fliner (Fly)). Carlos Santana scored. Yan Gomes scored. Lonnie Chisenhall scored. Indians Yankees .251

Of the eight biggest plays in the postseason this year, four occurred in Game 2. Hernandez’s single in a losing effort produced the highest WPA of any play in this postseason.

Since 2002, only five plays in the World Series have been more significant:

Biggest Plays of the Playoffs Since 2002 by WPA
GameDate Inning Outs PlayDesc Home-Away Score After (Home-Away) WPA
10/19/2009 9 2 Jimmy Rollins doubled to right (Fliner (Liner)). Eric Bruntlett scored. Carlos Ruiz scored. Phillies-Dodgers 5-4 .827
10/17/2005 9 2 Albert Pujols homered (Fly). David Eckstein scored. Jim Edmonds scored. Astros-Cardinals 4-5 .734
10/3/2003 11 2 Ivan Rodriguez singled to right (Liner). Alex Gonzalez scored. Juan Pierre scored. Luis Castillo advanced to 2B. Marlins-Giants 4-3 .734
10/23/2005 7 2 Paul Konerko homered (Fly). Juan Uribe scored. Tadahito Iguchi scored. Jermaine Dye scored. White Sox-Astros 6-4 .578
10/11/2009 9 2 Vladimir Guerrero singled to center (Fliner (Liner)). Chone Figgins scored. Bobby Abreu scored. Torii Hunter advanced to 2B. Red Sox-Angels 6-7 .570
10/10/2010 8 1 Eric Hinske homered (Fliner (Fly)). Alex Gonzalez scored. Braves-Giants 2-1 .553
10/10/2016 8 1 Conor Gillaspie tripled to right (Fliner (Fly)). Brandon Belt scored. Buster Posey scored. Giants-Cubs 4-3 .551
10/27/2011 9 2 David Freese tripled to right (Fliner (Fly)). Albert Pujols scored. Lance Berkman scored. Cardinals-Rangers 7-7 .538
10/5/2003 8 2 David Ortiz doubled to right (Liner). Nomar Garciaparra scored. Manny Ramirez scored. Red Sox-Athletics 5-4 .525
10/3/2014 8 1 Delmon Young doubled to left (Liner). Nelson Cruz scored. Steve Pearce scored. J.J. Hardy scored. Orioles-Tigers 7-6 .516
10/6/2004 12 1 Alex Rodriguez hit a ground rule double (Fly). Miguel Cairo scored. Derek Jeter advanced to 3B. Yankees-Twins 6-6 .503
10/3/2014 7 2 Matt Carpenter doubled to right (Fliner (Fly)). Yadier Molina scored. Matt Adams scored. Jon Jay scored. Dodgers-Cardinals 6-7 .502
10/9/2005 9 2 Brad Ausmus homered (Fly). Astros-Braves 6-6 .488
10/7/2003 9 2 Sammy Sosa homered (Fly). Kenny Lofton scored. Cubs-Marlins 8-8 .487
10/13/2012 9 2 Raul Ibanez homered (Fly). Mark Teixeira scored. Yankees-Tigers 4-4 .487
10/7/2012 8 2 Tyler Moore singled to right (Fliner (Liner)). Michael Morse scored. Ian Desmond scored. Tyler Moore advanced to 2B. Cardinals-Nationals 2-3 .474
10/27/2011 10 2 Lance Berkman singled to center (Fliner (Liner)). Jon Jay scored. Albert Pujols advanced to 3B. Cardinals-Rangers 9-9 .471
10/27/2015 9 1 Alex Gordon homered (Fly). Royals-Mets 4-4 .469
10/7/2013 9 2 Jose Lobaton homered (Fly). Rays-Red Sox 5-4 .468
10/25/2017 10 2 Enrique Hernandez singled to right (Grounder). Logan Forsythe scored. Enrique Hernandez advanced to 2B. Dodgers-Astros 5-5 .468
Orange=World Series

As illustrated by this table, 19 plays have recorded a greater swing than Hernandez’ single in a postseason game. Notably, all of those in the World Series were produced by the team that ultimately won the game. Hernandez, of course, was on the losing side.

Combining the FanGraphs database with Baseball-Reference’s Play-Index, I went back through every World Series game since 1903. I found only three games in which a batter got a hit with a WPA greater than Hernandez’ own and yet whose team went on to lose the game.

  • In 1972, Bobby Tolan of the Cincinnati Reds hit a two-run double off of the relieving Vida Blue to put the Reds ahead of the Oakland A’s 2-1 in the top of the eighth inning. The A’s came back in the bottom of the ninth to score two runs to win the game and take a 3-1 series lead before winning in seven games.
  • In 1964, Tom Tresh came to the plate down 2-0 against Bob Gibson with two outs in the bottom of the ninth with Mickey Mantle having reached on an error. He hit a game-tying home run, but Tim McCarver hit a three-run homer in the 10th and Gibson close out the game in the bottom half of the inning. The Cardinals took a 3-2 series lead and won in seven games.
  • In 1924, with one out in the bottom of the ninth, Washington’s Roger Peckinpaugh hit an RBI double that tied the game at two runs apiece against the New York Giants. In the top of the 12th inning, New York’s Walter Johnson, who had pitched the entire game, gave up hits to Ross Youngs and High Pockets Kelly. New York won that Game 1, but Washington took the series in seven games. Thanks in part to Frankie Frisch’s efforts on the Veteran’s Committee, 10 players who participated in that series eventually made the Hall of Fame.

On average, there have been 2.4 plays with a WPA over .25 per World Series. Allow me to repeat: that’s not per game, but per series. Wednesday night’s game alone more than doubled that average. Indeed, only one other playoff contest in history has, like Game 2, featured as many as five significant plays. Among all playoff games searched through the Baseball-Reference Play-Index (based on a hit search, so big walks, hit-by-pitches, and errors might be missing), the only other game with five big swings was Game 2 of the 1985 ALCS between the Kansas City Royals and the Toronto Blue Jays. That game featured runs in the bottom of the eighth, the top of the ninth, and both halves of the 10th, as the Blue Jays took a 2-0 series lead before succumbing to the eventual champs in seven games.

Since 2002, there have been only five games featuring at least four hits with a WPA greater than .25. Before Wednesday, only one of those games occurred in the World Series. It shouldn’t be too hard to guess which game that was.

Game 6 of the 2011 World Series had four significant plays above .25, which is one short of Wednesday night’s game. As the graph here indicates, however, there were a bunch of smaller back and forths throughout the entire game.

Compare that to the Game 2 graph:

Wednesday night’s game meandered along a bit due to good pitching performances from both clubs. That’s not to suggest that good pitching performances are undesirable, of course, just to say that they tend to facilitate fewer swings in win probability. The minor back-and-forths in the Cardinals-Rangers matchup, meanwhile, tended to be a bit bigger than the Dodgers and Astros.

Here are the top plays by WPA in each of the two games, pitted head to head:

2011 Game 6 vs. 2017 Game 2
Game 6, 2011 Game 2, 2017
Play LI WPA WPA LI Play
David Freese tripled to right (Fliner (Fly)). Albert Pujols scored. Lance Berkman scored. 3.33 .538 .468 4.9 Enrique Hernandez singled to right (Grounder). Logan Forsythe scored. Enrique Hernandez advanced to 2B.
Lance Berkman singled to center (Fliner (Liner)). Jon Jay scored. Albert Pujols advanced to 3B. 6.42 .471 .350 2.79 Marwin Gonzalez homered (Fliner (Fly)).
Josh Hamilton homered (Fly). Elvis Andrus scored. 2.95 .428 .350 2.24 Jose Altuve homered (Fliner (Fly)).
David Freese homered (Fly). 2.19 .376 .306 1.26 Corey Seager homered (Fly). Chris Taylor scored.
Lance Berkman homered (Fly). Skip Schumaker scored. 0.84 .217 .261 2.71 George Springer homered (Fliner (Fly)). Cameron Maybin scored.
Adrian Beltre homered (Fliner (Fly)). 1.53 .213 .174 0.62 Joc Pederson homered (Fly).
Michael Young doubled to left (Fliner (Liner)). Josh Hamilton scored. 2.02 .172 .103 1.68 Yasiel Puig homered (Fliner (Fly)).
Yadier Molina walked. Lance Berkman scored. Matt Holliday advanced to 3B. David Freese advanced to 2B. 4.75 .162 .092 3.47 Cameron Maybin advanced on a stolen base to 2B.
Jon Jay singled to left (Fliner (Fly)). Daniel Descalso advanced to 2B. 3.31 .140 .089 1.37 Alex Bregman hit a ground rule double (Fliner (Liner)).
Nelson Cruz homered (Fly). 0.9 .125 .085 0.58 Carlos Correa homered (Fliner (Fly)).
Ian Kinsler hit a ground rule double (Fliner (Liner)). Craig Gentry scored. 1.26 .117 .081 2.24 Cameron Maybin singled to center (Liner).
David Freese walked. Lance Berkman advanced to 3B. Matt Holliday advanced to 2B. 3.61 .109 .080 2.23 Alex Bregman singled to left (Fliner (Liner)). Josh Reddick scored. George Springer advanced to 2B.
Elvis Andrus singled to left (Fliner (Liner)). Ian Kinsler advanced to 3B. 1.52 .096 .080 2.01 Carlos Correa singled to center (Grounder). Alex Bregman scored.
Mike Napoli singled to right (Liner). Nelson Cruz scored. 1.59 .095 .068 1.24 George Springer doubled to left (Grounder).
Josh Hamilton singled to right (Grounder). Ian Kinsler scored. Elvis Andrus advanced to 3B. 1.76 .091 .059 1.29 Marwin Gonzalez walked.
Daniel Descalso singled to right (Liner). 1.64 .086 .056 1.44 George Springer singled to left (Liner). Josh Reddick advanced to 3B.
Matt Holliday walked. Lance Berkman advanced to 2B. 2.1 .079 .053 1.34 Carlos Correa singled to left (Liner).
Nelson Cruz reached on error to left (Fly). Nelson Cruz advanced to 2B. Error by Matt Holliday. 1.08 .079 .050 1.2 Chris Taylor walked.
Ian Kinsler singled to center (Grounder). Derek Holland scored. Ian Kinsler advanced to 2B. 0.78 .077 .048 1.67 Logan Forsythe walked.
Lance Berkman walked. 2.4 .075 .044 3.31 Logan Forsythe advanced on a wild pitch to 2B.

We know that Game 2 featured (by our somewhat arbitrary measure) five “big” plays. As the table here illustrates, however, Game 6 from the 2011 Series was responsible for a greater share of notable plays outside those top five. Game 6 did go longer, which is one reason it might have produced more in the way of quantity. But looking at leverage index gives us a little more insight into not only what did happen, but what might have happened.

In Game 6 back in 2011, 32 of the game’s 109 plays (29.3%) featured a leverage index above 2.0, and 11 plays (10.1%) above 4.0. On Wednesday, 21 of 95 plays (22.1%) had a LI above 2.0, and only Enrique Hernandez’s at-bat was above 4.0.

Wednesday night’s Game 2 was certainly one of the wilder World Series contests in history. In addition to the two games highlighted here, only two other World Series games have featured four hits with a .25 WPA or greater: the Oakland-Cincinnati matchup from 1972 mentioned above and Game 4 of the 1957 World Series between Milwaukee and New York. The latter series featured inner-circle Hall of Famers Hank Aaron, Yogi Berra, Mickey Mantle, Eddie Mathews, and Warren Spahn, as well as Hall of Famers Whitey Ford, Red Schoendienst, and Enos Slaughter.

There might not be that much of a point in debating between the two games. Game 6 in 2011 was a great game. Wednesday’s Game 2 was also great. It would be fair to just leave it at that, although this post proves I couldn’t so I wouldn’t blame anybody else who couldn’t leave it alone, either.

We hoped you liked reading Game Two Was Objectively, Historically Crazy by Craig Edwards!

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Craig Edwards can be found on twitter @craigjedwards.

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bowie
Member
Member
bowie

No argument that it was objectively speaking a crazy game. The sheer improbability of what happened makes it so. And it will go down in history for good reason.
However, I’m wondering if anyone else started to feel like that game was veering into farce.
From the tone of the articles I’ve been reading, most people loved it. But after Culberson’s HR I felt like I was watching some kind of circus show, rather than a contest of the two best baseball teams.

Dane Roberns
Member
Dane Roberns

It was a home run, a baseball thing, that made you think you were watching a circus show? It wasn’t Chris Taylor’s hat magic juggling act or Laz Diaz’s umpiring acrobatics that made you start to feel that way?

Who doesn’t love a circus anyway? Why do you hate fun?

bowie
Member
Member
bowie

haha — so arch and clever

It wasn’t one home run. It was the 6th home run in a 3-inning span.

But ok, I hear you. I knew my opinion was unpopular. Thought I’d run that up the flag pole and see if anyone else agrees. I’m ready for my thumbs-down barrage…

Darryl
Member

found the puppy kicker