How Game Seven Saved the 2014 World Series

The 2014 World Series was an enjoyable contest. Not only did the Royals provide a fresh face and a different type of team than we’ve generally seen in the Fall Classic, but Madison Bumgarner gave us a performance for the ages. And, for the first time since the two Wild Card games, we actually got a winner-take-all contest; the first two rounds of the 2014 playoffs provided little in the way of drama about the outcomes of the series, as the winners combined for a 20-3 record in the division and league championship series. But, while the World Series gave us that elusive Game Seven, we also have to acknowledge that series had one of the lowest totals of in-game drama of any World Series in history.

One of the neat things about Leverage Index, besides giving a numerical representation of important situations, is that we can look at the average leverage index for an entire game and get a feel for how dramatic the game was as it went on. In a close contest where the lead is regularly changing, the average leverage index can push near two, as it did in Game Two of the NLCS; the aLI for that game was 1.94, meaning that each play carried something close to double the weight that it would have had in an average game. The 18 inning contest between the Giants and Nationals had an aLI of 1.81, so that was basically two full baseball games worth of drama similar to what you’d find protecting a ninth inning lead.

The World Series didn’t have any games like that. In fact, until the final game, it didn’t include a contest where the aLI was even over 1.0. The first six games were mostly blowouts, with the exception of game three, the one in which the Royals took a 1-0 lead in the first inning, built it up to 3-0, and then held on to win 3-2. Besides that we, had 7-1, 7-2, 11-4, 5-0, and 10-0 contests; the aLI of game six was a paltry 0.25, the third lowest number for a game in World Series history.

So, where does this series rank in terms of average leverage index for all of the games combined? Let’s take a look.

Year	aLI
1989	0.58
1968	0.63
1937	0.69
1960	0.72
2014	0.73
1977	0.74
1965	0.74
1903	0.76
1945	0.78

Even with a competitive and tension-filled final game, the aLI for this World Series was the fifth lowest in history; without that game, it would have been the third lowest.

1989, of course, is mostly remembered as the “Earthquake Series”, as a quake prior to game three forced a significant delay, and the World Series got stretched out over two weeks. The A’s won all four games, with the closest being a 9-6 victory in the Game Four finale. The highest aLI for any of the four games was .902, with the other three all falling at .50 or under. Not only did the A’s sweep the Giants, but they did so in about as boring a way as one can complete a sweep.

1968 was a bit more similar to 2014, as it went the full seven games, but included contests like a 13-1 drubbing in Game Six that was 12-0 by the end of the third inning. Like this year, though the final game provided some intrigue, as it was scoreless into the seventh inning before the Tigers pulled away and eventually won 4-1.

But besides that, nearly every other World Series in baseball history has provided as much or in-game drama as the 2014 version, and before the finale, those would have been the only two match-ups to produce a lower aLI than this year’s World Series. Thankfully, though, we got very good final game, and Madison Bumgarner’s performance single-handedly cemented this series place in history.

If you’re wondering about the flip side of things, here are the 10 most competitive World Series match-ups by aLI.

Year	aLI
2005	1.49
1991	1.41
1980	1.38
1924	1.37
1941	1.35
1915	1.33
1995	1.30
1992	1.30
1975	1.29

Yep, the 2005 World Series that saw the White Sox sweep the Astros was the most competitive game set of contests in history. The White Sox won every game, but they won 5-3, 7-6 (9th inning walkoff), 7-5 (in 14 innings), and 1-0 in the finale. Like the early rounds of this year, the games themselves were terrific, even if the outcome seems lopsided based on the number of games won by each side.

This year provided a pretty stark contrast between two extremes; great games resulting in short series, and then mediocre games ending with a tense final contest. Either way, though, it was an enjoyable postseason.

*Thanks to the tremendously useful Play Index at Baseball-Reference for the data.*