Huff Returns to The Beanstalk

Three weeks ago, I wrote that the Giants needed to avoid overcompensating the free agents from their World Series team. Today, they re-signed Aubrey Huff for two years and $22 million (with a club option for a third year). Although the Contract Crowdsourcing series had Huff valued two years, $16 million, did the Giants do well in what (seems) to be an inflated market?

Huff’s recent career arc is a weird one. His win values over the last four years (starting with 2010): 5.7, -1.4, 4.0, and 0.7. In more generic labels, his last four seasons have represented those of an elite player, a below replacement level player, a star, and a below average player. All that volatility despite ridiculously consistent plate appearance numbers (668, 597, 661, and 603) is unheard of. A 5-4-3 weighing has Huff at three wins; factor in aging (among other variables) and he should be good for somewhere between two and three wins.

In a deflated market, one where a win costs four million or so, Huff playing to the lower end of that projected rate would not be worth an annual average salary of $11 million. In this market, though, where the cost of a win might be closer to five million, such an occurrence is plausible. Admittedly, the best part of the deal – speaking purely from a worst-case scenario perspective – is the relatively short length. (The option clause for a third year is a nice touch, too). The salary prevents it from being a failsafe deal, but for a free agent coming off a five-win season that’s a more worthwhile concession than too many years.

All and all, this seems like a reasonable contract for both parties. Huff gets some security and cash, but not enough of either to make Sabean appear hungover from the celebration.

We hoped you liked reading Huff Returns to The Beanstalk by R.J. Anderson!

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Austin
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Austin

Crowdsourcing actually had him at 2.2 years for $8.8 million per year, so you should probably say “two years, $18 million” instead of “two years, $16 million.” I’m a bit surprised that he signed for quite this much; I would have put him down for the Crowdsourced deal of $18 million, or perhaps $20 million considering the World Series victory.

yujrfgh
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yujrfgh

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