Cubs Sign Tyler Chatwood, Interesting Pitcher

The hot stove is flickering! There is actual news!

Chatwood was one of the more interesting free agents in this class. Mike Petriello made a case for why Chatwood could be this year’s Charlie Morton, a high-velocity guy with a high-spin curveball who just needs a change of scenery. He was always likely to sign with an analytically-inclined organization, and the Cubs certainly qualify.

Chatwood ranked 17th among our Top 50 free agents heading into the off-season, with projections that work out to roughly league-average pitching when he’s on the mound, with durability a legitimate question.

Contract Estimate
Type Years AAV Total
Dave Cameron 3 $10.0 M $30.0 M
Median Crowdsource 0.0 $0.0 M $0.0 M
Avg Crowdsource 0.0 $0.0 M $0.0 M
2018 Steamer Forecast
Age IP BB% K% GB% ERA FIP xFIP WAR RA9-WAR
28 128.0 10.4% 19.3% 53.4% 4.32 4.39 4.36 1.6 1.5

I projected he’d get $30 million over three years, but it sounds like he did a bit better than that.

At nearly $40 million, Chatwood is no huge bargain, but there are definitely things to like about having him as a back-end starter with upside. There’s also plenty of risk here, of course, and the fact that an upside play with a limited track record of success costs $40 million tells you that this is a good winter to be a free agent pitcher.

We hoped you liked reading Cubs Sign Tyler Chatwood, Interesting Pitcher by Dave Cameron!

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Being 27 and throwing 95 MPH probably moved this price higher, but still love this signing. Better than $70 million for Ian Kennedy.

sadtrombone
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sadtrombone

Most free agent signings are better than $70 million for Ian Kennedy.

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Update:

Better than Zimmerman, Chen, Leake, Kazmir, Kennedy, Pelfrey, Volquez, Hammel, T. Wood.

Basically, 3/4 of the multi year free agent pitching contracts the last two offseason have been objectively horrid.

Jay
Member
Jay

Seems like a weirdly arbitrary comparison to make. “Better than one of the worst free agent signings from 2 years ago” is damning with faint praise.