Win Probability Added Leaders Through the LCS

Recently, after the completion of the various divisional series, I compiled win probability added (WPA) for the current postseason. In this post, I’ve updated that data to include all three rounds of the postseason thus far through Game 6 of the ALCS. Since WPA is accrued, many of the players at the top will have a higher WPA because they’ve played more games.

Batters

Batter WPA Through LCS

Jose Bautista, by virtue of his ALDS Game 5 go-ahead home run and his game-tying home run in the final ALCS Game 6, leads all batters in WPA. Daniel Murphy, with his seven postseason home runs, comes in second. Murphy has three more home runs than Bautista, but Bautista’s occurred late in close games.

Pitchers

Pitcher WPA Through LCS

Previously Dallas Keuchel led all pitchers in WPA in the postseason, but unfortunately, he didn’t make it to the the ALCS. Jacob deGrom, Wade Davis and Jeurys Familia have passed him. As a starter, deGrom has pitched many low-scoring innings, while Davis and Familia came into the game in higher leverage situation and got more WPA by facing and retiring fewer batters.

Plays

2015 Top Batter Plays By WPA, Through LCS
Game Inning Play Description WPA
1 10-9 TEX at TOR 14 Hanser Alberto singled to center (Fliner (Liner)). Rougned Odor scored. Chris Gimenez advanced to 3B. Hanser Alberto advanced to 2B. .366
2 10-14 TEX at TOR 7 Jose Bautista homered (Fliner (Fly)). Ryan Goins scored. Josh Donaldson scored. .346
3 10-10 NYN at LAN 7 Adrian Gonzalez doubled to right (Liner). Chase Utley scored. Howie Kendrick scored. Adrian Gonzalez advanced to 3B. .327
4 10-23 TOR at KCA 8 Jose Bautista homered (Fliner (Fly)). Ben Revere scored. .326
5 10-12 LAN at NYN 2 Curtis Granderson doubled to center (Fliner (Fly)). Travis d’Arnaud scored. Wilmer Flores scored. Juan Lagares scored. .323
6 10-13 SLN at CHN 2 Javier Baez homered (Fliner (Fly)). Kyle Schwarber scored. Jason Hammel scored. .319
7 10-12 KCA at HOU 8 Kendrys Morales reached on fielder’s choice and error to shortstop (Grounder). Ben Zobrist scored on error. Lorenzo Cain scored on error. Eric Hosmer advanced to 3B on error. Error by Carlos Correa. .311
8 10-21 NYN at CHN 1 Lucas Duda homered (Fliner (Fly)). Curtis Granderson scored. Yoenis Cespedes scored. .272
9 10-12 SLN at CHN 5 Kris Bryant homered (Fliner (Fly)). Jorge Soler scored. .252
10 10-17 TOR at KCA 7 Mike Moustakas singled to right (Liner). Eric Hosmer scored. Mike Moustakas advanced to 2B. .237

The two LCS series were relatively uneventful compared to some of the drama and lead changes that occurred in the LDS round. Bautista’s game-tying home run Friday night had the highest WPA and that only ranks fourth this postseason behind three LDS plays.

2015 Top Pitcher Plays By WPA, Through LCS
Game Inning Pitcher Play Description WPA
1 10-23 TOR at KCA 9 Wade Davis Ben Revere struck out swinging. .246
2 10-23 TOR at KCA 9 Wade Davis Josh Donaldson grounded out to third (Grounder). .194
3 10-23 TOR at KCA 9 Wade Davis Dioner Navarro struck out swinging. .180
4 10-9 TEX at TOR 11 Aaron Loup Josh Hamilton flied out to center (Fliner (Fly)). .137
5 10-7 CHN at PIT 6 Jake Arrieta Starling Marte grounded into a double play to shortstop (Grounder). Andrew McCutchen out at second. .130
6 10-14 TEX at TOR 7 Cole Hamels Ben Revere reached on fielder’s choice to first (Grounder). Dalton Pompey out at home. Kevin Pillar advanced to 3B. Ryan Goins advanced to 2B. .128
7 10-9 HOU at KCA 9 Wade Davis Carlos Gomez picked off. .127
8 10-9 TEX at TOR 12 Shawn Tolleson Ryan Goins grounded out to second (Grounder). .127
9 10-12 KCA at HOU 8 Tony Sipp Mike Moustakas struck out swinging. .122
10 10-20 NYN at CHN 5 Clayton Richard Daniel Murphy grounded into a double play to third (Grounder). David Wright out at second. .115

The ALCS did provide three high-leverage, shut-down pitching plays, all of which have high WPA. These three plays occurred during the top of the 9th in Game 6 in Kansas City. Wade Davis, after putting two runners on with no outs, got three outs and prevented both runners from scoring. These three plays don’t contribute that much to his WPA totals earlier in the post, since Davis put the runners on and then got out of a situation of his own making.

We hoped you liked reading Win Probability Added Leaders Through the LCS by Sean Dolinar!

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I code a bunch of things here. I really need to update my blog about statistics at stats.seandolinar.com.

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Garyth
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Garyth

Joey Bats certainly made the most of his first postseason appearance. 1403 games of pent-up anger!