Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 10/20/17

October 20, 2017

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Sorry for the hiccup — forgot to set this up and schedule it for this morning yesterday, so everything is all screwed

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: I’ll give a minute for the queue to populate itself!

9:10	CamdenWarehouse: Marshawn Lynch was ejected and sat in the stands last night!

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: One of the peak moments of 2017 professional sports

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: For anyone who doesn’t know it already, this is allowed in baseball, per the official rules. If a player or coach gets ejected, that person is permitted to change into street clothes and watch the game from the stands, provided the person isn’t too close to the dugout

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Still waiting on the first baseball player to do it, but of course Lynch would be a pioneer

9:12	Guest: Is Eno dying?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Not any more than the rest of us

9:13	Guest: Morning Jeff, screw the Cubs I personally hope they lose for another 100 yrs

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: That seems mean-spirited

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Especially since you presumably won’t be around for at least the end of that stretch

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: But it’s yours to decide! Take from sports whatever you please!

9:14	Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Jeff! The Yankees beat the best pitching team possibly ever and might beat the maybe best hitting team of all-time…to how many games do they push the Dodgers and who wins?

9:15

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know exactly who would be favored going up against Kershaw/Darvish/Hill, with Jansen at the end, but as we’ve discussed so many times over, the Yankees’ pitching staff becomes a playoff strength. Either of the two possible WS matchups would be great but the series itself should go at least six

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: I say that knowing that there was no way to predict the Cubs would be clobbered in five. Baseball will get you

9:16	Scherzer? I hardly know her : You have just inherited a franchise. You get to pick any baseball executive to run your team. Money is no object. Who are you picking?

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know how you wouldn’t pick Epstein or Friedman

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: Depending on the franchise, maybe you lean Friedman, if it’s a smaller-market operation

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think there’s a ton separating those two from the next-best tier, but they’ve proven their worth several times over

9:18	Waltharius: What do you think of a recent surge of Josh Naylor in AFL? Will he end up being a trade chip or a player Padres will field in the future?

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: Naylor is 10-for-27 in the AFL. He just posted a full-season .761 OPS in the minors

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: The only thing he has going for him is he’s 20 years old. His performance record is bad

9:20	Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: You never mentioned anything about Josh Reddick drawing a base on a catcher’s interference! I thought for sure we’d get an article on our THIRD of this postseason.

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t want to overdo the catcher’s interference articles. I like it as one of my Twitter beats but we probably don’t need something on FanGraphs for every single instance in the playoffs

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: That being said, there have been 15 catcher’s interference calls in the history of the playoffs, according to Baseball Reference. Three of them this month alone

9:22	Nebkreb: Please tell whoever runs the High Heat Stats Twitter account (not the MLBNetwork show) to stop harping on Judge’s strikeouts. Use your Baseball Twitter power for good.

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: Let’s be real here: Judge has struck out 24 times in 49 postseason plate appearances. That’s pretty extraordinary

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: Nevertheless, he has an .847 OPS. He’s been more good than bad. And the strikeouts were only really out of control against the Indians

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: So the strikeouts don’t make Judge bad. But there’s no denying that his strikeouts are incredibly high

9:24	Reddick’s jilted ex: who would you rather see play the Dodgers in the WS and why?

9:24

Jeff Sullivan: I have zero rooting interest here. Or, I should say, my rooting interests balance out. I want Houston to win, because they’re a good story. I want the Yankees to win, so we can all have reason to go back to hating the Yankees. The Astros have what should be a super fun offense. The Yankees have hat should be a super fun bullpen

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: From a strictly on-field perspective, the Astros and Yankees are equally delightful, recent Houston hitting slump be damned

9:26

CamdenWarehouse: The other day when you said that Justin Verlander had lost nothing on his fastball. Has everything adjusted fastball speeds to be in line with how they are measured now or has everyone forgotten that the new way adds speed? It feels like we talked about a lot for two weeks in April, then everyone went back to comparing this year to last like nothing was different.

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: The Pitch Info velocity measurements are set to be consistent season to season

9:28

Jeff Sullivan: That is, the Baseball Info Solutions velocity measurements show a spike of about a half-tick this season, but Pitch Info retroactively boosted old velocities so that even comparisons can be made. They effectively “moved back” old measuring points, so that velocities are reported closer to the release point

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: That’s all a complicated jumble, but the simple point is: we have Pitch Info stuff for a decade, and it’s safe to compare the pitch speeds. And even when you use the other data going back to 2002, it’s not worthless. You can just mentally add about half a mile per hour or so

9:29	Guest: What baseball player would get ejected and go to the stands to watch?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: Adrian Beltre

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: The answer is Adrian Beltre

9:30	Scherzer? I hardly know her : Gut feeling. Where is Harper playing in 2019?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Yankees

9:30	Waltharius: Who will most likely be the trade candidate from Padres farm system when the time comes that they will FINALLY compete?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: How is anyone supposed to know that answer now?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: They’re years and years off. The trade-bait players might not even be in the system yet

9:31	LegallyEagle: For the World Series, no reason to save up for a next round. So should the Dodgers go with a 3-man rotation and put Wood into the bullpen?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Nah. You still don’t want to overtax your players. I think you just start Wood and think from the get-go that he might get only four or so innings

9:31	Scherzer? I hardly know her : Gut feeling. Who is Otani playing for in 2018?

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: Cubs. But I have no particularly good reason to say that, other than they could badly use him, so they’ll try as hard as they can

9:32	Blame: Hey Jeff, how much will the new QO be worth? Basically what a high second round pick is? (For those players eligible for that)

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: It’s something like $18 million

9:34	Oddball Herrera: With an average pitcher facing an average batter, what % of pitches outside of the zone would you guess are there on purpose, and what % would you guess are true misses?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: I’d say maybe 20-25% of pitches are intended to be balls

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Well, let me take that back. 0% of pitches are intended to be balls. But maybe 20-25% are intended to be out of the zone

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Pitchers, for the most part, try to pitch to the edges. They’re looking for borderline calls or borderline swings. Pitchers aren’t that accurate

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Just about no pitch is ever supposed to be an easy strike down the middle, and just about no pitch is ever supposed to be more than six or nine inches away from the zone

9:37	Michelle: Hi Jeff, how do you handle how much there is to read in this world but so little time to do so?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: The world is meant to be experienced, not read about

9:38	Colin: Not a big deal, but why did Morrow and Jansen pitch last night with a huge lead?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know. Maybe some kind of reward

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: Also, baseball managers are obsessed with going for the throat. Everyone on the Dodgers now gets several days to rest

9:40	Ted: Is there any particular strategy (or strategies) the Yankees should look to employ against Verlander tonight? He looked downright invincible last time out

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: Last night, the Dodgers came out very aggressive against Jose Quintana, knowing that he loves to strike early and get ahead

9:41

Jeff Sullivan: With Verlander, as you’d expect, he’s pretty fastball-heavy early in counts. He goes to the slider when he’s out ahead. He made terrific use of that slider earlier in the series. There’s not much for the Yankees to do to prepare, but they should at least think about going after more first-pitch fastballs

9:42	Lunar verLander: Apparently (as of a few minutes ago), Dusty Baker won’t be returning as Nats manager next year. Thoughts?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: I like Baker as the Nats’ manager, but it seems there was some mounting discord between himself and ownership. He wanted an extension in the middle of the year that ownership wouldn’t give. No manager likes to manage in a contract season as a possible lame duck

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: Look, Baker is 68. Lived a full life. Hasn’t won a World Series, but there are bigger things than that. I think he’s still a capable MLB skipper, but maybe Baker is just tired of the drama and the exhaustion. Seems like a candidate to become very happily and contentedly retired

9:45	E: what% of winning the world series is luck?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: A large percent

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Not so large a percent once you get there, but the path is fraught with obstacles

9:46	M: Hey Jeff! Remember when the dodgers traded Dee Gordon for Hernandez, Barnes, and, essentially, howie Kendrick? That was awesome.

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: Even back then, Barnes seemed like a very underrated something

9:47	Ben: Do you want to manage the Nats with Dusty gone?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: good heavens no

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: I can’t stand being around alphas

9:47	Joe: Who wins tonight?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: Astros

9:48	CamdenWarehouse: It’s OK to hope that the Cubs don’t win the WS again before the Orioles get one, right?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: It’s OK to root for whatever you want to root for, provided it’s not rooting for bodily harm

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: Sports are for you. They are provided for your entertainment. Be entertained however you like! Otherwise, what’s the point?

9:49	Fair line: This is silly but I will say it: as a Nats fan, I haven’t seen the NLCS since 2014. Just can’t bring myself to do it. This year was particularly….exquisite in its torture. That’s all I got. Go Dodgers

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: I can’t imagine wanting to watch the playoffs right after your own favorite team gets eliminated

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: I got completely sucked in to the Ottawa Senators’ playoff run last summer. No way in hell was I ever going to watch the Stanley Cup

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: (Ottawa lost one win short of the Stanley Cup)

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: (That was not clear before)

9:51	Bill W: Chances that in a maximum-length WS, Kershaw starts in 1, 4 and 7?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Somewhere between 0 and 1%

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: He’s going 1 and 5, with a possible 7 relief appearance if necessary

9:52	Austin Hedges: How much should I hit in the next 2~3 years to secure my tenure with the Padres?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: 90 wRC+

9:52	Josh R: All the talk about the Dodger depth in the off-season became a sort of joke. But man did it pay off. Kike!? Culberson!? Morrow?! Barnes?! What a team!

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: In fairness, Culberson was never considered quality depth, I don’t think

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: And Morrow had a 7.20 ERA in Triple-A this season somehow

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: But the general point is correct. The Dodgers have insane depth. And also insane star-level talent. The Dodgers are insanely good

9:53	Guest: Wouldn’t the Dodgers be the best pitching team this yr?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-indians-did-have-maybe-the-best-pi…

9:54

Charlie: My brother-in-law (Yankees fan) insists he knows that they will win the World Series and has since they won the ALDS (or maybe game 4 of the ALDS). He now claims that they have a better lineup, rotation, and bullpen than the Astros. When I point out that the Astros have had the best offense in the sport since 1931, he points me towards evidence consisting of five games. My question is, as a Mets fan, how do I deal with baseball/life?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Spend more of your life helping people

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Do that and you’ll naturally have a better perspective with regard to everything else

9:55	Andrew: are the yankees gunna re-sign both tanaka and cc to new deals?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: I think Sabathia is more likely. They’ll try with Tanaka, but some other team might go an extra year or two

9:56	Josh R: The Dodgers have only given up 41 hits in 8 games this post season. Yet of those 14! have been homers. I’m not sure how to wrap my mind around that. Have they been both dominant and unlucky?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: Feels like a bunch of those homers have been solo shots in games that are already lopsided. Like, I don’t even really care that Kershaw allowed a homer to Bryant last night

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: 5 walks, 53 strikeouts against the Cubs. Incredible

9:57	bjogc: With Headleys recent “hot streak” have DH’s finally outpaced NL pitchers this postseason? We have to be at peak playoff DH futility, right?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: Let’s see!

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: DH in the playoffs: .206/.265/.290

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: Pitchers in the playoffs: .098/.115/.137

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: Way to go, designated hitters! You did it!

9:59	Matt: Among Baez, Schwarber, Happ, and Almora , which guy makes the most sense to move to address roster holes? Please factor in trade value with optimal roster construction.

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: It’s Schwarber

9:59	guest: Thoughts on Tigers hiring Ron Gardenhire?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: Fun fact: Ron Gardenhire has been a manager or coach for 15 consecutive playoff losses!