Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 6/15/18

9:06

Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:06

Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:06

James: The Astros seem to have their offensive mojo back. How scared should the league be?

9:07

Jeff Sullivan: I was just looking at something yesterday

9:07

Jeff Sullivan: I calculated every team’s total negative WAR

9:07

Jeff Sullivan: The Astros are at -0.1 — just Jake Marisnick

9:07

Jeff Sullivan: Not that that’s a perfect encapsulation of everything, or even anything, but it’s absurd how good and deep and healthy they are

9:08

Jeff Sullivan: The Astros are the best team in baseball. They’re playing like it. They’re going to win that division by like ten games

9:08

kyle: is there a place that I can look up xBABIP?

9:08

Jeff Sullivan: Not via Statcast. It’s not included among the Baseball Savant dropdown menu options

9:09

Pio: Between his tremendous power and inability to make contact, where do you think Franchy’s bat ends up?

9:09

Jeff Sullivan: I know the Padres really like him, and they intend to give him a long leash

9:10

Jeff Sullivan: Part of that, though, has to do with his defense, which this season hasn’t been good at all. He’s very fast but very raw. Unpolished player in multiple areas

9:10

Jeff Sullivan: I think he ends up a low-lineup regular, but I doubt it ever all comes together at once

9:11

Jeff Sullivan: Not for more than a few games at a time

9:11

NYTT: Will the Braves be one of the five best teams in the NL at the end of the year?

9:11

Jeff Sullivan: In terms of record, or true talent?

9:12

Jeff Sullivan: In terms of record, they already have a leg up

9:12

Jeff Sullivan: I’m a little bit of a Braves skeptic, but at the same time, I have a feeling they could be the most likely destination for Machado. So obviously that would be a massive improvement

9:13

Scherzer’s Blue Eye: Given the Nationals’ soft contact and hard contact rates (5th and 7th worst in MLB), how much do you see their MLB-worst BABIP changing?

9:13

Jeff Sullivan: They’re about to have more Daniel Murphy and less Wilmer Difo, and more Adam Eaton and less Michael Taylor

9:14

Jeff Sullivan: They’re going to hit a lot. And while Harper’s BABIP is a terrible .213, his career mark is .315. No reason to believe he suddenly sucks

9:15

NYTT: Is Dansby Swanson good now? Average-ish bat and plus defense at shortstop looks good even though his BABIP is higher than you’d like

9:15

Jeff Sullivan: Defensively I think he’s playing over his head, and I don’t trust his current offensive profile much. I see him as more of an average everyday player

9:15

Jeff Sullivan: Career DRS of 0, and UZR of +0.8

9:16

Slurve: What’s the biggest reason for the Mariners’ success to this point?

9:16

Jeff Sullivan: Clutch performance

9:16

Jeff Sullivan: First among all teams in batting Clutch, second among all teams in pitching Clutch

9:17

Jeff Sullivan: We’ve seen this before from other teams. I recall that 2016 Rangers

9:18

Jeff Sullivan: The Mariners are third in high-leverage wRC+, and 19th in low-leverage wRC+

9:19

Jeff Sullivan: They’re third in high-leverage wOBA allowed, and 17th in low-leverage wOBA allowed

9:19

Jeff Sullivan: They’re a perfectly adequate team, but this is always basically a mirage

9:20

Preller: Will the Yankees go after Brad Hand? Maybe package him with Tyson Ross, what kind of package would it take?

9:20

Jeff Sullivan: Given how the Padres make demands in negotiations, it’s hard for me to see Cashman being the guy who caves

9:21

Jeff Sullivan: Which isn’t to say he *won’t* go after Hand or Ross, but Cashman surely doesn’t want to dip into his best prospects. Maybe for Hand, but the Padres are going to try to drive a nearly impossible bargain

9:22

Jeff Sullivan: Incidentally, if the Brewers wanted to make their bullpen lethal, they could get involved for Hand. And Ross, too, for the rotation. But they might not want to give up the pieces they have left

9:22

All Cats Are Beautiful : Did you get into baseball writing for the money or the ladies?

9:22

Jeff Sullivan: I got into it to avoid having to go to chemistry grad school

9:22

Jeff Sullivan: So far, so good!

9:23

O’Broxton Tortas: Is there a baseball equivalent to what’s going on in Ottawa, and do you see yourself switching NHL allegiances as some point?

9:23

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t believe in switching allegiances, but it is probably the worst ownership situation in the four major North American sports

9:23

Jeff Sullivan: If not the very worst, then bottom five

9:24

Jeff Sullivan: Imagine the Wilpons, but in a much smaller market

9:25

Jeff Sullivan: As far as the personal stuff goes between Karlsson’s partner and Hoffman’s partner, I’m reminded of when Carlos Peguero’s wife stole from Felix Hernandez’s wife http://blogs.seattletimes.com/today/2014/06/wife-of-ex-mariner-sentenc…

9:25

Jeff Sullivan: Sports are weird. Sports cause us to learn weird things about people

9:26

greg: What to do with Scooter Gennett?  Senzel looming…

9:27

Jeff Sullivan: Personally, I’d try Senzel at shortstop, since Peraza is bad and the Reds aren’t playing for anything anyway. But more likely they just flip Gennett pretty soon for low-level prospects

9:27

Jeff Sullivan: Right or not, Gennett just isn’t a guy who’s going to command a major return

9:28

Ichiro for CEO: Jeff what would you change to incentive teams not to tank?

9:28

Jeff Sullivan: I wouldn’t mind a draft lottery, but I also don’t see tanking as a major problem in the sport today

9:29

Jeff Sullivan: Teams are already incentivized not to tank because it sucks. It’s a horrible process for everybody. And the worst team in baseball right now is the Orioles, who were trying to compete!

9:30

Austin: Alright, thoughts on Twins move to send Sano down to Single A???

9:31

Jeff Sullivan: He’s made zero progress in any facet. I wouldn’t read too much into the Single-A part — I think they just want Sano to have access to the facilities at that location. Might as well be Double-A or even Triple-A. What matters is the demotion, and I think it was time to try to give Sano a wake-up call. I’m pleased to hear he’s open-minded about it

9:32

Beni and the Betts: Is Jose Ramirez the new king of trade value?

9:33

Jeff Sullivan: Five years, $43 million after this season is finished. Fifth among position players in WAR since the start of 2016

9:34

Jeff Sullivan: With Shohei Ohtani on the disabled list and possibly/probably looking at Tommy John, it’s hard for me to know who else might get the nod

9:35

Jeff Sullivan: Last summer Dave ranked Carlos Correa at No. 1, but he’s got just three years left, and he hasn’t been as good as Ramirez

9:35

Matty P: If I had a fastball and curveball that I could throw anywhere I wanted with exact precision , how slow could my fastball be and still play in the MLB?

9:35

Jeff Sullivan: 80 miles per hour

9:38

Norm Macdonald: Leonys Martin has been hitting way more flyballs this year and has seen good results. What are the chances he brings back an interesting prospect at the deadline?

9:38

Jeff Sullivan: Martin won’t get the Tigers a lot, on account of his own background, but he has had a very encouraging year and he can still play a regular center field

9:39

Jeff Sullivan: Obviously, most of the players prized and moved around the deadline are pitchers. Martin feels like he’d bring back the Eduardo Nunez package from last July

9:39

Jeff Sullivan: That was two lower-level starting pitchers

9:40

Eh: What’s turned Justin Miller into a force in the bullpen?

9:40

Jeff Sullivan: I was just looking into him yesterday. There’s not a real clean explanation, but he’s been absolutely dominant, and he was no less dominant in Triple-A

9:41

Jeff Sullivan: He’s seemingly turned his four-seamer into more of a cutter, and he’s better able to keep his slider buried. Throw in plain old better conditioning and you have a hell of a career resurrection

9:41

Boba Shett: Could the Brewers land Jacob deGrom without losing Josh Hader?

9:41

Jeff Sullivan: Yes

9:43

Ichiro: Buying into a changed Felix in a ‘good’ two out of three starts? Or thinking it is a mirage? Thanks.

9:43

Jeff Sullivan: Slider came back last night for the first time in a while. Velocity was up somewhat. I think Felix was really feeling it, in that competitive environment

9:44

Jeff Sullivan: Way too early for me to believe that Felix has solved anything, but I also believe he does still have enough stuff to get by. I am very, very modestly encouraged

9:47

The KHole in Calhoun’s bat: What’s going on with Matt Thaiss? He is on “temporarily inactive list” but Angels FO hasn’t said why. Usually they give a simple reason like family/paternity leave but given they haven’t mentioned why it’s concerning it might be related to PED

9:48

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think there’s a history of PED players going on the temporarily inactive list

9:48

Jeff Sullivan: You won’t be surprised to learn my brief digging here didn’t turn up the truth, but at this point it doesn’t seem like a thing to worry about

9:48

Jeff Sullivan: Probably just a personal matter

9:49

Rockie Dangerfield: If you added up all the WPA on every missed ball/strike call by every ump for each team over the course of a season, do you think the total effect would be greater or less than a given team’s most influential reliever?

9:50

Jeff Sullivan: Maybe once or twice, it would exceed the influence of a team’s most important reliever. But that would come down to some very extreme pitch-framing, which most teams don’t have anymore

9:51

Jim: My proposal for the wild card series: 2-games, away & home(from higher seed’s perspective) with a travel day in between. Lower seed needs to win both games to advance. Your thoughts?

9:51

Jeff Sullivan: Way too harsh given that the second wild-card team is usually hardly worse than the first

9:52

Jeff Sullivan: I know that, last year, the wild-card teams in both leagues were separated by six wins. But the year before that, the wild-card teams had identical records. Why put one of those teams at a 3:1 disadvantage?

9:55

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: If you don’t answer this question, my ass will be in the jackpot. What do you think about the declining attendance numbers this season? Weather was a convenient excuse early, but things seem to be adding up…

9:56

Jeff Sullivan: The first thing I’ll say is there’s a difference between attendance and tickets sold. I’d be interested to know if actual *attendance* is down

9:56

Jeff Sullivan: The second thing I’ll say is this is a lot more complicated than we want it to be and I don’t possess nearly enough information to give you a great answer

9:57

Jeff Sullivan: But just generally speaking, the in-home experience of watching baseball has gotten better, and the expense of going to the actual ballpark, especially as a family, has gotten worse

9:57

Jeff Sullivan: Another question worth answering: even though ticket sales are down, is ticket- and concession-related revenue down?

9:58

Cespedes U Bum: Things are looking pretty bleak for the mets huh? Retool around the core or complete rebuild?

9:59

Jeff Sullivan: I think their direction will be dictated by the conversations they have in the coming weeks. There’s virtually no excuse for a team in New York to ever give up on competing for multiple years at a time. But since they could conceivably trade both deGrom and Syndergaard — those are easily the best starters who could become available. So if there are front offices willing to blow them away with prospect packages, that makes it harder to say no

10:00

Young Will: Is Dylan Covey for real? White Sox fans need a surprise like this after watching Giolito and Fulmer struggle. Is this our break, Jeff?

10:00

Jeff Sullivan: I think Covey is much better. I don’t yet think he’s genuinely good, but I’ve been poking around this week, and he’s easily the most encouraging of any of their young pitchers to this point

10:00

Jeff Sullivan: Lot of faith in that sinker

10:02

Barry G.: Thoughts on Jeimer Candelario’s season so far? The defense at third has looked better than expected.

10:04

Jeff Sullivan: You’re right about the defense, and the bat has of course been one of the better ones on the roster

10:05

Jeff Sullivan: On the (relative) downside, I’m not sure Candelario’s bat has improved from last season, and he’s done a lot of his damage against bad pitching. I don’t think we’re looking at a multiple All-Star, here. But as an everyday player on the team right now, you could do a lot worse. Good return in that trade

10:05

GP: Thoughts on Miguel Sano’s demotion to High-A? Should more teams send struggling players to the affiliate that plays at their Spring Training facility instead of Triple-A? The Twins front office cited the resources available to help him work through his struggles there.

10:06

Jeff Sullivan: Depends on the player and depends on the struggles. If you’re just like trying to get some pitcher’s changeup better, Triple-A is fine. You make him throw it 40% of the time. You see how it does against high-level opponents. If you’re doing something more dramatic, however, or attempting to make a mechanical overhaul, then you want to reduce pressure as much as possible

10:07

Mike sixel: Sano to A ball. Buxton can’t hit. Kepler? What is going on in Minnesota?

10:07

Jeff Sullivan: Evidence is mounting that Buxton just isn’t a good hitter

10:08

Jeff Sullivan: Kepler is what he is. He’s okay. Rosario and Escobar are the real positive surprises

10:08

Jeff Sullivan: Rosario has the same wRC+ as Joey Votto! Escobar has the same wRC+ as Jose Altuve!

10:10

Guest: domingo German is 2nd among starters in SwStr% with 50 IP minimum. Is this the kind of thing that sticks?

10:10

Jeff Sullivan: That’s a sticky stat, yeah. It is evident that German is very good in the area of generating swinging strikes

10:11

Jeff Sullivan: Now, he’s gotten somewhat abused when pitching out of the stretch, but I wouldn’t worry about that too much long-term

10:13

vivalajeter: I’m listening to your most recent podcast with a discussion about Terry Collins arguing with the umpire.  It sounds like you mentioned several times that it was the second game of the season.  Did I hear that correctly?  Because my recollection is that it was midseason, and it was a Fox game of the week, which is why they had some players/umps mic’d up.

10:13

Jeff Sullivan: No, you’re right, I was wrong

10:14

Jeff Sullivan: It was the second game of the *series*, not the second game of the season

10:14

Jeff Sullivan: It was also the second time Utley faced Syndergaard in that game, and not the first

10:14

Jeff Sullivan: And it was the second Mets series against the Dodgers in the early going

10:14

Jeff Sullivan: Weird timing all around

10:15

Lunch Angle: At what point does a player signed to a long-term contract but who’s getting really really bad at playing baseball consider retiring, just to save some dignity? (cough cough Chris Davis cough cough)

I mean maybe just consider, obviously the players union would never actually let that happen.

10:16

Jeff Sullivan: What’s worth more to Chris Davis — a little bit of dignity, or a hundred million dollars?

10:17

Jeff Sullivan: Now you could say, sure, Davis doesn’t *need* another hundred million dollars. But it’s not like the only option is for him to keep it all. Maybe he’s extremely charitable! Maybe that could all go to solve world hunger!

10:18

Jeff Sullivan: On the other hand, Gil Meche walked away from $12 million because he didn’t think he was earning it https://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/27/sports/baseball/27meche.html?_r=1

10:18

Jeff Sullivan: Ryne Sandberg walked away from $16 million https://www.nytimes.com/1994/06/14/sports/baseball-a-slipping-sandberg…

10:19

Jeff Sullivan: So there’s no zero precedent. I just wouldn’t expect it

10:20

Kiermaier’s Bored: How do you think the slimmed down Panda will do taking Longoria’s place while he is on DL?

10:20

Jeff Sullivan: Evan Longoria has an OBP of .278

10:20

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think they’ll miss much of a beat, to be honest

10:21

All Cats Are Beautiful : If Ohtani is out for long, the Yankees finish 1-2 in ROY voting, right?

10:21

Jeff Sullivan: Seems practically guaranteed

10:21

Jeff Sullivan: And if Domingo German finishes strong, in theory they could go 1-2-3!

10:22

Rockie Dangerfield: I heard a rumor yesterday that Manfred is discussing a rule to outlaw the shift.  Why does it seem like the commissioner of baseball hates baseball so much?

10:22

Jeff Sullivan: This has come up before. Hasn’t materialized yet, and I wouldn’t expect it to in the future

10:23

Jeff Sullivan: There’s a huge difference between hating baseball and being open-minded about baseball. I applaud Manfred’s attempted proactivity. But there are other areas to be proactive

10:23

Guest: What do you think about the Twins trading Kyle Gibson (who is having a great year)? Likely to happen? Do you think they retool in general? They’re 6 GB and have to jump 5/6 teams for the WC at this point

10:24

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think they’ll do it — even if 2018 is mostly shot, they have another opening in 2019, and the White Sox, Royals, and Tigers will still be bad

10:24

Jeff Sullivan: And the Indians will lose Andrew Miller

10:25

Broseph: What’s the deal with Alen Hanson? Is he, like, good now?

10:25

Jeff Sullivan: Nah

10:25

Jeff Sullivan: He’s better, but not actually-good better

10:26

Boba Shett: From this list of cities, which two would you favor for expansion (not necessarily most likely): Memphis, Charlotte, Portland, New Orleans, San Antonio’s, Las Vegas, Montreal, Vancouver, San Juan PR, Mexico City

10:26

Jeff Sullivan: Portland and Montreal

10:26

Jeff Sullivan: I’d love to see a team in Mexico City down the road but I don’t think the league is there yet

10:26

Jeff Sullivan: To say nothing of what the game would be like playing at even higher elevation than Denver

10:27

Alex: What kind of haul do you think the Orioles get if they ever decide to trade Machado

10:27

Jeff Sullivan: I’m sensing a package led by two talented pitching prospects

10:27

Jeff Sullivan: Somewhat close to the majors

10:28

Jeff Sullivan: The Orioles won’t want to settle for the kind of return other teams would be willing to give for a rental, but talented pitching prospects have the right blend of ceiling and volatility to please all parties involved

10:29

CT: Jose Ramirez has been the most valuable player in the past calendar year at 9.9 fWAR… not really a question, but WOW

10:29

Jeff Sullivan: Jose Ramirez might be a top-five player in all the major leagues. He topped out as Baseball America’s No. 9 Indians prospect before 2014

10:30

Jeff Sullivan: Corey Kluber, of course, was never a top prospect

10:30

Jeff Sullivan: Jacob deGrom topped out as the Mets’ No. 10 prospect, once

10:30

Jeff Sullivan: Jose Altuve was never a top prospect

10:30

Jeff Sullivan: Almost the entire understood notion of ceilings is bullshit

10:31

Pontoons: Why does Fangraphs no longer show league averages for pitch info plate discipline stats on player pages like it does for the BIS data and did for pitch/fx?

10:31

Jeff Sullivan: Good question. Probably a bug. I’ll ask

10:31

Gianna: Why is it a home run when an outfielder knocks the ball over the fence? Shouldn’t it be an error at least

10:32

Jeff Sullivan: The argument is probably that, most of the time, when this happens, it’s the outfielder attempting what would be an extraordinary play

10:32

Jeff Sullivan: That’s not always true. But it often is

10:33

Nelson: Can the Blue Jays realistically get much of anything for Josh Donaldson?

10:33

Jeff Sullivan: Not right now, but they could if he had a really strong five or six weeks

10:33

Boba Shett: Which contending teams are in the best / worst positions to make a blockbuster trade by August?

10:34

Jeff Sullivan: Well the Mariners literally closed all their minor-league affiliates because they don’t have any players left, so they couldn’t swing a blockbuster if they tried

10:35

Jeff Sullivan: The Yankees could at the drop of a hat. Same with the Braves. Same with the Brewers. Lots of contending teams could do something big. Most of them will hold off

10:35

Mike Montgomery: Over 4 starts, I’ve held down a 1.14 ERA (3.51 FIP), I groundout everyone (60.9%), I prevent line drives (8.7%), and I haven’t walked the world (1.14 BB/9). Please tell me that I get to stay in the rotation ahead of Tyler ‘Stormtrooper’ Chatwood.

10:35

Jeff Sullivan: If the Cubs don’t trade for a starter, I wouldn’t mind seeing this attempted swap. See if Chatwood can do anything out of the bullpen, because he’s a miserable starter

10:36

BCB: How bad is the rest of Giancarlo’s contract looking right now?  Should Marlins fans be relieved they managed to dump it?

10:37

Jeff Sullivan: Perfect example of peoples’ collective failure to understand that trades are about more than just the players involved

10:38

Jeff Sullivan: The contracts matter. The contracts matter! And even after last year, Giancarlo Stanton’s contract didn’t look *good* for a team

10:38

Jeff Sullivan: That contract definitely had no place on the Marlins. Now, Marlins fans would surely love to still have Stanton around, since he’s so much fun and so very talented, but that contract didn’t fit with that club from the moment it was signed

10:39

Jeff Sullivan: Thankfully for the Yankees, they’re the last team in baseball that has to worry about an expensive liability

10:39

Wes: Why do you say “WOBA” and “WAR” but spell out O-P-S on the Podcast?

10:39

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know

10:39

Jeff Sullivan: the letter W is annoying to say I guess

10:40

Bernie: How many teams from the NL Central make the playoffs?

10:40

Jeff Sullivan: Two

10:41

Wes: Is Choo a thing? How much does Texas eat to move him and does anybody want him?

10:42

Jeff Sullivan: He’s due another $42 million over two years after this season is finished. He’s been worth three wins since the start of 2016

10:42

Jeff Sullivan: Not much of a market for a non-elite pseudo-DH

10:43

Wes: If you had to get in the octagon with one MLB player, who would be the last player you would fight?

10:43

Jeff Sullivan: James Paxton. I would rather hug him

10:44

Grant: How should the Angels approach the next couple of years? If they don’t sign Trout to an extension, should they dip into their farm to try and compete? Some great talent (finally) but Adell and others probably won’t be ready to contribute during Trout’s current contract.

10:44

Jeff Sullivan: So much depends on what happens with Ohtani. But the Angels know they can’t give up as long as Trout is under contract

10:45

Jeff Sullivan: Now, they won’t be able to keep up with the Astros, and they won’t be able to keep up with the Red Sox and Yankees. Basically, the Angels are stuck playing for the second wild card. But they’re not a lot worse off than the other contenders for that position over the next few years

10:47

Yo: What is wrong with Austin Barnes?

10:48

Jeff Sullivan: Hitting too many grounders. I don’t know why. He’ll shake this off, but he’s definitely not as good as last year’s 142 wRC+

10:48

Jeff Sullivan: This is an example of why it’s good to have a pair of quality catchers

10:49

Jeff Sullivan: Last year Grandal slumped out of nowhere. Now it’s Barnes’ turn

10:49

Ethan: Who is more likely to turn it around – Dexter Fowler or Chris Davis?

10:49

Jeff Sullivan: Fowler

10:50

Mitchell: Ran a list on ya’ll’s leaderboard, WAR since 2012, just to see how far beyond everybody else is behind Ruth, er, Trout. 15th on that list, just behind Harper and Machado? Kyle Freakin’ Seager! 15th in WAR since 2012! Who knew?

10:50

Jeff Sullivan: The Mariners, when they gave him $100 million

10:51

Jeff Sullivan: But Seager is looking like a player in decline. Just no ability to hit the ball hard the other way

10:52

Derek: Do you think Ozzie Albies’ low OBP numbers are due to his swing-at-early fastballs approach or is it something to worry about?

10:52

Jeff Sullivan: Last year in the majors, Albies hit one pop-up. So far this year he’s hit 12

10:53

Jeff Sullivan: He’s an aggressive swinger, and much of his best contact is in the air. He’ll be more of a slugging threat than an on-base threat

10:53

Rockie Dangerfield: I’m pretty sure a team made up of players on the NL West’s DL would be the best team in the NL West

10:53

Jeff Sullivan: It’s funny in a way — all this well-developed analysis, and still to a certain extent it’s random injuries that determine the course of a season, which, in turn, can determine the course of a franchise

10:54

Jeff Sullivan: Are the Mets in a bad place because of unfortunate injury luck, or has it been something systemic? I don’t know, but now they might have to rebuild!

10:54

Anthony: What inspires you to look up Pablo Sandoval’s first-pitch strike rate and Eric Lauer’s pickoff totals? It’s gold, but how do you find this shit

10:55

Jeff Sullivan: Sandoval was luck. That was just browsing around for something unrelated. With Lauer, multiple people pointed me in his direction

10:55

Nic: Re;Astros best team in baseball.I think the Yankees might have something to say about that.

10:55

Jeff Sullivan: Which is fine, but the Astros probably can’t hear them from all the way up there on their pedestal

10:56

Jeff Sullivan: The Yankees are great. The Astros are virtually flawless

10:57

Kevin: A few weeks ago, you noted that the quickest pitchers to the plate were all LHPs. Was that for all situations, or only bases-empty? If all situations, I assume LHP are a lot quicker to the plate with runners only on first because it’s so easy for them to check over to first base before the pitch.

10:57

Jeff Sullivan: I only have access to overall pace numbers, so, all situations combined. I think your hunch is correct

10:58

Jeff Sullivan: With righties, a key part of controlling the running game is varying times. Holding the ball for a while to make the runner uncomfortable. Lefties have it much more easy

10:58

d: Any thoughts on the Red Sox acquisition of Eric Filia?

10:58

Jeff Sullivan: Can hit, nowhere to play

10:58

Hank: Should the Tigers look to trade Nick Castellanos?

10:59

Jeff Sullivan: They should explore the market, but if the return is weak, like last year’s J.D. Martinez trade, then there’s not that much incentive for them to do anything

10:59

Jeff Sullivan: There’s value in just keeping him around to make the on-field product more palatable

10:59

v2micca: Is there a metric that quantifies the value added by a player who consistently sees more pitches per plate appearance than the league average?

10:59

Jeff Sullivan: No, because it’s not at all clear whether that’s valuable at all

11:01

Kristen: TEX have anything that might get NYY to pry one of their stud AAA-SP prospects like Sheffield or Swanson loose?

11:01

Jeff Sullivan: Doubt it. Maybe if they paid literally all of Hamels’ remaining contract

11:02

All Cats Are Beautiful : The Yankees have graduated Severino, Sanchez, Judge, and Gleyber in successive years. Plus additional guys like Andujar, Green, Montgomery. Is this unprecedented or is it just unprecedented to a Yankees fan?

11:02

Jeff Sullivan: One of my favorite old fun facts is that, between 1992 – 1996, the Dodgers won five consecutive NL Rookie of the Year awards

11:02

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think this is unprecedented — it’s just great, and, for the Yankees, very unfamiliar

11:03

Cwis Cwik: Thoughts on Jhoulys Chacin? Looks like a great value for the Brewers and his constantly changing pitches, pace, and delivery give him a fun Cueto-like vibe.

11:03

Jeff Sullivan: Been a lot better since a bad April. I’ve been meaning to check up on him a little further down the line, since I know he was sort of intended to be a Brewers experiment

11:04

Jeff Sullivan: Seemingly hasn’t made any progress against lefties

11:04

Jeff Sullivan: But that slider is truly a wonderful pitch

11:05

Cheesesteak: If you were the Phillies GM, what would you do, assuming the team is in contention in a month?

11:06

Jeff Sullivan: I doubt I’d do anything major, but it kind of depends on how the next month goes. Would be interested in adding an everyday corner outfielder

11:06

Anthony: Benintendi’s hard contact is down ten points, yet his slugging is up 130 points. How does that happen? Luck?

11:07

Jeff Sullivan: He’s gotten better about selectively pulling the ball, but I do think lately he’s just been playing over his head

11:07

Jeff Sullivan: Good player! And he wouldn’t be the first quality BB/K guy to experience a power spike. But I think this is just a hot streak

11:07

Anthony: How much optimism do you have that Sano bounces back?

11:08

Jeff Sullivan: He’ll be back in the majors, but I don’t think he’s going to be a star anymore

11:08

Hobbs: Is David Pertalta good now or is this just a hot streak? He’s already 3 away from career HR total. You think he keeps his playing time when everybody is healthy and hits 30HR?

11:09

Jeff Sullivan: Peralta was a dangerous hitter before he started having back problems. If he’s healthy now, it’s not that much of a surprise that he’s dangerous again

11:09

Anthony: What happened to Jonathan Schoop?

11:09

Jeff Sullivan: What happened to Rougned Odor?

11:10

Jeff Sullivan: Seems like swinging at everything is just a dangerous game to play

11:10

Jeff Sullivan: All right, I need to get rolling

11:10

Jeff Sullivan: So thank you everybody for hanging out, and I’m sorry for what I didn’t or couldn’t address. We’ll do it again next week at the same time, and until then, be well and have great days

We hoped you liked reading Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 6/15/18 by Jeff Sullivan!

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Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.

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Nathan Lazarus
Member
Nathan Lazarus

To the guy who asked about xBABIP, you can find xBA on Statcast player pages, take out the strikeouts and use real HR as a proxy for xHR.

Aaron
Member
Aaron

You can also find xBABIP on xStats.org (although may be calculated differently than Baseball Savant)