Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 8/11/17

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: Feels like it’s been a while

9:06
Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: I appreciate you, Jeff.  You make Fridays so much better.

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: /pats self on back

9:07
Jeff Sullivan: Let’s just go ahead and appreciate me for the next couple of hours

9:07
David Keys: Rhys Hoskins, bust?

9:07
Jeff Sullivan: Rhys Hoskins, quality player

9:07
Jeff Sullivan: Might get a little overrated in the short term given how bad the Phillies have been to this point, but there’s not much not to like

9:08
Forrest: How reliable is baserunning data (compared to defense, hitting, and pitching) and:

Is it possible Trouts WAR total is inflated by an otherworldly (but unreliable) BsR?

Case in point:
-Trout had 6th highest BsR season of all time his rookie year (in just 130 games).
-Chase Utley has 16th highest BsR of all-time with just 150 career SB’s (WTF?)
-Trout is 4th best base runner of all-time thru age 25 season

9:08
Jeff Sullivan: Comparing present-day players to historical players has its shortcomings, because the baserunning methodology changed somewhere around 2002

9:09
Jeff Sullivan: If I’m not mistaken, pre-2002, players are given baserunning credit only for steals. More recently, we’ve been able to fold in UBR and double-play stuff

9:10
Jeff Sullivan: So it’s better to just look at the overall baserunning metric from 2002 on. Otherwise, if you want to go back further, only look at wSB

9:10
Jeff Sullivan: Alternatively, I think Baseball-Reference’s baserunning stat tries to be somewhat consistent throughout, as best as it can

9:11
Mr. Nor’easter: Do you think that Hicks will out-produce Gardner ROS in run production in the Yankee’s lineup? Gardner’s early season power has faded, but Hicks is coming off an injury.

9:11
Jeff Sullivan: I think they’re likely to be quite similar, with Hicks getting a slight advantage on account of being a switch-hitter

9:12
RK: If you were the Dodgers, would you even want Adrian Gonzalez to return?  think there’s a chance he’s DFAd?

9:12
Jeff Sullivan: I think the Dodgers feel a very, very low sense of urgency here

9:13
Jeff Sullivan: But healthy Gonzalez can still be a modestly helpful player, so they’d probably like to have him available for the playoffs as a reserve

9:13
Baseball Fan #1: Any fun plans with Ben when he comes to visit you?

9:13
Jeff Sullivan: Sit in eclipse traffic forever

9:13
Jeff Sullivan: It’s going to be a catastrophe

9:14
JTT: So Heyward still can’t hit, 6 years left on his deal. This is going to get ugly, right?

9:15
Jeff Sullivan: Past 900 plate appearances now in which Jason Heyward has hit like a fourth outfielder

9:16
Jeff Sullivan: As long as he can preserve his contact and athleticism, he’ll keep himself from becoming a zero, so this won’t end up, like, Pujols or Cabrera-level bad. But yeah, this has never looked worse, so far

9:16
Joey Gallo: Everyone talks about my elite TTO ability, but what about my elite baserunning so far?

9:16
Jeff Sullivan: It’s probably a fluke, for the most part, but Gallo’s athleticism is definitely underrated as people focus on the other two things

9:17
Jeff Sullivan: Pretty obvious that Gallo will always run a good wGDP

9:17
Vince Clortho: If current trends hold, the first immaculate game will be pitched in the year 2____

9:17
Jeff Sullivan: never

9:17
AK: No question, just want to say you and your chat were missed last week <3

9:17
Jeff Sullivan: Send all such complaints to MR DAVID APPELMAN

9:18
Detroit’s Most Wanted: Hey Jeff, thanks for the chat. Tyler Glasnow has been baffling AAA hitters for the last month. When will the Pirates make the call and give him another chance?

9:18
Jeff Sullivan: It really can’t be far off

9:19
Jeff Sullivan: Glasnow, in the recent past, has struggled to throw 60% strikes

9:19
Jeff Sullivan: This year in Triple-A, he’s at 65%, with an extremely low contact rate

9:19
Jeff Sullivan: The Pirates probably want to see if the muscle memory holds up, but there are at least these signs that Glasnow has made the necessary improvement

9:20
The Average Sports Fan: I do not have a great understanding of the advanced fielding metrics.  But it seems that in a small sample, Moncada is proving to be a average or better 2b.   Am I looking at it correctly?

9:20
Jeff Sullivan: He has a DRS and a UZR of +1, so that’s more good than bad. But it’s also based on 164 innings, so it’s effectively meaningless

9:21
LegallyEagle: What are the chances Houston blows their lead in the AL? It seems like a legitimate possibility, albeit still small (for now).

9:21
Jeff Sullivan: Like, first place in the AL, or first place in the AL West?

9:22
Jeff Sullivan: I can see maybe a 10-20% chance they don’t finish with the AL’s best record, but the division is theirs. The competition is far too weak

9:22
Anthony: Luis Castillo close to getting shut down?

9:23
Jeff Sullivan: Should still have another few starts. He’s at only +9 innings compared to last season

9:23
Providence: Tim Beckham has been raking since moving to Baltimore. Are you intrigued? Former #1 pick found something or just off to a good start?

9:23
Jeff Sullivan: Been a week and a half of facing bad pitching. I don’t really care

9:24
Lump: Better young hitter for the future: Trey Mancini or Nomar Mazara?

9:25
Jeff Sullivan: Mazara is three years younger than Mancini is. Mancini is the better hitter today, but I think Mazara will develop into the better hitter and the better player

9:25
Joel: Ronald Acuna – will he live up to the hype? Who do you think he comps to best?

9:25
Jeff Sullivan: As a safety mechanism, you should operate with the assumption that no young player will ever live up to the hype

9:26
Jeff Sullivan: But to do what he’s done, at 19? Acuna is clearly in possession of special skills. His season has been insane

9:28
Nick S: Why is the average pitch velocity under a pitcher’s splits tab different than the vFA listed under a pitcher’s season stats?

9:28
Jeff Sullivan: That’s a good question! I’ll ask someone who would know after this chat is over

9:28
fangraphs dan the fangraphs man: i’ve noticed much of the writing on fangraphs does not come from people with training in statistics, but rather those who know how to intepret them in the contest of baseball (which to be clear is a very valuable skill and makes for good writing). but i was wondering, what does fangraphs do to develop new stats? is there a behind the scenes R&D team? or do you tend to get new stats from external service providers?

9:29
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think FanGraphs is really in the business of developing new stats

9:30
Jeff Sullivan: I mean, this was the first place where you could find WAR, and everything, but there are already so many metrics out there, and we don’t need to do much, aside from, like, updating the park factors. We have contracts to be able to provide other peoples’ defensive numbers. At some point we’re going to have other peoples’ catching numbers, etc

9:30
Jeff Sullivan: And at a time when Baseball Savant is releasing so much of the processed Statcast data, I don’t know that we need to be doing things internally

9:30
Joel: What analysis would you most like to do but don’t have the necessary data to do?

9:30
Jeff Sullivan: Literally anything having to do with player development

9:30
Tom: Do you ever choose the podcast intro/outro music, or is that all Ben?

9:31
Jeff Sullivan: If you have any such podcast question, the answer is always Ben. Ben is the machine that makes the podcast possible, and he deserves all the credit for anything about the podcast you like

9:31
Jeff Sullivan: Now I suppose I could, in theory, suggest a song or a band, but I haven’t done that, because it would feel like stepping on toes

9:33
Tim: Jeff, Austin Barnes has a 1.8 WAR with only 170 plate appearances. Should the Dodgers consider playing him more at 2B since he can also play there and Farmer has looked decent in limited time as a backup catcher?

9:34
Jeff Sullivan: I’m not sure the incentive is there. Playing Barnes more often at second base could expose him to a greater risk of potential injury, and while the Dodgers haven’t been *great* at second base this season, they also haven’t been bad. Forsythe has been fine, and so has Utley, so there’s not much reason to change anything

9:35
LegallyEagle: Would any team be willing to take a chance on Cueto if he was offered for basically free (the team just having to take on the contract)?

9:35
Jeff Sullivan: Bad year and a flexor strain? Nope

9:35
Jeff Sullivan: Cueto’s contract is at least temporarily underwater

9:36
Jake: The Rockies currently have the second worst wRC+ in baseball at 83, despite being third in runs and a .274/.333/.442 team slash line. The Astros lead in runs and wRC+ (129) with a .290/.353/.500 team slash line. How insane of a slash line would the Rockies have to have to be running a 129 wRC+?

9:36
Jeff Sullivan: Thankfully this is kind of easy! Nolan Arenado right now has a 124 wRC+. His slash line is .315/.363/.588

9:36
Jeff Sullivan: So something a little better than that

9:36
Jeff Sullivan: lol

9:38
Jeff Sullivan: OPS in Rockies games in Colorado: .838
OPS in Rockies games not in Colorado: .716

9:38
Jim: Hello, Jeff. Go Yard Goats!

9:38
Jeff Sullivan: They are not very good!

9:39
Jeff Sullivan: But it’s a beautiful stadium, and, honestly, I didn’t think I’d ever go back to Hartford after graduating from college. It’s looking better than it did

9:40
Kevin Burke: Hello! I have a question. How does the “player to be named later” actually work? What stops teams from trying to send their equipment manager or the mascot or something as the player to be named later?

9:40
Jeff Sullivan: Generally, two sides agree on a short list of players who could individually be selected, and then by some deadline, the receiving team has to pick

9:41
Mariners: Are the Mariners done if (when) Paxton hits the DL?

9:41
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t see how they can hope to do much of anything without Paxton, but we should at least wait on the MRI results

9:41
Hank G.: Other than the missed time, has the injury affected Mike Trout at all? He seems to have picked up right where he left off. He has an outside chance to still be the AL position player leader in WAR.

9:42
Jeff Sullivan: Seems like he’s fine. Maybe even better than that. Everyone pointed to the chance that he could struggle to find his timing, but maybe, instead, Trout has benefited from a month or so of midseason rest

9:42
Mike M: You get to start a franchise with either Jose Ramirez or Lindor, who ya got?

9:42
Jeff Sullivan: Lindor

9:43
Mr. Optimism: I know this is probably unlikely, but how about the Jays trading for Verlander? Obviously it would depend on how much of the salary the Tigers pay and the prospects involved but he’s only got two years left meaning he’d be off the payroll at the same time as Russell Martin and a year before Tulo. If the jays wanted to make one more run at it next year it seems to make sense if the Tigers were willing to toss in 30-35mill. Then at 2019 payroll is freed up for the Vlad/Bichette era jays. Thoughts?

9:43
Jeff Sullivan: I feel like, right now, there are teams that would stand to benefit from adding Verlander more than the Jays would

9:43
Jeff Sullivan: So while I could understand there being some possibility come winter time, other teams could want Verlander today

9:44
Tommy John Jay Bruce: Does anyone want to win the AL?

9:44
Jeff Sullivan: Have you seen the NL?

9:44
Jeff Sullivan: I wouldn’t want to face it

9:44
Charlie: On a scale from 1 to 10, how smart of a baseball move was the Jay Bruce trade from the Mets’ perspective?

9:45
Jeff Sullivan: Ordinary baseball move. Neither smart nor dumb. Moved salary within an extremely limited market.

9:45
striker: Odds Rodon get’s dealt this offseason? Window of control does not align with window of contention.

9:45
Jeff Sullivan: Timing isn’t right, and the future isn’t that predictable

9:47
Charlie: What’s the deal with Aaron Judge?

9:48
Jeff Sullivan: I haven’t recently taken a look at any pitching changes since the All-Star break, but Judge has still posted a well above-average expected wOBA, even during this slump. It was inevitable he was going to cool off, and he’s got a little extra swing and miss, but I have faith he’s going to pull out of this

9:49
Jeff Sullivan: Hell, his second-half slugging percentage improves nearly 50 points just giving him credit for the home run that JBJ miraculously robbed

9:50
LegallyEagle: So many teams are on the cusp of the playoffs in the AL. How does that shape this off-season? Outside of the Royals, are the rest of these teams going to have a “let’s buy and get over the last hump” mindset? Seems like a seller’s/FA’s kind of market.

9:51
Jeff Sullivan: I think it could just mean that these teams won’t bite the bullet and sell pieces off. Less about significant buying, and more about not giving up. You could argue the Orioles should blow it up, but they’re still hanging around. I’ve seen arguments the Mariners should blow it up, but they won’t do it, etc

9:52
Concerned Houston Fan: Astros just got swept by the Chicago White Sox and are not looking great. Liriano sucks. Should the Astros make a move? Are the Astros in trouble?

9:53
Jeff Sullivan: The Astros have had the best team wRC+ in baseball since the All-Star break, even despite a handful of significant injuries. There are obvious question marks on the pitching side, and they’re aware of those, and it wouldn’t shock me to see someone acquired. But the whole benefit of having such a massive cushion is that the Astros don’t need to feel actual panic. They’re plenty good enough to play themselves out of this. Would feel a lot better if Keuchel got in a groove, though

9:54
Nick: Cody Allen has been getting beat up a bit lately, and Dave said on Wednesday that he’s been awful for a little while now.  His overall season numbers still look good, what has changed lately?

9:54
Jeff Sullivan: I haven’t looked for a few weeks, but I couldn’t find anything too alarming. Allen was great in July. I didn’t see anything to worry about. Allen is simply a good reliever who isn’t an elite reliever

9:55
Jake: I’m not usually one to try and anticipate playoff rotations so far out, but what are the Mariners going to do if they somehow sneak in with Paxton + _____? If Felix is still hurt, is their best bet to have bullpen games on all non-Paxton starts? If Paxton is hurt too though…

9:55
Jeff Sullivan: So on the one hand, yeah, don’t bother looking ahead that far. Way too many intermediate hurdles

9:56
Jeff Sullivan: On the other hand, remember what the Indians did in 2016? It would look like that, without the Andrew Miller factor

9:56
Mr. Machado : How does it work for teams to (attempt to) block trades in August? If team A puts in a claim on a player from team B, is there an outside party that judges whether or not team A offers a reasonably fair package or if team B has been lowballed? Or does anything go, and someone like Ryan Ryder could either be seen as unfairly low or market value depending on the year?

9:57
Jeff Sullivan: Anything goes. A team can claim a player and, in theory, offer the worst player in the system. This is one of the reasons why August trades are so much less frequent. There’s not much in the way of leverage

9:58
Larry: In the hypothetical situation that the Mariners put Cano on waivers *and* a team claimed him, do you think Dipoto would – even given their current playoff chase – let the claiming team assume his contract?

9:58
Jeff Sullivan: No, but in this hypothetical, you could definitely make the argument that he should

9:58
sonny: What are some of the things you look for in late season call ups beyond the box score or any statistical red flags-beyond K%-that indicate a player was(n’t) ready?

9:59
Jeff Sullivan: It kind of depends on the player, but I try not to be too harsh with late-season promotions getting their first taste of the bigs. It’s the end of a long season and the best competition these players have ever faced.

9:59
Jeff Sullivan: For pitchers, I love to see strikes. For hitters, I want to see a demonstration of adequate discipline

10:00
Larry: This is a silly question. How do you look up WAR on a per-game basis?

10:00
Jeff Sullivan: You don’t!

10:00
Jeff Sullivan: We don’t get defensive data on a per-game basis

10:01
JB: Jim Thome, Scott Rolen, Andruw Jones, Omar Vizquel … which one(s) are Hall of Famers in your opinion?

10:01
Jeff Sullivan: Thome and Rolen

10:01
DaveP: Is it time for the Phillies to move on from Maikel Franco?

10:02
Jeff Sullivan: He’s not really standing in anyone’s way, but there’s no reason for the Phillies to remain fully committed to him as if he’s a long-term member of the core

10:02
Zonk: Do you think the seeming inbalance in how teams value pitching vs. hitting will carry over into the offseason?

10:02
Jeff Sullivan: I think it’s mostly a midseason thing — pitcher value is elevated around the trade deadline because pitcher playing time can be more disproportionately leveraged in the playoffs

10:03
nelson: Now that the White Sox have assumed the throne as the best team in the American League, what should we expect tonight from Reynaldo Lopez?

10:03
Jeff Sullivan: Strikeouts and walks

10:03
Jim: At what point do we believe in the Corey Seager defensive metrics? last two years he has basically been top 5 by DEF.

10:03
Jeff Sullivan: I believe that Seager has been an above-average defensive SS. Open question as to how long he’ll remain such

10:04
Charlie: If Bsr includes running to first on a single or to second on a double, wouldn’t that be counting them twice if both hitting stats and baserunning stats are included in WAR?

10:04
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe I’m misunderstanding, but I don’t think BsR gives players credit for ordinary hits. It’s more about advances

10:04
Zane: If I’m not mistaken, Wilson Contreras has a hamstring injury. How much does this impact the Cubs, and, in turn, the NL Central, which now appears to actually be close?

10:05
Jeff Sullivan: The Cubs are still easily the best team over there, and I liked their Avila pickup. So I think they’ll be okay, but I’m thankful the division remains as interesting as it is

10:05
Jon: Do you think the Mariners’ 2018 (and beyond) strategy differs if they make the playoffs this year or not?

10:05
Jeff Sullivan: Not meaningfully

10:06
Zonk: What is the latest on Shohei Otani?  Isn’t it interesting that the Yankees have been acquiring IFA slots?

10:07
Jeff Sullivan: I haven’t seen any significant update. Can’t check his numbers right now with there being some kind of Baseball-Reference bug. The Yankees might be boosting their own spending capital with Otani in mind, but with how much he’ll eventually make from an MLB team, I doubt he’ll be swayed by a million dollars here or there up front

10:07
JB: Schwarber at catcher: bad idea, or the worst idea?

10:07
Jeff Sullivan: Bad idea

10:08
T: Cameron thinks there’s a better chance Stl catches up in the WC.. but Cards fans root for AZ this weekend, right?

10:10
Jeff Sullivan: Cards are one back in the division and 5.5 back in the WC. There are like seven weeks left in the season. Seems to me like the division has the clearer path, although I’ll note the Cubs and Diamondbacks are now projected to finish with almost identical records

10:10
Jeff Sullivan: I’d root for Arizona, myself, but mostly, I’d be glad that *someone* will be losing ground

10:10
Phil: Arizona just played a feisty 3 games against the Dodgers. Gotta think that LA prefers a matchup against COL no?

10:10
Jeff Sullivan: I would think so, yes, because I believe Arizona has the better baseball team

10:11
NYtoLA: What’s your read on Dom Smith?

10:11
Jeff Sullivan: Ehhh

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: I can see how he could benefit from how the ball is flying in the majors, and he’s been good at pop-up avoidance against quality competition. But I’m not sold that Smith will be anything special

10:13
Jon: Can you attribute many of Haniger’s struggles to his oblique injury? Is that something that usually lingers?

10:13
Jeff Sullivan: I think his timing got borked. His approach after coming back was really quite awful

10:13
Chet: Andrelton Simmons is a star!!

10:13
Jeff Sullivan: I hope that more people notice this. The Angels are more than one player

10:14
Pat: As a Rangers fan I am thrilled that we got Willie Calhoun, but suddenly have amassed many LH power bats with Gallo, Mazara, Odor, Calhoun, and eventually Guzman. If you were the GM, who would you keep and who would you trade for upgrades elsewhere?

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: Odor has a 68 wRC+, and Guzman has yet to see big-league competition. I wouldn’t be worried about a logjam yet

10:15
Helpful Reader: Hey when you guys go to that eclipse game don’t look right into the eclipse without protective eyewear. You’re gonna want to but don’t do it!

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: The Volcanoes are very helpfully providing special eclipse glasses to everyone in attendance!

10:15
Slugger27: whats the point of revocable waivers?

10:16
Jeff Sullivan: To facilitate trades like Jay Bruce going to Cleveland

10:17
OdoubleG: Help settle an argument between friends.  Runners on 1st and 3rd, no out, batter GIDP and a run scores.  My buddy says that the batter generated positive value from that at bat on account of getting the run home.  I say that any positive value from the play was on the account of the runner putting himself in that position and the batter actually had a negative value AB when taking into account the range of potential outcomes from that situation.  Who is right?  (nothing riding on this other than I want to hold it over his head)

10:18
Jeff Sullivan: Run expectancy of the initial situation: 1.73. Run expectancy of the resulting situation, plus the run scored: 1.11

10:18
Jeff Sullivan: In general, the batter will have done a bad thing

10:19
Jeff Sullivan: Now in very specific situations, that grounder can *help* a team win. So it’s better to look at this by win expectancy, instead of run expectancy. But it’s pretty much always a bad thing to have happen

10:19
Kim: Can you pencil Gamel in as a starting OF for the next few years with a good-ish degree of confidence?

10:19
Jeff Sullivan: Not sold on him quite yet. I don’t think he’d be a disaster, but he has a rather unpleasant combination of walks, strikeouts, and homers

10:20
Wax on…: What percentage of the Dodgers motivation for getting Darvish was to prevent a playoff opponent from having him?

10:20
Jeff Sullivan: < 1%

10:20
Jeff Sullivan: I think they just looked at their rotation and decided, welp, there’s a little too much risk in here for our own comfort

10:20
Jacob: At what point does there begin to be diminishing returns on top tier relievers?

10:21
Jeff Sullivan: Like, in the same bullpen? The return is probably diminished as quickly as going from one to two, but after like, three or four, you start to run out of high-leverage opportunities

10:21
Baseball Fan #2: You guys should record an Effectively Wild episode in the eclipse traffic

10:21
Jeff Sullivan: If I were going to be a passenger that would actually probably happen

10:22
Slugger27: how do you explain things like adam dunn 2011, bj upton in 2013, cargo this year? how does a player with a great track record just completely collapse beyond multiple standard deviations at the age of 30?

10:22
Jeff Sullivan: I think there’s frequently information we’re not privy to. I think this is true in a lot of cases where performance is way out of line with expectations

10:26
Guest: What does a George Springer extension look like?

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: It was around this point that Kyle Seager signed for seven years and $100 million, with an eighth-year option

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: Now, Seager was a year younger, but Springer is a Super Two guy, and he has what you might call “louder” skills. So maybe we’d be talking, like 6/$100m instead

10:27
Zonk: Hot enough for you in Portland?

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: Missed it all!

10:28
Jeff Sullivan: Bless you, Saber Seminar and Pitch Talks trip!

10:28
DK: Would you consider this Joey Votto’s most impressive season? Power numbers at an all time high, on base as great as ever and he’s essentially cut his strikeouts in half

10:29
Jeff Sullivan: I can buy that, yeah. Not necessarily his best season, but I could get behind calling it his most impressive, given that he’s done what he’s done at 33 years old

10:29
Jeff Sullivan: And for whatever it’s worth, Votto has completely reversed last year’s poor 1B defense. Job well done!

10:30
Porcho Villa: Article idea: I Guess Trevor Cahill Is No Longer Good

10:30
Jeff Sullivan: Shoulder injuries are a bitch

10:33
Joe: Next post-hype prospect to break out?

10:33
Jeff Sullivan: Where are we on Alex Meyer?

10:33
Jeff Sullivan: I know he’s currently hurt and I know he’s issued his walks, but I have this weird gut feeling

10:33
Trout 2.0: Player in the Minors who you think will become closest thing to Trout in career WAR

10:33
Jeff Sullivan: So, basically, best career out of everyone in the minors

10:34
Jeff Sullivan: Feel like I have to go with Guerrero. And he still won’t be Trout. Probably not close

10:34
Jimmy: Dominic Smith is just a Casey Kotchman or James Loney clone right?

10:34
Jeff Sullivan: I’m not *that* down on him, especially in this environment where everyone is home-run capable

10:35
Jeff Sullivan: Casey Kotchman could’ve potentially been a superstar in this environment for all I freakin know

10:35
Brad: 1 FAAB dollar left your last move is for ___

10:35
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know what this sentence means

10:35
Mike: Is Cano the best mega contract in recent memory?

10:36
Jeff Sullivan: Cano is barely a third of the way into it

10:36
Jeff Sullivan: The Posey contract looks really good

10:37
Jeff Sullivan: The Tigers were thrilled with the old Miguel Cabrera contract

10:37
Jeff Sullivan: I imagine right now Joey Votto has positive trade value

10:38
TF Fredrik: I tend to believe it always better to sell/trade a player too soon rather than too late. Yet it seems in sports, clubs mostly wait too late to get peak value from a player. Do you feel the same way? Is this a front office fear of breaking up a team or a large fan backlash that keeps them from this?

10:39
Jeff Sullivan: It’s simply a lot easier to tell when a player has stopped being great, when he’s already stopped being great

10:39
Jeff Sullivan: There is some inefficiency here — teams don’t act enough on selling their peak value. And in part it’s because those peak values are so hard to come by, and no team wants to deal off one of its stars. And the pushback would also be a legitimate factor; teammates and fans would be furious, because they wouldn’t understand what’s happening

10:40
FGFan: How many left fielders are better than Chris Taylor, true talent?

10:40
Jeff Sullivan: I’m not even sure Chris Taylor should be getting compared only to left fielders

10:41
Dylan: What are your thoughts on Wilmer Flores?

10:41
Jeff Sullivan: Can’t remember the last time I had one

10:41
Sonny: Ken Rosenthal tells long stories that are at no point boring. It sounds like a backhanded compliment but I mean it 100% he’s such a good writer/voice that his drawn out stories on the pod were compelling no matter how long he spoke.

10:42
Jeff Sullivan: I was so happy he was willing to give us some of his time. Ken Rosenthal is great. He’s also far, far more pleasant than he needs to be

10:42
Brian Snitker: I am apparently going to be retained.  I have made some boneheaded decisions at times, but my players love me, and the team has responded.

Do I deserve to be the manager of a team looking to exit a rebuild?

10:43
Jeff Sullivan: There’s no way for me to know the best answer here, because manager interactions are always best understood by those around the team and in the clubhouse. But at the very least, I can say the Braves aren’t that close to said competitive transition

10:43
Darryl: Where does the Dodgers MLB record 54 straight games with at least two extra based hits rank as a fun fact? It’s fun if you’re a dodger fan. Go Dodgers.

10:43
Jeff Sullivan: 6 out of 10

10:43
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe, mayyyyyyyyyyybe, 7

10:44
ChiSox2020: I’m always cautious of excess hype, but can’t help it get excited about Moncada after last couple games.

10:44
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think White Sox fans are in any position to be turning down enthusiasm

10:44
Q-Ball: If the Cubs choose to trade Kyle Schwarber this offseason, would you say that his trade value has cratered?

10:45
Jeff Sullivan: He’s been better since coming back, and he deserves these final seven weeks to perform, but, yeah, compared to last offseason, his trade value has fallen down the stairs

10:45
A cat: Can BOS win a title without a HR hitting team. They seem about 3-5 years behind the curve, very KC, SF- like.

10:45
Jeff Sullivan: So you’re saying they’re similar to the World Series-winning Royals and Giants

10:46
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: In this 1-6, 5K, HR scenario, the slash line is .167/.167/.667. That’s an OPS of .833…so I guess I see the value there.

10:46
Jeff Sullivan: It’s an above-average wOBA, by like 10 or 11 points. Some value is lost, obviously, with the lack of runner advances, but you’d also never have a double play

10:47
Spicy boy: If the tigers had offered Justin Wilson (and maybe Alex Avila if the dodgers needed him) for Austin Barnes at the deadline, who would have said no? I really want to see Barnes get a chance at an everyday job already

10:47
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think the Dodgers would do that

10:47
Matt: How much do you buy into the “Playoffs are a crapshoot”?

10:47
Jeff Sullivan: It’s always important to remember that the playoffs are *mostly* a crapshoot, but of course there are ways for a team to improve its own odds

10:47
Jeff Sullivan: Best to start from the crapshoot position, and move up slightly from there

10:48
JB: Best player who will make MLB debut in 2018?

10:48
Jeff Sullivan: Guerrero

10:48
Kevin Burke: Is any front office studying on optimal pitch ordering? Beyond the usual about “throw a curve away after inside fastball” or whatever, is anyone trying to model how to order or randomize pitches so hitters perform worse?

10:48
Jeff Sullivan: Yes

10:48
Jeff Sullivan: I’m afraid I need to get rolling a few minutes earlier than usual — need to record another podcast

10:48
Jeff Sullivan: So thank you everybody for hanging out, and I’m sorry for what I didn’t or couldn’t address. We’ll do it again next week at the same time, and until then, be well and have great days

We hoped you liked reading Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 8/11/17 by Jeff Sullivan!

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Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.

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dodgerbleu
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dodgerbleu

I can’t say it enough. I love Jeff Sullivan! And this is why!

Dylan
10:41 What are your thoughts on Wilmer Flores?
Jeff Sullivan
10:41 Can’t remember the last time I had one