Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 9/28/18

9:07

Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:07

Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:07

Jeff Sullivan: Our final Friday baseball chat of the regular season

9:08

stever20: How concerned should Red Sox fans be with Chris Sale and his velocity the other night?  Was he just holding back?

Also, do you remember a bigger x factor type of situation entering the playoffs as we have Sale this year?

9:09

Jeff Sullivan: This is what’s being referred to: http://www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.php?player=519242&b_hand=-1&gFilt=a…

9:09

Jeff Sullivan: Pretty massive drop-off since Sale came off the disabled list

9:10

Jeff Sullivan: I know there was speculation at the time that Sale wasn’t actually hurt, and that the Red Sox were just doing what they could to give him a break. This would be compelling evidence to the contrary

9:11

Jeff Sullivan: Arguably worse than the lower average velocities: the lower max velocities. During the summer, Sale was getting up to 99-100. His max velocities in four games since returning: 97, 97, 96, 95

9:12

Jeff Sullivan: It really could be that Sale is just pacing himself, conserving himself, but if that’s the case, I’m surprised he hasn’t aired it out even once. My concern here would be a 7 or 8 out of 10

9:13

Jeff Sullivan: As Patrick Corbin demonstrates, it’s possible for a pitcher to just suddenly lose velocity and still remain okay. But it is not the norm

9:13

Colonel: Can you think of any big names who might suddenly become available this winter, like the Marlins trio or Cole last winter?

9:14

Jeff Sullivan: I guess they’re not really big names yet, but the Padres will presumably have to trade an outfielder or two. There’s some talent and cost control there

9:15

Jeff Sullivan: While it’s unlikely, there’s a chance the Mariners throw in the towel and trade James Paxton

9:16

Jeff Sullivan: Mets might be convinced to move Noah Syndergaard

9:16

Jeff Sullivan: Obviously, JT Realmuto is out there

9:17

Jeff Sullivan: Lesser player here, but the Cardinals might decide to trade Jose Martinez

9:19

Syndergaardians of the Galaxy : Apologies if this is something that’s already been discussed, but I sorted the Mets by Def recently, and noticed that their top four players by this measure were starting pitchers, as was #6. So then i looked at all the other NL East teams. They weren’t as extreme as the Mets, but all had their Def leaders list similarly dominated by starting pitchers. Not nearly as bad in ths AL East, but still seemed to have starting pitchers ranked too highly. Is there something wrong with this stat?

9:20

Jeff Sullivan: That’s a function of the positional adjustment for pitchers as offensive players. It doesn’t really tell you much, but it affects NL teams more than AL teams since NL pitchers collect more plate appearances, and Def is a counting stat

9:21

Jeff Sullivan: For these purposes, you can basically ignore it. No real reason to care about pitchers as offensive players

9:22

Whitty: I’ve heard talk of how the Nats may be fine if they can’t resign Harper due to the emergence of young stars such as Soto. My question is should they even try to resign him? An OF of Soto, Robles, Eaton, and Taylor has the potential to be one of the best in the game, and they wouldn’t be hampered with a 400+ mil contract.

9:25

Jeff Sullivan: One would be right to observe that Robles is unproven, Eaton is unreliable, and Taylor is unproductive. Harper obviously would make the team better, and he’s by far the easier player to market. That being said, it all comes down to cost, and Harper’s value to the Nationals will presumably be exceeded by his value to someone else. Someone with an inferior outfield picture

9:26

Jeff Sullivan: As such, the Nationals would be smart to prepare to distribute their resources in several areas. They could use, for example, a second baseman, and more rotation help

9:26

Spicy Boy: thanks for jinxing willians astudillo. jerk

9:26

Jeff Sullivan: On the plus side, he finished 2-for-4 with 4 RBI!

9:27

Jeff Sullivan: As Astudillo creeps up on 100 plate appearances, his wRC+ sits at a healthy 143

9:27

Jeff Sullivan: He’s the best

9:28

Webolgger: Is the FanGraphs Community blog still alive?

9:29

Jeff Sullivan: Travis Sawchik had been running it, so when he took another job, the responsibility was supposed to trade hands. It looks like the transition hasn’t…yet…done anything. I’ll inquire after the chat

9:29

Jeff Sullivan: To my knowledge, the community blog hasn’t been shut down intentionally. I would assume it will come back

9:30

Calvin: Playoff odds currently have the Rockies as favorites to win the NL West, which is the first time that has happened since FG tracked the odds. Do you think this is the first time that has happened…ever?

9:31

Jeff Sullivan: Good question! The Rockies have never once won their own division

9:31

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think it ever would’ve happened in 2009

9:32

Jeff Sullivan: Mayyyyyybe 1995 — the Rockies were up a game and a half with nine games left to play

9:32

Jeff Sullivan: So if odds existed back then, the Rockies probably would’ve been the favorites for a little bit

9:32

Jeff Sullivan: …and then they finished one game out

9:34

Nicky: Am I crazy to say Ohtani is the best LHH in AL this year?

9:35

Jeff Sullivan: He very well might be the best strict lefty

9:35

Jeff Sullivan: But he’s probably not the best hitter who hits left-handed — Jose Ramirez is a switch-hitter, but when he bats lefty, he seems better than Ohtani is by a little bit

9:36

Jeff Sullivan: Granted, by wRC+, the separation is only three points in Ramirez’s favor. But the BABIP split is 105 points in Ohtani’s favor. So…

9:37

Rox Fan: Are the Rockies actually gonna win the NL West?!?

9:37

Jeff Sullivan: Almost a 2-to-1 chance the answer is yes!

9:38

Jeff Sullivan: The Rockies have the tougher final opponent, but said opponent also has little to play for, and the Rockies are at home. The Dodgers have to go on the road to face a rival that would love to destroy their chance at the playoffs entirely

9:38

Jeff Sullivan: Granted, the Dodgers are playing the Giants, and right now the Giants suck

9:39

Jeff Sullivan: 5-18 in September!

9:39

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Who handles it better: MLB re: Russell domestic violence vs. Senate Judiciary Committee re: Kavanaugh nomination?

9:40

Jeff Sullivan: Maybe Rob Manfred ought to be in charge of Supreme Court nominations

9:40

Spicy Boy: Clayton Kershaw’s fastball velo has dropped significantly, while his secondary pitches velo has remained mostly stable. He’s also throwing nearly as many sliders as fastballs. Is it possible the fastball velo drop is intentional, since fastball/slider combos play better when the velocity gap is smaller?

9:42

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think so, and here’s why — Kershaw this year hasn’t thrown a single pitch 94 miles per hour. Last year he threw 115 pitches at least 94 miles per hour

9:43

Jeff Sullivan: If a pitcher is scaling back on purpose, you’d think that every now and then, he’d air it out at 100%, maybe when he’s in a jam. It sure seems like Kershaw’s 100% these days isn’t what it was in the past

9:44

Scott: Should the Giants trade Bumgarner this offseason, or wait until the deadline next year?

9:45

Jeff Sullivan: Bumgarner is one name to add to the list above of potential trade candidates. But realistically, I think the Giants might prefer to wait until next July. For one thing, maybe they’ll want to spend the winter trying to get him extended. And for another thing, Bumgarner’s stock is down, given his career-worst peripherals. Maybe he looks better next April and May

9:48

Stevil: The new posting system takes effect in November. What kind of deal might Yusei Kikuchi be looking at if/when he’s posted?

9:48

Jeff Sullivan: I’m going to be honest — I had forgotten about the details

9:49

Jeff Sullivan: Let me pull up some statistics real quick

9:51

Jeff Sullivan: Kikuchi finished fifth in innings, and eighth in K-BB%

9:51

Jeff Sullivan: He was ninth in Japan by FIP-

9:52

Jeff Sullivan: Eighth in contact rate, and his average fastball has been around 90-92

9:53

Jeff Sullivan: He’ll be going into his age-28 season. Fastball/slider/curveball pitcher, with a show-me changeup

9:54

Jeff Sullivan: I can’t yet predict how the market is going to respond to the new posting system, but I don’t see how Kikuchi would be regarded as a potential ace. Coming into his age-29 season, Miles Mikolas was given $15.5 million over two years

9:56

Jeff Sullivan: My understanding is that, despite Mikolas’ low total MLB service, he is indeed a free agent after 2019. Given how well he did in Japan, then, his is a relevant data point here

9:56

ben: Jeff, have you boofed yet?

9:56

Jeff Sullivan: Did anyone work yesterday?

9:56

Jeff Sullivan: Literally anyone?

9:56

Scott: What’s a more desirable GM position, the Mets or the Giants?

9:57

Jeff Sullivan: Giants

9:57

Jeff Sullivan: The Mets probably have the better assortment of players, but a huge part of running a baseball team is dealing with ownership, and, well, my answer is the Giants

9:58

Lyle Overhead Bobblebay Doll: The top 9 teams in defense (per Fangraphs) are all in the NL. The bottom 9 all in the AL. Just an interesting coincidence, or does this reveal anything more/

9:59

Jeff Sullivan: When you just sort by the Def column, NL teams are given credit for the positional adjustment given to pitchers as hitters, and AL teams are given the penalty for the positional adjustment given to the DH

9:59

Jeff Sullivan: When you want to know about team defense, it’s better to just click on the other Defense tab and look at UZR and DRS

10:00

Alex is beyond crazy: El Capitan free solo.  The actual climb obviously happened a little while ago, but I just saw the movie trailer and it gave me goosebumps.

10:00

Jeff Sullivan: There are certain climbing and mountaineering achievements that make my hands sweaty when I’m just watching them on the internet. After the fact, when I know full well that nobody dies

10:01

Jeff Sullivan: This is how I know that I am a coward

10:01

Jeff Sullivan: (Can’t wait to see this movie)

10:01

Jeff Sullivan: (and probably throw up during it)

10:02

Syndergaardians of the Galaxy : Is there a stat that measures the quality of the starting pitchers that a starting pitcher has faced? Like maybe an average of their fWAR/100 inning or an average of their game scores or something? A friend of mine argues that the reason the Mets have scored so little for deGrom is because he’s always facing the other team’s ace, but I’ve seen almost every deGrom start, and I don’t feel like he’s been opposed by that many aces.

10:02

Jeff Sullivan: Nothing to my knowledge!

10:03

Jeff Sullivan: And my hunch would be that, yeah, there’s nothing there

10:05

Jeff Sullivan: Although we could investigate the identities of the pitchers that deGrom has faced this year as a pitcher

10:07

Jeff Sullivan: Those pitchers have an average ERA- of 100, and an average FIP- of 102

10:07

Jeff Sullivan: So, yeah, no

10:08

Jeff Sullivan: Basically, if I had to turn a phrase: it’s the Mets, stupid

10:08

vivalajeter: I’m running behind on podcasts after breaking my phone, but just getting around to the podcast from last week with Michael Schwimer.  Just want to say that it’s outstanding, halfway through!

10:08

Jeff Sullivan: We have received a lot of feedback for that episode

10:08

Jeff Sullivan: Much of it from people in the game

10:08

Jeff Sullivan: Much of it negative

10:08

Jeff Sullivan: Take that for whatever it’s worth

10:09

Jeff Sullivan: Schwimer is a divisive guy

10:09

Scott: Where do the Mariners go from here? Tear it down and try to rebuild, or give it one last shot with their aging core?

10:10

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think it’s even really up to the Mariners, as it were — I’m pretty sure there’s an ownership mandate to try to make the playoffs

10:10

Jeff Sullivan: It helps that the Mariners have a decent amount of club control on the roster. They’re not going to be devastated by free agency. But clearly, they need a lot of help, help the farm system cannot provide

10:11

Jeff Sullivan: They’re in a greatly unenviable spot

10:12

Gunshy Whip CoinStar: What’s your take on Tyler White’s future? Was cool to see his success with two strikes in Craig Edwards’ piece.

10:13

Jeff Sullivan: Above-average hitter who’s overachieving. Not an asset in the field or on the bases. There are worse starting first basemen in baseball, but given that White is already almost 28, I think he needs to get a shot *now*

10:13

Jeff Sullivan: Put him on the Rockies!

10:14

tim: What is jacob degrom’s second half war?

10:14

Jeff Sullivan: 4.5 by regular WAR, 3.8 by RA9-WAR

10:14

Jeff Sullivan: I like when the questions are easy to answer

10:15

Stevil: Should the Diamondbacks extend the QO to Pollock if an extension can’t be made relatively soon?

10:16

Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, even with the second-half decline, I’d still be okay with paying Pollock like $18 million for a year

10:17

Jeff Sullivan: Good player, still a rangy CF. Little harm

10:18

Dave: Who do you think has the best playoff rotation in the NL? Dodgers have Kershaw & Buehler, but the Cubs starters have put it together over the last month.

10:19

Jeff Sullivan: Even over the past month, the Cubs and Dodgers are basically tied in rotation ERA- and FIP-, and the Dodgers have a huge edge in xFIP-

10:19

Jeff Sullivan: And, of course, over the full season, the Dodgers look much better

10:19

Jeff Sullivan: I give the Dodgers the advantage, if, that is, they make it into the playoffs at all

10:20

Dustin: Will the Braves win another game in 2018?

10:20

Jeff Sullivan: Yes

10:21

Scott: The Angels seemed to make good moves last offseason and still finished nowhere close to the playoffs. Can they make themselves contenders this offseason?

10:22

Jeff Sullivan: I think the Angels knew all along it was going to come down to pitching health. Heaney basically stayed healthy, but everyone else ran into something. And now they know for a fact that Ohtani won’t throw a pitch in 2019

10:22

Jeff Sullivan: Best-case scenario, to me, is that they end up with something like a true-talent .500 ballclub. And then you hope for a little luck and a WC spot

10:23

Jeff Sullivan: At least, for them, the farm is quickly improving. Could be a real club again in 2020

10:24

squeeze bunt: Do you think arm injuries could have a quadratic or even s-curve relationship with use?  So as a pitcher throws more pitches there is a point where risk of injuries tapers off for a while, then starts to rise again.

10:24

Jeff Sullivan: I have absolutely no idea

10:24

Jeff Sullivan: I would assume, most simply, that every single pitch thrown increases injury risk by some very small amount

10:25

Jeff Sullivan: But I can’t prove that. And there’s only really injury risk if you’re throwing at 100%. At, like, 75%, you might get sore the next day, but you’re not shredding your tissue

10:26

Lyle Overhead Bobblebay Doll: I’m guessing most stat-y baseball fans and analysts would be excellent front office people if they time travelled to something like 1970 with the information we have in 2018. But how do you think you would do in, like, 2005-2008?

10:26

Jeff Sullivan: Would still do well in that window

10:26

Jeff Sullivan: Gets a lot more difficult after like 2010 or thereabouts

10:27

Jeff Sullivan: Going back 10 or 15 years, you’d be able to better understand expected statistics, surplus value, etc

10:28

Jeff Sullivan: I could’ve built an awesome baseball team :(

10:29

Joey: Is Nick Pivetta going to pitch to his great peripherals next season?

10:30

Jeff Sullivan: Pivetta ranks in the 76th percentile in expected wOBA allowed

10:30

Jeff Sullivan: He ranks in the 36th percentile in actual wOBA allowed

10:30

Jeff Sullivan: There might be something to be said about his performance with runners on base, but, mostly, I think he just got hurt by the Phillies’ dreadful team defense

10:31

Jeff Sullivan: He wasn’t great out of the stretch in 2017, though. So you can’t put it all on balls just dropping in

10:33

Tom: Regardless of how their season ends, what should the Cardinals do in the offseason? Keep searching for a middle of the order bat? Or go all in on run prevention and go for pitching and defense?

10:35

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think the lineup projects to be much of a problem. Maybe the offense could use a little tweaking, but this team needs a bullpen. Now, perhaps the Cardinals figure they can improve the bullpen internally. Bullpens, as you know, are virtually impossible to predict. But that’s been the great weakness this season. And I still don’t entirely trust Jordan Hicks

10:35

Ben: Willians Astudillo….does he make his first all-star team next year or in 2020?

10:35

Jeff Sullivan: I expect that they’re going to name the All-Star Game after him

10:36

Raymond: How much is Rizzo’s horrendous April weighing down his season stats? Seems like hes been mostly back to form from May on. Do you think hes declining?

10:36

Jeff Sullivan: Rizzo has been great pretty much ever since. Not coincidentally, in April, he was dealing with a back issue

10:36

Jeff Sullivan: Now, on the one hand, you could say that injury problems tend not to get better as players age. But Rizzo only recently turned 29 years old, and I’m not yet worried about his skills when he’s at or near 100%

10:37

O’Brien: Can German Marquez be a top 15 SP next year?

10:37

Jeff Sullivan: Right now, he happens to rank 12th among major-league pitchers in WAR

10:38

Jeff Sullivan: He ranks 20th in RA9-WAR

10:38

Jeff Sullivan: So the answer is a definite yes

10:38

Jeff Sullivan: Related question: Will German Marquez be recognized and appreciated as a top-15 SP next year?

10:38

Jeff Sullivan: Almost certainly not

10:39

squeeze bunt: What would it take to for the Padres get de Grom and/or Thor from the Mets?  I generally think these type of questios are fun, but I think it’s useful to put actual prospect value with highly valued MLB assets.  Thanks!

10:39

Jeff Sullivan: Let’s just dismiss entirely right now the possibility of getting deGrom *and* Syndergaard

10:39

Jeff Sullivan: Let’s focus just on the latter

10:41

Jeff Sullivan: Syndergaard has three years of club control left. They’re all arb years, and he already went to arb once as a super-two player

10:42

Jeff Sullivan: One way this doesn’t exactly match up: the Padres could move a young outfielder already in the bigs, but the Mets have Nimmo, Conforto, and Cespedes, to say nothing of Bruce and Lagares

10:44

Jeff Sullivan: Chris Archer was recently traded with 3+ years remaining of club control

10:45

Jeff Sullivan: I think that was generally regarded as a major win for the Rays, but it’s a worthwhile case. Archer has questions about his ERA. Syndergaard has questions about his health

10:48

Jeff Sullivan: I’m going to start by volunteering…Chris Paddack, Austin Hedges, and Anderson Espinoza

10:48

Jeff Sullivan: Lots to quibble with! But I think it’s reasonable. And these things are tough to imagine on the fly

10:49

Jeff Sullivan: Here’s how Paddack and Espinoza currently rank among Padres prospects https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2018-in-season-prospect-…

10:49

Tommy Pham: Will I keep up this type of performance in 2019?

10:49

Jeff Sullivan: Since getting traded to the Rays, Pham has put up a 191 wRC+ in 160 plate appearances

10:50

Jeff Sullivan: His BABIP over the same span of time has been a comical .442, granted

10:50

Jeff Sullivan: But the power is real. Pham’s a really good player. The Rays made a smart gamble, and Pham could and should be the best position player they’ve got in 2019

10:51

Jeff Sullivan: Let’s hear it for xwOBA!

10:51

Anthony: How would you deploy the Yankee pitching staff in the AL Wild Card Game if you were Aaron Boone?

10:53

Jeff Sullivan: Severino for at least one turn. Maybe let him finish the third or fourth, depending on circumstances. And then you bullpen it. No team is better equipped to do so than the Yankees

10:54

Dale: Will Max Muncy and Jesus Aguilar backslide hard next season?

10:54

Jeff Sullivan: You could argue they already have. Aguilar’s second-half wRC+ is 99. Muncy’s is a still-terrific 139, but his strikeout rate has gone up ten points

10:55

Jeff Sullivan: Granted, Muncy is also tenth in baseball in expected wOBA. Tenth, out of everyone with at least 250 plate appearances. So while I think a certain amount of regression is right to factor in, as pitchers learn about weaknesses, Muncy has demonstrated to me that he’s legitimately good

10:57

vivalajeter: Now that deGrom has tied Nola in bWAR, do you think there will be people pushing for Nola to win the CY award?  It seems like some people anchor to their position in August, and don’t adjust even though deGrom has been lights out every 5 days while Scherzer and Nola have added a couple clunkers (relatively speaking).

10:58

Jeff Sullivan: At Baseball Reference, Nola is given a laughably huge boost on account of the Phillies’ bad team defense. The Phillies do have a bad team defense, but Nola himself has a .254 BABIP. He’s been hurt by far the least out of all the regular Phillies pitchers

10:59

Jeff Sullivan: I can’t think of a single reason to vote for Aaron Nola that Jacob deGrom doesn’t have over him

10:59

Jeff Sullivan: As good as Nola has truly been, deGrom has just been…better. Everywhere. In virtually every statistic

10:59

Jeff Sullivan: deGrom is taking the Cy Young. MVP is the real question

11:01

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: CC throws highly dangerous object at innocent backup catcher, grabs crotch, uses language counterproductive to the league’s efforts to be more inclusive, and is lauded for protecting his guys. It continues to be a terrible look for the league, particularly in today’s social climate. Someone do something already. MLB, take a stand against the toxic culture that pervades your clubhouses. Union, maybe think about stopping your members from trying to maim each other. (Obviously Kittridge is terrible too, but no one is calling him a hero.)

11:02

Jeff Sullivan: I’m not sure it’s even possible to begin to separate overaggressive masculinity from professional sports. These are players selected in large part for their competitiveness. With rare exception, these people assume an on-field demeanor that has few parallels in ordinary life

11:03

Jeff Sullivan: And honestly, I think by and large the audience finds displays of emotion appealing

11:04

Jeff Sullivan: Even when they’re stupid, or arguably offensive

11:05

Jeff Sullivan: I think the most you can ask for is to try to limit the injuries that happen as a consequence of these incidents. Limit the injuries and limit the hate speech. Players shouldn’t be allowed to throw at one another so often, but I don’t know what you can do about a crotch grab. Or at least about the sentiment behind it

11:06

Paul: I can’t help but look at the Yankees RH-dominant lineup (Judge, Stanton, Torres, Andujar, Sanchez, and the almighty Luke Voit) vs a LHP-dominant Sox rotation (Sale, Price, Rodriguez) and think the Yankees are a major threat to the Red Sox being the 2001 Mariners

11:07

Jeff Sullivan: The Yankees have to get through Oakland first

11:08

Jeff Sullivan: Oakland, with a right-handed Cahill, a right-handed Fiers, a right-handed Treinen, a right-handed Trivino, a right-handed Rodney, a right-handed Familia, a right-handed Kelley, a right-handed Petit, a right-handed Pagan…

11:09

Jeff Sullivan: The A’s match up well with the Yankees, for a team without a starting rotation

11:09

Jeff Sullivan: So worry about that game first

11:10

Theo Maddon: Hey Jeff.  Is one season a big enough sample to fairly judge a hitting coach?  Under Chili Davis, the Cubs have seen a dramatic drop in slugging and small drop in OBP, resulting in an overall OPS drop of about 30 points.  Any thoughts?

11:10

Jeff Sullivan: Last season, Cubs non-pitchers combined to post a team wRC+ of 108

11:10

Jeff Sullivan: This season, Cubs non-pitchers have combined to post a team wRC+ of 108

11:11

Jeff Sullivan: League OPS overall dropped 22 points between 2017 – 2018, because the ball hasn’t flown the same way

11:11

Jeff Sullivan: All right, I need to get rolling

11:12

Jeff Sullivan: So thank you everybody for hanging out, and I’m sorry for what I didn’t or couldn’t address. We’ll do…something next week. Friday’s going to have four baseball games. So expect some manner of live chat! Until then, be well and have great days

We hoped you liked reading Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 9/28/18 by Jeff Sullivan!

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Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.

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Ryan13636
Member
Ryan13636

The Rockies are actually competitive with any other NL playoff rotation this season with Freeland,Marquez and Gray.

stever20
Member
Member
stever20

maybe with Freeland and Marquez, but Gray? He of the last 9 starts having a 5.36 ERA and 6.30 FIP? Yeah, not so much at all. And that’s WITH a good start the last time out.

Ryan13636
Member
Ryan13636

Clearly the #3, and he did have a good start last time out. Gray is at least competitive with nearly any third starter, even if he is coming out of a rough stretch.

There are not any dominant NL playoff rotations.

stever20
Member
Member
stever20

I’d take Ryu over him easily right now. Also Jon Lester- who in his last 9 starts has a 3.00 ERA/3.27 FIP(and to think I’m not really playing with numbers- his 1st start in that was a brutal 8 ER in 3.2 innings with a 19.64 ERA/11.88 FIP- take that out and it’s 1.71 ERA/2.61 FIP.

So no, I wouldn’t say Gray is all that competitive with some of the other 3’s. Maybe with Milwaukee and Atlanta- but there again- those aren’t exactly great rotations.

Ryan13636
Member
Ryan13636

Chicago has not had two starters better than Lester. Have to love the way that Rockies hitters stats don’t count, but their pitchers don’t get nearly as much extra credit.

stever20
Member
Member
stever20

Hamels and Hendricks.

since all star break-
Marquez 2.55 ERA/2.04 FIP 3.6 WAR
Freeland 2.45 ERA/3.16 FIP(before today) 2.3 WAR
Gray 4.18 ERA/5.40 FIP 0.1 WAR

Hendricks 2.90 ERA/2.67 FIP(before today) 2.4 WAR
Hamels 2.47 ERA/3.50 FIP 1.3 WAR
Lester 4.50 ERA/4.44 FIP 0.6 WAR
Quintana 4.27 ERA/4.33 FIP 0.7 WAR

so Gray would be at best the 7th best starter in the series. You can make the case that Senzatela would be a better option for a 3rd starter- since the break he’s got a 3.90 ERA/4.14 FIP- with 1.0 WAR.

and yeah- that may be vs Cubs… but look at the Dodgers….
Buehler 2.21 ERA/2.95 FIP 1.8 WAR
Kershaw 2.34 ERA/3.28 FIP 1.7 WAR
Ryu 1.93 ERA/2.60 FIP 1.5 WAR
Hill 3.33 ERA/3.48 FIP 1.5 WAR

That’s no question 1-4 better than the Rockies.

stever20
Member
Member
stever20

You were saying about Gray? He’s now got a 6.03 ERA in his last 10 starts with a FIP that matches.