Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 9/28/18

September 28, 2018

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Our final Friday baseball chat of the regular season

9:08	stever20: How concerned should Red Sox fans be with Chris Sale and his velocity the other night? Was he just holding back? Also, do you remember a bigger x factor type of situation entering the playoffs as we have Sale this year?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: This is what’s being referred to: http://www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.php?player=519242&b_hand=-1&gFilt=a…

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Pretty massive drop-off since Sale came off the disabled list

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: I know there was speculation at the time that Sale wasn’t actually hurt, and that the Red Sox were just doing what they could to give him a break. This would be compelling evidence to the contrary

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Arguably worse than the lower average velocities: the lower max velocities. During the summer, Sale was getting up to 99-100. His max velocities in four games since returning: 97, 97, 96, 95

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: It really could be that Sale is just pacing himself, conserving himself, but if that’s the case, I’m surprised he hasn’t aired it out even once. My concern here would be a 7 or 8 out of 10

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: As Patrick Corbin demonstrates, it’s possible for a pitcher to just suddenly lose velocity and still remain okay. But it is not the norm

9:13	Colonel: Can you think of any big names who might suddenly become available this winter, like the Marlins trio or Cole last winter?

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: I guess they’re not really big names yet, but the Padres will presumably have to trade an outfielder or two. There’s some talent and cost control there

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: While it’s unlikely, there’s a chance the Mariners throw in the towel and trade James Paxton

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: Mets might be convinced to move Noah Syndergaard

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: Obviously, JT Realmuto is out there

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: Lesser player here, but the Cardinals might decide to trade Jose Martinez

9:19

Syndergaardians of the Galaxy : Apologies if this is something that’s already been discussed, but I sorted the Mets by Def recently, and noticed that their top four players by this measure were starting pitchers, as was #6. So then i looked at all the other NL East teams. They weren’t as extreme as the Mets, but all had their Def leaders list similarly dominated by starting pitchers. Not nearly as bad in ths AL East, but still seemed to have starting pitchers ranked too highly. Is there something wrong with this stat?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: That’s a function of the positional adjustment for pitchers as offensive players. It doesn’t really tell you much, but it affects NL teams more than AL teams since NL pitchers collect more plate appearances, and Def is a counting stat

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: For these purposes, you can basically ignore it. No real reason to care about pitchers as offensive players

9:22

Whitty: I’ve heard talk of how the Nats may be fine if they can’t resign Harper due to the emergence of young stars such as Soto. My question is should they even try to resign him? An OF of Soto, Robles, Eaton, and Taylor has the potential to be one of the best in the game, and they wouldn’t be hampered with a 400+ mil contract.

9:25

Jeff Sullivan: One would be right to observe that Robles is unproven, Eaton is unreliable, and Taylor is unproductive. Harper obviously would make the team better, and he’s by far the easier player to market. That being said, it all comes down to cost, and Harper’s value to the Nationals will presumably be exceeded by his value to someone else. Someone with an inferior outfield picture

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: As such, the Nationals would be smart to prepare to distribute their resources in several areas. They could use, for example, a second baseman, and more rotation help

9:26	Spicy Boy: thanks for jinxing willians astudillo. jerk

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: On the plus side, he finished 2-for-4 with 4 RBI!

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: As Astudillo creeps up on 100 plate appearances, his wRC+ sits at a healthy 143

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: He’s the best

9:28	Webolgger: Is the FanGraphs Community blog still alive?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: Travis Sawchik had been running it, so when he took another job, the responsibility was supposed to trade hands. It looks like the transition hasn’t…yet…done anything. I’ll inquire after the chat

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: To my knowledge, the community blog hasn’t been shut down intentionally. I would assume it will come back

9:30	Calvin: Playoff odds currently have the Rockies as favorites to win the NL West, which is the first time that has happened since FG tracked the odds. Do you think this is the first time that has happened…ever?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Good question! The Rockies have never once won their own division

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think it ever would’ve happened in 2009

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: Mayyyyyybe 1995 — the Rockies were up a game and a half with nine games left to play

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: So if odds existed back then, the Rockies probably would’ve been the favorites for a little bit

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: …and then they finished one game out

9:34	Nicky: Am I crazy to say Ohtani is the best LHH in AL this year?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: He very well might be the best strict lefty

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: But he’s probably not the best hitter who hits left-handed — Jose Ramirez is a switch-hitter, but when he bats lefty, he seems better than Ohtani is by a little bit

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Granted, by wRC+, the separation is only three points in Ramirez’s favor. But the BABIP split is 105 points in Ohtani’s favor. So…

9:37	Rox Fan: Are the Rockies actually gonna win the NL West?!?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Almost a 2-to-1 chance the answer is yes!

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: The Rockies have the tougher final opponent, but said opponent also has little to play for, and the Rockies are at home. The Dodgers have to go on the road to face a rival that would love to destroy their chance at the playoffs entirely

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: Granted, the Dodgers are playing the Giants, and right now the Giants suck

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: 5-18 in September!

9:39	Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Who handles it better: MLB re: Russell domestic violence vs. Senate Judiciary Committee re: Kavanaugh nomination?

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe Rob Manfred ought to be in charge of Supreme Court nominations

9:40

Spicy Boy: Clayton Kershaw’s fastball velo has dropped significantly, while his secondary pitches velo has remained mostly stable. He’s also throwing nearly as many sliders as fastballs. Is it possible the fastball velo drop is intentional, since fastball/slider combos play better when the velocity gap is smaller?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think so, and here’s why — Kershaw this year hasn’t thrown a single pitch 94 miles per hour. Last year he threw 115 pitches at least 94 miles per hour

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: If a pitcher is scaling back on purpose, you’d think that every now and then, he’d air it out at 100%, maybe when he’s in a jam. It sure seems like Kershaw’s 100% these days isn’t what it was in the past

9:44	Scott: Should the Giants trade Bumgarner this offseason, or wait until the deadline next year?

9:45

Jeff Sullivan: Bumgarner is one name to add to the list above of potential trade candidates. But realistically, I think the Giants might prefer to wait until next July. For one thing, maybe they’ll want to spend the winter trying to get him extended. And for another thing, Bumgarner’s stock is down, given his career-worst peripherals. Maybe he looks better next April and May

9:48	Stevil: The new posting system takes effect in November. What kind of deal might Yusei Kikuchi be looking at if/when he’s posted?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: I’m going to be honest — I had forgotten about the details

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: Here’s a summary: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/12/mlb-ratifies-new-npb-posting-sy…

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Let me pull up some statistics real quick

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Kikuchi finished fifth in innings, and eighth in K-BB%

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: He was ninth in Japan by FIP-

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Eighth in contact rate, and his average fastball has been around 90-92

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: He’ll be going into his age-28 season. Fastball/slider/curveball pitcher, with a show-me changeup

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: I can’t yet predict how the market is going to respond to the new posting system, but I don’t see how Kikuchi would be regarded as a potential ace. Coming into his age-29 season, Miles Mikolas was given $15.5 million over two years

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: My understanding is that, despite Mikolas’ low total MLB service, he is indeed a free agent after 2019. Given how well he did in Japan, then, his is a relevant data point here

9:56	ben: Jeff, have you boofed yet?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: Did anyone work yesterday?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: Literally anyone?

9:56	Scott: What’s a more desirable GM position, the Mets or the Giants?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: Giants

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: The Mets probably have the better assortment of players, but a huge part of running a baseball team is dealing with ownership, and, well, my answer is the Giants

9:58	Lyle Overhead Bobblebay Doll: The top 9 teams in defense (per Fangraphs) are all in the NL. The bottom 9 all in the AL. Just an interesting coincidence, or does this reveal anything more/

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: When you just sort by the Def column, NL teams are given credit for the positional adjustment given to pitchers as hitters, and AL teams are given the penalty for the positional adjustment given to the DH

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: When you want to know about team defense, it’s better to just click on the other Defense tab and look at UZR and DRS