Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 9/1/17

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Been a while since Bork 🙁

9:07	Zonk: Javy Baez has 13 Intentional BBs, and only 11 earned BBs. Has any qualified batter ever finished a season with more IBBs than regular BBs? I am guessing the answer is no….

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: To the query machine!

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Baez would stand to be the first since Vladimir Guerrero in 2006

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: 27 seasons qualify since 1968. Hell, even Barry Bonds technically had more intentional walks than other walks in 2004!

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Obviously, many of those were unintentional intentional walks. But anyway

9:10	PTBNL: CC Sabathia is: A) Completely justified in his criticism of the Boston Red Sox B) A whiney cry-baby who should probably just shut up and pitch

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: He has every right to be annoyed, but some of those annoyances shouldn’t be shared with the public

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: Sabathia can think the Red Sox are weak for bunting but he should keep that to himself. Because it’s irrational. Even he would understand, when cooler heads prevail, that the point is to win the game. Sabathia would presumably bunt against Sabathia, given the chance

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Fun fact: this year, according to DRS, Sabathia’s defense is actually +1!

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Brett Cecil, of all pitchers, leads the majors in bunt hits allowed, with five

9:14	PF: I saw an article by Travis in The Athletic yesterday…. Does he write for them now as well?

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: He’s been doing that for a while, actually

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Where he finds the time, I’m not entirely sure, but The Athletic has been a side commitment for him for…months?

9:15	Hal: Since you wrote that Hoskins hasn’t homered off a legit big league pitcher last week, he’s hit dingers off Koji Uehara, Hendricks, and Quintana. I don’t have a question here, just picture me doing the DX crotch chop aggressively in your general direction

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: It’s true! That has happened!

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: He also has an active 13-game hitting streak

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: Even less reason to be skeptical about him now than before

9:16	Lfietime Tigers Fan: So it goes.

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: I’m sure this is a pretty empty feeling

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: I used to find it unimaginable that the Mariners would ever trade Felix Hernandez

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know how I would’ve handled it if that happened

9:18	Sean: Who is your pick, right now, to win NL MVP?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Probably Stanton, but the race is tight enough that it could go in one of like four or five directions these last few weeks

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: Rendon deserves far more consideration than he’s ever going to get

9:19	PF: Journalistic thoughts on Ken Rosenthal joining The Athletic?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: He wanted somewhere to write. Doesn’t get much purer than The Athletic right now. Plenty of people ripping him for going behind a paywall, but I doubt those people realize what they’re actually saying

9:20	PTBNL: Which September call-up are you most looking forward to?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: None yet. I’ll pick my favorites when I’ve been given some reasons

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: at the major-league level, that is

9:21	BJOGC: In markets with more than one team, why is anybody a fan of the “bad” team? Like, why be a Mets fan on purpose when you have options?

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: No fan feels like he or she actually has the option to switch

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: I mean, if it’s just a casual pursuit, then, sure, watch something else. But when the loyalty runs deeper, it’s too deep to shift on a whim

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Also worth noting that the depths of despair make the highs feel higher

9:23	Matt: I don’t expect a sweep, but if there’s a sweep, the Yanks are 1.5 games back of the division. 3.5 if they split. The division is still within reach, no?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Yes, but the Red Sox are better

9:24	Vlad’s Dad: I am doing some research that involves comparing values of batters and pitchers. I was looking to use WAR/600 or WAR/G for the batters and was wondering what the best equivalent is for pitchers? Any thoughts?

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: Probably something like WAR/180 innings or thereabouts

9:24	Q-Ball: Did the Astros err, in your opinion, by staying pat at the deadline, then giving up a decent prospect haul for Verlander? Should they have topped the offer for Gray? Or maybe they didn’t like him?

9:25

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think Gray would’ve been the right kind of fit. And my own opinion leans conservative — I’m not a huge fan of big splashes. But in reality, the Astros have more question marks now than they did, and Verlander has fewer than *he* did. So while I don’t think this move was necessary, I get why the Astros felt compelled

9:26	Daniel: The Marlins haven’t won a game since you wrote about them on Monday. Do you at all feel personally responsible for that?

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: Losing to the Nationals, I get. Losing to the Phillies? Don’t lose to the Phillies.

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: But while the Marlins faded instantly, at least we still have the Brewers to watch

9:27	ryan: does the return for brandon phillips seem light to you, or is this about the best the braves could have hoped for?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: What do you think a team deserves to get for one month of a 36-year-old Brandon Phillips?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: I get that maybe you’d prefer some low-level flier, but this is effectively going to work out the same

9:28	PF: When do we see a player better then Trout? 10 years? 20? Ever?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Like, better than Trout at the time, or better than the Trout of today?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: Presuming you mean the latter, I’ll say we’ll see maybe one of those guys in the next couple decades

9:29	PTBNL: Are the Angels now the favorites for the second wild card spot?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: I think with so little time left, you have to give the edge to the team with the 1.5-game lead. Especially since the Twins play the Tigers another seven times, and they just got a lot weaker

9:30	tonyc: JV to Houston and McCullers returning soon means… what? Six-man rotation with Peacock to the pen? Peacock and Fiers to the pen?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Going to be a lot of September mixing and matching and spots skipped. All in the name of rest and preservation. Come playoff time, it’ll be Verlander, Keuchel, and a grab bag

9:32	Olly: Wil Myers went from a +4 WAR breakout to barely a replacement player. What happened and can he get back?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Remember that, even last year, Myers had almost all of his value in the first half. 92 second-half wRC+

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think he’s dropped off that much in terms of his skills — that is, I don’t think he’s suddenly gotten four wins worse. Some of this is just noise. But I don’t think of Myers as being a really strong core asset

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: His launch angle this year has spiked — it’s possible he made his swing a hair or two more exploitable

9:34	PF: How good can Vlad. Jr become? Trout Harper Correa level?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Okay, so, on the one hand, don’t expect that. Never expect that. On the other hand, I don’t think there’s a player in the minors with a higher ceiling. Elite is most certainly within Guerrero’s feasible reach

9:36	Joey: If the Tigers get close to their asking price, should they pull the trigger and go all in on the rebuild and trade Fulmer this winter?

9:37

Jeff Sullivan: If the demand is out there, sure, they could try to market him as a more cost-controlled Sonny Gray. Fulmer is in one of those situations where you don’t know if he’ll still be good and healthy next time the Tigers are decent. But because he has so much control left, there’s no urgency; he could be flipped next deadline, or the offseason after

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: But right now, basically, no one at the major-league level is too important to trade

9:38	PTBNL: With Pedroia back, how should the Red Sox juggle their infield? Seems like there aren’t enough PA to go around for Hanley, Moreland, Pedroia, Bogaerts, Nunez, Devers.

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: Thankfully, neither Hanley nor Moreland are particularly good

9:39	PF: Who’s the most statistically unique player in the Major Leagues right now?

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: Might be Billy Hamilton, might be Joey Votto. Hard to know off the top of my head, but I bet there would be some pretty simple math one could attempt

9:40	Zock Jr.: Craziest August deadline I can remember.

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: Not the relaxing Thursday night I had planned for myself

9:41	ryan: if the orioles decided to trade machado this offseason, what could a potential return look like? 3 top 100 guys with one in the top 20?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Going to be hard-pressed to get the kind of massive haul you’d like when you’re talking about a player with one remaining control year

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Teams just don’t give up that much talent for rentals. Now, few rentals would be better than Machado, who is great and who will dramatically outplay his Arb3 salary. But you’re looking at a probable package with one premium prospect and some filler gambles

9:44	J: Rank: Houston, Boston, Cleveland

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Astros, Indians, Red Sox

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: All of them are great

9:44	Orange Whips: What should the Twins do? Their core of Buxton/Sano/Berrios looks solid enough, but they desperately need pitching. Should they be in on the big name FAs this offseason?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: No

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: Buying big-name free agents is frequently a bad idea. Especially when you’re a team that doesn’t spend that much. Can’t afford to give that much payroll space to market-rate players

9:47	Oscar O’Bannon: You may have Willson Contreras or Gary Sanchez right now. Who are you picking and why?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: Sanchez, because he is better

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: I will note that, according to the numbers at Baseball Prospectus for this season, Sanchez has a 20-run edge in pitch-framing

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: Good luck making up for that somewhere else

9:48	Zock Jr.: How long do you think until the tigers are back in contention? I need to pacify my Detroit-born father.

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: Talk to him about literally anything else for the next, oh, four or five years

9:48	PTBNL: Obviously you don’t have a crystal ball, but what do you figure the odds are that Upton opts out? Can’t imagine he’d get more than his current deal, given the contracts handed out last season to aging power hitters (EE, Bautista, Trumbo, etc.)

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Right now, going to say 60%. I don’t think he can do much better, either, but there’s a chance, and players just like the freedom of the market

9:50	Wily Mo’s ghost: Have you been surprised at what Fister has done since being called up? Even if he goes back to being crap from now on, safe to say the Sox are

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Fister still hasn’t been good, but he’s been useful, and it’s worth noting he’s picked up a mile or two of velocity that he had previously lost

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: It’s made him a little more difficult to hit. Not a playoff pitcher, but a reasonable regular-season placeholder

9:52	Fellow Sens Fan: Who’s the Erik Karlsson of baseball?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Corey Seager

9:52	PTBNL: Jeff, how’s it going? Any big plans for Labor Day weekend?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: https://www.fs.usda.gov/recarea/giffordpinchot/recarea/?recid=79414

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Going to be crowded, but this trip is long overdue

9:53	TKDC: Is anyone on the Yankees going to tell Sabathia how much of a baby he is being?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: No

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: That’s not how teams work

9:53	Kyle: Thank you for being a friend, Jeff

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Thank you for being a friend, Kyle

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: You should come to my birthday

9:54	JC: How much of an outlier is Gio Gonzalez to have a >3 difference between his bWAR and fWAR?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: So Gio Gonzalez has a 3.0 WAR and a 6.3 RA9-WAR

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: (which is basically the same as bWAR)

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: The difference is listed on his FanGraphs player page as FDP-Wins

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7448&position=P#value

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Interestingly, if you click that link, you see that Gonzalez was going in the other direction the previous two years

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Anyhow, let’s examine the last two decades

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: There have been four seasons with an FDP-Wins of 4+, the most recent being Zack Greinke’s 2015

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: 18 seasons with an FDP-Wins of 3+. So basically once a year, on average, this happens

9:57	Dave Cameronaunepetitegraine: For a Sept playoff push, would you rather have an Ace go 5 Starts, 40 innings with an ERA of 1.00 or a Slugger go full August Stanton?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: Might be the wrong answer but I’ll take the full August Stanton. More even distribution of help

9:58	Wily Mo’s ghost: How many teams do you think will be interested in Nuñez this winter, and what kind of role might they imagine for him? He doesn’t look quite like the 1.1-win player Steamer projected for this year.

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: Lots of teams are going to be in the mix. He’s basically proven over the past 1000 PA or so that he’s a fine hitter, and he can run the bases while playing a variety of positions. Every team would have a use for a player like this