Kiley McDaniel Chat – 4/11/18

12:08

Kiley McDaniel: Hello fellow humans lets chat baseball

12:08

Tommy N.: Any thoughts on Lucchesi’s first few mlb starts?

12:08

Matt: Joey Lucchesi: Is he good? Think he can stick in a major league rotation?

12:09

Kiley McDaniel: Didn’t watch any of his MLB starts yet but saw him as an amateur and it’s basically the same: solid average stuff, above feel/command and tons of funk/deception. That normally plays up first time through the league them plays medium for a bit them plays down, but the down part sometimes takes a few years.

12:10

Kiley McDaniel: We were the high guys on Lucchesi, made him an other 50 FV on the top 100 here: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-top-100-prospects/

12:10

Kiley McDaniel: So he was something like 115-135 overall for us before the season started. So he’s something like a ready-made fourth starter, may be a little better than that for stretches, like right now.

12:11

Mike: Talk to me about Cubs prospects. All of them.

12:11

Kiley McDaniel: Here’s the list and Caratini just graduated: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-22-prospects-chicago-cubs/

12:11

Kyle: Any thoughts on Bren Spillane from Illinois. He has been putting up monster numbers. Does he have any draft stock?

12:12

Kiley McDaniel: Some teams like him as a later round power bat, some barely think he’s worth drafting. That’s kinda how most of the non-elite conference 1B only power bats go.

12:12

Jr: Who’s the top 3 draft prospects right now?

12:13

Kiley McDaniel: Mize, Bohm, Madrigal for me but you could argue Swaggerty or McClanahan or Stewart could be in there.

12:14

Kiley McDaniel: So we just posted my super long high school prospect notebook here: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/far-too-many-scouting-notes-on-prep-dr…

12:14

Kiley McDaniel: Video, reports and where they should be drafted on 14 players I’ve seen in the last month

12:14

Kiley McDaniel: here’s a similar breakdown of the college players I saw, from last week: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/far-too-many-scouting-notes-on-college…

12:15

Kiley McDaniel: and here’s our preseason rankings for reference, which will be updated soon, probably next week: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/mlb-draft-rankings-2018-2019-and-2020/

12:15

Kiley McDaniel: and here’s my notes from guys I saw week one, including McClanahan: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/draft-notes-in-person-scouting-scuttle…

12:15

Jr: How much of pitching injuries is just luck, 100%?

12:17

Kiley McDaniel: I’d say around 50%. Some teams think they can drastically reduce the chances with some biomechanical, arm action, delivery, sport science, etc. sort of research and I’m inclined to agree. Still a lot of luck and personal factors buried in a players DNA where we can’t find it out don’t understand it. Kinda the same for eyes measuring a player’s hitting skill. We know it’s there and some teams think they can get a decent idea, but there’s tons we don’t know.

12:17

Desperate, confused Marlins fan: *screams from Miami* Stanton always has a bad April…

12:18

Kiley McDaniel: He’s also really good but NYY fans are always measured and reasonable. Can we get a segment of Mike and Mad Dog saying they should release Stanton so we can replay it when he hits 10 homers in two weeks in June?

12:18

FatGreenPuppet: Where’s your report on the NHSI? Will it go live before the June Draft?

12:18

Kiley McDaniel: NHSI is about 2/3 of the 14 guys that I linked to above that just went live

12:18

Greg: I know Brady Singer’s stuff has reportedly been down this year, but how low could he realistically fall because of it?

12:20

Kiley McDaniel: He’s a tough one, he’s somewhere in the middle of the first round right now. His arm is late to catch up to his body timing wise in his delivery, he failed a physical (but wasn’t hurt) due to arm stuff in HS and his velo was 90-92 early in the spring, but is more 92-94 now. Nothing is plus, but he performs. One scout told me last night that he feels like the guy that slides due to all these worries then he doesn’t get hurt for the next 5-6 years and we’re all like oh duh he should’ve gone top 10. I’m still conflicted but will see him again in the coming weeks, probably when he matches up with Casey Mize in Gainesville.

12:20

Hank: Jaseel De La Cruz was dominant in his first outing. Can he stick as a starter?

12:21

Kiley McDaniel: Maybe! Curious to see him and Muller when I’m up in Georgia later this month. He has two +’s and is a good athlete, but needs to make command progress

12:21

Henry: Any mock drafts coming soon?

12:21

Kiley McDaniel: With the CHW/Swaggerty connection and Kelenic/DET news earlier this week, we’re definitely hearing things so we may jump into the top 10-15 picks after we shuffle the rankings next week

12:23

Bun B: Josh Lowe…Picking up where he left off from last season. Do he and Jesus Sanchez have equally lofty upsides?

12:25

Kiley McDaniel: We have the TB list written, so that should go up soon. Short version on Lowe is he still has 65 raw, 60 speed, 60 arm in CF but his higher risk flyball lofted hitting style in HS has been changed to a more conservative contact approach. Tools are still there for more but he’s in the Brandon Nimmo mold currently, maybe Christian Yelich if you squint and dream real hard. Sanchez is covered in the top 100 here: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-top-100-prospects/

12:25

Outta my way, Gyorkass: I apologize if this sounds like a dumb question, but bear with me: Do top prep players even play for their high school teams their senior years, or do they usually join traveling “all-star” AAU type teams and play for them?

I’m wondering because I live pretty close to Jarred Kelenic’s high school, and would love to go catch a game and see him in action (not too common to be able to see a prep talent like him in these parts!), if he’s even going to be playing for his high school team.

12:26

Kiley McDaniel: Mentioned in the tweets about Kelenic a few days ago. He will be playing for Hitters Baseball, a travel team this spring. Almost every draft prospect, like 99%, play for their HS in the spring. Pretty sure their schedule is online if you want to track him down. Sounds like Eric may be doing that soon.

12:26

paul: I know he’s not a prospect anymore, but is Preston Tucker anything more than a bench bat?

12:26

Kiley McDaniel: Platoon/bench LH corner OF bat, solid 45

12:26

Slurve: Which players solid/excellent start has been most interesting to you? Why?

12:28

Kiley McDaniel: Some guys look legitimately better than their offseason reports, with pitchers adding velo the easiest group to notice that from. Griffin Canning and Kyle Muller both had velo spikes and they will rise (and we will have a mechanism coming soon for you to follow these risers). There’s also a tooled-up NL west prospect that we will be the high guys on, list coming next week. We got a Julio Jones body comp on him.

12:28

Scott: Hey Kiley! I’m curious how scouts are trained by teams. Is it learning on the job or is there a training program? Do you see any issues with how it is done? Solutions/ideas? Thanks!

12:29

Kiley McDaniel: It’s common for more entry level jobs to go to retired players with limited scouting experience or more internet scouts/interns that have a year or two of scouting experience. Obviously, lots of learning on the job for both of those groups. Any scout you ask, no matter how experienced, would tell you they learn something new every day.

12:30

Kiley McDaniel: Some teams have formal scout schools to get everyone on the same page about the basics, others just make concerted efforts to match experienced guy with younger guys for 1-on-1 type training at games, in-season

12:31

Nick V: Thoughts on the Indians lack of hitting? Is it just “early”, the terrible weather, or are they actually really bad at the moment?

12:32

Kiley McDaniel: I know their BABIP luck has been terrible, so you could call that “early”

12:32

paul: Bohm seems like a perfect fit for Atlanta. Any chance?

12:32

Kiley McDaniel: Don’t think he gets there. Believe in Austin Riley!

12:32

Kiley McDaniel: Also, there must be 47 Lucchesi questions I’ve seen so far, glad I addressed that at the top

12:32

Pete: Senzel recently said he’d be playing second base in Louisville after giving him reps at SS in ST. What are the Reds doing with him? Do they  see Peraza for what he is (not a very good MLB player) and view Senzel as the SS going forward? If so, why wouldn’t he be starting full-time at SS in AAA? Or do you see the Reds moving Gennett and sliding Senzel in at second. Help me understand.

12:33

Kiley McDaniel: With Gennett, Peraza and injured Suarez, he might be their best short-term and long-term fit at all three spots. It’s a stretch to make Senzel a SS for the foreseeable future but weirder things have happened. I would guess he settles at 2B until/unless something happens to Suarez in a longer term sense.

12:33

Timmy: Even though you said Mize is still the favorite, what would you put the odds at for Kelenic at 1-1?

12:35

Kiley McDaniel: Told a friend in the industry last night I’m guessing 75% Mize 1-1 right now–DET’s top two tendencies are SEC performers and power arms–then I’d guess it goes Bohm and McClanahan or Kelenic third. If Mize’s medical comes back fishy, which some are worried it might, then it could get interesting. That said, Mize still goes top 10 even if that happens.

12:35

Alan: Talk to me about Bohm’s defensive ceiling. Will he be average at best? Will his bat make it a moot point anyways?

12:36

Kiley McDaniel: Might be a little above but he’s also 6’4, so I’d take a 50 glove with 60 arm.

12:36

Alan: White Sox draft scuttlebutt.  Plz give.

12:36

Kiley McDaniel: I think Swaggerty is their guy. They also like Bohm. Should be able to get one of them.

12:37

Bob: Colton Welker hit 350 last year and is off to a great start this year (yes in Lancaster, but 550 is 550). Is it possible he’ An elite hitter? Do you think he can handle 3B?

12:40

Kiley McDaniel: We had him as a 45 we were buying (i.e. good chance of jumping on to next year’s top 100) https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/heres-some-lower-ranked-prospects-we-l…

12:40

Kiley McDaniel: Possible 60 hit/50 power, fringe at 3B

12:40

Kiley McDaniel: like a Christian Arroyo type

12:41

Slurve: If you had to pick a ROY for AL or NL that is currently on an MLB roster, other than Othani, who do you think it would be?

12:41

Kiley McDaniel: Andujar for AL

12:41

Mike: Kelenic turns 19 this summer and is almost a year older than some of his classmates. Bohm is also a year older than Swaggerty and some others in the college JR class. How does that weigh in the evaluation of a player?

12:41

Kiley McDaniel: Matter more for HS than college and more for hitters than pitchers, but matters in all four instances.

12:42

Dave: Kiley, who do you think has the better chance to stay at 3B, Bohm is Gorman?

12:42

Kiley McDaniel: Bohm projects for solid average, Gorman below average right now, so it isn’t that close

12:42

Mike: You reported the Tigers/Kelenic stuff last week. Do you think they would need to see something they don’t like about Mize in terms of injury to go another direction? Or do you think there’s a good chance they pass on a healthy Mize to take Kelenic or someone else?

12:42

Kiley McDaniel: Don’t see them passing on healthy/passes physical Mize

12:43

Hinkie: Kiley … According to your draft notes column last week, it sounds like the Phillies are considering Alec Bohm with the 1-3 pick.  Have you heard of any other prospects the Phillies are most seriously scouting/considering for that pick ?

12:43

Kiley McDaniel: Hearing Madrigal as well, Logan Gilbert has come up but that seems too rich for 3

12:43

Dave: Kiley, which is tgemHS infielder has the most upside? De Sedas, Turang, Gorman?

12:44

Kiley McDaniel: Turang has a chance to be 55-60 Hit, 50 power, 60 run at SS, Gorman 50-55 Hit, 60-65 power at 3B. Both have some real concerns about reach that. De Sedas is much lower than them.

12:45

Dave: Kiley, Jeremy Eierman’s base-stealing seems to go under-reported. He has 16 SB’s, with only 1 CS. Very similar to last year. Is he that good, or is it the product of a lesser conference? And do you see any way he enters the top 10?

12:45

Kiley McDaniel: Solid average runner, solid instincts. More middle to late 1st

12:46

Dave: Kiley, do you have any concerns are pitch counts and over-use with Logan Gilbert this season?

12:46

Kiley McDaniel: I guess some? I try not to get too overheated about that unless its 140+ pitches, but if I’m a team I’m paying attention to it.

12:46

sf: Where is wander Franco (rays)? Has he not been assigned?

12:46

Kiley McDaniel: Im guessing GCL this year

12:46

Bird Man: Give me an extremely early, reckless breakout APRIL prospect.

12:47

Kiley McDaniel: I think I recklessly threw out Griffin Canning and Kyle Muller earlier without you even making me. My middle name is RECKLESS

12:47

Defenestrater: Please help a Yankees fan who watched two Yankees first basemen succumb to ankle bone bruises in recent years not panic about having Adam Eaton on two of his three fantasy teams.

12:47

Kiley McDaniel: I have no good news!!! PANNNIICCCCC!!!!!

12:48

Erik: Depressing Ohtani comp: Eric Thames. Not in terms of playing style, but in terms of hype. Thames came over from a foreign league after dominating there and looked dominant for a month before settling into being solid and unremarkable. What reasons do we have to believe that the same thing won’t be true of Ohtani?

12:48

Kiley McDaniel: well, ohtani pitches for one

12:48

pickled cucumber: Better hitter, Dom Smith or Peter Alonso?

12:48

Kiley McDaniel: Dom is a much better pure hitter, Alonso has a little more pop and taps into it better

12:49

Jo-Nathan: Jordyn Adams can’t possibly turn down millions if he goes first round?  Having said that I just learned his father is a coach at NC, but still that is life changing money

12:49

Kiley McDaniel: His dad would be his coach and he’s one of the top 100 football prospects in the country. I mean that’s enticing too, even if baseball appears to be the better business decision

12:49

Chris R: How interesting is Brian Anderson’s start to the season? Really encouraged with his plate discipline to start the season (O-Swing% down 10% from last year).

12:49

Kiley McDaniel: He might be good! Another top 100 guy that we were the high guys on that’s playing well (knocks on wood).

12:50

Jonathan: It’s so ridiculously early, but I’m wondering if you’ve heard scuttlebutt from scouting buddies about surprisingly good/bad looks, even if it’s too early to draw firm conclusions.

12:50

Kiley McDaniel: Heard Maitan’s body still look sloppy. I mean that sucks, but it’s fixable. Much better than X or Y pitcher is down 10 mph.

12:50

Sammy Sooser: Do D1 head coaches make it difficult to evaluate guys? For example, this past weekend, Cal State Fullerton had runners on 1st and 2nd with nobody out in the first inning, and their coach had Ruben Cardenas lay down a sac bunt. To this sportsball fan, that seemed a bit odd to do with your #3 hitter, but then again, these kinds of things probably happen all the time. Any thoughts on this, and how it helps/hurts the evaluation process, if at all? Thanks, hope you and McSpaniel have a good one.

12:52

Kiley McDaniel: Fullerton and UVA have taken this mantle from Stanford for opposite field groundball swings and bunts. Kudos to Stanford’s new staff for changing that culture completely–I literally saw a Stanford coach yell at a first rounder weeks before the draft for hitting a homer in BP. Not surprising at all, but it sounds like prospects are figuring this stuff out and picking schools accordingly, hence them tweeting about their Trackman/Driveline, etc. type programs. Maybe they’re hearing it from me, too? Hello, prospects!

12:53

Bravesy McBravesface: How has Jarred Kelenic looked so far this spring?

12:53

Kiley McDaniel: Has only played a handful of games, but sounds like it’s been solid. Had a minor illness recently.

12:53

Bad Johnson: Seuly Matias is off to a hot start. Can we talk about his ceiling, posssible comps, and what he needs to do to be a top talent? (Eric mentioned he could be a top 30 overall guy if he can hit, but couldn’t that be said for a lot of guys?)

12:54

Kiley McDaniel: I bet he will be on our top 100 very soon. He can strikeout if he gets to his power in games. He has some serious thunder in the bat, like maybe Acuna level thunder eventually.

12:54

PTown: Would you be shocked if the White Sox took Bohm with the 4th pick even though they drafted Burger last year?

12:54

Kiley McDaniel: Nope because that would be smart and not taking Bohm for that reason would be stupid

12:54

Oregon Guy: Does Larnach project as a 1st rounder? Future starting OF or still fuzzy at this point? Guy is raking.

12:55

Kiley McDaniel: Middle 1st round. Another guy I may be the high guy on right now along with Connor Scott.

12:55

BK: Danny Jansen sure backed up your high ranking of him with a monster opening game in AAA! (SSS, I know)

12:55

Kiley McDaniel: we’re golden gods we will never be wrong again

12:55

Hans Gruber: Shane Bieber isn’t listed on FG.. but he has had a couple good starts already in AA. What’s his dealio? Ceiling? Comps?

12:56

Kiley McDaniel: High 45, great candidate for the top 100 with another half season or so of dominating. Sorta Lucchesi-ish in that it’s above average stuff but above command and feel helps it play up

12:56

3 Ben Sheets to the Wind: Is Senzel good enough to hit the ground running when he gets the call?

12:56

Kiley McDaniel: let’s drop him and find out

12:56

S: Is Adam Ottavino fixed?

12:56

Kiley McDaniel: Looked pretty nasty this week

12:57

Kevin: Aside from the obvious #1, if you’re in the top ten, where do you think the best value pick will be given the “tiers” of players forming?

12:57

Kiley McDaniel: I think the top tier is 6 right now, maybe 7. That will change.

12:57

notacop: Mason Martin his his 2nd HR of the minor-league season yesterday. Small sample sizes–yada, yada–but is there anything to see here? Guy just keeps on raking

12:57

Kiley McDaniel: He’s interesting

12:57

Brandon Nimmo: Oh C’mon. Really? Me?!?!?!?!

12:58

Kiley McDaniel: Waitm is this directed at me for comping a Low-A player to you or at the Mets, for continuing to handle their outfielders like we’re in the 1950’s and they’re blindfolded and underwater?

12:58

ATL: Thoughts on Soto’s hot start? This guy the best candidate to jump up prospect lists to top 20/top10 now that he’s healthy?

12:58

Kiley McDaniel: It’s possible. He’s really good and was in the middle of out top 100 with a really limited in-game track record

12:59

Willy Wonka: Has Patrick Corbin reached another level as a #2 starter-type? Or just off to a nice start?

12:59

Kiley McDaniel: Sounds like the slider usage for him and Gerrit Cole may be optimizing their outcomes going forward. BUY!

12:59

Kiley McDaniel: man, we should do some lame buy or sell segment next week. I’ll get bored with it after 10 minutes but it’ll be glorious

1:00

Alex R.: Ethan Hankin’s has fallen down the draft board a bit but is there any chance he still goes in the top 2 to either the tigers or the giants?

1:00

Kiley McDaniel: He’s gonna have to go insane to go top 5, still a chance to sneak in the top 10.

1:00

IMW: Will Sean Reid-Foley figure it out? If so will it be as an RP or SP?

1:00

Kiley McDaniel: My guess is RP

1:00

BK: Thoughts on Yennsy Diaz in the Jays system? He had a very nice debut, followed by three no hit innings (so far) in his second start today.

1:01

Kiley McDaniel: Writing up that system right now. Like him! solid 40 FV

1:01

Jeff: Griffin Canning was sitting at 92 coming into the draft. He was thought to be a back end of the rotation starter. Through spring and his first start he’s been sitting at 95 and touching 97. If he’s sitting at 95 what is his ceiling?

1:02

Kiley McDaniel: He could be on the top 100 in short order if he keeps doing this. Possible mid-rotation guy. He flashed this for a start or two last spring, but settled lower

1:02

Bird Man: Do you see Luiz Gohara taking that next step to Acehood by the end of the season?

1:03

Kiley McDaniel:

1:03

Eric: Thoughts on the Padres’ Tirso Ornelas? Should we be excited?

1:04

Kiley McDaniel: Yes! The Padres as REALLY excited. Another guy that could get onto a top 100 by mid to late season

1:04

Bravesy McBravesface: Is Joey Bart a top 10 draft prospect?

1:04

Kiley McDaniel: Might be, he’s close if he isn’t, definitely trending up

1:05

Bobby Bradley’s 40-time: Best draft eligible, college arms in New England?

1:05

Kiley McDaniel: Eh Tim Cate at UConn is the only one that comes to mind and he’s shut down currently. Very good northeast prep year.

1:05

Kiley McDaniel: Lineras Torres, Mike Vasil, Matt Cusick, Grant Lavigne, Charles Mack, Nick Decker

1:05

Kiley McDaniel: All could go top 3 rounds

1:06

Kiley McDaniel: man that ace hood track still bangs

1:06

IMW: What is happening to Brady Singer?

1:06

Kiley McDaniel: probably eating chipotle if i had to guess

1:06

Pauly: Any concerns about Albies and Swanson and their lack of walks? Ozzie has 0, and Dansby has 1…

1:06

Kiley McDaniel: I WOKE UP IN A NEW BUGGATI

1:07

Kiley McDaniel: sorry ummm well obviously it isn’t ideal but dansby is making solid contact and ozzie is a 70 or 80 bat control guy so not as bad as if they were late count power hitters that aren’t drawing walks

1:08

DDD: Jose Alvarado had a horrendous walk rate in the minors.  In his 29 IPs last season his walk rate was good (2.73/9).  So far this season his rate is 1.69/9.  Has he figured out how to avoid the walks, or is this a case of SSS?

1:08

Kiley McDaniel: Too early to say, but the stuff is absurd, so it may not matter that much

1:08

Kiley McDaniel: or at least not as much as it would for other guys

1:08

Outta my way, Gyorkass: How much has Jonathan India raised his stock this year? Absolutely raking for a team that he used to be what, the 4th or 5th best hitter on? Fun stat too: no GIDPs in 133 PAs!

1:09

Kiley McDaniel: Chance to go back of the 1st round now, I did not see that coming: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/far-too-many-scouting-notes-on-college…

1:09

Slurve: Has anyone ever looked into the past first round picks as far as number/% reaching the majors – HS vs. College Pitchers, HS vs. College Position Players?  HS vs. College overall?

1:09

Kiley McDaniel: Hundreds, maybe thousands

1:10

Bravesy McBravesface: If you were a GM, would you prefer to draft college players who were a little safer but had a lower ceiling, or would you rather draft a high-ceiling prep player that’s a bit riskier?

1:10

Kiley McDaniel: I’d treat every player differently based on their ability /high roaded

1:10

Finnegan: You’re high on Alec Bohm, will he go high because of the hit/power combo during an era where teams feel they can fix launch angle, or will he slide due to athleticism and defensive concerns?

1:10

Kiley McDaniel: There aren’t athleticism/defensive concerns so no

1:11

King Tut: Do you think Kelenic will stay in CF?

1:11

Kiley McDaniel: Not a slam dunk but yes

1:11

FH: What happened to the top two prep righties coming into the season, Ethan Hankins and Kumar Rocker. Rocker looks so good on video, i don’t understand why he’s not top 10…?

1:11

Kiley McDaniel: He might be, he’s close to that and he’s been shoving all year

1:11

Gary: Which Royals OF prospect do you like better? Matias or Lee.

1:11

Kiley McDaniel: Matias

1:11

Jason: Jean Carlos Encarnacion with 3 doubles already. Still not looking like he’ll ever take a walk well. What’s his upside?

1:12

Kiley McDaniel: Chance to be an everyday 3B, but long way to go, needs to shore up pitch recognition: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-32-prospects-atlanta-braves-2/

1:12

Runelvys Gergich: Is there any chance, based on what you’ve heard, that the Tigers take Madrigal?

1:12

Kiley McDaniel: I would say very, very low

1:13

BK: Ozzie just hit a homer, he’s amazing

1:13

SN: now Bugatti is stuck in my head, thanks

1:13

Kiley McDaniel: You’re all welcome

1:13

Mountie Votto: Time to try Amir Garrett in the rotation?

1:13

Kiley McDaniel: Might let him find success a little longer, but I’d consider it. Let Tanner Rainey eat!

1:14

OddBall Herrera: Albies sees our concerns about his BB rate and raises us a 1st inning homer

1:14

LioneeR: Albies HR.  Love him so much

1:14

Kiley McDaniel: we’ve found our chat mascot

1:14

Finnegan: Any prospects worth making a trip to see in Colorado?

1:14

Kiley McDaniel: Cole Winn would’ve been, but he moved to SoCal, so no

1:14

Christian: The scout report on his profile list Jakob Junis’ slider as a 50. Do 50 grade sliders usually have articles written about them titled “Look at this Stupid Slider?”

1:15

Kiley McDaniel: It is better than that now, but to be fair it wasn’t always that good

1:15

Slurve: Which Chat comment of yours are you most proud of?  either accurate or quippy…something you have remembered to this day?

1:15

Kiley McDaniel: I was once at a poker table, some blowhard kept bringing up stupid facts to seem smart, then he said “did you know you can overdose on water?” and right away I said “yeah it’s called drowning”

1:16

Kiley McDaniel: didn’t even have a chance to think about it, it was just my frustrated reaction and luckily it worked. he left the table pretty soon after that and the staff carried me out on their shoulders chanting my name

1:16

Bort: When can we expect to see the Jays system report?

1:16

Kiley McDaniel: I should finish the words today, so hopefully this week

1:17

Hans Gruber: THANK YOU sir for your hard work and insight. helping me sharpen my scout tools and nerd out on this sport even harder!

1:17

Kiley McDaniel: whoa that was too earnest you must be new around here but also you’re welcome

1:17

Logan: Any news on Vasil? Any other NE guys that might pop up boards once they start playing?

1:18

Kiley McDaniel: We loved him preseason, I think he’s only thrown once. I may go up there to see some of those NE guys

1:18

Connor: What are the chances Kevin Merrell sticks at short?

1:18

Kiley McDaniel: 0%, it’s emergency at best and you might cringe watching it, but he’s functional. It’s maybe a 2B, probably a CF.

1:18

tb.25: If you’ve been chatting with us, how did your article get published… are you the real Kiley?!

1:19

Kiley McDaniel: (blows dust out of hands, gestures wildly)

MAGIC

1:19

JT: Is Yordan Alavarez the rare interesting 1B prospect (assuming he grows out of LF)?

1:19

Kiley McDaniel: Yes

1:19

Z: Can you explain more about grading Bo Bichette with a future 50 hit tool? Obviously he has an absurd BABIP, but does that point to him barrelling a lot of balls up? Is the grade more based on the belief that his swing won’t work as effectively at the ML level?

1:20

Kiley McDaniel: We think he’s gonna choose to tap into his power. He could be a 60 bat/50 power if he wants. Vlad Jr could also choose to manipulate those grades a bit too. They’re both really good. There’s 5’8 dudes hitting 30 pumps, so we’re guessing those two will do it as well.

1:20

Sean: Kiley, what do you see as Kyler Murray’s projection?

1:20

Kiley McDaniel: Heard positive buzz, I’ll see him in May. Could go top 5 rounds.

1:21

Chopsecutioner : has Dansby Swanson figured things out or is the strong start just noise

1:21

Kiley McDaniel: Looks like he’s shortened up to cover more of the plate, which was his issue before, so I’d BUY this change, Skip.

1:21

wahoo: As a UVA guy, a little concerned regarding your previous comments — not so much because they aren’t fair in their general description — UVA does play a lot of small/situational ball.  But your comment made it sound like this is just unequivocally bad for the players, recruits should take note, etc…  You honestly think that schools that may emphasize some aspects of this a little more than others are bad for player/hitter development?  This doesn’t seem fair or accurate, unless there is some data to really support that hitters can’t develop properly at a school like this.  UVA had two hitters drafted in the top 10 last year, so at a minimum — it doesn’t seem like this style of baseball is doing anything to hurt their hitters if they really have the tools.  Schools like UVA and Fullerton have also been very successful college programs.

1:24

Kiley McDaniel: You can disagree if you want but colleges can encourage/develop players to play a pro style game, geared to their specific ability that allows the team to win and the player to improve in a way that will get him paid and get drafted higher

OR

the coaches can call all the pitches, call a bunch of bunts, make them all swing in such a way that will never get them to the big leagues, probably hurt their pro prospects and draft position, make them unlearn their swing in pro ball and possibly harm how quickly they can advance…

all because you think you’re smarter than all the kids and that the best way to develop individuals is to treat them all the same and make them fit into the same box.

1:27

Kiley McDaniel: The kids can take that information and weigh a good education, successful team, possibly more success as a team in college with detrimental development of their professional career and weigh it vs their other school options. If I’m a kid with no pro prospects, then I probably don’t care about that. And UVA’s issues aren’t just how they coach hitting.

1:29

Rob: Who are some top college bats for the 2019 Draft? Is Adley Rutschman from OSU moving up in the ranks?

1:29

Kiley McDaniel: He was already high and may be moving up. Our preseason list is most of the big names: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/mlb-draft-rankings-2018-2019-and-2020/

1:29

Kiley McDaniel: I’d add Michael Busch from UNC to that list

1:29

BK: Thoughts on Samad Taylor?

1:30

Kiley McDaniel: We like him! 40 FV guy, chance to be role player

1:30

Chopsecutioner : Any concerns about Acuna’s ice cold start at triple A?

1:30

Kiley McDaniel: PANIC! jk dont do that

1:30

paul: Any signability rumors on UF guys (Denaburg, Scott, Seigler, Acton, etc)?

1:31

Kiley McDaniel: Acton may get to school, Scott and Seigler won’t. Denaburg has a chance to get to school if the biceps tendonitis get worse and he sets his price high, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

1:31

Do The Chop: Is Pache going to be a regular at the major league level or closer to Juan Lagares?

1:32

Kiley McDaniel: Another guy that we’re the high guys on (nice job bringing up the good names, guys), so I’m aiming much loftier than Lagares: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-top-100-prospects/

1:32

Benji: Did I take a wrong turn?  I thought this was the doggo and pupper chat?  I mean, prospects are cool and all, but cmon, doggos and puppers rule!

1:32

Kiley McDaniel: She’s napping just behind me. I tweeted some solid pupper content yesterday

1:33

PTown: Is Swaggerty a better prospect coming out than Corey Ray or Adam Haseley?

1:33

Kiley McDaniel: Better than Haseley, comparable to Ray but Ray had more tools and longer track record

1:33

Davoink Showerhandel: Mike and the Mad Dog went off the air years ago and Mike just retired.  Get up to date on your New York-area Hot Take Sports Radio hosts, McDaniel!

1:33

Kiley McDaniel: They were on (I believe) MLB network recently and had some hot takes on Ohtani that were laughable like days later

1:33

Jack: Is Joey Bart a lock in first round? Which team would be interested in him?

1:34

Kiley McDaniel: Yes, probably all of them

1:34

Kyle: Any buzz on Brett Kinneman?

1:34

Kiley McDaniel: 4th-6th round, ok tools, performer

1:34

Pinetar: a little more pop ..?!?  wut??  if not for the stupid anti-RHed hitting 1Bman bias, Alonso would/should be a consensus top 100 prospect by this point.  Guy has just mashed from day 1.

1:35

Kiley McDaniel: He’s also a huge R/R first baseman with one plus tool, there’s no margin for error there

1:35

Davoink Showerhandel: Is Nate Pearson one of the highest upside starters in the minors?

1:35

Kiley McDaniel: Yep, also rising and I should see him soon

1:35

Dave: Who is the most under rated reliever?

1:36

Kiley McDaniel: 2nd to last group at this link is lots of good, close to the majors type for you fantasy heads

1:36

los doyers: who are your favorite ucla prospects?

1:36

Kiley McDaniel: They’re all for the 2019 draft: Toglia, Strumpf, Kreidler, Garcia. Garrett Mitchell for 2020

1:36

paul: India a first rounder?

1:36

Kiley McDaniel: Possibly, in the mix for late first

1:37

Jimbo: Any sense of who the Braves like at 8?

1:37

Kiley McDaniel: The team links are more in the top 5-6 picks where a top tier has emerged

1:37

dominik: should the white sox really consider bohm? I know usually you should go BPA but the sox already have like a million corner bats in their system and really lack up the middle (middle IF, CF) talent.

1:37

Kiley McDaniel: They aren’t all gonna hit, trade the leftovers when you find the good ones. Pitchers will always be available in trades

1:38

v2micca: Bryse Wilson got his first start in Advanced A last night.  And he looks like the same Bryse Wilson from Rookie ball and Low A.  Aggressive in the strikezone, limits walks, will give up hits.  What level does he finish the 2018 season at?

1:38

Kiley McDaniel: I’d bet AA, but wouldn’t rule out like a AAA playoff start or something like that at the very end if things line up

1:38

Zook: Is Turang an option for SD in the draft?

1:38

Kiley McDaniel: Sure but I think he goes lower than that

1:38

Jack: For you personally – Pavin Smith or Evan White?

1:38

Kiley McDaniel: Pavin

1:39

Bun B: <3 Hinkie

1:39

Defenestrater: AAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!

1:39

Bob: SOROKA

1:39

PTown: Should

1:39

Kiley McDaniel: Uh oh it’s in range

1:39
1:39

Kiley McDaniel: Topical

1:39

Jack: Do I have any right to think the Mets are actually this good? Am I being paranoid expecting it to fall apart?

1:39

Kiley McDaniel: Typical

1:40

Foyle: If the entire MLB were forced to play out a Lord of the Flies situation (yes, I know, many flies), who would end up being Ralph? Piggy?

1:40

BK: really don’t have a question, just want your opinion

1:40

Kiley McDaniel: a motto to live by. see you next week!

We hoped you liked reading Kiley McDaniel Chat – 4/11/18 by Kiley McDaniel!

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Kiley McDaniel has worked as an executive and scout, most recently for the Atlanta Braves, also for the New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles and Pittsburgh Pirates. He's written for ESPN, Fox Sports and Baseball Prospectus. Follow him on twitter.

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Generally speaking, what’s the likely future role of a Cole Winn or Mason Debaburg (assuming no developmental disasters, of course)? No. 4 with a 33% of becoming a No. 3….?