Kiley McDaniel Chat – 6/26/18

12:38

Kiley McDaniel: Sorry for the delay! Errand running went a little sideways then got a call back from an int’l scout. But I am here now!

12:38

Tommy N.: Should I worry about Weathers not signing?

12:39

Kiley McDaniel: Good first question. Lots of rumors flying around about unsigned prep picks. Suffice it to say we’ve heard somewhat reliable buzz about all of them possibly not signing, but it’s likely almost all of them do…though the buzz is of varying seriousness. So can’t really help you with the specific ones more than an inkling as to what happens right before the deadline.

12:41

Kiley McDaniel: Hold on, just got some buzz to report on that exact topic

12:42

Kiley McDaniel:

 

Kiley McDaniel
@kileymcd

 

Source: Pirates comp round pick (36th overall) Florida prep RHP Gunnar Hoglund attended orientation for summer scho… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
26 Jun 2018
12:42

Kiley McDaniel: Okay back to the chat

12:43

Mike: Seems like the Red Sox are poised to be less aggressive in the IFA market this year (at least as compared to last year). Do you agree? Any hope that they might be serious bidders in the Victor Victor Mesa sweepstakes?

12:45

Kiley McDaniel: We have them giving 7 figures to a guy currently in our top 30, so not exactly slumming it this year. Just talked to a guy about Mesa and he said teams don’t even know where he is working out right now, that’s it radio silence presumably until there’s an indication about when he’s going to be cleared. Often the Cubans will get in ridiculous shape pre open workout so that’s likely why; rumor is there’s a workout in about a month. Would seem kinda crazy to forego guys this year for a guy with so little information available, but who knows at this point.

12:46

Matt : Hey kiley thanks for taking the time to chat. Does Nate Pearson have legitamite durability concerns or is this just bad luck so far? Are you down on him at all?

12:46

Kiley McDaniel: Not really, we didn’t move him down much. Seems like mostly bad luck or normal wear and tear from a guy with a huge velo spike

12:46

John: When will the board be updated with your midseason rankings? You or Eric had mentioned that a couple of weeks ago it would be soon

12:47

Kiley McDaniel: Well we have like 50-60 guys we’ve changed but we decided to take a little extra time and go investigate all of the 800 or so guys in the mix, rather that just update the guys we have notes on already. So it’ll probably be up next week after the J2 board goes up later this week, in time for pre-trade deadline stuff.

12:48

John: What do you make of Luke Heimlich to the Royals talk?

12:50

Kiley McDaniel: We’ve heard the same thing and that was the team that made the most sense to us pre-draft to take a shot on him. So, not super surprising. I don’t think it’s a good idea and I’d never do it. Also unclear why they wouldn’t take him in the 7-10th round for a super low bonus and make more draft capital for later.

12:50

Ryan: Can you share any new revelations on expected destinations for any of the international players available to sign next week?

12:51

Kiley McDaniel: Well when the J2 board goes up in a few days every player will magically be projected to the team that signs them a few days later, sadly unlike our mock drafts

12:51

Owen: Ethan Hankins signing with Chipola – is that just to increase his leverage or is it a sign that he seriously might not sign with Cleveland?

12:52

Kiley McDaniel: Leverage for sure, it’s posturing SZN. But that may also be a sign he doesn’t sign…I mean a few of them won’t it’s just hard to tell which right now

12:52

GraphsFan: Can you tell me anything good about the Mariners’ system? Please?

12:52

Kiley McDaniel: We like Logan Gilbert!

12:52

~*cRuShIn*~: Albies appears out of his funk and ready to be our new overlord. But are WE ready?

12:52

Kiley McDaniel: PPL GET READY ALBIES IS COMIN

12:52

Jake Junis Priest: Is this all there is for Adalberto Mondesi?

12:53

Kiley McDaniel: You should probably ask baseball expert Bill Simmons about that

12:53

DAT DUDE BP: How early do you notice if someone that plays in the DSL will be a star in the making like a Fernando Tatis Jr. story so to speak?

12:53

Kiley McDaniel: Usually those guys don’t play in the DSL and it’s easier to tell when it’s in the AZL/GCL, so usually about midway thru that season you start hearing tstuff

12:54

GraphsFan: Not sure if you have any rough estimates, but are there general % outcomes for a general FV 40/50/60 player? I imagine that’s kind of what KATOH was trying to answer, but curious if other Prospect experts have guidelines.

12:54

Kiley McDaniel: Don’t have it handy but I suspect we will have something along these lines at some point this year

12:54

Kiley McDaniel: We’re invested in making the grades and context around them more approachable…and never behind a paywall

12:54

TJ: How did Clarke Schmidt look in his 1 inning initial return?

12:55

Kiley McDaniel: Heard he was 92-96 in his first outing in extended, so sounds like the stuff is back

12:55

GraphsFan: Are tools weighted evenly when projecting toward FV? I.e. If a prospect had a 70 Hit tool, would that count equally toward his FV as a prospect who has a 70 Speed tool?

12:55

Kiley McDaniel: Nope, there’s a preference of tools by position. Like defense is most important for catchers, power for 1B, etc. 20 speed at 1B almost doesn’t matter at all, while it hugely matters to a CF.

12:56

Paul: Any concern on Carter Stewart signing?

12:56

Kiley McDaniel: That’s another one with some rumors around it

12:56

bonnie: Do any of the minor league all-star games excite you?

12:57

Kiley McDaniel: I went to the FSL game and it was useful to get some guys I hadn’t seen yet this year but they didn’t put all the prospects that should be in the game on the teams, so it wasn’t as useful as it could’ve been

12:57

That guy from France: Any breakout in the Yankees System ?

12:57

Kiley McDaniel: Roansy Contreras has been noisy in Staten Island, tweeted about him last week. Mid 90’s with a plus-flashing slider

12:57

Jonathan: Luis Patino and Roansy Contreras are both height-challenged, they both have good fastballs and potentially plus breakers, they’re both showing well at aggressive assignments and are generating very positive buzz.  I’m having trouble separating them, value-wise.  How would you do it?

12:58

Kiley McDaniel: They’re both 40 FVs so I guess I wouldn’t?

12:58

Paul: Is Jean Carlos Encarnacion a legitimate prospect? Hear anything new about him this year?

12:59

Kiley McDaniel: Moving up toward the top of the 40’s, still would like to see more walks but we touted the loud tools before the season and he’s performing. Eric and I reviewed the ATL system last night and it’s sorta weird to have so many 50+ guys, post-Acuna no one in the top 20 overall and then only a couple 45s before a lot of 40s, mostly injured guys and guys with bad seasons.

12:59

Jason Mantzoukas: Did the Royals farm system improve significantly after this draft?

1:00

Kiley McDaniel: I would say yes and Heynong Man

1:00

The Old Buccaneer: Best Minor League/Spring Training Park in Florida to see a game?

1:00

Kiley McDaniel: Clearwater

1:00

Nathan: Daniel Lynch’s stock rose a lot right before the draft. Do you have a brief scouting report on him?

1:00

Kiley McDaniel: I even have a longer one

1:01

Kiley McDaniel: scroll down to #23 and click on report and/or video

1:01

Kiley DcManiel: Do you have any prospects that you a personal affinity for? I’m sure you are rooting for all of them, but do any really speak to your soul, Kiley?

1:02

Kiley McDaniel: Feel like I root for the literally little guys and the non-hyped amateurs that break through in pro ball but don’t have the pedigree of the famous ones.

1:02

Ryan: Have you heard much about Luis Patino for the Padres? He has thrown pretty well for an 18 yr old in full season A ball.

1:02

Kiley McDaniel: Heard some positive preseason buzz that got him on the Padres list, appears to be legit. Not huge but into the upper-90’s, above to plus breaker at times

1:03

Fangraphs reader: The Astros trade “Franklin Perez” to the Tigers where he proceeds to be “injured” for months, now a report comes out that the Astros are linked to a “Cuban” “OF” named “Frank Perez” I’m not buying it.

1:03

Kiley McDaniel: CONSPIRACY ALERT

1:03

Mike: Kiley, are you more of a believer in Trent Deveaux or Kristian Robinson? And why?

1:03

Kiley McDaniel: Robinson. I haven’t seen either but Eric has and he’s very in on Robinson.

1:03

Jacob: Small Sample size in terms of stats, but how has Kevin Maitan’s swing been looking in play?

1:04

Kiley McDaniel: Last I saw when Eric sent me some video of it a few weeks ago, it looked really bad. So here’s to hoping that gets fixed.

1:05

Mike: Which Braves prospect that hasn’t reached the big leagues this year has helped their stock the most?

1:05

Kiley McDaniel: Drew Waters is getting raves from many scouts

1:05

RyRy: I was very intrigued by Freddy Tarnok

1:05

Kiley McDaniel: He’s also moved up some, but is still raw

1:05

Jaime: What is fangraphs doing to be more diverse? There’s too many straight, white males writing on this site…

1:06

Kiley McDaniel: In baseball and sports in general, really. I know we’ve made two recent hires (last 6 months) that don’t fit that description and a couple residencies did as well. We’re making progress.

1:07

Kiley McDaniel: I would add that I’m proud that we’re making that progress, particularly when many others are not.

1:07

Quinn: Do minor leaguers opt for month to month leases? I’m assuming that’s the only way to operate in case of promotions, trades etc

1:07

Kiley McDaniel: Yeah and usually with 3-4 to an apartment so a promotion is less of a problem, new guy just takes the old one’s spot, etc.

1:08

Larry: Bringing Touki up to Atlanta to pitch out of the bullpen in the second half. Good or bad idea?

1:08

Kiley McDaniel: I think it’s worth a shot. Worst case he gets shelled and you send him down until he hits his IP limit with new motivation

1:08

Jay: Chris Paddack is absolutely bonkers. 9Ks in 4 IP last night before pitch limit. Is he heading for a promotion soon to San Antonio?

1:08

Kiley McDaniel: He has been very good. Would assume so, but who knows

1:08

Wig: Would you trade Vlady JR for Albies?

1:09

Kiley McDaniel: I am working on the trade value series right now, about to send a version of it out to some execs. Currently, Vlad Jr. is slightly above Albies.

1:09

Larry: Mason Denaburg have any shot at making it to UF?

1:09

Kiley McDaniel: Another rumored one. There’s some shot but I’d guess he signs.

1:09

Larry: Will Michael Byrne sign with Cincinnati or return for his senior year?

1:10

Kiley McDaniel: The buzz at draft time is he would go back to school and go into the rotation, hope to do a Griffin Roberts and create more value for himself

1:10

Dees: What do you think about Huascar Ynoa’s progress this year?

1:10

Kiley McDaniel: Heard the stuff is still 55-60 across the board, still some RP risk

1:10

A DUB: Why haven’t the Orioles traded Manny yet?

1:10

Kiley McDaniel: I’m not gonna try to predict this given how it’s gone so far

1:10

JH: Why would any highly-coveted July 2 prospect sign with the Mariners given their recent track record of trading absolutely everybody?  Have you heard anything about the trading spree affecting their international signing efforts?

1:11

Kiley McDaniel: Well their money is the same as everyone else’s and sometimes they offer the most of it

1:11

John S: any chance Xavier Edwards sticks at SS? if not SS, is he off the dirt?

1:12

Kiley McDaniel: We projected 2B pre-draft. He’ll be at least average there or CF, probably at least fill-in quality at SS.

1:12

Dylan: Are the Mets going to make Kelenic and Mauricio start in Brooklyn next year to boost ticket sales?

1:12

Kiley McDaniel: Man I hope the Mets don’t make decisions like that

1:12

Greg: Do you classify this year as a success so far for Cristian Pache?

1:12

Kiley McDaniel: Yes, he’s made progress, even if it hasn’t been as much as some hoped for.

1:13

The Biebs: Kiley – how in the world hasn’t Shane Bieber gotten the love he deserves? All time minor leaguer leader in BB/9 (min 100 minor league innings, since 2006) by a wide margin. Solid K/9 numbers.

1:13

Kiley McDaniel: #64!

1:13

Daniel L: Does Jeisson Rosario and Tirso Ornelas have a chance to make the top 100 list next year?

1:13

Kiley McDaniel: Yes, Ornelas over Rosario

1:14

Jason C: Who are your top candidates for the “next Juan Soto”? I.e. top 100 guy (or deeper) that works his way into fantasy top 5 consideration by 2019?

1:14

Kiley McDaniel: I would not expect that to keep happening https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/juan-soto-is-the-fastest-to-majors-sin…

1:14

Alp: The Yankees oughta gove their farm director a raise.

1:14

Kiley McDaniel: Actually Derek Jeter gave him a raise

1:18

Indians Fan: Great chats.  There are a number of exciting young arms.  Wondering, what are your thoughts on their future.  Which one has the best chance to be an ace.  Shane Bieber, Jonathan Loaisigia, Jamie Barria, or Fernando Romero?

1:18

Kiley McDaniel: Eh, insanely low chance any is an ace. I would rank them Bieber, Lasagna, Romero, Barria

1:18

BJMBjfl19: Hey Kiley, as always thanks for the chat.  Can you speak a little bit about the struggles of Jorge Guzman.  Is it just a case of coming back from an injury?  I was expecting big things from him as a 22 year old flame thrower in A+ after putting up video game numbers the year before.

1:19

Kiley McDaniel: He’s still hitting 101, but the offspeed has regressed a bit to more fringy and guys can hit that at this level.

1:19

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Any reason to be concerned about Shane McClanahan signing? Just him and the Rays going back and forth about where in the 2.4-3 range he goes? What about Kerry Wright and his Louisville commitment?

1:19

Kiley McDaniel: Would assume McClanahan signs. Heard Wright’s number was close to $1 million so wouldn’t expect that.

1:19

Sarah: When will the board show newly drafted prospects?

1:19

Kiley McDaniel: It will!

1:20

Skip: Kiley – do you guys still have a 45/45 grade on Bo Bichette as a runner? Is he just taking advantage of minor league catchers?

1:20

Kiley McDaniel: He’s never been a big runner, maybe average for some people at times.

1:20

Ryan: Have you gotten any reports on Matt Sauer yet? He’s had two good starts, but I am wondering what you and your colleagues have seen. Thanks.

1:21

Kiley McDaniel: 90-93 with not great command and a little less head whack than before

1:21

Matt: What are the top names to see on the Cape this year?

1:21

Kiley McDaniel: Toglia may be the top one that isn’t going to team USA

1:21

Charles: I’m a junior in HS and I’m spending my summer on fangraphs…

1:21

Kiley McDaniel: GOOD DECISION

1:21

Chuncey Wiggins: Do scouts get invited to player’s family gatherings like their kid’s birthday party?

1:22

Kiley McDaniel: They often do, but not every player they’ve signed

1:22

Chuncey Wiggins: Do scouts announce their presence when they go another team’s game, or do they sneak in and try to keep a low profile?

1:23

Kiley McDaniel: I usually roll in with one of these, but I’m a bit of an outlier

1:23

Finnegan: The Rockies drafted Kumar Rocker in the 38th round, is there a purpose to this like showing that the organization has interest in him or would the pick have been better served on a long shot kid who could fill out the Rookie ball roster this fall?

1:24

Kiley McDaniel: Generally the room is made aware when all the picks that are needed for the rosters have been filled, then they figure out which tough signs make the most sense and pick those until they’re out of picks. There’s little to gain from taking a kid just to show you’re interested. They know.

1:24

Chuncey Wiggins: Have you ever accidentally eaten the wrapper on a piece of candy, because I just accidentally ate the bones of my fried chicken.

1:24

Kiley McDaniel: It always sneaks up on me but I guess we’re here now

1:25

John Stamos: Spank my bottom and let’s start chatting!

1:25

LudeBurger: Hey baby hey baby hey, Kil-ay, Kil-ay!

1:25

Oyster Burns: Johnny Lasagna :D

1:25

Greg: Who

1:25

MATT BOYD: MATT. BOYD.

1:25

Kiley McDaniel: Juan Soto and Matt Damon go down in an upset well that’s why we have the chats. See you guys next week

We hoped you liked reading Kiley McDaniel Chat – 6/26/18 by Kiley McDaniel!

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Kiley McDaniel has worked as an executive and scout, most recently for the Atlanta Braves, also for the New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles and Pittsburgh Pirates. He's written for ESPN, Fox Sports and Baseball Prospectus. Follow him on twitter.

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AdamPiatt
Member
AdamPiatt

RE:
“Matt : Hey kiley thanks for taking the time to chat. Does Nate Pearson have legitamite durability concerns or is this just bad luck so far? Are you down on him at all?”

He was nailed with a comebacker right in his pitching arm. That’s the definition of bad luck