Kiley McDaniel Chat – 9/14/18

12:16

Kiley McDaniel: Hello, I’m coming to you people on Friday since I was on the road Wednesday. Let’s get to your questions

12:16

I hate avocados: When will we see rankings updates next?

12:17

Kiley McDaniel: I’m guessing Monday? We have one more update of about 15 players to shuffle around before we head into the offseason. We’ll probably lock all those in this weekend as far as where they go exactly, but the list is done

12:19

Arms: Long term who makes the better MLB Pitcher? Shane Bieber or Chris Paddack? Or will both be exceptional?

12:19

Kiley McDaniel: Similar kinds of guys, but Bieber is already there and performing and hasn’t had a TJ, so I’ll take him, though Paddack has a little more ceiling

12:19

Matt: are you buying the Luis patino hype? I believe he should be considered a top 100 prospect, plus velo, athletic, throws strikes, 3-4 usable pitches

12:19

Kiley McDaniel: That is one of the players that will be moved up next week to a 50 FV

12:22

Jason: The Braves have an outfield plethora and middle infield shortage due to the scandal.  If you were AA, would you trade Incartie and wait a year for Pachè. Do you prefer pache or waters?

12:22

Kiley McDaniel: Hold on lemme try out a hot take here

12:23

Kiley McDaniel: Trade Dansby and Inciarte, sign Harper and Machado BOOM FIXED

12:25

Kiley McDaniel: Lots of different questions about what the Braves should do this offseason. I would generally leave the offense alone and let Riley/Waters/Pache work their way up rather than go nuts in FA. Teheran looks expendable, spending in the bullpen looks like a good spot, then wait until the deadline next year to see how the kids progress and either wait a little more or really push the chips in and make a run at some big fish.

12:26

Jim Leyland Palmer: Looks like the first 10 or so picks for the ’19 draft will be full of college hitters. Do you see any potential stars there or more likely above-average regulars?

12:26

Kiley McDaniel: More above average regular types, but I’m sure a few will emerge. Rutschman is the possible star of the group right now

12:26

That Lying SonofaB!tch Johnson : Nolan Jones – terrific approach it seems. Widely variant assessment of hit tool with 40 per FG up to 55 per MLB.com.  Any ideas why such disagreement?  K rate in this level versus age seem to suggest fringy or average, but does he have a better change to maximize the hit tool based on the approach?

12:27

Kiley McDaniel: He is also going to be moving up next week, so you’ll have to wait until then for details

12:27

Anthony: I’m curious what front office people look for in hiring and evaluating managers. Were you ever involved in something like that or do you have any info on how teams decide “this guy- who may or not have a managing track record- would be good”

12:28

Kiley McDaniel: Combining a bunch of things like experience level, track record of managing personalities, track record of tactical expertise, then lots of conversations where you try to tease out if he’s better/worse than the track record when he explains himself…or if he’s a snake oil salesman. Lots of calling around to get thoughts around the industry, former coworkers, etc.

12:28

Jerkstore: Do you see swing change potential in prospects? Was that always built in to prospect ratings via raw vs game? Can you see when a prospect is trying to institute a change like adding a leg kick? I don’t know what people thought of guys like bautista and donaldson pre swing change but i’m wondering if scouts can see that potential without necessarily knowing exactly what the player needs to change.

12:29

Kiley McDaniel: We try not to go nuts projecting that stuff, more reacting quickly when there is a change and it looks sustainable. Generally, being a good athlete and having bat control are the universal qualities that make hitters able to adjust. Albies, Altuve would be the littlest examples of that

12:30

Mike: kevin smith is rated a 40+, do you see him progressing to AA next season and being a roster guy for the Jays down the road?

12:31

Kiley McDaniel: Yep, he’s a type that I think could be a 50 FV when he’s in Triple-A if he keeps performing. He’s not that yet since the upside isn’t enormous, he’s a year or two away and this is his first year at this new level of performance

12:31

Blue Moon Fever: How concerned should I be about Matias’ K rate? What kind of chance does this kind of prospect have in cutting the K rate to a level that will play at higher levels?

12:32

Kiley McDaniel: He’s the type that always gonna be high in K, higher in BB and high in HR…true three outcome and the tools/skills to continue doing this

12:34

Kiley McDaniel: Limits the upside some since the AVG/OBP and speed/defense will be low, but it’s sustainable at some level

12:34

Mike: Pardinho is still not 18, at what level would his FV get bumped ?

12:34

Kiley McDaniel: Issue there is he’s sub 6 foot and filled-out, so he doesn’t have the projectability in performance that most teenagers have due to the physicality being mature

12:34

Ghost of Ned Yost: DL Hall have 1-2 upside?

12:35

Kiley McDaniel: On certain days, yes. On other days he looks like a bullpen guy. But, again, not a super long list of guys that flash that ability at all

12:35

Al: How do we figure out if this is purely a hot streak or if Amed Rosario has finally figured it out/adjusted. (it’s insane how many people were willing to write off a 22 year SS who was a top 3 prospect in baseball a year ago)

12:36

Kiley McDaniel: This is probably what he is–toolsy, electric, a little impatient, probably plays a bit below the ultimate upside but a solid regular with a chance to be well above

12:36

Warbiscuit: Any SEC guys you are liking for next year’s draft class?

12:37

Kiley McDaniel: Here’s a good list of all the top guys to monitor. That list (same link) will be updated over time and include a lot more names as the draft gets closer

12:37

Bryan A.: Can 2019 LHP Hunter Barco be a top 10 pick even though he isn’t on your big board?

12:38

Kiley McDaniel: May be tough given the lower arm slot, but prep pitchers can really move up/down a lot when stuff goes up/down a tick or two across the board. Certainly possible, not likely. Wouldn’t have guessed Ryan Weathers would’ve gone top 10 even in April, so silly to rule stuff like that out this early.

12:38

Rob: Why would you ever stir the pot with Braves fans like that? You know at least 85% of the fan base fully expects them to swap Inciarte and Swanson with Harper and Machado now

12:39

Kiley McDaniel: joker burning mountain of cash dot gif

12:39

Hank: Do you believe what Camargo is doing can be sustained somewhat heading into 2019?

12:40

Kiley McDaniel: I think he’s a 50 or 55 FV going forward. Some good offenses put multi-positional 50 FV types in hybrid roles–Marwin Gonzalez, Ian Happ, etc.–so this doesn’t create some unsolvable problem like it seems some fans think re: Riley v. Camargo

12:41

RVA Empire: Is there a pitching equivalent to wxOBA? I assume yes, at least internally for ballclubs, but I have not heard of a publicly-accessible version.

12:42

Kiley McDaniel: Petriello references this some (I think?) but yes, the smart teams had pretty advanced ERA estimators (using proprietary data) in like 2010

12:42

Kiley McDaniel: Probably some before that, too

12:42

Kiley McDaniel: But they got much more accurate when Trackman type data became available

12:43

Bobby Witt Jr.: Where would you set the over/under right now on where I go in the 2019 draft?

12:43

Kiley McDaniel: 12.5 overall

12:47

Tim: Jesse Sanchez is reporting that Victor Victor Mesa and Victor Mesa Jr. just cleared and are now eligible to sign. Care to venture a guess (or have inside info) on where they land?

12:49

Kiley McDaniel: Orioles have ~$5M and Marlins have ~$4M, no other team is above $3M. So there’s your favorites. From the scuttlebutt, sounds like Marlins were going to sign Cuban RHP Sandy Gaston for over $2M then…didn’t. Could have been to save money for Victor Victor? Would expect the Orioles to offer the most, but there’s no telling what they’ll actually do, especially internationally.

12:49

andy: Has Grant Lavigne improved his stock at all this season? His power dropped off, but the walk rate and contact rate stayed pretty steady in a non-complex league. For a cold-weather hitter, that seems impressive, no?

12:49

Kiley McDaniel: Impressive, but very hitter friendly conditions

12:49

Kiley McDaniel: Maybe a slight upgrade, but not too much

12:49

Fangraphs reader: How do we get more information about the sub 40FV on THE BOARD?

12:49

Kiley McDaniel: Offseason lists will have more

12:49

Regular Guy: Thanks for the Chat….Georga Valera – does he have enough projection to be a middle of the order hitter?

12:50

Kiley McDaniel: Yes

12:50

Doug: What % of international prospects would you say are actually signed years before they’re even eligible to sign?

12:51

Kiley McDaniel: The overwhelming majority are just the seven figure or very high six figure types. There are more than a few 2021s that are done…so maybe 10 or so get done 1.5-2 years in advance?

12:51

Captain Clarence Oveur: Can you give us your vector on Victor (Victor) Mesa?  I know throwing comps on guys is kind of lazy, but who does he remind us of?

12:53

Kiley McDaniel: Draws a lot of Albert Almora comps. Line drive swing, plus run/throw/D, 50 raw, and some inconsistency in the contact against top pitching. Is seen as a low-end type everyday guy by most, helped by the instincts/feel, some say more 4th OF but that’s a minority opinion.

12:53

BoJackDonkeyMan: Were you ever a member of Bone Thugs and Harmony?

12:53

Kiley McDaniel: i miss my uncle charles ya’ll

12:54

The Old Buccaneer: Will the Braves be moving the Fire Frogs to North Port as well or will they stay us Kissimmee?

12:54

Kiley McDaniel: Don’t know for sure, but can’t imagine you build a fancy new stadium and leave it empty during the season

12:54

Brehmz: Why is the MLB so insistent on saying its trying to crack down on early signings for July 2 when everyone does it?

12:55

Kiley McDaniel: They aren’t trying to crack down on early signings. They’ve told teams directly that they don’t care about that. Now, why it’s still a rule that you can’t agree to early deals is a little confusing, because MLB could just change their mind and start enforcing that rule, but they’re at least clear at this point that they don’t care about that. It’s the package deals and identity/age/steroid/buscone fraud that they’re focusing on

12:56

MDN: What are your thoughts on Ryan Mountcastle? Bat good enough to make up for defense question marks?

12:57

Kiley McDaniel: Similar to Nick Castellanos in a number of ways. I think a little lesser of a player, but that general idea

12:59

Trev: Who is the first player in MLB history to be born in the year 2000 or later?  When do they debut?

12:59

Kiley McDaniel: I’ll go with Nolan Gorman, but there’s a lot of solid candidates for this

1:00

Kiley McDaniel: 2021

1:00

James: Eppler is having 2 MiLB OF work on pitching in instructs, not to make them true two way players, but just develop that aspect of the game. Will this be a trend? Having position players retain enough of their pitching abilities so that they can fill in during mop up games?

1:00

Kiley McDaniel: Smart teams are all looking into this, TB started the trend. NYY is doing it with Dermis Garcia

1:00

Manuel: Vidal Brujan is the hot name right now – is the BB% sustainable?

1:01

Kiley McDaniel: Another one on the rise. There’s some Albies/Madrigal elements here.

1:01

Aaron: With hard throwers going down with injuries more often like Reyes, Greene, Kopech, etc, does this hurt Daniel Espino’s chances of going top 5 or even top 10 in the 2019 draft?

1:01

Kiley McDaniel: Don’t think he was ever going to go that high

1:01

Hans: How would Tatis’ value be affected by a move to third? It’s a less valuable position but would his defense play up more over there?

1:01

Kiley McDaniel: It wouldn’t be a huge difference in value, but some

1:01

VivaLaVidal: Any chance Nate Lowe can be an above average starter in the bigs?

1:02

Kiley McDaniel: Wouldn’t count on it, because the bar is so high offensively for a possible platoon LHH 1B type

1:03

Pat: Which top 100 prospect has the most diversity in opinion around the league

1:03

Kiley McDaniel: Maybe Estevan Florial?

1:03

Chuncey Wiggins: Do you think robotic UCL’s are going to be a thing? And then to combat the unfair advantage hitters will install robotic visions, and then to combat that the pitchers will install robotic fingers to increase spin rate, and then the batters up the ante by installing a full robot body, and then…boom. It’s the RLB and not the MLB.

1:03

Kiley McDaniel: Oh. We’re already there

1:04

Davey Jones’ Lockerroom: What is the highest ranked pitching prospect with the last name Sullivan?  I want badly for the Mariners to trade for them so we can have Gilbert and Sullivan at the head of our rotation and many lighthearted chuckles about Penzance.

1:05

Kiley McDaniel: Man, things are a little different in here on Fridays

1:05

Kiley McDaniel: See you guys next week when we can talk about another new episode of the Untitled McDongehagen Project, some updates of THE BOARD and probably an article from me that will anger most of you. Bye!

We hoped you liked reading Kiley McDaniel Chat – 9/14/18 by Kiley McDaniel!

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Kiley McDaniel has worked as an executive and scout, most recently for the Atlanta Braves, also for the New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles and Pittsburgh Pirates. He's written for ESPN, Fox Sports and Baseball Prospectus. Follow him on twitter.

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