Mets Add Redding

In a vacuum, the Mets signing of Tim Redding looks fine. A one-year deal will pay Redding 2.25 million. Reasonable for a back-end starter with Redding’s history, but taken in context, the Mets cannot withdraw interest from Derek Lowe over this signing. As Eric outlined recently, the Mets rotation currently stands at something like this:

Johan Santana
John Maine
Mike Pelfrey
Jonathon Niese

With Redding thrown in either as the four or the five, depending on how high the Mets are on Niese. Eric concluded the Mets were near the Phillies rotation level, but simply being equal shouldn’t be the goal. The Mets are high on the win and revenue curve, suggesting they have added incentive to sign Lowe.

I previously stated that Redding’s signing isn’t bad in a vacuum, and it’s not. CHONE has him at a 4.98 FIP and Marcels at 4.77. If he falls in between that over ~ 160 innings, Redding is worth around 1 win. If he lives up to that, the Mets are getting a bargain deal. The problem is adding another sub-average starter to a rotation stricken with average all ready.

Lowe’s expectations are closer to 3.5 wins, adding him and Redding (in place of Niese) has the Mets looking at a 3-4 win improvement. Instead, they’re actually downgrading from Oliver Perez, albeit at a more suitable price and rolling with two 1-1.5 win starters in the back of their rotation.

Redding: solid addition, but not the one the Mets should be focused on.