NERD Game Scores: Ft. a Playoff-Odds Adjustment Experiment

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

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Most Highly Rated Game
San Francisco at New York NL | 13:10 ET*
Madison Bumgarner (145.0 IP, 83 xFIP-, 2.3 WAR) faces Bartolo Colon (141.2 IP, 100 xFIP-, 1.9 WAR). Because the author’s presence is required in southern Michigan even as he writes these words in the northern part of that same long state, he’s unable to provide an entirely detailed explanation for why today’s Giants and Mets contest is today’s most highly rated. In brief, however, what I’ve done is to employ a suggestion provided by reader DavidKB from last week — a suggestion to apply a playoff-odds adjustment all season long, but to weight that adjustment on a scale relative to the number of games remaining until the end of the season. So now teams which possess a chance of making the divisional series very close to 33% are likely to also possess a higher team NERD score.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Basically All of Them.

*It appears as though, after updating John Lackey‘s team from Boston to St. Louis, that today’s most highly rated game is actually Milwaukee at St. Louis — largely owing to how the clubs possess 41.4% and 50.8% odds, respectively, of reaching the divisional series. All other notes are relevant, however.

A Single and Brief Note
Regarding Today’s Free Game
Today’s free game features the same Giants-Mets game noted above, and can be accessed by means of this hyperlinked text.

Complete Schedule
Here’s the complete and very sortable table for all of today’s games. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and also the rest of the internet.

NERD Image 4

Away   SP Tm. Gm. Tm. SP   Home Time
Yu Darvish TEX 7 3 5 6 6 CLE Trevor Bauer 13:05
Jorge de la Rosa COL 2 4 4 3 5 DET Anibal Sanchez 13:08
Mike Leake CIN 6 3 5 4 6 MIA Jacob Turner 13:10
Mad. Bumgarner SF 9 9 6 2 5 NYN Bartolo Colon 13:10
Cole Hamels PHI 8 2 6 5 10 WAS Step’n Strasburg 13:35
Hisashi Iwakuma SEA 8 5 5 7 1 BAL Chris Tillman 13:35
Jered Weaver LAA 3 7 6 5 7 TB Jake Odorizzi 13:40
Kyle Gibson MIN 4 3 4 2 6 CHA Jose Quintana 14:10
Marcus Stroman TOR 9 9 6 4 0 HOU Scott Feldman 14:10
Matt Garza MIL 3 9 7 7 7 STL John Lackey 14:15
James Shields KC 6 4 5 5 7 OAK Scott Kazmir 16:05
Aaron Harang ATL 3 9 6 3 8 SD Tyson Ross 16:10
Edwin Jackson CHN 5 3 4 4 4 LAN Josh Beckett 16:10
Francisco Liriano PIT 7 9 6 3 4 AZ Trevor Cahill 16:10
David Phelps NYA 2 5 3 2 3 BOS Clay Buchholz 20:00

To learn how Game NERD Scores are calculated, click here.
* = Fewer than 20 IP, NERD at discretion of very handsome author.



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FYI
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FYI

John Lackey is not likely to be pitching for Boston today.

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