Prospect Reports: San Francisco Giants

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the San Francisco Giants farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on thes 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DET, KC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATL, MIA, NYM, PHI, WAS)
AL East (BAL, BOSNYY, TB, TOR)

Giants Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Christian Arroyo 21 AA 3B 2017 55
2 Tyler Beede 23 AA RHP 2018 50
3 Bryan Reynolds 21 A OF 2019 50
4 Ty Blach 26 MLB LHP 2016 45
5 Andrew Suarez 24 AA LHP 2018 45
6 Steven Okert 25 MLB LHP 2016 45
7 Joan Gregorio 24 AAA RHP 2017 45
8 Sandro Fabian 18 R OF 2020 45
9 Chris Stratton 26 MLB RHP 2016 45
10 Matt Krook 22 A- LHP 2019 40
11 Chris Shaw 23 AA 1B 2019 40
12 Jordan Johnson 23 A+ RHP 2019 40
13 Heath Quin 21 A+ OF 2019 40
14 Steven Duggar 22 AA OF 2017 40
15 Dan Slania 24 AA RHP 2017 40
16 C.J. Hinojosa 22 AA SS 2019 40
17 Reyes Moronta 23 A+ RHP 2019 40
18 Melvin Adon 22 A- RHP 2020 40
19 Jalen Miller 19 A 2B 2020 40
20 Garrett Williams 22 A- LHP 2019 40
21 Sam Coonrod 24 AA RHP 2018 40

55 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2013 from Hernando HS (FL)
Age 22 Height 5’11 Weight 185 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
50/70 40/40 30/40 40/40 45/50 60/60

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Slashed .224/.278/.294 at home in 2016, .315/.348/.438 on the road. Worth +11 runs at combination of shortstop and third base this year per Clay Davenport

Scouting Report
Arroyo was viewed as a bit of a reach when he was drafted because he was already very likely to move off of shortstop and quite unlikely to develop prototypical, corner-worthy power. Some scouts wanted to give him a try behind the plate because it was the only place they thought his bat would profile. While scouts were right about Arroyo’s power projection, it may prove less relevant to his future than originally anticipated because his feel to hit compensates so well for it.

Despite a down year on paper — largely a result of the poor hitting environment in Richmond — Arroyo’s feel for contact remains superb and he still projects as a .300-plus hitter with supernatural feel for doubles-producing contact down both lines and to both gaps. He has terrific hand-eye coordination and is remarkably short to the baseball, though his bat speed is just about average. Arroyo actually cut his strikeout rate and increased his walk rate in 2016, though the latter remains poor. As is the case with many high-contact hitters, a large portion of Arroyo’s balls in play are hit on the ground and this may be an issue as he sees better defenses at upper levels.

While Arroyo has continued to spend a considerable amount of time at shortstop — and indeed has the arm strength and body control for the position — he’s already a below-average runner without the necessary range for short. He projects best at third base, a destination made even more obvious when considering the middle infielders San Francisco has at the big-league level, as well as the obvious path cleared for Arroyo by the Matt Duffy trade in July. Arroyo should be at least an average defender at third base in time.

Arroyo projects as a Martin Prado type of player at peak, someone who primarily lines up at third base but can kick around to other positions should the need arise and who also makes lots of hard, low-lying contact. That’s an above-average major leaguer and Arroyo is close, especially with Duffy gone, to wearing a Giants uniform.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 2.4 WAR

christian-arroyo-likelihood-of-outcomes

50 FV Prospects

2. Tyler Beede, RHP
Drafted: 1st Round, 2015 from Vanderbilt
Age 24 Height 6’4 Weight 200 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Cutter Command
55/60 50/50 50/55 50/50 40/45

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Led Eastern League with 2.81 ERA. Had 1.63 ERA at home in 2016, 4.34 away from Richmond. Reduced Double-A walk rate from 11.4% in 2015 to 8.7% in 2016.

Scouting Report
Beede was drafted 21st overall by Toronto in the historically good 2011 draft but did not sign and instead went to Vanderbilt where he won a national title in 2014. He maintained his stock through college despite dealing with some strike throwing issues as a junior and ended up being drafted 14th overall by San Francisco and signing for a few hundred thousand dollars more in 2014 than the Blue Jays were willing to offer in 2011.

Beede’s velocity was down in 2015, especially late in the year, as he prioritized sink on the fastball and learned a cutter. While reports suggest that his stuff waned as 2016 went along as well, the difference was marginal and he was mostly 91-94 and occasionally touching 96 or 97 this summer. His changeup is his most promising secondary offering, flashing above average when it has fading movement to it, but the pitch lacks consistency. Beede also throws a traditional 12-6 breaker in the low 80s that is usually average. It’s difficult to create good depth on a curveball as hard as Beede’s, but when he does the pitch is plus. The relatively young upper-80s cutter is average and has good shape but lacks the explosive, late bite required to miss bats in on lefties or the slider-like length to run away from righties, though Beede has shown an ability to command the cutter to his glove side.

Though he’s had strike-throwing issues since college, Beede’s control took a substantive step forward this year and he projects for average command/control now. Unless you project liberally on the cutter because it’s a newer weapon, there isn’t any dominant aspect of Beede’s repertoire indicative of a mid-rotation starter or better. While his ceiling a tick above it, his most likely outcome is that of a fourth starter.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 6.1 WAR

tyler-beede-likelihood-of-outcomes

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2016 from Vanderbilt
Age 22 Height 6’3 Weight 200 Bat/Throw S/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/50 50/55 45/50 50/50 45/50 40/40

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Slashed .330/.461/.603 as junior at Vanderbilt. Recorded 26% strikeout rate in pro ball after signing.

Scouting Report
Reynolds seemed likely to go somewhere toward the end of the first round in June but fell into the middle of round two reportedly due to signability concerns that are somewhat inexplicable for a college junior. Reynolds is a Boras client and did end up getting an overslot bonus.

Scouts who saw Reynolds in pro ball think the Giants got a steal despite his somewhat concerning whiff rates. While he lacks exceptional bat control, he has good hitter’s timing and natural loft to his swing and should one day hit for power befitting a corner outfielder — even if it’s more of the doubles variety than for big homer totals. What scouts did not see from Reynolds after signing (until instructional league, anyway) was the patience he showed at Vanderbilt where he walked 49 times in 224 at-bats as a junior. In 214 pro at-bats, he walked just 14 times. I don’t think there’s anything to glean from this, but the contrast is worth noting if only as a reminder to monitor Reynolds’ approach closely next year.

He can’t play center field, as he lacks both the pure straight-line speed and instincts for the position, but he could be above average in a corner where a future average hit tool and average game power (consisting more of doubles than over-the-fence production) should play just fine. If Reynolds can return to the pitch-grinding walk machine he was at Vandy, then his floor is probably a Seth Smith type of player — Reynolds had some serious platoon issues this summer — but with enough defensive value to be worth playing everyday.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 0.6 WAR

bryan-reynolds-likelihood-of-outcomes

45 FV Prospects

4. Ty Blach, LHP
Drafted: 5th Round, 2012 from Creighton
Age 26 Height 6’2 Weight 200 Bat/Throw R/L
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command
50/50 50/50 40/40 45/50 60/60

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Held lefties to line of .189/.236/.244 in 2016.

Scouting Report
Blach attended Regis Jesuit High School in Colorado, one of the state’s most preeminent producers of professional baseball talent, and then went to college at Creighton where he became part of the Jays’ rotation as a freshman. He has been remarkably healthy throughout his entire career, making 20 or more starts in each of the last five years dating back to his junior year of college.

We saw the best of Blach during his October 1st performance against the Dodgers in which he allowed three hits over eight shutout innings. Blach’s fastball sits 90-92, will touch 94 and is subject to various manipulations that will emphasize cut or sink. He commands the fastball well, especially to his glove side, which allows him to tie up right-handed hitters despite just average velocity. His slider is average, blunt but long, and good enough to miss bats if he locates it which Blach is generally able to do. He also mixes in a fringe changeup that lacks movement but plays fine when Blach maintains his arm speed; his short arm action aids in this, as well. He also features a loopy, get-me-over curveball in the mid-70s. He projects as a durable command/control back-end starter who fields his position very well.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 1.8 WAR

ty-blach-likelihood-of-outcomes

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2015 from Miami
Age 24 Height 6’1 Weight 200 Bat/Throw L/L
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command
50/50 50/50 50/55 50/55

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Allowed .318 OBP against left-handed batters in 2016 and .312 mark versus righties. Posted 4.99 ERA on road, 2.62 ERA at home.

Scouting Report
The epitome of the advanced Floridian lefty archetype which seems to find its way into every draft, Suarez has been renowned for his polish rather than his pure stuff since he was in high school. Suarez has been drafted three times, spurning Toronto (as Beede did) as a ninth-rounder in 2011 and then Washington after the Nationals picked him in 2014’s second round. His stock held firm throughout his redshirt junior year at Miami and the Giants drafted him in the second round of the 2015 draft.

Suarez has retained the same low-90s fastball he’s had since high school, an average offering that occasionally creeps past 93 and features some late movement. His repertoire includes a host of average secondaries with the slider flashing above and projecting there at maturity. Suarez locates the slider well and it’s often his put-away pitch versus both left- and right-handed hitters. Though his changeup is just average (Suarez maintains his fastball’s arm speed when he throws it and it has some fade to it), it gives him an viable second weapon against righties who have to worry about well located fastballs and sliders as well. He’ll show an occasional curveball, but it’s clearly Suarez’s least favorite option.

Suarez projects as a pitchability back-end starter and is pretty close to the majors. He carries more risk than Blach due to a spottier injury history, which includes a labrum surgery during his freshman year at Miami and an oblique strain during his draft year.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 3.0 WAR

andrew-suarez-likelihood-of-outcomes

6. Steven Okert, LHP
Drafted: 4th Round, 2012 from Oklahoma
Age 25 Height 6’3 Weight 210 Bat/Throw L/L
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Cutter Command
55/55 60/60 40/45 50/50 50/55

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Recorded 3.80 ERA at Triple-A despite .370 BABIP

Scouting Report
Okert is a pretty well known commodity at this point. A low-slot lefty who’ll touch 95 with an average upper-80s cutter and plus, low-80s slider that he runs away from left-handed hitters. He tries to work his cutter in on righties and this approach has superseded use of a changeup that’s now rarely seen. If he leaves a mistake out over the plate, though, the cutter isn’t usually nasty enough for him to get away with it. He has a LOOGY floor but has the stuff to be a setup type if he can concoct a few different ways to get righties out. If his stuff can somehow return to its 2014 form (when everything was a half-grade better than it is now), then he could see high-leverage innings.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 1.8 WAR

steven-okert-likelihood-of-outcomes

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2010 from Dominican Republic
Age 25 Height 6’7 Weight 180 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command
60/60 50/55 40/45 40/45

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Produced 26% strikeout rate at Triple-A in over 100 innings there.

Scouting Report
Joan Gregorio is a unique beast. A skyscraping 6-foot-7 with a massive lower half, Gregorio combines an atypical arm slot and big-time extension to get the most of a low-90s fastball that will top out at 94 when he’s starting. He spent much of 2015 in the Richmond bullpen where he’d show an occasional 96. It’s backed up by an average mid-80s slider that plays up because of the funk in Gregorio’s delivery. It misses bats when it’s located to Gregorio’s glove side.

Despite a full-time return to starting in 2016, several of Gregorio’s traits indicate a future in the bullpen. His command has improved since 2014 but is still below average, he’s had back and oblique problems in the past and lacks a third pitch. Gregorio hasn’t developed much feel for his changeup in seven pro seasons and turns 25 in January. Optimistic prognosticators could point to Gregorio’s size as a hindrance of development and expect improved command and changeup feel to come later than it does with most other arms. I think recent continued improvement in his command could mean more is coming there, but think the clock has struck midnight on the changeup and that Gregorio’s destiny lies in the bullpen, where his two-pitch mix would play up not only because he’d likely see an uptick in velo but because hitters would get fewer looks at his deceptive delivery. He projects as a potential setup man for me.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 4.2 WAR

joan-gregorio-likelihood-of-outcomes

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Dominican Republic
Age 19 Height 6’1 Weight 180 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/60 40/50 30/45 45/40 40/50 45/50

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Hit .340/.364/.522 in Rookie-level Arizona League this year.

Scouting Report
Not all scouts are sold on Fabian’s power projection because he lacks the broad-shouldered build of a prototypical corner bat. I think there’s room for enough mass to produce average raw power at maturity and am pretty confident in Fabian’s ability to tap into it in games because his feel for the barrel is so remarkable. Because his natural bat-to-ball ability is so good, Fabian’s approach can be gluttonous and he’ll settle for inferior, early-count contact rather than waiting for something he can really drive. This is fine for now, but I do think he’ll need to be more selective as he starts seeing better stuff than he saw in the AZL. I think he has the physical tools to be a plus hitter with fringe-average game power, enough to profile in an outfield corner. He’s short to the ball, has solid barrel control and a swing plane that allows for some lift without prohibiting contact.

Defensively, Fabian profiles in an outfield corner. He doesn’t run well enough for center field and his arm doesn’t command placement in right field, though it could be passable there. The average big-league outfielder hit .257/.326/.422 in 2016. I like Fabian’s chances of attaining that line and becoming an average everyday player, but his proximity to the majors and thirsty approach make him quite risky and suppress his FV.

Drafted: 1st Round, 2012 from Mississippi St.
Age 26 Height 6’3 Weight 190 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command
50/50 50/50 40/45 45/50 50/55

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Held left-handed batters to .219/.307/.309 line in 2016.

Scouting Report
Stratton was a first-round pick in 2012 out of Mississippi State. It’s odd for college arms to barbecue in the minors for four years and still be considered prospects, but Stratton’s four-pitch mix could play at the back of a rotation. His fastball has been averaging around 92 in Fall League and he was up to 94 in his instructional league tuneup for the AFL. He leans heavily on an average slider in the 82-84 range which has just enough length to miss bats. His changeup and curveball are both fringe to average and he has above-average command/control. Stratton is 26 and lacks any modicum of projection but he has a fifth starter’s profile and will probably net a good amount of big-league innings in 2017.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 2.0 WAR

chris-stratton-likelihood-of-outcomes

40 FV Prospects

10. Matt Krook, LHP
Drafted: 4th Round, 2016 from Oregon
Age 22 Height 6’4 Weight 210 Bat/Throw L/L
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command
60/60 55/60 60/60 45/50 30/40

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Recorded nearly as many walks (33) as strikeouts (39) over 35 innings in Short-Season Northwest League.

Scouting Report
If you’re tired of the endless parade of pitchability arms in the Giants system then Matt Krook and his high-maintenance cannon are for you. Krook’s stuff is so good that scouts who saw him at Oregon this spring at times saw multiple plus-plus pitches. They also saw such wildness that Krook had to be removed from the Ducks’ weekend rotation at midseason because of excessive walks. This was not the nadir of Krook’s tumultuous amateur career, which included several violent peaks and valleys. Krook was Miami’s first-round pick (35th overall) in 2013 and had agreed to a deal but the Marlins took the offer off the table when the post-draft physical revealed a shoulder injury. He went to Oregon and dominated as a freshman, striking out 60 in 45.1 innings before an elbow injury, which required Tommy John, ended his season. He missed his sophomore year recovering from TJ. His junior year was tumultuous but, at times, Krook would show mid-90s velo with a 70 curveball, plus slider and fringe changeup. His arm action is longer now than it was early in the spring and his arm acceleration is not as explosive, resulting in more low-90s velo than true bat-missing heat. Krook’s stock is as amorphous as any pitcher’s in the minor leagues. He could come out next spring with one of the better repertoires in baseball and rocket through the minors or he could break and never be heard from again.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 0.2 WAR

matt-krook-likelihood-of-outcomes

11. Chris Shaw, 1B
Drafted: 1st Round, 2015 from Boston College
Age 23 Height 6’3 Weight 229 Bat/Throw L/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/40 60/60 40/50 40/30 30/40 55/55

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Slugged .544 in Cal League, .414 in Eastern League.

Scouting Report
You’d be hard-pressed to find a scout or executive who’d say, “Why yes, I do like prospects limited to first base, especially ones who are below average there, defensively!” Scouts are down on Shaw who, despite hulking raw power to his pull side, has a stiff, handsy swing that doesn’t consistently incorporate his lower half and very little bat control. Pending adjustments (which Shaw, who isn’t very athletic, is no lock to make) scouts expect holes in Shaw’s swing to be exploited at the upper levels. Shaw has plus raw power and even if he’s only a below-average hitter at maturity he’d still likely hit 18-plus homers at the big-league level, but even that probably isn’t enough to profile as a regular at first base. There are some who’d like to see him given a try in an outfield corner, where Shaw’s above-average arm would be more useful than it is at first. Others doubt Shaw has the range for the outfield right now and he’ll almost certainly lack it at maturity as his massive frame continues to fill out. Shaw played the outfield at Boston College, but has played first base monogamously since signing.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 1.3 WAR

chris-shaw-likelihood-of-outcomes

Drafted: 23rd Round, 2014 from Cal St. Northridge
Age 23 Height 6’2 Weight 175 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command
55/55 40/50 55/60 40/45

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Recorded 111 strikeouts in 120 innings in 2016.

Scouting Report
Johnson pitched all of 9.2 innings combined between his freshman and sophomore years at Cal State Northridge due to injury and only struck out 39 in 72.2 innings in his draft year. He had a coming-out party in the increasingly scouted Arizona Rookie League in 2015 where he mowed through everyone he saw with mid-90s heat and a plus changeup. Despite being old for Rookie-level ball, scouts were willing to project on the curveball, as well, because he had so few reps in college. Johnson posted a 32:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 23 AZL innings and was in the Cal League by the end of the year.

This year, the quality of his stuff was down across the board, with the fastball more in the 90-93 range. Some scouts are hesitant about his delivery, especially when viewed in concert with the injury history. Johnson cuts himself off and throws across his body, the arm action is long and he can have difficulty maintaining his release point at times; but he threw an acceptable amount of strikes throughout the year. If his 2015 stuff comes back then he has a chance to be a No. 4 starter, if not he’s more of a swingman, sixth-starter type of arm.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 2.4 WAR

jordan-johnson-likelihood-of-outcomes

13. Heath Quin, OF
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2016 from Samford
Age 22 Height 6’3 Weight 220 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/40 55/60 40/50 45/40 40/45 55/55

Relevant/Interesting Metrics:
Slashed .343/.452/.682 with 21 homers at Samford in ’16.

Scouting Report
The video-game statline Quinn posted at Samford this year was largely due to his plus raw power, which plays in games to all fields, and partially due to Southern Conference pitching. Quinn swings hard and every bit of contact he makes is also hard. He’s an average runner and defender in the outfield with an above-average arm. He has contact issues, something I think is primarily due to a lack of bat control and a general stiffness and inelegance in his hitting actions. His approach is patient and he looked to have good offspeed recognition during instructional league, so I think the solid walk rates he’s posted as a pro will hold water, even if he swings and misses a lot. Power-before-hit, three-true-outcomes hitters aren’t usually the Giants modus operandi when it comes to the draft, but they have one now in Quinn, who I think will set the Cal League on fire next year. It’s a corner-only profile, though, and because we’re not talking about elite raw power, Quinn is going to have to hit a little bit, too. Not everyone is confident that he will.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 1.1 WAR

heath-quinn-likelihood-of-outcomes

Drafted: 6th Round, 2015 from Clemson
Age 23 Height 6’2 Weight 190 Bat/Throw L/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
55/60 50/50 30/30 60/55 40/45 60/60

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Slashed .321/.394/.432 in 60 games at Double-A Richmond. Hit just one home run.

Scouting Report
A well manicured approach at the plate and excellent bat-to-ball skills have yielded excellent results at the plate for Duggar since his freshman season at Clemson. He was a career .299 hitter for the Tigers and has posted an identical mark as a pro while maintaining a high walk rate despite little game power. Duggar has good breaking ball recognition, strike-zone awareness and grinds out quality at-bats. He has a mature, all-fields approach to hitting and projects as a plus hitter at maturity. He’s a plus runner underway, but his speed doesn’t play that well on the bases nor in the field where not all evaluators are sold on him as a center fielder. Duggar only projects for 30 game power, and if he can’t stay in center field then a lot of pressure is going to be put on his hit tool and ability to reach base. Hitters without power are often pitched more aggressively at upper levels and it’s possible some of Duggar’s approach will be rendered moot as he continues to ascend. He has a plus arm and split time evenly between center and right field this year.

I think Duggar’s band of potential outcomes is relatively narrow, something between a below-average regular and fourth outfielder. The bat-to-ball skills and approach are going to be of major-league quality while the arm and wheels should also be situational assets.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 2.2 WAR

steven-duggar-likelihood-of-outcomes

15. Dan Slania, RHP
Drafted: 5th Round, 2013 from Notre Dame
Age 25 Height 6’5 Weight 265 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command
55/55 55/55 40/40 45/50 50/55

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Had 27.5% strikeout rate during 13-inning cup of coffee at Triple-A.

Scouting Report
Possessing the size and reliability of a 90s Volvo, Slania pairs a 92-93 mph fastball that will touch 95 with an above-average, vertically oriented slider. He has a short, deceptive arm action and generates a good bit of tail on his heater. His changeup is competent and he locates well, making him an option against lefties, as well. He’s a pretty solid middle-relief bet.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 2.3 WAR

daniel-slania-likelihood-of-outcomes

Drafted: 11th Round, 2015 from Texas
Age 22 Height 5’9 Weight 180 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/50 45/50 30/40 40/40 40/45 55/55

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Posted .824 OPS in Cal League, .649 OPS after promotion to Double-A. Was +18 defender at shortstop in 2016 per Clay Davenport.

Scouting Report
Hinojosa was a high-profile recruit at Texas but he let his body get away from him during his time in Austin and his stock was way down as a junior. His offensive production dropped each year at Texas and as a result he lasted until the 11th round in 2015. Since entering pro ball, Hinojosa has gotten into much better shape and his physical tools have returned. He has good feel to hit, tracking pitches well and recognizing breaking balls early in flight. His game-power projection falls short of the typical second-base profile — and he lacks the range to play shortstop in a full-time capacity — but even a utility man projection is eons beyond what anyone who saw him at Texas in 2015 expected.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 2.2 WAR

cj-hinojosa-likelihood-of-outcomes

17. Reyes Moronta, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2010 from Dominican Republic
Age 24 Height 6’0 Weight 175 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Command
70/70 50/55 40/45

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Recorded 93 strikeouts in 59 Cal League innings.

Scouting Report
Moronta and his squat frame toiled away in the lowest levels of the minors for four years without much success, but he broke out this year, albeit as a 23-year old in High-A. He has upper-90s heat that plays up because of a deceptive, high-effort delivery and above-average slider projection. His body has zero projection and he’s very clearly limited to relief, but he has made strides in controlling the baseball and could be a setup type of arm at maturity.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 1.9 WAR

reyes-moronta-likelihood-of-outcomes

18. Melvin Adon, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Dominican Republic
Age 23 Height 6’3 Weight 195 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command
70/70 40/45 40/50 30/45

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Recorded a 100 on radar guns.

Scouting Report
Adon was touching 100 during extended spring training, but struggled to find the strike zone. He was so undercooked for a 22-year-old that scouts anticipated an assignment to the AZL despite his age. He was sent to the Northwest League and struggled there. When he came back for instructional league, Adon’s body looked better than it had during the spring and he flashed better strike-throwing ability before things fell apart in an instructional-league finale that included four walks and a hit batter in two innings. Things unravel for Adon when his arm action gets long and his slot drops down to a near sidearm level. When he’s driving the ball down a bit more his fastball sits 95-98 with late arm-side action and is nearly unhittable when he locates. His slider and changeup are both below average and I think the changeup has more potential as Adon doesn’t really show the natural ability to get around the baseball and spin his slider. He projects as a reliever for me. He’ll be 23 in June, hasn’t even pitched above the Northwest League, and hasn’t had on-paper success anywhere. He’s worth following because the arm strength is so incredible and because he showed signs of strike-throwing life during instructional league.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 0.3 WAR

melvin-adon-likelihood-of-outcomes

Drafted: 3rd Round, 2015 from Riverwood HS (GA)
Age 20 Height 5’10 Weight 173 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/55 35/45 30/40 55/50 45/55 40/40

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Has posted .277 career OBP in 156 minor-league games.

Scouting Report
Despite athletic, twitchy actions and above-average straight-line speed, Miller projects defensively to second base because of a relative lack of arm strength. An average arm usually doesn’t cut it at short, but actions and athleticism like Miller’s are rare at second base and he could be a plus defender there at maturity. He spent most all of 2016 at second base after playing shortstop and a single game in center field after signing in 2015. His assignment to Low-A Augusta in 2016 was extremely aggressive and Miller struggled to perform with the bat. Despite a horrendous career minor-league hitting line, Miller has shown the ability to make strong contact and some still project him to be an above-average or plus hitter. He doesn’t have an especially projectable frame, and it’s unlikely that he’ll add much power as he ages, which could be prohibitive for profiling as a starting second baseman. It emphasizes the need for both Miller’s hit tool and his defense at second base to reach their reasonable peaks. He’ll likely return to Augusta in 2017. He’ll still be a bit young for the level, but needs to start showing improved results to retain prospecthood. He signed for an above-slot $1.1 million.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 0.2 WAR

jalen-miller-likelihood-of-outcomes

Drafted: 7th Round, 2016 from Oklahoma State
Age 22 Height 6’1 Weight 205 Bat/Throw L/L
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command
50/55 55/60 40/45 30/40

Relevant/Interesting Metrics:
Recorded 95 strikeouts and 61 walks in 73 innings at Oklahoma State.

Scouting Report
The enigmatic Williams was a high-profile amateur arm already at age 12 when he dominated the Little League World Series in the summer of 2007. He struck out 42 hitters in 16 innings of work, including 17 straight to start a game against Coon Rapids, Minnesota. Later, in college, Williams was viewed as a potential first-rounder even as an underclassman but struggled so badly to throw strikes that he barely pitched during his time at Oklahoma State, amassing just 31 innings combined during his sophomore and junior years. Despite that, scouts were intrigued by a low-90s fastball that would top out around 94 and Williams’ feel for a potentially plus curveball. Scouts who saw Williams after he signed concurred. He’s a project, but velo and breaking-ball feel like his are rare, especially from a lefty.

21. Sam Coonrod, RHP
Drafted: 5th Round, 2014 from SIU Carbondale
Age 24 Height 6’2 Weight 190 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Command
60/60 50/55 40/45

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Experienced decline in strikeout rate, from 24% in 2015 to 16% in 2016.

Scouting Report
Now 24, Coonrod remains a two-pitch guy with below-average control and profiles as a reliever. His fastball is a heavy 93-95, has touched 97 for me in the past, and he has some feel for an average slider. The change and control are both below average. Coonrod is a bit stiff and not the kind of athlete that merits aggressive command projection. He profiles in middle relief.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 1.4 WAR

samuel-coonrod-likelihood-of-outcomes

*****

Other Prospects of Note (In Order of Preference)

Aramis Garcia, C (video) – Garcia suffered a facial fracture in a collision this year and his offensive production was down. He projects for an average hit tool and below-average game power given the way his swing is constituted right now. Defensively, he looks viable and at times impressive. He popped 1.88-1.91 several times for me over the last week — though a few of those were wide of the bag — and has displayed improved receiving and ball blocking as he’s gotten more comfortable with the Scottsdale pitching staff. He has a backup catcher’s skill set but, as a college bat that still hasn’t played above A-ball, is a bit of a risk.

Kelvin Beltre, INF, 1.2 KATOH+ WAR – Other than his bat, Beltre will show you average-or-better tools across the board at times but has had injury issues throughout much of his career. He is talented enough to follow, but not healthy enough to make the 40 FV section for me.

Johneshwy Fargas, OF, 0.4 KATOH+ (video) – Fargas is a plus-plus runner with physical projection who flashes gap power and impact range in center field, but who is also extremely raw in all facets of the game. He’ll probably need to make several adjustments as he climbs through the minors. He essentially repeated Low-A in 2016 and then scuffled in a month of Cal League play at summer’s end.

Jacob Heyward, OF (video) – Heyward was young for a college draftee and didn’t turn 21 until August. He was far too advanced for the AZL and raked after signing though his strikeout issues from Miami persisted. He projects for above-average raw power, average defense, arm and speed, but the bat is extremely raw.

Ray Black, RHP (video) – He’ll touch 103 but can’t stay healthy. This year it was back spasms and a bone spur.

Mac Marshall, LHP, 0.5 KATOH+ (video) – Marshall has 30 control but is a lefty up to 94 with breaking-ball feel. There might be more velocity in there if San Francisco moves him to the bullpen. If there is, he only needs to see a grade’s worth of development in his control to be a big-league relief candidate. Marshall turns 21 in January.

Gio Brusa, OF, 0.2 KATOH+ (video) – Switch-hitting enigma with solid raw power who tantalized amateur scouts as an underclassman on Cape Cod but never hit consistently at Pacific. He went backwards as a junior and returned to Pacific for his senior year and started hitting again but scouts are concerned about the stiffness and length in his swing, especially from the left side.

Austin Slater, UTIL, 4.2 KATOH+ (video) – Slater has had success at upper levels, especially against left-handed pitching, and his positional versatility is an asset even if he’s a 40 or 45 everywhere he plays. He has solid hand-eye and can put the bat on the ball, but the game power he’s shown in the minors likely won’t carry into the big leagues.

Clayton Blackburn, RHP, 2.6 KATOH+ – I’ve long been lower on Blackburn than most, as I don’t think he has the stuff to be anything more than a fifth or sixth starter. He has above-average command and his curveball has great depth, but the fastball velo is below average, his slider lacks tilt and I’m not sure the curveball will play in the majors like it did in the minors at such a low velocity.

Jose Marte, RHP – A 20-year-old Dominican righty who was up to 95 in instructional league and flashing an above average curveball. He’s a below-average athlete with some control issues but is an interesting low-level prospect.

Matt Gage, LHP, 3.9 KATOH+ – Gage had success as a starter at Richmond this year but scouts like him as a lefty specialist even though he had some pretty startling reverse splits this year. Pat Misch was one of his top Mahalanobis comps.

Camilo Doval, RHP (video) – Projectable teenage Dominican arm with fringe athleticism and high-maintenance delivery but was up to 92 for me during instructs with some slider feel.

Sandro Cabrera, LHP, 0.2 KATOH+ (video) – Athletic lefty with some projection, mostly 88-91 with some slider feel, but was a tad old for the AZL.

Charles Owen, RHP – Short righty was up to 94 during instructional league with an average slider. Owen was a 19th-rounder in 2015 and barely pitched this year. He could thrive in a relief role.

All of Jose Vizcaino Jr (0.9 KATOH+), Ryan Howard (1.0 KATOH+ and video) and Brandon Van Horn have drawn some utility ceilings from scouts. Vizcaino has the best bat of the three while Van Horn has the best actions at short and Howard is a middling marriage of bat and glove who had an inconsistent instructional league.

Nowhere Man
Rodolfo Martinez, RHP, 0.4 KATOH+ (Video)
Martinez was up to 101 at the Cal League All Star Game this year and I don’t think I had ever seen him throw a fastball below 96 mph until recently. He was 92-93 for me last week in the Fall League and has been getting absolutely shelled out here. Martinez was a prospect because of how hard he threw and he isn’t doing that right now. He has lost two full grades on his fastball since I saw him mid-year. Until we at least figure out exactly what’s going on here, he isn’t a prospect.

Cistulli’s Guy
Selected by Carson Cistulli from any player who received less than a 40 FV.

Miguel Gomez, 3B
Both Joan Gregorio and C.J. Hinojosa appeared with some frequency among the Fringe Five this year. Both also receive future-value grades of 40 or greater from Longenhagen, however, rendering them ineligible from this untidy corner of the Giants organizational list. The consolation prize is Gomez, a former catcher who played both second and third base this year. He doesn’t appear to be an asset (yet) at either position according to the metrics. The bat is promising, however: Gomez has produced both strikeout rates and isolated-power figures better than league average at basically every stop. The capacity to handle third, it would seem, is the deciding factor in his future.

*****

Additional Viewing
Head over to Jen Ramos’ YouTube page where you can do some film study on Reynolds, Quinn, Moronta, Krook and, if you’re feeling nostalgic/masochistic, one of Tim Lincecum’s minor-league starts from this year.

System Overview
Though it lacks any foreseeable star power aside from Arroyo, San Francisco’s system has depth poised to make some big-league contribution. Much of the system projects to a back-end/relief/utility role, though it is worth noting that the Giants have consistently produced players who have exceeded industry expectations for the last several years. One trend of note throughout the system is the Giants’ propensity to draft college players, specifically college players who have had downturns in stock later in their amateur careers. Despite relatively vanilla prospects up top, this system has quite a few boom-or-bust prospects in Krook, Adon, Williams and Marte which make the system more intriguing than it is objectively robust.

We hoped you liked reading Prospect Reports: San Francisco Giants by Eric Longenhagen!

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Eric Longenhagen is from Catasauqua, PA and currently lives in Tempe, AZ. He spent four years working for the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, two with Baseball Info Solutions and two contributing to prospect coverage at ESPN.com. Previous work can also be found at Sports On Earth, CrashburnAlley and Prospect Insider.

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jonvanderlugt
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jonvanderlugt

These lists are kick-ass, Eric. The breadth of information is really fascinating to dig into.

Even if your FV system is still ambiguous to some, you cover the bases regarding risk assessment pretty well by including your tool grades and KATOH+.

i.e., it’s a little easier for me to piece together that balance by seeing a high/low KATOH+ projection along with how loud or quiet the prospect’s tools are, so thanks for that.