Steamer Projects: Baltimore Orioles Prospects

Yesterday, polite and Canadian and polite Marc Hulet published his 2014 organizational prospect list for the Baltimore Orioles.

It goes without saying that, in composing such a list, Hulet has considered the overall future value those prospects might be expected to provide either to the Orioles or whatever other organizations to which they might someday belong.

What this brief post concerns isn’t overall future value, at all, but rather such value as the prospects from Hulet’s list might provide were they to play, more or less, a full major-league season in 2014.

Other prospect projections: Arizona / Chicago AL / Houston / Miami / Minnesota / New York NL / San Diego / San Francisco / Seattle / Toronto.

Steamer Projections: Baltimore Batting Prospects
Below are the current 2014 projections for select Baltimore batting prospects. All projections have been prorated to 550 plate appearances (and 450 for catchers) for sake of uniformity. Defensive figures (denoted by Def) account both for positional adjustment and UZR, and are presented relative to league average. Note that, in many cases, defensive value has been calculated entirely by positional adjustment based on the relevant player’s minor-league defensive starts in 2013. Prospects are listed in order of projected WAR. The symbol # denotes the relevant prospect’s ranking on Hulet’s list. Figures might diverge slightly (although not signficantly) from those which appear on player pages.

# Name Age POS PA BB% K% BABIP wRC+ BsR Off Def* WAR
14 Dariel Alvarez 25 RF 550 6.5% 16.4% .297 103 0 2 -6 1.5
10 Henry Urrutia 27 COF 550 6.6% 15.5% .320 102 0 1 -6 1.4
15 Francisco Peguero 26 OF 550 3.8% 17.2% .315 85 0 -9 0 0.9
4 Jonathan Schoop 22 2B 550 6.0% 17.4% .273 81 0 -12 1 0.8
8 Michael Ohlman 23 C 450 8.0% 20.2% .258 63 0 -19 8 0.4

Steamer Projections: Baltimore Pitching Prospects
Below are the 2014 projections for select Baltimore pitching prospects. Projections for starting pitchers have been prorated to 150 innings; for relievers, to 50 innings. Prospects are listed in order of projected WAR, which has been calculated by using kwERA — that is, an ERA estimator which utilizes only strikeouts and walks — so as to remove the vagaries of park effects, and probably also because the author has no idea what he’s doing. Listed ages are as of June 30, 2014. The symbol # denotes the relevant prospect’s ranking on Hulet’s list. Figures might diverge slightly (although not signficantly) from those which appear on player pages.

# Name Age Hand IP K% BB% kwERA kwERA- WAR
2 Kevin Gausman 23 RHP 150 20.9% 7.5% 3.70 96 2.2
1 Dylan Bundy 21 RHP 150 20.1% 9.4% 4.03 104 1.6
6 Mike Wright 24 RHP 150 17.4% 8.7% 4.27 110 1.2
3 Eduardo Rodriguez 21 LHP 150 17.2% 11.8% 4.66 120 0.5
11 Zach Davies 21 RHP 150 15.7% 10.8% 4.72 122 0.4
7 Tim Berry 23 LHP 150 14.8% 11.2% 4.88 126 0.1
13 Branden Kline 22 RHP 150 13.5% 11.0% 5.01 129 -0.1

• Because he’s myopic in as many ways as possible, the author neglected to inquire of Steamer creator Jared Cross what factors, expressly, might be contributing to Cuban defector Dariel Alvarez‘s promising offensive projection — owing to how, that is, Alvarez has recorded just 83 plate appearances in affiliated baseball. Cautious optimism, then, is perhaps what the reader should maintain — both for Dariel Alvarez and also for all of life.

Michael Ohlman received considerable attention yesterday in these electronic pages — the subject of an interview by David Laurila and defensive analysis care of Nathaniel Stoltz. The projection here takes for granted that Ohlman is a league-average catcher — which is probably not something, really, that anyone should be taking for granted. How far below average he is defensively, is probably a more appropriate question.

• The reader might suspect, owing to his 5.66 ERA and 138 ERA- last season, that young right-hander Kevin Gausman‘s projection is bit on the optimistic side of things. In fact, it appears as though Gausman performed quite admirably by those measurements which become stable rather quickly, recording a strikeout and walk rates of 24.4% and 6.5%, respectively, over 47.2 innings in 2013.

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