The Case for Keeping Andrew McCutchen

About a month ago at this site, Dave Cameron argued that any offers for Andrew McCutchen this offseason would likely reflect McCutchen’s potential for a rebound from a poor and (until recently) anomalous 2016 season. Last week, Jeff Sullivan argued that the Washington Nationals represented an ideal fit for McCutchen. Finally, this past week, it seemed — for a time, at least — as though a deal between the Pirates and Nationals would come to fruition, with the latter club prepared to offer major prospects for the former’s star.

The deal didn’t happen, though, and the Nationals, after having negotiated for and failing to get Chris Sale from the White Sox, ultimately acquired Adam Eaton from that same team. That haul, or something close to it, could have gone to Pittsburgh in the Pirates’ quest to contend beyond 2017. This seems like a bad outcome for the Pirates, but it could prove to be a blessing in disguise for a team that still has a shot at contention next season.

The conventional wisdom around the Pirates’ interest in trading McCutchen is that they perhaps know something the rest of us don’t about one of the best players of the last decade. From 2011 through 2015, Andrew McCutchen averaged nearly seven wins above replacement per season. That’s a Hall of Fame-level peak, but last season, McCutchen’s bat went from spectacular to slightly above average. Add in below-average defense, and at the still-young age of 29, McCutchen went from Hall of Fame to below average in the blink of an eye. Given the height of the aforementioned peak, it’s entirely reasonable to expect a bounce-back season for McCutchen. That Pittsburgh would move McCutchen might suggest that the bounce back isn’t quite as likely as one might think. I’m not so sure.

The Pirates are in a unique situation: they have a corner outfielder in Starling Marte who could play quite capable defense in center field, another young corner outfielder in Gregory Polanco who has improved in his time in the majors, and one of the best prospects in baseball in Austin Meadows, who also plays the corner outfield. Marte is locked up through 2021 on a cheap, team-friendly deal. Polanco is in the same situation through 2023, and if the team calls up Meadows sometime in 2017, they will retain his services through the 2023 season. Andrew McCutchen has two team-friendly seasons left, totaling $28.5 million. While his 2016 campaign was disappointing, his value on the trade market remains incredibly high.

Whether McCutchen rebounds as expected or not, his trade value will continue to decline as his years of team control decrease. If the Pirates could move McCutchen for a young and cheap league-average starter with upside (like Lucas Giolito, for example) and then use the saved cash on a starting pitcher (perhaps retaining Ivan Nova) and then extract something like league-average production from Meadows, they would conceivably be a better team in 2017 without McCutchen. In that case, the team would possess a number of talented young players and widen the Pirates’ window of contention despite possessing much less in the way of financial resources than their competitors. That’s also a lot of ifs, though.

And that’s only one side of things. Not dealing McCutchen also makes sense — especially if, as discussed, the club moves him to a corner-outfield spot. Right now, the Pirates are in decent contention for the playoffs next year. The National League has three major players at the moment in the Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Dodgers, and the Washington Nationals. The San Francisco Giants are slightly behind those three. After that, though, the Cardinals, Mets, and Pirates are fall close together in that 82-to-84 projected-win range. The Cardinals are probably not done with their offseason, but the Mets might be pretty close. The Marlins could work their way up into that group with another move or two, but the Pirates are in the middle of competing for a playoff spot, and trading McCutchen probably hurts those chances.

I painted a picture above in which a pitcher like Giolito plus outfielder Austin Meadows both contribute league-average production to the Pirates, but that’s very much the optimistic view. Relying on prospects to perform immediately entails a lot of risk. As for Andrew McCutchen, there’s certainly a possibility that he’s a below-average player from now on. But there’s also a real possibility that he’s a four-win player, too — or that he could still be star.

I often look for comps in these types of situations to get a broader view of what we might expect going forward. In the case of McCutchen, it’s mostly useless. I found 20 players who produced within three wins of McCutchen’s 13.3 WAR from age 27 through 29 over the last 50 years and who also recorded a plate-appearance total within 20% of McCutchen’s 2,008 figure and produced a wRC+ within 10 points of McCutchen’s 140 mark. Generally, I take this group and winnow it down slightly by finding somewhat similar age-29 seasons. Of the 20 players, 18 of the 20 were still really good at 29, which speaks to McCutchen’s considerable production over the two years prior to a bad season that dropped him “down” to the level of Lance Berkman, Tony Gwynn, Kirby Puckett, Tim Raines, Bernie Williams, and Dave Winfield in their primes.

As for the other two guys, Dave Parker recorded a 114 wRC+ at age 29. After that, injuries robbed him of two seasons, he produced two more mediocre seasons, and fashioned one last great season in 1985. At the other end of the spectrum is Jimmy Wynn. After six very good seasons, Wynn was replacement level at age 29, putting up a terrible 74 wRC+. He put that year behind him, and then averaged five wins a season the next four years. Neither case is particularly applicable here. We don’t know if an attempt to play through injuries hurt McCutchen’s 2016 season. Even if they did, we don’t know if he will come back healthy and great or if those problems will continue to bother him.

The Pirates were a team that needed better luck to contend this past season. Things didn’t quite break right for the Pirates. Francisco Cervelli was hurt and didn’t perform well. Gerrit Cole only played half a season. Juan Nicasio wasn’t the next Ray Searage reclamation. McCutchen wasn’t his usual self. All that and the Pirates still finished nine games out of the Wild Card. If McCutchen bounces back, Cervelli and Cole stay healthy, and the team adds one more productive pitcher (perhaps as a result of a Searage project), the Pirates should contend in 2017. They could do the same playing out McCutchen’s contract in 2018 or trading him before that time.

With prospects like Austin Meadows and potentially Kevin Newman — along with that great outfield and good young pitching in Cole, Tyler Glasnow, and Jameson Taillon — the Pirates’ window isn’t shut. This isn’t a team in need of a White Sox-style teardown. The Pirates are pretty good now. In light of the players they have locked up to long-term deals, they will remain that way for at least a few more years whether they trade McCutchen or not. It’s hard to compete in a division with a behemoth like the Cubs and perennial contenders like the Cardinals, but the Pirates are a well-built team. While they have an incredibly accomplished group of young players, they can contend now and only choose to trade McCutchen if the return is sufficiently strong.