The Disappearance of Hitters Who Walk More Than They Strike Out

While watching the Mets pound on the Cubs yesterday, I noticed that David Wright still has a walk rate (BB%) higher than his strikeout rate (K%). If Wright managed to continue this trend through the end of the season it would be the first time in his career he achieved such a feat.

Right now, there are a grand total of six qualified hitters who also have a higher walk than strikeout rate:

I wondered how rare a feat this is, even given the increase in the three true outcomes. Turns out, it’s exceedingly rare.

Using a similar methodology to my TTO article a few weeks back, I plotted the percent of qualified hitters in each season with BB% greater than their K% (white bars above). I then included the strikeout, walk, and home run rates for each season as well to see if they helped explain the trends we see.

First, we see the drastic decline of hitters that walk more than they strikeout. In 1929, 80% of all qualified hitters had higher walk rates. In 2011, only 6% managed the feat. The lowest percentage the league has ever seen was in 2010, when only Joe Mauer, Jeff Keppinger, Daric Barton, and Albert Pujols pulled it off (3% of all qualified hitters). That’s an incredible drop.

Second, as with the rise of TTO players, strikeout rates seem to be the driving force. Yes, home run rates have certainly increased. However, it pales in comparison to the 10%+ rise in strikeouts per plate appearance since 1920. With strikeouts becoming so prevalent and walk rates essentially fluctuating between 8-10% each year, it’s very hard for a player (particularly a good one who typically displays quite a bit of power) to end the season with more walks than strikeouts.

Given the prevalence of such hitters in previous eras, the leader board for this metric is a little skewed. However, if we look at those hitters with the most seasons of BB% > K% we do manage to find decent representation from a number of eras:

I knew Yastrzemski was good, but I never would have guessed that he would have the most seasons with a higher walk than strikeout rate. Even accounting for longevity, he accomplished the feat in 86% of his qualified seasons. He did benefit a bit from the sharp decline in strikeout rates that started in 1969, but even still amassing 18 such seasons is an impressive feat.

If we just restrict the list to players whose first season in the majors was later than 1970, the leader board looks like this:

We can see that the leader board is dominated by players whose first season was between 1980 and 1989 (14). That’s partially a function of the starting year, but also reflects the hitters in that era (Boggs, Gwynn, etc.) as well as the sharp increase in strikeout rates starting around the 1992 season.

The big takeaway is that finishing the season with a higher walk rate is incredibly rare in the current environment. It wouldn’t be surprising if at least a few of the current six players didn’t manage to hold on through the end of this season.