The Rays Out-Homer the Yankees en Route To Game 2 Victory

In this astonishingly homer-heavy postseason, no teams have played homer-heavier games than the Yankees and the Rays in this ALDS. Of the 24 runs they’ve scored, all but four have come via the long ball. In every playoff game this postseason, the team that has out-homered the other has won. And so it went in Game 2, with the Rays’ four homers — accounting for six of their seven runs — surpassing the Yankees’ two, en route to a 7-5 final score.

All of the Yankees’ home runs came off the bat of Giancarlo Stanton, whose extraordinary power manifested in the form of a shockingly casual rocket into right field, tying the game at one in the second, and a three-run shot crushed to the tune of 118 mph in the fourth, both off Rays starter Tyler Glasnow. They were his fourth and fifth homers in four postseason games this year.

Unfortunately for the Yankees, though, both of these homers were hit while trailing. Overshadowing Stanton’s displays of strength was the way that the Yankees chose to set up their pitching. The rookie Deivi García was ostensibly tapped for the start. But after pitching a single inning and giving up yet another Randy Arozarena home run, García was lifted, a secret opener for J.A. Happ.

The Rays’ starting lineup, presumably designed with the right-handed García in mind, featured five lefties; this was, perhaps, where the Yankees thought they could find an edge by foisting Happ upon Tampa Bay in the second, as he’s performed well against left-handed hitting this season. (Aaron Boone, in a mid-game interview, said that it was “probably” the plan for García to pitch only the first; Happ, in his postgame interview, seemed ambivalent about the strategy.) Whatever the logic behind the skulduggery was, it backfired almost immediately. Joey Wendle led off the bottom of the second with a single, and scored two outs later on a massive homer from Mike Zunino. The game had not stayed tied very long. An inning later, another two-run shot — this time from Manuel Margot — put the Rays ahead 5-1. An infield single, an error, and a walk later, Happ was out of the game.

His immediate successors, Adam Ottavino and Jonathan Loaisiga, didn’t fare much better. Ottavino, though he managed to close out the fifth, allowed Wendle to reach on a leadoff walk and steal second, and Loaisiga promptly allowed the inherited runner to score. Loaisiga went on to allow an Austin Meadows solo shot to lead off the sixth, capping off the Rays’ scoring.

And though Stanton’s second homer had put the Yankees within one run, the added-on runs from the Rays put the game out of reach. Aside from Stanton and Aaron Hicks, the Yankees’ lineup struggled bitterly against Tyler Glasnow, who threw multiple pitches that touched 101 mph. Glasnow struck out 10 through five innings plus a batter, with his fastball and curveball working together in glorious whiff-inducing harmony. He generated 20 swings and misses on 47 curveballs, eight of those for third strikes.

Diego Castillo was the first out of the ‘pen for the Rays in the top of the sixth, and set the tone with consecutive three-pitch strikeouts of Luke Voit and Stanton. After the first two batters reached in the top of the seventh, bringing up Gary Sánchez as the tying run, Nick Anderson took over. With the incredible efficiency he’s shown all season, Anderson struck out Sánchez, Aaron Judge and DJ LeMahieu in quick succession. He dealt with Hicks, Voit and Stanton with equivalent ease in the top of the eighth.

It was only in the top of the ninth, with Pete Fairbanks on the mound, that the Rays’ bullpen faltered. The Yankees’ first two batters reached on walks, and Fairbanks, throwing 100 mph heat, seemed to have no idea where the ball was going — though he got a little help from CB Bucknor, whose strike zone was a matter of consternation to both teams. But Fairbanks got Clint Frazier swinging for the first out, and Sánchez swinging on three pitches for the second — a brutal plate appearance for Sánchez, and his third strikeout of the game. Though LeMahieu drove in a run with a single, Judge, after falling behind 0-2, grounded out to end the game.

One of the strengths of the Yankees’ offense this season was their ability to work the strike zone: As a team, they led baseball in walk rate and had the eighth-lowest strikeout rate. In his recap of Game 1, Brendan Gawlowski noted the quality of the Yankees’ approach against Blake Snell. But that approach was not there in Game 2. Yankees finished the game with 18 strikeouts, a record for a nine-inning postseason game. Four of their hitters — Judge, Voit, Frazier and Sánchez — struck out three times. With their pitching failing to execute against the Rays’ power, poor plate appearances in critical spots made a comeback impossible.





RJ is the dilettante-in-residence at FanGraphs. Previous work can be found at Baseball Prospectus, VICE Sports, and The Hardball Times.

23 Comments
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D-Wizmember
3 years ago

Honestly, though it clearly didn’t quite work out, using Happ in this “secret opener” strategy feels like a decent move. They need innings from him at some point this series, so trying to set him up to face an easier lineup makes sense. Ultimately I think it just comes down to the fact that the Rays are very good and Happ is average at best… I’m sure Boone will take heat for this (and I’m no Yankee fan – I’m glad the Rays won), but I actually don’t see too much of a problem with this strategy.

RonnieDobbs
3 years ago
Reply to  D-Wiz

Leaving Tanaka on the bench is not a defensible move. Tanaka is miles ahead of those two. I agree that an opener is potentially defensible as they have absolutely nothing after a certain point but this was not that point. It cost them the game and it could cost them the series.

BenZobrist4MVP
3 years ago
Reply to  RonnieDobbs

Whether Tanaka pitches game 2 or game 3, he is only pitching 1 game this series either way.

User79
3 years ago
Reply to  BenZobrist4MVP

I agree with this. Also, I think this allows Boone to use his one or two inning pitchers in Game 2, possibly allowing them to come back later in the series.

ScottyBmember
3 years ago
Reply to  RonnieDobbs

Also, Tanaka goes from very good to GREAT when he gets an extra day or rest between starts

Cave Dameron
3 years ago
Reply to  ScottyB

How many times has he done that?

Willians Astu-stu-studillomember
3 years ago
Reply to  D-Wiz

Yeah, ok. I still look at the strategy and see very few ways it could possibly work against Glasnow, who has handled the Yankees well this year. The Yankees needed their pitching to be ‘excellent’ last night, the 90th percentile outcome on this strategy was ‘good’. But if we assume the Yankees don’t want to start Cole on short rest in game 5, when he’s not used to doing that, then yes, they need innings from Happ this series. This strategy was their best chance for those innings to be good, and Garcia is still available to start game 4 or 5 if they need him.

ScottyBmember
3 years ago
Reply to  D-Wiz

If Boone’s gambit was to create better platoon advantages for his pitchers, he failed. Garcia, a right-hander, faced 4 batters in the 1st inning- 3 of them lefties. Happ , a lefty, came in and faced a righty right away, and only about half the batters he faced gave him the handedness advantage. The Rays hit Happ hard (left-handed or not, he’s pretty bad), and then also kept their lefties face the right-handed Yankee relievers.