The Strandmaster in Tampa

One of the first articles I wrote for this site involved Brian Shouse and his ability to strand runners. In 2007, Shouse, then 39 years old, stranded 60 of his 78 runners inherited. That 77% rate was actually much higher through September 15, when 85% of such runners failed to score. His strand-skill regressed this past season to 67%, but the 40-yr old late blooming lefty specialist put together a 2.81 ERA in 69 games.

Granted, his FIP rose from 2.90 to 3.93, but Shouse improved upon his 2007 WHIP, LOB, and K/BB. Facing so few batters per game likely extends his baseball life expectancy, making him an appealing commodity to several teams. The Rays bit, signing him last week. The exact terms of the deal are still unknown, but it appears to be a 1-yr, $1-2 mil deal with an option for a similar fee.

In 2007, Shouse produced +1.1 wins, worth $4.6 mil. Last season, his +0.4 wins translated to $1.8 mil. His three-year weighted projection calls for somewhere between +0.4 and +0.6 wins next season. At $4.5 mil/win, fair market value falls between $1.8 mil and $2.7 mil. If Andrew Friedman signed Shouse for $2 mil, he is banking on the artist formerly known as strandmaster to repeat last year’s production, if not slightly exceed it.

If the deal pays Shouse $1 mil, then Friedman will be valuing him at around +0.2 wins. Suffice it to say, Shouse should easily surpass that win value, making this contract very reasonable for both sides. A 40-yr old lefty specialist, in this economic climate, simply should not be signed for anything above $2 mil. Even if Shouse’s production completely drops off the table, the Rays have built such a deep and solid bullpen that some may not even notice.



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Eric is an accountant and statistical analyst from Philadelphia. He also covers the Phillies at Phillies Nation and can be found here on Twitter.


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Justin
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Justin

Eric—-did you find the Bill Simmons article???
I didn’t

well here are my thoughts tho:
I agree, to a degree…..
but no one thinks Everett is a +4 win player, and no one in their right mind pegs jeter as a +1.5 win player.

It may seem as such, but I am a stahead who thinks Jeter is indeed overrated only because fans think he is the greatest SS in the world, when the numbers clearly show he is not. No one ever can say he is not a great O contributer (even though he did decline last year), but to say he deserves those GG and is a top 5 SS on D is absurd.

I tend to believe Everett is also underrated because as you said D-metrics are not valued by fans. There is no problem with explaining his value, but while realizing, he makes you want to stop watching baseball when he is at bat.

I do not know anyway who sees him as a +4 win player and anyone who thinks that Jeter is a +1.5 win player.

You may be overexaggerating this slightly……..

You can absolutely peg players as overrated and underrated as a whole, because one part of their game is not mentioned or valued enough……

jeter, as a whole is overrated to a degree—his D is atrocious
Everett–underrated as a whole to a degree because no one mentions his D

Howard-overrated because fans love the HR and RBI

There is a middle ground as you said…….in which I agree with you

John K.
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John K.

Well, I’m glad you got something out of it because that was easily the most pointless article I’ve ever read at Fan Graphs, and Simmons’ far superior article only served to make it all the more worthless. Nothing says “why does this even matter?” like taking the time to write seven hundred words about it.

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