Top 32 Prospects: Colorado Rockies

Of the 2020 Draft’s high schoolers, Veen has the most obvious long-term power projection because of his huge, well-composed frame. His in-the-box actions are quiet and smooth up until the moment he decides to unleash hell on the baseball. He can clear his hips and crush balls in, and he can also extend his arms and crush pitches away from him to the opposite field gap. Because of the frame-based power potential, Veen was one of a handful of high schoolers who had a chance to really blow up during his senior spring and insert himself among the college prospects atop this draft, and because high school ball began in Florida before the COVID-19 pandemic, teams got to see some of that development and Veen separated himself from some of the other prep hitters. He’s a prototypical power-hitting high school prospect. (Fall Instructional League)

A series of swing changes have led to Vilade’s current “toe twist” stride, a very simple cut that leans into his great natural bat control and strength-derived pop. He can make contact with pitches all over the zone but typically does his damage slugging pitches on the inner half, especially wayward lefty fastballs in there. Watch how his groundball rate trends in 2021. The 2019 swing that may have helped bring his groundball rate closer to average (50% previously, down to 42% in ’19) has again been changed, so it’s hard to say how much damage he’s going to be capable of now.

A high school shortstop, Vilade began seeing time at third base in 2019, then took reps in the outfield during the Rockies’ fall workouts, and at the 2020 alternate site and in instructs. He’s a heavy-footed, 40-grade athlete who isn’t likely to be a good defender anywhere, but might be a replacement-level defender in a couple of spots (hopefully some third base, more likely first base and left field). While he certainly has the raw juice (this guy was putting balls way out of Wrigley Field in a high school home run derby), Vilade hasn’t produced the kind of game power to be a 50 FV, everyday type of regular in my opinion, though he did have some Top 100 support from folks who work for analytically-inclined clubs. Vilade’s feel for contact makes him a likely role-playing sort who I hope continues to see some third base time. (Alternate site, Fall Instructional League)

Romo was the best defensive catcher among the 2020 draft’s high schoolers: he had the best arm, and also has rare physicality and athleticism for a catcher, a walking, broad-shouldered embodiment of his home state. Romo also switch-hits and has huge raw power and bat speed, but there were serious pre-draft concerns about his ability to make contact, which is what drove some teams to think he’d head to school rather than sign, but the Rockies took him early enough to keep him from LSU. High school catching is scary and players from that demographic bust a lot. Go back and read any Adley Rutschman or MJ Melendez report from when they graduated high school and they read, in broad strokes, exactly the same as Romo’s does right now (plus glove/arm, frame, athleticism, power), and that’s how variable his developmental trajectory may be. His ceiling is every bit as high as Veen’s, Romo just comes from a much riskier demographic of player. (Fall Instructional League)

Toglia has a rare combination of traits and skills. He’s a switch-hitting first baseman with power who is also a plus defender, which puts him in a small, 21st century fraternity with Lance Berkman, Mark Teixeira, and Carlos Santana. That’s an intriguing group. He has mistake power from both sides of the plate but also some limitations. As a right-handed hitter, Toglia is adept at punishing pitches at the top of the strike zone, working gap to gap depending on whether the pitch is on the inner or outer half. As a lefty, he has a low-ball, bottom-hand-dominant swing, and he’ll hit some pretty-looking golf shots out to his pull side, or scoop some balls to the oppo gap. If lefty pitchers can execute back-foot breakers against him, they’re going to get him out. He’s vulnerable to letter-high velocity from the left side. I think there will be enough offensive ability for Toglia to be a low-end everyday first baseman held back from the 50 FV tier because I don’t think his plate coverage is air-tight. And of course, his numbers will likely be inflated by Coors Field. (Alternate site, Fall Instructional League)

McMahon was a notable prospect following his pre-draft summer in high school, when he was sitting in the low-90s with a good slider. His stuff didn’t spike during his senior year, so he ended up at Miami, where it did. Now McMahon consistently touches 96 or 97 during his outings and sits in the 91-95 range, his fastball has tail and sink, and its movement mimics a still-improving changeup, while McMahon’s slider remains his go-to finishing pitch. For how violent his delivery is, McMahon fills the zone with his fastball and is pretty good at locating his slider consistently to his glove side, although not always in a precise, enticing location. He often appears to be “underneath” his changeup, and creates lateral action on it but inconsistent dive; sometimes he actually gets impact dive on the change when he releases it late and it ends up glove-side. Yes, he’s had some injury issues (knee tendinitis in 2018, shoulder soreness in ’19) but McMahon has No. 4/5 starter stuff with a chance for more if the change keeps coming. (Fall Instructional League)

Doyle was tough to learn about before the 2019 draft because while he became difficult to hide in the truest sense, nobody wanted to tip their hand as to where he was on their board, as small school players (tiny Shepherd University has an enrollment just north of 3,500 students) are placed with quite a bit of variability. The physical tools were obvious, and pretty similar to what Dodgers prospect D.J. Peters looked like coming out of junior college, there was just no way of knowing how Doyle would handle a huge leap in opposing pitcher quality. He is built like an old school, run-stopping strong safety at a physical 6-foot-3, 220 pounds. He runs well, has plus raw power, and after the 2019 draft, against the best pitching he’d ever faced in his life, Doyle hit .383/.477/.611 in the Pioneer League. Some of that is due to the league’s hitting environment, but his physical ability was evident even on a field with other pro athletes, and his ball/strike recognition and ability to spoil pitchers’ pitches were much better than anticipated considering how few quality arms he had seen to that point. Two scouts who saw Rockies instructs mentioned that they’ll be curious to see how he deals with upper-level breaking stuff but think he can hit velo, hit it with power without compromising contact, and play center field. (Fall Instructional League)

From a hands and actions standpoint, Welker is actually fine at third base. It’s his lateral quickness that’s an issue, and why he’s generally considered a first base prospect. But same as we’ve seen Travis Shaw and Max Muncy play elsewhere, it stands to reason someone out there thinks Welker can stay at third, or handle duties around the second base bag in certain situations. Those are the teams most likely to think he can play something resembling an everyday role, because while he has excellent feel to hit, he lacks the raw power typical of first base. Though he’s not especially athletic, Welker’s swing is. He’s a loose rotator with a well-balanced, long, slow leg kick and he’s really great at diving and hitting pitches away from him the other way. He stays inside the baseball and works center and right/center field most of the time, only really turning on hanging breaking balls with pull power. I like his bat enough to consider him a role-playing corner bat but the power/defensive spectrum shortcomings leave him short of a more regular role. (Alternate site)

Here I have a scout who saw Amador get hurt during instructs (“they were checking out his hand”) and two others who didn’t see him at all, so his report remains the same: Amador has already gotten stronger and twitchier than he appeared to be on the amateur circuit, and he flashed some in-game power in the 2019 Tricky League. For a switch-hitter this young, Amador already has fairly advanced feel to hit in games, even if the swings aren’t always pretty. He’s medium-framed and likely to grow into some more power, but probably not a ton. He’s graceful and athletic enough that I also consider him likely to stay on the middle infield, though I’m not sure if it’ll be at second base or shortstop. There’s everyday ceiling here, but of course, teenagers are quite volatile. (Fall Instructional League)

We’ve learned the hard way that graceful deliveries do not always foreshadow improvement to control and command, so I’m not totally sold that Olivarez will develop cogent strike-throwing ability even though his mechanics are silky smooth. He does have tremendous stuff for his age, already sitting in the mid-90s (94-96, touch 98 during 2021 spring training) early during his outings and flashing a plus curveball. There’s arguably too much velocity separation between the heater and curveball for the latter to be effective right now, but it has bat-missing depth and shape. Similar to his presently poor feel for location, Olivarez lacks changeup feel. Many things — holding the velo deep into games, mechanical consistency, a sharper curveball, a much better changeup — need to progress for Olivarez to attain what appears to be massive potential when you consider his arm strength, frame, and proclivity for spin. (Alternate site, Fall Instructional League)

In the mold of Sheldon Neuse or J.D. Davis, Schunk was a burly, two-way college prospect with arm strength. After two years of struggling to get to his raw power in games (he hit just four homers combined his freshman and sophomore seasons), Schunk had a breakout junior year at Georgia and clubbed 15 dingers as he appeared to be pulling the baseball more. That continued during Schunk’s initial foray into pro ball but seemed to regress at the alt site and during instructs, where he really struggled to get around on fastballs on the inner half and either fouled off hittable pitches there or was jammed. It will be less important for Schunk to hit for big power if it turns out he can play second base, which he/Colorado began experimenting with in 2020. He’s such an athletic third base defender that, having not yet seen him play second myself, I’d give him a fair chance of making it work, just on spec. I’ve left Schunk in the same FV tier as last year but slid him down among the other 40+ guys because of newfound concern with this hole on the inner half that needs closing. (Alternate site, Fall Instructional League)

Weatherly made a seamless transition to the 2020 Clemson rotation after pitching out of the bullpen as a freshman and sophomore. Though he still had some issues with walks as a junior, they weren’t nearly as troublesome as they were during his underclass seasons when he walked a batter per inning, and Weatherly finished with 43 K and 14 BB in 23 innings before the shutdown. Then he was Colorado’s best pitching prospect at instructs, where he was consistently sitting 95-97, up to 98, and working with a comfortably plus slider. He’ll work the slider in on the hands of righties like a cutter, or bury it beneath the zone to finish hitters. Because Weatherly was in the bullpen as an underclassman, he’s barely ever thrown a changeup, or any third pitch, and he only threw about a dozen changeups in all of 2020 at Clemson. Because his slider feel is so good, maybe this is the type of guy who should just have a second breaking ball rather than try to force feed him a changeup, which is what has worked for Germán Márquez. Weatherly carries relief risk related to his fastball command but he may also just be scratching the surface because of his relative inexperience. His arrow has been pointing up for the last calendar year. (Fall Instructional League)

College lefties up to 96 who have good feel for spinning a breaking ball are typically in the first round mix, and this was the case with Rolison, who sometimes struggled with holding his stuff and command deep into games at Ole Miss. He seemed to be moving past that in 2019, his first full pro season, when his walk rate was lower than it ever was in college and he showed more varied and sentient fastball usage. But Rolison’s alt site and instructs looks were more like during college. His fastball command was pretty loose (typically later in outings) and his below-average changeup missed in the zone an awful lot, forcing Rolison to lean on his curveball a ton (it’s his best first-strike pitch and most consistent putaway pitch). Heuristically, I want to bet on a lefty with such a good breaking ball, but if Rolison can’t command his fastball then hitters will just sit on that curveball, which opposing college lineups seemed to be doing in his worst D-I outings. Scouts came away from instructs thinking he had a lot of relief risk and Rolison’s heater has been in the 90-92 range this spring. The chance for a rebound, and that Rolison might experience a velo bump if he were put in the bullpen, means he should still be in an impact FV tier, but he’s trending more and more like a fifth starter. (Alternate site, Fall Instructional League)