What If the Twins Won the World Series?

As I write this, six teams have already reached 90 wins. Another three teams still could. Four teams have won at least 60% of their games, which is the highest total for the league in more than a decade, and that doesn’t include the Yankees, who have baseball’s second-highest run differential. It also doesn’t include the Cubs, who last year were one of the better teams in recent memory, and who this year picked up Jose Quintana, among a few others. The Dodgers, who are great, added Yu Darvish. The Astros, who are great, added Justin Verlander. The Nationals, who are great, added Sean Doolittle, Ryan Madson, and Brandon Kintzler. And so on. The top of the league is always good, by definition, but this year the best teams seem particularly strong. Particularly talented, and particularly deep. This year has marked a step away from what had been a trend toward greater parity. Now the parity is simply among the elite.

The great teams are going to the playoffs. That’s what’s supposed to happen. The Twins, also, look like they’re going to the playoffs. It’s not yet locked up, but it’s just about there, with the Twins looking ahead to a date in New York. Playoff entry, of course, is everything, because each of the final 10 teams gets a chance to win it all. It’s inarguably true that the 2017 Twins could win the World Series in a month. The question is, would that be a good thing or a bad thing? It’s a question I’m actually posing to you, but not before I go over each side.

I don’t write this to specifically pick on the Twins. It could almost as easily be written about the Rockies. The Rockies have a slightly better actual record, but these are both the second wild cards, and according to BaseRuns, both the Twins and Rockies have played like .500 ballclubs. If you’re a Twins fan, I don’t mean to offend. It’s just, well — the Twins aren’t great. The Twins aren’t great. Other teams are great. The Twins aren’t. That’s the point. The shot at the World Series is the other point.

At the end of this post is a poll, for your consideration. This is all about your own opinion, specific to you. If the Twins were to keep winning until there was nothing left to win, would that be more of a good thing for baseball, or more of a bad thing? Before the poll, some brief position summaries.

The argument for good

It’s hard to imagine a better Cinderella story. The Twins are a young club, with a new front office, and last year they finished with baseball’s worst record. And not just baseball’s worst record — at 59-103, the Twins were worse than the next-worst team by nine whole games. Those Twins were legitimately bad, and these Twins were expected to be as well, with our own preseason projections pegging them at 75-87. These Twins weren’t supposed to become a contender. As late as early August, they were under .500. Never forget that this team tentatively tried to buy, and then it immediately sold, in response to a slump. The Twins’ own front office didn’t see this coming.

How great is that? How great of a movie would this make, if this team, these Twins, toppled all of the giants? You don’t need me to say how fun it is to root for an underdog, and playoff teams don’t get much more underdog-y. The Twins have played well before their time, with players like Byron Buxton and Jose Berrios beginning to blossom. It would bring hope not just to Minnesota, but to locales all over the place, cities and states with middling ballclubs. If the Twins could win, why couldn’t the Braves? Why couldn’t the Reds? Why couldn’t the White Sox or Padres or A’s? The Twins have been where they all are. The same Twins who could win the dang title. A last-place team wouldn’t feel so much like a last-place team, not, at least, before the season has started.

The Twins would cover the underdog angle. They’d supply a definite breath of fresh air. And, not to be lost, there might be certain roster-building implications. I think fans everywhere would prefer teams not have to tear down and rebuild, even if they understand the reasoning behind the decision. No one wants for their team to be intentionally non-competitive. If the Twins won it all, it would be a reminder that a championship team doesn’t have to be great — simply good enough. You don’t need to worry about winning 95, if 85 could get the job done. A Twins World Series might stop the next rebuild in its tracks, and you could argue that would be good for everyone. Sports aren’t supposed to suck for years at a time.

The Twins aren’t one of the very best teams. That much cannot be argued. You can’t frame the numbers in such a way that the Twins look even close to as good as the Indians. But the Twins could beat the Indians, and all of their opponents. It’s in our nature to pull for the little guy. This October, these guys could be the littlest. Isn’t that just what we want?

The argument for bad

It all comes down to the cheapening of the regular season. It’s the same argument that’s been made against the introduction of the second wild card in general; this would just be an argument against one second wild card, specifically. The playoffs are one month. The season is six months. You need to do well during the season to gain entry into the playoffs. Some people could say a team only needs to be good enough, that it doesn’t matter if you’re team number 10 as long as you aren’t team number 11. Yet, until recently, the line was between team number eight and team number nine. Is this expansion of the playoff field actually good? Do we want for there to be postseason underdogs, if they’re going to be underdogs of this magnitude?

In theory, you could design a 30-team playoff field. It would be weird and complicated, but possible. If that existed, then there would be a chance that, say, the 2017 Tigers would win out. That would be interesting and everything, since they’re not good and all, but what would that mean? What would even be the point? Why have those playoffs, and why have that regular season? Why play six months to allow teams to separate, if, at the end, you end up with teams all the way from the Dodgers to the Twins?

Not that there’s anything to be done right now about the playoff format. It is what it is. But the cheapening could at least be ignored or brushed aside if the Twins lost early on. If they were to get clobbered by the Yankees next week, well, that’s what happens when you’re not as good as the competition. You need a certain amount of faith that baseball can sort itself out. If the Twins went on a run, it would highlight the fact that they made the playoffs in the first place due to recent playoff expansion. It would be entertaining, there’s no question, but maybe the randomness would come off as too extreme. It was good that the Cubs won last year because, in all honesty, they should’ve. The Twins aren’t those Cubs.

And as for other implications: how would teams even know how to respond? Do you want a league to so immediately reward an organization that didn’t believe in itself right before the trade deadline? Oh, sure, if the Twins won it all, maybe that would make the next would-be rebuilder think twice. But it would also make the next would-be buyer think twice. There would be less reason to be the next team to make a Darvish or Quintana or Verlander-level splash. Baseball seems like a better game when those trades are made. Teams might come away somewhat stuck. If the Twins could win, anyone could win. And that just leads to paralysis.


It’s in your hands, now. Thank you in advance for your participation.

We hoped you liked reading What If the Twins Won the World Series? by Jeff Sullivan!

Please support FanGraphs by becoming a member. We publish thousands of articles a year, host multiple podcasts, and have an ever growing database of baseball stats.

FanGraphs does not have a paywall. With your membership, we can continue to offer the content you've come to rely on and add to our unique baseball coverage.

Support FanGraphs




Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.

newest oldest most voted
Fireball Fred
Member
Member
Fireball Fred

This would not be the worst Twins team to win the World Series.

jasoellingson
Member
jasoellingson

I didn’t believe you right away. I’m surprised to see the 1987 team does look worse then this team. At least in total WAR:
1991 – 27.4 hitting, 15.2 pitching — 42.6
1987 – 15.4 hitting, 11.5 pitching — 26.9
2017 – 23.0 hitting, 9.4 pitching — 32.4

by jiminy
Member
by jiminy

It’s not that simple. The 1987 and 1991 Twins were not that good during the regular season, but were great in the postseason, in part because those are two different things.

Their pitching rotation was two men strong followed by a huge drop off. Over a whole season, that means a lot of losses and a bad run differential.

In the playoffs, two ace pitchers, good fielding, and a powerful lineup from top to bottom is a legitimately good team.

by jiminy
Member
by jiminy

The difference between quality over a whole season vs. just the playoffs includes many other variables. Injuries, trades, call-ups, improvement of young players all change a team over time.

This year, for example, the Twins had a -72 run differential before August 1, and were +96 after. So are they a good team? That depends. If you look at their whole year, they weren’t that good. But they’re pretty good now!

Their bullpen was literally the worst in the league; it’s been bolstered by several minor-league call-ups.

Their starting pitching was horrendous; but many of those pitchers who got shelled, leading to that horrible first half run differential, aren’t on the team now.

They also had startling improvements in their younger players. They have more innings played by people under 25 than any other team, and several made huge strides.

They also have new coaches and use analytics now. Their talented youngsters used to lead the league in swings out of the strike zone. As a group, they dramatically improved their plate discipline, and their potential was unleashed. I’ve never seen anything like it.

People below call this a “fluke.” Could be. They could all regress. But it doesn’t look random to me. Rosario always had great hands, but he swung at everything. Somebody got through to him. And what’s happening is exactly what’s supposed to happen when a disciplined player lays off the bad pitches and makes a pitcher come over the plate. The old regime used to encourage people to stay aggressive; this one encourages them to wait for a pitch to hit. And it works.

The twins have led the AL in runs scored in the second half, and are now third for the whole season. If that’s a fluke, it’s a lot of flukes all occurring at the same time. At some point you have to say they’re just good.

Does this make them better than the ’87 or ’91 teams? Maybe than the ’87 team. I was going to say no way, they don’t have two aces like Blyleven and Viola. But Blyleven actually had a 4.01 ERA that year. They had one starter with an ERA under 4!

I don’t think Blyleven’s playoff success was a fluke though; he’s a borderline hall of famer. And the lineup was filled with young future stars who broke out at the same time. Sorta like this year.

But I think Blyleven and Viola are both far better playoff starters than anyone on the 2017 team.

So I disagree with the comment above that this wouldn’t be the worst Twins team to win a World Series. I don’t think they have the two good starters it takes for an underdog to advance in the playoffs, like those teams did. They’re a fun team on the rise, but I don’t think they have a prayer to win it all.

In 2006, when they had Johan Santana and Francisco Liriano was 12-3 with a 2.26 ERA before he got hurt and needed Tommy John surgery, they were the team nobody wanted to face in the playoffs, including the Yankees. It didn’t matter who else was on the team. Two guys can win you a series. As the ’87 and ’91 teams show. Okay, Puckett et al helped. But you can have the best offense in the league, like the Twins over the past two months, and without those two ace starters, you’re not going anywhere. You can have big holes in your team and still win in the playoffs. But this team doesn’t just have holes; it doesn’t even have pants.

My goal is to knock out the Yankees, and then go shopping for pitchers.

witesoxfan
Member
Member

The only knock I have on this post is that you said Blyleven is a borderline Hall of Famer.

Blyleven is in the Hall of Fame, thank god.

Fireball Fred
Member
Member
Fireball Fred

The Twins of that era were very good *at home* because their stadium was a joke – and as scheduling then worked they got home field advantage throughout in odd-numbered years. The “mediocre in the regular season, good in the postseason” argument works for the ’06 Cards, but not the ’87 Twins.

MikeS
Member
MikeS

I figured this article had been stuck in the internet for the last 30 years and just now got released somehow.