Win Probability Update

Good news! Win Probability and Run Expectancy stats have all been park adjusted for 2008. It looks like the run environment during the season was set a little too high, so you’ll notice batter stats are slightly higher, while pitcher stats are a bit lower. Other than that, not much changed. Manny Ramirez is still #1 in WPA for batters and Cliff Lee is still #1 for pitchers.

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David Appelman is the creator of FanGraphs.

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Detroit Michael
Detroit Michael

Has or another website looked into calculating playoff probability update? In other words, calculated win probability added for a regular season game multiplied by the game’s impact on increasing or decreasing a team’s probability of landing a playoff slot. I realize that a small number of plate appearances will have a disproportionately large impact on making the playoffs and that it would be very volatile with most of the statistic accumulated during the last 2 weeks of the season, but it might be fun to quantify it and see who ranked the highest.