Your Stance On the Team Projections

Out of all the polling projects I run, this one’s always my favorite. No sense in beating around the bush. Here are our current, schedule-adjusted projected 2018 standings. These are based on the Steamer projection system, the ZiPS projection system, and manually-adjusted team depth charts. Now that the Orioles have signed Alex Cobb, there are hardly more big changes to make between now and opening day. So, what do you actually think of the projections you’re seeing?

For convenience, here are the league landscapes, in case you didn’t feel like clicking the link.

The top looks like the top you’d expect. The bottom looks like the bottom you’d expect. We’ve been writing about the various tiers for months. But, even if you might not realize it, you’re experts. You know a lot about particular baseball teams, information the projection systems might not be aware of. So you might consider certain team projections too optimistic, or you might consider certain team projections too pessimistic. This is your collective opportunity to make yourselves heard. Last year, the community thought the projections were too low on the Rockies, Brewers, and Royals. All three teams won more games than was projected. Meanwhile, the community thought the projections were too high on the A’s, Angels, and Marlins. All three teams won fewer games than was projected. You all can provide valuable input, and so I love when this project gets to the analysis part.

The analysis part is coming, probably early next week. Following, you’ll find 30 polls for 30 teams. They should be simple to understand, especially if you’ve done this before. Vote based on research, or vote based on gut. I don’t care. Just vote. All I ask is that you vote based on the information we know today. Vote based on the rosters and depth teams have, and don’t vote based on the assumption that a team will make midseason additions or subtractions. That stuff is effectively un-projectable. Everything now being said, I leave it to you. Thank you all in advance for your participation.

To proceed directly to a specific team projection poll, click on the team’s name below.

Angels, Astros, Athletics, Blue Jays, Braves, Brewers, Cardinals, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Giants, Indians, Mariners, Marlins, Mets, Nationals, Orioles, Padres, Phillies, Pirates, Rangers, Rays, Red Sox, Reds, Rockies, Royals, Tigers, Twins, White Sox, Yankees

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Angels

Astros

Athletics

Blue Jays

Braves

Brewers

Cardinals

Cubs

Diamondbacks

Dodgers

Giants

Indians

Mariners

Marlins

Mets

Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Phillies

Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees

We hoped you liked reading Your Stance On the Team Projections by Jeff Sullivan!

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Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.

newest oldest most voted
jknight82
Member
jknight82

There is zero chance SF finishes better than AZ. 9/10 times AZ should be projected higher than SF.

jknight82
Member
jknight82

Okay, 5% chance. Sorry.

Scott
Member
Scott

Your math is still off. You said there’s zero chance, and then you said 9/10, and then 5% chance. Which one is it?!

Momus
Member
Momus

There’s a 0% chance that 9 times out of 10 Arizona should be projected to finish ahead of the Giants 5% of the time.

sadtrombone
Member
sadtrombone

Is “should” a normative statement or a statement of probability?

Adam S
Member
Member
Adam S

I’d take the Diamondbacks over the Giants, but no way I’d give someone 19:1 or 10:1 on that bet. In fact, I’d gladly wager $$$$ on the Giants at that price.

senor_mike
Member
senor_mike

60% of the time that math works every time

Roger McDowell Hot Foot
Member
Roger McDowell Hot Foot

I’m trying to avoid doing electioneering in the comments because it might bias the results but I also found the early voting on the Giants suprising.