Analyzing the FanGraphs Early Mock Draft from an Outsider’s Point of View – SPs 21-40

The following is a look at the 21^st through 40^th starting pitcher taken in the FanGraphs Early Mock Draft, with a comparison to their rankings based on 2015 Steamer projections.

Starting Pitchers: 21-30

The table below shows starting pitchers taken 21^st through 30^th in this mock, along with their Steamer rank and the difference between their Steamer rank and the spot they were drafted. Pitchers with a positive difference were taken higher than their Steamer projection would suggest. Those with a negative difference were taken later than Steamer would have expected.

FanGraphs Mock Draft SPs 21-30 vs Steamer Rankings
PCK	RND	$$	SP-Rnk	NAME	Steamer Rank	Difference
101	9	$14	21	Alex Cobb	24	3
104	9	$7	22	Jeff Samardzija	42	20
111	10	$24	23	Masahiro Tanaka	12	-11
116	10	$9	24	Jake Arrieta	35	11
118	10	$3	25	Jacob DeGrom	57	32
119	10	$17	26	Hisashi Iwakuma	20	-6
121	11	$5	27	Tyson Ross	51	24
124	11	$9	28	Alex Wood	36	8
127	11	$15	29	James Shields	23	-6
128	11	$3	30	Jose Quintana	58	28

 

In this mock draft, pitchers started flying off the shelves in the 10^th and 11^th rounds. It took 104 picks for the first 22 starting pitchers to be drafted. Nineteen more were taken over the next 45 picks. It looks like the second half of the 10^th round is when things really started heating up.

In this group of 10 pitchers, there were a few who were picked well before or much later than their Steamer projection would expect. Jeff Samardzija was the 22^nd pitcher taken; Steamer has him ranked 42^nd. Samardzija had a 2.99 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 2014 and his FIP (3.20), xFIP (3.07), and SIERA (3.06) weren’t far off from his ERA. Steamer isn’t buying on Samardzija, projecting a 3.94 ERA and 1.24 WHIP.

The next pitcher taken was Masahiro Tanaka. Steamer has Tanaka just outside the top 10 and he was taken here as the 23^rd starting pitcher drafted. Tanaka’s health is the big issue. He missed more than two months of the 2014 season, so it’s hard to know what to expect from him in 2015. Steamer is still projecting 31 starts and 192 innings. The Fans projections have him at 28 starts and 178 innings.

The 2014 NL Rookie of the Year, Jacob deGrom, was the 25^th starting pitcher drafted, but is ranked 57^th by Steamer. deGrom put up a 2.69 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and 9.2 K/9 last year in 22 starts. The strikeout rate was surprising. In 323 1/3 minor league innings, deGrom’s K/9 was 7.4. Steamer projects deGrom for a 3.93 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and 8.0 K/9.

Like Jacob deGrom, Tyson Ross was drafted much earlier than Steamer would suggest. Ross very much enjoyed pitching at home in Petco Park last year, where he posted a 1.88 ERA and 1.01 WHIP, with a K%-BB% of 18.9% and a .267 BABIP. He was much more human on the road, with a 3.79 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 11.6% K%-BB%, and .315 BABIP. Ross was the 27^th starting pitcher drafted. Steamer has him ranked 51^st among starting pitchers.

The 30^th starting pitcher taken was Jose Quintana. Quintana has started 87 games over the last three years with a 3.50 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and 7.1 K/9. Steamer is projecting a 3.95 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and 7.7 K/9, which puts him 58^th among starting pitchers based on Steamer projections. In this case, ZiPS is just as pessimistic, forecasting a 3.88 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and 7.2 K/9.

The Steamer “bargains” among starting pitchers taken in this grouping were the aforementioned Masahiro Tanaka and a pair of older pitchers—Hisashi Iwakuma and James Shields. Iwakuma was the 26^th starting pitcher drafted and is ranked 20^th by Steamer. Shields was the 29^th starting pitcher taken and is ranked 23^rd by Steamer.

Starting Pitchers: 31-40

The next 10 starting pitchers were taken over rounds 11 through 13. Here’s the chart:

FanGraphs Mock Draft SPs 31-40 vs Steamer Rankings
PCK	RND	$$	SP-Rnk	NAME	Steamer Rank	Difference
130	11	$20	31	Hyun-Jin Ryu	16	-15
131	11	$16	32	Cliff Lee	21	-11
132	11	$1	33	Yordano Ventura	64	31
134	12	$0	34	Zack Wheeler	69	35
138	12	$6	35	Doug Fister	49	14
141	12	$6	36	Drew Smyly	47	11
144	12	$8	37	Garrett Richards	41	4
145	13	$10	38	Marcus Stroman	29	-9
147	13	$2	39	Matt Shoemaker	59	20
148	13	$10	40	Michael Wacha	32	-8

 

Based on Steamer projections, there were four “bargain” picks in this grouping of starting pitchers, starting with Hyun-Jin Ryu with the 130^th pick of the draft. Ryu was the 31^st starting pitcher drafted but is ranked 16^th by Steamer. Of the first 40 starting pitchers drafted, Ryu had the biggest discrepancy between his Steamer ranking and the spot he was drafted and it’s not like Steamer has a particularly favorable projection compared to what Ryu has done in the past. Last year, Ryu had a 3.38 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Steamer projects a 3.33 ERA and 1.16 WHIP.

The next Steamer bargain was Cliff Lee who was taken 32^nd among starting pitchers and ranked 21^st by Steamer. It’s understandable that Lee would drop a bit in this mock draft because of his age (36) and his injury-shortened 2014 season (just 13 starts). Steamer has him starting 28 games with a 3.53 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 2015.

On the tail end of this group of pitchers were two more Steamer projected bargains: Marcus Stroman (38^th pitcher drafted, ranked 29^th) and Michael Wacha (40^th pitcher drafted, ranked 32^nd). Stroman was a 1^st round pick in 2012 and has a history of good minor league performances. He started 20 games with the Blue Jays last year and is getting some buzz heading into this year. Wacha has pitched well over two major league seasons but in limited time with just 28 starts over those two seasons. Steamer is projecting 27 starts in 2015 but the Fans are less optimistic, projecting just 23 starts (based on the projections of nine fans so far).

There were three pitchers in this group who were drafted much sooner than their projection would suggest—Yordano Ventura, Zack Wheeler, and Matt Shoemaker.

Steamer is projecting Ventura to have an ERA closer to his 2014 SIERA (3.87) than his actual 2014 ERA (3.20). Ventura was the 33^rd starting pitcher drafted and is ranked 64^th by Steamer.

Zack Wheeler was taken 34^th among starting pitchers and is ranked 69^th by Steamer. Wheeler has been in the bigs for two seasons and has a career ERA of 3.50 and WHIP of 1.34. Steamer is projecting a 3.90 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Wheeler was a 1^st round pick (6^th overall) in 2009 and has been a top prospect ever since, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him outpitch his projection.

Matt Shoemaker (39^th starting pitcher drafted, ranked 59^th by Steamer) has some similarities to Jacob deGrom. Both made their major league debuts at the age of 26, which is later than most successful big leaguers. deGrom had a 7.4 K/9 in 323 1/3 minor league innings, then struck out 9.2 per nine innings at the major league level. Matt Shoemaker had a 7.4 K/9 in 786 2/3 minor league innings and has struck out 8.2 per nine at the major league level. Both were liked much more by the people in this mock draft than their Steamer projections would suggest. Shoemaker has a career 2.94 ERA and 1.06 WHIP (3.26 FIP, 3.28 xFIP, 3.19 SIERA), but Steamer is projecting a 4.06 ERA and 1.25 WHIP.

After 40 starting pitchers were taken, there were 12 pitchers remaining who rank in the Steamer top 40. The pitchers undrafted at this point were Jose Fernandez (Steamer ranked 17^th), Brandon McCarthy (22^nd), John Lackey (25^th), Mike Fiers (26^th), Homer Bailey (28^th), Danny Salazar (30^th), Scott Kazmir (31^st), Francisco Liriano (33^rd), Phil Hughes (34^th), Ian Kennedy (37^th), Anibal Sanchez (38^th), and Jake Peavy (39^th).

Up next: Starting Pitchers 41-60