Author Archive

Hardball Retrospective – What Might Have Been – The “Original” 2003 Indians

In “Hardball Retrospective: Evaluating Scouting and Development Outcomes for the Modern-Era Franchises”, I placed every ballplayer in the modern era (from 1901-present) on their original team. I calculated revised standings for every season based entirely on the performance of each team’s “original” players. I discuss every team’s “original” players and seasons at length along with organizational performance with respect to the Amateur Draft (or First-Year Player Draft), amateur free agent signings and other methods of player acquisition.  Season standings, WAR and Win Shares totals for the “original” teams are compared against the “actual” team results to assess each franchise’s scouting, development and general management skills.

Expanding on my research for the book, the following series of articles will reveal the teams with the biggest single-season difference in the WAR and Win Shares for the “Original” vs. “Actual” rosters for every Major League organization. “Hardball Retrospective” is available in digital format on Amazon, Barnes and Noble, GooglePlay, iTunes and KoboBooks. The paperback edition is available on Amazon, Barnes and Noble and CreateSpace. Supplemental Statistics, Charts and Graphs along with a discussion forum are offered at TuataraSoftware.com.

Don Daglow (Intellivision World Series Major League Baseball, Earl Weaver Baseball, Tony LaRussa Baseball) contributed the foreword for Hardball Retrospective. The foreword and preview of my book are accessible here.

Terminology

OWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “original” teams

OWS – Win Shares for players on “original” teams

OPW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “original” teams

AWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “actual” teams

AWS – Win Shares for players on “actual” teams

APW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “actual” teams

Assessment

The 2003 Cleveland Indians 

OWAR: 41.6     OWS: 262     OPW%: .500     (81-81)

AWAR: 26.7      AWS: 204     APW%: .420     (68-94)

WARdiff: 14.9                        WSdiff: 58  

The “Original” 2003 Indians came within one game of the American League Central Division title as the White Sox held off the Tribe and the Twins. Jim Thome launched a League-leading 47 moon-shots and drove in a career-best 131 baserunners. He scored 111 runs, drew 111 bases on balls and earned his highest finish in the MVP balloting (fourth). Manny Ramirez scorched the opposition with a .325 BA, 37 wallops, 104 ribbies, 117 runs scored and a League-best OBP of .427. Richie Sexson (.272/45/124) matched his career-best in home runs and fell one short of his top RBI mark. Brian S. Giles suffered a drop in production from his previous four campaigns but still managed to belt 20 long balls while posting a .299 BA.  “The Mayor” Sean Casey hit at a .291 clip but otherwise failed to deliver the power output expected from a first baseman. The lineup for the “Actual” 2003 Indians featured Milton Bradley (.321/10/56) and rookie outfielder Jody Gerut (.279/22/75).

Omar Vizquel (61st-SS) and Ellis Burks (77th-CF) placed in the top 100 player rankings according to “The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract among members of the “Actuals” roster.

  Original 2003 Indians                               Actual 2003 Indians

STARTING LINEUP POS OWAR OWS STARTING LINEUP POS AWAR AWS
Manny Ramirez LF 3.63 26.99 Matt Lawton LF 1.07 9.65
Brian S. Giles CF/LF 5.09 24.55 Milton Bradley CF 4.21 18.53
Dustan Mohr RF 0.52 7.06 Jody Gerut RF 1.98 14.24
Richie Sexson DH/1B 4.13 24.93 Travis Hafner DH 0.8 7.4
Jim Thome 1B 4.56 28.67 Ben Broussard 1B 0.59 8.77
John McDonald 2B -0.43 2.04 Brandon Phillips 2B -1.22 4.28
Jhonny Peralta SS 0.16 4.22 Omar Vizquel SS 0.11 5.25
Russell Branyan 3B 0.44 5.82 Casey Blake 3B 0.51 11.48
Einar Diaz C 0.63 4.75 Josh Bard C 0.81 6.35
BENCH POS AWAR AWS BENCH POS AWAR AWS
Sean Casey 1B -0.27 14.88 Coco Crisp CF -0.17 6.51
David Bell 3B 0.12 4.42 Shane Spencer RF 0.69 4.99
Kelly Stinnett C -0.07 3.49 Ellis Burks DH 0.38 4.76
Victor Martinez C 0.27 3.36 Jhonny Peralta SS 0.16 4.22
Damian Jackson 2B -0.44 1.85 Ryan Ludwick RF 0.56 3.94
Marco Scutaro 2B 0.19 1.81 Victor Martinez C 0.27 3.36
Julius Matos 3B -0.14 0.6 Alex Escobar RF 0.51 3.01
Zach Sorensen 2B -0.28 0.32 Tim Laker C -0.1 2.71
Mike Edwards DH 0.03 0.19 John McDonald 2B -0.43 2.04
Herbert Perry 1B -0.3 0.07 Angel Santos 2B 0.05 1.47
Mark Budzinski CF -0.09 0.03 Chris Magruder LF 0.32 1.42
Mike Glavine 1B -0.09 0.01 Ricky Gutierrez SS -0.08 0.79
Mitch Meluskey -0.04 0 Greg LaRocca 3B 0.06 0.39
Zach Sorensen 2B -0.28 0.32
Bill Selby 3B -0.5 0.3
Karim Garcia RF -0.51 0.22

Bartolo Colon (15-13, 3.87) fashioned a WHIP of 1.198 and topped the American League with 9 complete games. Six-time All-Star lefthander C.C. Sabathia (13-9, 3.60) appeared in his first Mid-Summer Classic. David Riske notched 8 saves and a 0.964 WHIP along with a personal-best 2.29 ERA. Danys Baez (3.81, 25 SV) and Julian Tavarez (3.60, 11 SV) bolstered the relief corps.

  Original 2003 Indians                            Actual 2003 Indians  

ROTATION POS OWAR OWS ROTATION POS AWAR AWS
Bartolo Colon SP 5.23 17.34 CC Sabathia SP 3.86 12.89
CC Sabathia SP 3.86 12.89 Brian Anderson SP 0.32 6.67
Jason Davis SP 0.07 5.13 Jake Westbrook SP 1.12 5.8
Danny Graves SP -0.4 3.4 Jason Davis SP 0.07 5.13
Jason Stanford SP 1.03 2.85 Billy Traber SP 0.05 2.96
BULLPEN POS OWAR OWS BULLPEN POS OWAR OWS
David Riske RP 2.07 9.84 David Riske RP 2.07 9.84
Julian Tavarez RP 0.52 9.19 Danys Baez RP 0.28 8.61
Danys Baez RP 0.28 8.61 Jack Cressend RP 0.95 4.05
Curt Leskanic RP 1.72 8.09 Rafael Betancourt RP 0.86 3.92
Paul Shuey RP 0.55 6.62 Jason Boyd RP 0.18 3.19
Steve Kline RP 0.44 5.05 Jason Stanford SP 1.03 2.85
Alan Embree RP 0.68 4.91 Terry Mulholland RP -0.62 2.71
Mike Matthews RP -0.18 2.91 Cliff Lee SP 0.42 2.69
Jaret Wright RP -1.84 1.31 Jose Santiago RP 0.51 2.28
Travis Driskill RP -0.95 0.64 Dan Miceli RP 0.38 1.54
Charles Nagy RP -0.11 0.17 Carl Sadler RP 0.29 0.92
Brian Tallet SP -0.23 0.14 Ricardo Rodriguez SP -0.62 0.59
Mike Bacsik SP -0.86 0 David Lee RP -0.01 0.51
Ryan Drese SP -0.85 0 Jason Bere SP 0.11 0.32
Tim Drew SW -0.58 0 Brian Tallet SP -0.23 0.14
Alex Herrera RP -0.35 0 Nick Bierbrodt RP -0.19 0
Albie Lopez RP -1.49 0 David Cortes RP -0.32 0
Robert Person RP -0.29 0 Chad Durbin SP -0.57 0
Rudy Seanez RP -0.17 0 Dave Elder RP -0.37 0
Matt White RP -0.93 0 Alex Herrera RP -0.35 0
Aaron Myette RP -0.5 0
Chad Paronto RP -0.44 0
Jason Phillips RP -0.24 0
Jerrod Riggan RP -0.19 0

Notable Transactions

Jim Thome 

October 28, 2002: Granted Free Agency.

December 6, 2002: Signed as a Free Agent with the Philadelphia Phillies. 

Manny Ramirez

October 27, 2000: Granted Free Agency.

December 19, 2000: Signed as a Free Agent with the Boston Red Sox.

Richie Sexson

July 28, 2000: Traded by the Cleveland Indians with a player to be named later, Kane Davis and Paul Rigdon to the Milwaukee Brewers for Jason Bere, Bob Wickman and Steve Woodard. The Cleveland Indians sent Marco Scutaro (August 30, 2000) to the Milwaukee Brewers to complete the trade. 

Brian S. Giles

November 18, 1998: Traded by the Cleveland Indians to the Pittsburgh Pirates for Ricardo Rincon.

Bartolo Colon 

June 27, 2002: Traded by the Cleveland Indians with Tim Drew to the Montreal Expos for Cliff Lee, Brandon Phillips, Grady Sizemore and Lee Stevens. 

Sean Casey 

March 30, 1998: Traded by the Cleveland Indians to the Cincinnati Reds for Dave Burba.

Honorable Mention

The 1941 Cleveland Indians 

OWAR: 43.0     OWS: 267     OPW%: .545     (84-70)

AWAR: 34.9      AWS: 225     APW%: .487     (75-79)

WARdiff: 8.1                        WSdiff: 42  

Engaged in heated combat with the Red Sox and Yankees down the stretch in ’41, the Tribe emerged in third place, four games behind Boston. Thornton Lee (22-11, 2.37) topped the Junior Circuit in ERA, WHIP (1.165) and complete games (30) to merit his lone All-Star invitation. Bob Feller (25-13, 3.15) led the League in victories, starts (40), shutouts (6) and innings pitched (343). “Rapid Robert” paced the AL in strikeouts for the fourth consecutive season and placed third in the MVP voting. Jeff Heath (.340/24/123) established career-highs in base hits (199), triples (20), RBI and stolen bases (18) while making his first All-Star appearance. “Old Reliable” Tommy Henrich clubbed a career-best 31 round-trippers and registered 106 tallies. Ken Keltner rapped 31 doubles, 13 triples and 23 circuit clouts. “Old Shufflefoot” Lou Boudreau socked 45 two-baggers and scored 95 runs.

On Deck

What Might Have Been – The “Original” 2010 Orioles

References and Resources

Baseball America – Executive Database

Baseball-Reference

James, Bill. The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract. New York, NY.: The Free Press, 2001. Print.

James, Bill, with Jim Henzler. Win Shares. Morton Grove, Ill.: STATS, 2002. Print.

Retrosheet – Transactions Database

The information used here was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Interested parties may contact Retrosheet at “www.retrosheet.org”.

Seamheads – Baseball Gauge

Sean Lahman Baseball Archive


Hardball Retrospective – What Might Have Been – The “Original” 2001 Rangers

In “Hardball Retrospective: Evaluating Scouting and Development Outcomes for the Modern-Era Franchises”, I placed every ballplayer in the modern era (from 1901-present) on their original team. I calculated revised standings for every season based entirely on the performance of each team’s “original” players. I discuss every team’s “original” players and seasons at length along with organizational performance with respect to the Amateur Draft (or First-Year Player Draft), amateur free agent signings and other methods of player acquisition.  Season standings, WAR and Win Shares totals for the “original” teams are compared against the “actual” team results to assess each franchise’s scouting, development and general management skills.

Expanding on my research for the book, the following series of articles will reveal the teams with the biggest single-season difference in the WAR and Win Shares for the “Original” vs. “Actual” rosters for every Major League organization. “Hardball Retrospective” is available in digital format on Amazon, Barnes and Noble, GooglePlay, iTunes and KoboBooks. The paperback edition is available on Amazon, Barnes and Noble and CreateSpace. Supplemental Statistics, Charts and Graphs along with a discussion forum are offered at TuataraSoftware.com.

Don Daglow (Intellivision World Series Major League Baseball, Earl Weaver Baseball, Tony LaRussa Baseball) contributed the foreword for Hardball Retrospective. The foreword and preview of my book are accessible here.

Terminology

OWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “original” teams

OWS – Win Shares for players on “original” teams

OPW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “original” teams

AWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “actual” teams

AWS – Win Shares for players on “actual” teams

APW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “actual” teams

Assessment

The 2001 Texas Rangers 

OWAR: 48.4     OWS: 278     OPW%: .513     (83-79)

AWAR: 34.2      AWS: 219     APW%: .451     (73-89)

WARdiff: 14.2                        WSdiff: 59  

The “Original” 2001 Rangers placed third in the American League West behind Seattle and Oakland. Sammy “Say It Ain’t” Sosa (.328/64/160) established personal bests in batting average, runs scored (146), RBI and bases on balls (116) while placing runner-up in the MVP balloting. Rich Aurilia (.324/37/97) contributed career-highs in nearly every batting classification including 114 tallies and 206 safeties. Juan “Igor” Gonzalez (.325/35/140) achieved his third All-Star invite and finished fifth in the American League MVP race. Ivan “Pudge” Rodriguez (.308/25/65) merited his tenth straight Gold Glove Award. Jose Hernandez swatted 26 two-baggers and 25 big-flies. The “Actuals” lineup featured Alex Rodriguez (.318/52/135) who paced the circuit in four-baggers and runs scored (133). Rafael Palmeiro (.273/47/123) surpassed the century mark in walks and equaled his single-season HR total. Frank Catalanotto batted at a .330 clip and ripped 31 two-base hits.

Ivan Rodriguez rated thirteenth among backstops according to “The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract” top 100 player rankings. “Original” Rangers registered in the “NBJHBA” top 100 ratings include Sammy Sosa (45th-RF), Juan Gonzalez (52nd-RF) and Ruben Sierra (70th-RF). Moreover, Alex Rodriguez (17th-SS), Rafael Palmeiro (19th-1B), Ken Caminiti (25th-3B) and Andres Galarraga (42nd-1B) achieved the distinction among members of the “Actuals” roster.

  Original 2001 Rangers                              Actual 2001 Rangers

STARTING LINEUP POS OWAR OWS STARTING LINEUP POS AWAR AWS
Rusty Greer LF -0.04 5.64 Frank Catalanotto LF 2.19 16.86
Mark Little CF 0.39 2.69 Gabe Kapler CF 0.85 12.52
Sammy Sosa RF 9.56 43.85 Ricky Ledee RF -0.48 2.21
Juan Gonzalez DH/RF 4.21 23.5 Ruben Sierra DH 0.82 9.21
Carlos Pena 1B 0.21 2.01 Rafael Palmeiro 1B 3.62 24.62
Benji Gil 2B/SS 0.99 6.69 Randy Velarde 2B 1.57 8.75
Rich Aurilia SS 5.46 32.44 Alex Rodriguez SS 8.2 34.67
Mike Lamb 3B -0.03 6.37 Mike Lamb 3B -0.03 6.37
Ivan Rodriguez C 3.92 19.8 Ivan Rodriguez C 3.92 19.8
BENCH POS OWAR OWS BENCH POS AWAR AWS
Rey Sanchez SS 2.37 13.45 Michael Young 2B 0.09 6.32
Jose Hernandez SS 2.7 12.63 Rusty Greer LF -0.04 5.64
Ruben Sierra DH 0.82 9.21 Bill Haselman C 0.09 3.71
Chad Kreuter C 1.28 9.03 Ken Caminiti 3B -0.07 3.66
Dean Palmer DH 0.14 4.53 Andres Galarraga DH -0.71 3.22
Bill Haselman C 0.09 3.71 Chad Curtis CF 0.14 2.04
Jeff Frye 2B -0.45 3.61 Carlos Pena 1B 0.21 2.01
Fernando Tatis 3B -0.26 2.25 Doug Mirabelli C -0.09 1.31
Ruben Mateo RF -0.61 1.31 Ruben Mateo RF -0.61 1.31
Andy Barkett LF 0.11 1.26 Scott Sheldon 3B -0.56 0.89
Kevin L. Brown C 0.11 1.09 Bo Porter LF -0.18 0.77
Craig Monroe RF 0.03 0.61 Craig Monroe RF 0.03 0.61
Warren Morris 2B -0.43 0.53 Mike Hubbard C 0.06 0.41
Cliff Brumbaugh RF -0.39 0.24 Marcus Jensen C -0.27 0.29
Scott Podsednik LF -0.06 0.04 Chris Magruder LF -0.32 0.12
Kelly Dransfeldt SS -0.03 0.04 Kelly Dransfeldt SS -0.03 0.04
Cliff Brumbaugh RF -0.16 0.02

Kevin J. Brown (10-4, 2.65) fashioned a 1.141 WHIP in an abbreviated season (19 starts). Robb Nen (3.01, 45 SV) struck out 93 batters in 77.2 innings and topped the circuit in saves. Jeff Zimmerman (2.40, 28 SV) was nearly unhittable out of the bullpen, producing a 0.897 WHIP.

  Original 2001 Rangers                            Actual 2001 Rangers 

ROTATION POS OWAR OWS ROTATION POS AWAR AWS
Kevin J. Brown SP 2.66 10.63 Doug Davis SP 2.6 9.25
Doug Davis SP 2.6 9.25 Rick Helling SP 1.67 8.01
Jim Brower SP 1.47 8.13 Darren Oliver SP -0.06 3.78
Rick Helling SP 1.67 8.01 Kenny Rogers SP -0.37 1.96
Ryan Dempster SP 0.53 7.65 Aaron Myette SP -0.79 0.19
BULLPEN POS OWAR OWS BULLPEN POS AWAR AWS
Robb Nen RP 1.3 13.82 Jeff Zimmerman RP 3.13 13.09
Jeff Zimmerman RP 3.13 13.09 Mike Venafro RP 0.24 4.77
Danny Patterson RP 1.29 6.66 Pat Mahomes RP -0.13 3.56
Scott Stewart RP 0.73 5.53 Juan Moreno RP 0.44 3
Mike Venafro RP 0.24 4.77 Chris Michalak RP 0.49 1.82
Darren Oliver SP -0.06 3.78 Danny Kolb RP 0.16 0.85
Bobby Witt SP 0.5 2.53 Jeff Brantley RP 0.09 0.68
Kenny Rogers SP -0.37 1.96 J. D. Smart RP -0.15 0.26
Scott Eyre RP 0.34 1.82 Mark Petkovsek RP -1.42 0.22
Brian Bohanon SP 0.11 1.78 Francisco Cordero RP 0.06 0.1
Joey Eischen RP 0 1.27 Rob Bell SP -1.14 0.08
Danny Kolb RP 0.16 0.85 R. A. Dickey RP -0.17 0.01
Luis Pineda RP -0.01 0.65 Kevin Foster RP -0.32 0.01
Mark Petkovsek RP -1.42 0.22 Joaquin Benoit SP -0.2 0
Billy Taylor RP 0.01 0.1 Tim Crabtree RP -0.39 0
R. A. Dickey RP -0.17 0.01 Justin Duchscherer SP -0.8 0
Joaquin Benoit SP -0.2 0 Ryan Glynn SP -0.51 0
Ryan Glynn SP -0.51 0 Jonathan Johnson RP -0.44 0
Jonathan Johnson RP -0.44 0 Mike Judd SP -0.33 0
Brandon Knight RP -0.54 0 Brandon Villafuerte RP -0.51 0
Matt Whiteside RP -0.61 0

 Notable Transactions

Sammy Sosa 

July 29, 1989: Traded by the Texas Rangers with Wilson Alvarez and Scott Fletcher to the Chicago White Sox for Harold Baines and Fred Manrique.

March 30, 1992: Traded by the Chicago White Sox with Ken Patterson to the Chicago Cubs for George Bell.

Rich Aurilia

December 22, 1994: Traded by the Texas Rangers with Desi Wilson to the San Francisco Giants for John Burkett.

Juan Gonzalez

November 2, 1999: Traded by the Texas Rangers with Danny Patterson and Gregg Zaun to the Detroit Tigers for Alan Webb (minors), Frank Catalanotto, Francisco Cordero, Bill Haselman, Gabe Kapler and Justin Thompson.

November 1, 2000: Granted Free Agency.

January 9, 2001: Signed as a Free Agent with the Cleveland Indians. 

Robb Nen

July 17, 1993: Traded by the Texas Rangers with Kurt Miller to the Florida Marlins for Cris Carpenter.

November 18, 1997: Traded by the Florida Marlins to the San Francisco Giants for Mick Pageler (minors), Mike Villano (minors) and Joe Fontenot.

Rey Sanchez 

January 3, 1990: Traded by the Texas Rangers to the Chicago Cubs for Bryan House (minors).

August 16, 1997: Traded by the Chicago Cubs to the New York Yankees for Frisco Parotte (minors).

November 3, 1997: Granted Free Agency.

January 22, 1998: Signed as a Free Agent with the San Francisco Giants.

November 5, 1998: Granted Free Agency.

December 11, 1998: Signed as a Free Agent with the Kansas City Royals.

October 29, 1999: Granted Free Agency.

December 7, 1999: Signed as a Free Agent with the Kansas City Royals. 

Jose Hernandez 

April 3, 1992: Selected off waivers by the Cleveland Indians from the Texas Rangers.

June 1, 1993: Traded by the Cleveland Indians to the Chicago Cubs for Heathcliff Slocumb.

July 31, 1999: Traded by the Chicago Cubs with Terry Mulholland to the Atlanta Braves for a player to be named later, Micah Bowie and Ruben Quevedo. The Atlanta Braves sent Joey Nation (August 24, 1999) to the Chicago Cubs to complete the trade.

November 5, 1999: Granted Free Agency.

December 16, 1999: Signed as a Free Agent with the Milwaukee Brewers.

Kevin J. Brown 

October 15, 1994: Granted Free Agency.

April 9, 1995: Signed as a Free Agent with the Baltimore Orioles.

November 3, 1995: Granted Free Agency.

December 22, 1995: Signed as a Free Agent with the Florida Marlins.

December 15, 1997: Traded by the Florida Marlins to the San Diego Padres for Steve Hoff (minors), Derrek Lee and Rafael Medina.

October 26, 1998: Granted Free Agency.

December 12, 1998: Signed as a Free Agent with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Honorable Mention

The 2007 Texas Rangers 

OWAR: 36.9     OWS: 249     OPW%: .496     (80-82)

AWAR: 27.8      AWS: 225     APW%: .463     (75-87)

WARdiff: 9.1                        WSdiff: 24  

Texas finished a distant sixteen games behind Seattle in ’07. Carlos Pena (.282/46/121) registered 99 tallies and achieved personal-bests in virtually every offensive category. Mark Teixeira tagged 30 long balls, drove in 105 baserunners and contributed a .306 BA. Ian Kinsler swiped 23 bases in 25 attempts, scored 96 runs and clubbed 20 dingers during his sophomore season. Travis “Pronk” Hafner blasted 24 dingers and eclipsed the century mark in RBI for the fourth consecutive campaign. Ivan Rodriguez drilled 31 two-base hits while third-sacker Edwin Encarnacion delivered a .289 BA with 16 jacks. Aaron Harang (16-6, 3.73) posted a career-best 1.144 WHIP and placed fourth in the Cy Young balloting. Joaquin Benoit whiffed 87 batsmen over 82 innings while furnishing a 2.85 ERA along with a WHIP of 1.171.

On Deck

What Might Have Been – The “Original” 2003 Indians

References and Resources

Baseball America – Executive Database

Baseball-Reference

James, Bill. The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract. New York, NY.: The Free Press, 2001. Print.

James, Bill, with Jim Henzler. Win Shares. Morton Grove, Ill.: STATS, 2002. Print.

Retrosheet – Transactions Database 

The information used here was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Interested parties may contact Retrosheet at “www.retrosheet.org”.

Seamheads – Baseball Gauge

Sean Lahman Baseball Archive


Hardball Retrospective – What Might Have Been – The “Original” 1999 White Sox

In “Hardball Retrospective: Evaluating Scouting and Development Outcomes for the Modern-Era Franchises”, I placed every ballplayer in the modern era (from 1901-present) on their original team. I calculated revised standings for every season based entirely on the performance of each team’s “original” players. I discuss every team’s “original” players and seasons at length along with organizational performance with respect to the Amateur Draft (or First-Year Player Draft), amateur free agent signings and other methods of player acquisition.  Season standings, WAR and Win Shares totals for the “original” teams are compared against the “actual” team results to assess each franchise’s scouting, development and general management skills.

Expanding on my research for the book, the following series of articles will reveal the teams with the biggest single-season difference in the WAR and Win Shares for the “Original” vs. “Actual” rosters for every Major League organization. “Hardball Retrospective” is available in digital format on Amazon, Barnes and Noble, GooglePlay, iTunes and KoboBooks. The paperback edition is available on Amazon, Barnes and Noble and CreateSpace. Supplemental Statistics, Charts and Graphs along with a discussion forum are offered at TuataraSoftware.com.

Don Daglow (Intellivision World Series Major League Baseball, Earl Weaver Baseball, Tony LaRussa Baseball) contributed the foreword for Hardball Retrospective. The foreword and preview of my book are accessible here.

Terminology

OWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “original” teams

OWS – Win Shares for players on “original” teams

OPW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “original” teams

AWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “actual” teams

AWS – Win Shares for players on “actual” teams

APW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “actual” teams

Assessment

The 1999 Chicago White Sox 

OWAR: 45.1     OWS: 289     OPW%: .504     (82-80)

AWAR: 28.5      AWS: 225     APW%: .466     (75-86)

WARdiff: 16.6                        WSdiff: 64  

The “Original” 1999 White Sox tied the Royals for second place in the American League Central, eight games behind the Indians. Robin Ventura (.301/32/120) established career-highs in batting average and RBI while earning his sixth Gold Glove Award at the hot corner. Randy Velarde (.317/16/76) rapped 200 base knocks and set personal-bests in almost every offensive category. Mike Cameron drilled 34 doubles and pilfered 38 bags. Harold Baines (.312/25/103) topped the century mark in RBI for the third time in his career during his age-40 season. Ray Durham registered 109 tallies and swiped 34 bags. Magglio Ordonez (.301/30/117) scored 100 runs and merited his first All-Star invitation. Frank E. Thomas clubbed 36 two-baggers and delivered a .305 BA. Chris Singleton (.300/17/72) placed sixth in the AL Rookie of the Year balloting and Paul Konerko contributed 24 dingers and 81 ribbies for the “Actuals”.

Frank E. Thomas rated tenth among first basemen according to “The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract” top 100 player rankings. “Original” White Sox chronicled in the “NBJHBA” top 100 ratings include Robin Ventura (22nd-3B) and Harold Baines (42nd-RF).

  Original 1999 White Sox                          Actual 1999 White Sox

STARTING LINEUP POS OWAR OWS STARTING LINEUP POS OWAR OWS
Carlos Lee LF -0.04 10.36 Carlos Lee LF -0.04 10.36
Mike Cameron CF 3.63 21.44 Chris Singleton CF 2.61 16.33
Magglio Ordonez RF 1.7 18.56 Magglio Ordonez RF 1.7 18.56
Harold Baines DH 1.7 12.96 Frank E. Thomas DH 2.2 17.07
Frank E. Thomas 1B/DH 2.2 17.07 Paul Konerko 1B 1.45 14.68
Randy Velarde 2B 5.23 24.19 Ray Durham 2B 3.63 20.45
Liu Rodriguez SS/2B -0.12 1.41 Mike Caruso SS -2.58 4.25
Robin Ventura 3B 5.1 28.27 Greg Norton 3B 0.06 12.36
Mark Johnson C 0.28 6.12 Brook Fordyce C 1.59 11.45
BENCH POS OWAR OWS BENCH POS OWAR OWS
Ray Durham 2B 3.63 20.45 Mark Johnson C 0.28 6.12
Greg Norton 3B 0.06 12.36 Craig Wilson 3B -0.38 4.06
Olmedo Saenz 3B 1.35 8.68 Darrin Jackson LF -0.05 2.68
Craig Grebeck 2B 0.82 4.39 Brian Simmons LF -0.15 1.76
Craig Wilson 3B -0.38 4.06 Liu Rodriguez 2B -0.12 1.41
Brian Simmons LF -0.15 1.76 Jeff Liefer 1B -0.6 0.91
Jeff Liefer 1B -0.6 0.91 McKay Christensen CF -0.27 0.47
Norberto Martin 2B 0.09 0.44 Jason Dellaero SS -0.39 0.32
Jason Dellaero SS -0.39 0.32 Josh Paul C -0.09 0.27
Josh Paul C -0.09 0.27 Jeff Abbott LF -0.73 0.18
Robert Machado C -0.08 0.22
Chris Tremie C -0.18 0.18
Jeff Abbott LF -0.73 0.18
Frank Menechino SS -0.08 0.14
John Cangelosi LF -0.06 0.02

Mike Sirotka (11-13, 4.00) and James Baldwin (12-13, 5.00) labored through their second seasons in the Sox rotation. Alex Fernandez supplied a 7-8 record with a 3.38 ERA after missing the entire 1998 campaign due to injury. Bob Wickman notched 37 saves with an ERA of 3.39 for the “Originals” while Keith Foulke (2.22, 9 SV) and Bob Howry (3.59, 28 SV) secured late-inning leads for the “Actuals”.

  Original 1999 White Sox                       Actual 1999 White Sox 

ROTATION POS OWAR OWS ROTATION POS AWAR AWS
Mike Sirotka SP 3.94 13.5 Mike Sirotka SP 3.94 13.5
Alex Fernandez SP 3.34 10.47 James Baldwin SP 2.19 9.47
James Baldwin SP 2.19 9.47 Jim Parque SP 1.26 6.82
Brian Boehringer SP 1.64 6.91 Kip Wells SP 0.79 2.93
Jim Parque SP 1.26 6.82 Jaime Navarro SP -1.15 2.16
BULLPEN POS OWAR OWS BULLPEN POS AWAR AWS
Bob Wickman RP 1.33 10.19 Keith Foulke RP 3.86 16.7
Al Levine RP 0.77 6.84 Bob Howry RP 0.61 10.06
Pedro Borbon RP 0.36 4.11 Sean Lowe RP 1.58 7.94
Buddy Groom RP -0.27 3.49 Bill Simas RP 0.68 6.46
Steve Schrenk RP 0.54 3.04 Carlos Castillo SW 0.05 1.45
Kip Wells SP 0.79 2.93 John Snyder SP -0.97 1.22
Scott Radinsky RP 0 2.35 Tanyon Sturtze SP 0.48 0.91
Jason Bere SP -0.6 1.6 Pat Daneker SP 0.23 0.82
Carlos Castillo SW 0.05 1.45 Jesus Pena RP -0.27 0.42
Pat Daneker SP 0.23 0.82 Joe Davenport RP 0.13 0.25
Aaron Myette SP 0 0.11 Aaron Myette SP 0 0.11
Chad Bradford RP -0.5 0 Bryan Ward RP -1.15 0.09
John Hudek RP -1.04 0 Chad Bradford RP -0.5 0
David Lundquist RP -0.74 0 Scott Eyre RP -0.66 0
Jack McDowell SP -0.36 0 David Lundquist RP -0.74 0
Nerio Rodriguez RP -0.16 0 Todd Rizzo RP -0.11 0

 

Notable Transactions

Robin Ventura 

October 23, 1998: Granted Free Agency.

December 1, 1998: Signed as a Free Agent with the New York Mets. 

Randy Velarde

January 5, 1987: Traded by the Chicago White Sox with Pete Filson to the New York Yankees for Mike Soper (minors) and Scott Nielsen.

December 23, 1994: Granted Free Agency.

April 12, 1995: Signed as a Free Agent with the New York Yankees.

November 2, 1995: Granted Free Agency.

November 21, 1995: Signed as a Free Agent with the California Angels.

October 23, 1998: Granted Free Agency.

December 7, 1998: Signed as a Free Agent with the Anaheim Angels.

Mike Cameron

November 11, 1998: Traded by the Chicago White Sox to the Cincinnati Reds for Paul Konerko. 

Harold Baines

July 29, 1989: Traded by the Chicago White Sox with Fred Manrique to the Texas Rangers for Wilson Alvarez, Scott Fletcher and Sammy Sosa.

August 29, 1990: Traded by the Texas Rangers to the Oakland Athletics for players to be named later. The Oakland Athletics sent Joe Bitker (September 4, 1990) and Scott Chiamparino (September 4, 1990) to the Texas Rangers to complete the trade.

January 14, 1993: Traded by the Oakland Athletics to the Baltimore Orioles for Allen Plaster (minors) and Bobby Chouinard.

November 1, 1993: Granted Free Agency.

December 2, 1993: Signed as a Free Agent with the Baltimore Orioles.

October 20, 1994: Granted Free Agency.

December 23, 1994: Signed as a Free Agent with the Baltimore Orioles.

November 6, 1995: Granted Free Agency.

December 11, 1995: Signed as a Free Agent with the Chicago White Sox.

November 18, 1996: Granted Free Agency.

January 10, 1997: Signed as a Free Agent with the Chicago White Sox.

July 29, 1997: Traded by the Chicago White Sox to the Baltimore Orioles for a player to be named later. The Baltimore Orioles sent Juan Bautista (minors) (August 18, 1997) to the Chicago White Sox to complete the trade.

October 29, 1997: Granted Free Agency.

December 19, 1997: Signed as a Free Agent with the Baltimore Orioles.

Alex Fernandez 

December 7, 1996: Granted Free Agency.

December 9, 1996: Signed as a Free Agent with the Florida Marlins. 

Bob Wickman 

January 10, 1992: Traded by the Chicago White Sox with Domingo Jean and Melido Perez to the New York Yankees for Steve Sax.

August 23, 1996: Traded by the New York Yankees with Gerald Williams to the Milwaukee Brewers for a player to be named later, Pat Listach and Graeme Lloyd. The Milwaukee Brewers sent Ricky Bones (August 29, 1996) to the New York Yankees to complete the trade. Pat Listach returned to original team on October 2, 1996.

Honorable Mention

The 1932 Chicago White Sox 

OWAR: 21.5     OWS: 205     OPW%: .380     (58-96)

AWAR: 17.0      AWS: 147     APW%: .325     (49-102)

WARdiff: 4.5                        WSdiff: 58  

The cellar-dwelling “Original” 1932 White Sox fared better than their “Actual” counterparts in terms of team WAR, Win Shares and winning percentage. Although the “Actuals” recorded only 49 victories, the team finished in seventh place ahead of the miserable Red Sox (43-111). Willie Kamm clubbed 34 doubles, delivered a .286 BA and drove in 83 baserunners for the Pale Hose. Second-sacker Bill Cissell posted career-bests in batting average (.315), runs (85), hits (184), doubles (36), home runs (7) and RBI (98). Rookie right fielder Bruce Campbell (.286/14/87) contributed 36 two-baggers and 11 three-base hits. Smead “Smudge” Jolley (.312/18/106) drilled 30 doubles while outfield mate Carl Reynolds produced a .305 BA. Luke Appling aka “Old Aches and Pains” rewarded the Chicago brass with 20 two-base hits and 10 triples after achieving full-time status. Ted Lyons completed 19 of 26 starts and furnished an ERA of 3.28.

On Deck

What Might Have Been – The “Original” 2001 Rangers

References and Resources

Baseball America – Executive Database

Baseball-Reference

James, Bill. The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract. New York, NY.: The Free Press, 2001. Print.

James, Bill, with Jim Henzler. Win Shares. Morton Grove, Ill.: STATS, 2002. Print.

Retrosheet – Transactions Database

The information used here was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Interested parties may contact Retrosheet at “www.retrosheet.org”.

Seamheads – Baseball Gauge

Sean Lahman Baseball Archive

 


Hardball Retrospective – What Might Have Been – The “Original” 1993 Angels

In “Hardball Retrospective: Evaluating Scouting and Development Outcomes for the Modern-Era Franchises”, I placed every ballplayer in the modern era (from 1901-present) on their original team. I calculated revised standings for every season based entirely on the performance of each team’s “original” players. I discuss every team’s “original” players and seasons at length along with organizational performance with respect to the Amateur Draft (or First-Year Player Draft), amateur free agent signings and other methods of player acquisition.  Season standings, WAR and Win Shares totals for the “original” teams are compared against the “actual” team results to assess each franchise’s scouting, development and general management skills.

Expanding on my research for the book, the following series of articles will reveal the teams with the biggest single-season difference in the WAR and Win Shares for the “Original” vs. “Actual” rosters for every Major League organization. “Hardball Retrospective” is available in digital format on Amazon, Barnes and Noble, GooglePlay, iTunes and KoboBooks. The paperback edition is available on Amazon, Barnes and Noble and CreateSpace. Supplemental Statistics, Charts and Graphs along with a discussion forum are offered at TuataraSoftware.com.

Don Daglow (Intellivision World Series Major League Baseball, Earl Weaver Baseball, Tony LaRussa Baseball) contributed the foreword for Hardball Retrospective. The foreword and preview of my book are accessible here.

Terminology

OWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “original” teams

OWS – Win Shares for players on “original” teams

OPW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “original” teams

AWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “actual” teams

AWS – Win Shares for players on “actual” teams

APW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “actual” teams

Assessment

The 1993 California Angels 

OWAR: 39.3     OWS: 277     OPW%: .533     (86-76)

AWAR: 27.8      AWS: 212     APW%: .438     (71-91)

WARdiff: 11.5                        WSdiff: 65  

The “Original” 1993 Angels placed runner-up to the Rangers for the division title, yet the ball club held a fifteen-game advantage over the “Actual” Halos. Tim Salmon garnered 1993 AL Rookie of the Year honors with a .283 BA, 31 dingers, 95 ribbies and 93 runs. Devon White collected his fifth Gold Glove Award and posted career-bests with 42 doubles and 116 runs scored. “Devo” successfully swiped 34 bags in 38 attempts. Dante Bichette provided a .310 BA while clubbing 43 two-base hits and launching 21 moon-shots. Wally Joyner aka “Wally World” contributed 36 doubles along with a .292 BA. Chad Curtis tallied 94 runs and pilfered 48 bases in his sophomore season. Brian Harper (.304/12/73), Mark T. McLemore (.284/4/72) and Paul Sorrento (.257/18/65) augmented the Angels’ attack.

Wally Joyner ranked thirty-seventh among first basemen according to “The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract” top 100 player rankings. “Original” Angels registered in the “NBJHBA” top 100 ratings include Dickie Thon (57th-SS), Tim Salmon (72nd-RF), Devon White (81st-CF), Tom Brunansky (85th-RF), Dante Bichette (90th-RF) and Brian Harper (99th-C). Furthermore, the list includes Gary Gaetti (34th-3B) and Chili Davis (64th-RF) from the “Actual” Angels ’93 roster.

Original 1993 Angels                                      Actual 1993 Angels

STARTING LINEUP POS OWAR OWS STARTING LINEUP POS AWAR AWS
Chad Curtis LF/CF 2.16 16.51 Luis Polonia LF -0.17 10
Devon White CF 4.47 21.28 Chad Curtis CF 2.16 16.51
Tim Salmon RF 4.36 24.61 Tim Salmon RF 4.36 24.61
Dante Bichette DH/RF 1.71 19.35 Chili Davis DH 0.33 11.91
Wally Joyner 1B 3.14 18.09 J. T. Snow 1B 0.66 10.09
Mark McLemore 2B/RF 2.19 13.37 Damion Easley 2B 1.15 8.38
Gary Disarcina SS -1.15 5.73 Rene Gonzales 3B 0.29 7.04
Damion Easley 3B/2B 1.15 8.38 Gary Disarcina SS -1.15 5.73
Brian Harper C 1.27 15.66 Greg Myers C 0.59 4.26
BENCH POS AWAR AWS BENCH POS AWAR AWS
Paul Sorrento 1B 1.03 13.23 Torey Lovullo 2B 0.39 7.35
Erik Pappas C 1 8.23 Stan Javier LF 1.17 7.1
Dickie Thon SS 0.02 4.88 Eduardo Perez 3B -0.21 3.25
Eduardo Perez 3B -0.21 3.25 Rod Correia SS -0.15 2.84
Dick Schofield SS -0.15 2.43 Chris Turner C 0.6 2.25
Ruben Amaro CF 0.44 2.29 Kelly Gruber 3B 0.2 2.19
Chris Turner C 0.6 2.25 Kurt Stillwell 2B -0.19 1.33
Tom Brunansky RF -0.6 1.56 Ron Tingley C -0.47 1.24
Doug Jennings 1B 0.17 1.46 John Orton C 0.05 1.03
John Orton C 0.05 1.03 Jim Edmonds RF -0.13 0.78
J. R. Phillips 1B 0.17 0.87 Ty Van Burkleo 1B -0.03 0.5
Jim Edmonds RF -0.13 0.78 Jim Walewander SS 0.04 0.41
Larry Gonzales C 0.06 0.24 Larry Gonzales C 0.06 0.24
Jeff Manto 3B -0.23 0.09 Gary Gaetti 3B -0.39 0.12
Gus Polidor 3B -0.04 0.02 Jerome Walton DH -0.03 0.06

Chuck Finley (16-14, 3.15) whiffed 187 batsmen and paced the Junior Circuit in complete games with 13. The Halos compensated for a pedestrian rotation with a stellar bullpen consisting of Bryan Harvey (1.70, 45 SV), Roberto Hernandez (2.29, 38 SV) and Alan Mills (5-4, 3.23). Mark Langston (16-11, 3.20) topped the “Actuals” in strikeouts (196) and innings pitched (256.1) while earning his fourth All-Star invitation.

  Original 1993 Angels                              Actual 1993 Angels 

ROTATION POS OWAR OWS ROTATION POS AWAR AWS
Chuck Finley SP 4.9 18.94 Mark Langston SP 6.16 20.37
Jim Abbott SP 1.34 9.75 Chuck Finley SP 4.9 18.94
Frank Tanana SP 1.03 7.07 Scott Sanderson SP 0.65 5.75
Phil Leftwich SP 1.5 5.13 Phil Leftwich SP 1.5 5.13
Kirk McCaskill SP -0.43 2.35 Joe Magrane SP 0.26 2.58
BULLPEN POS OWAR OWS BULLPEN POS OWAR OWS
Bryan Harvey RP 3.46 17.47 Joe Grahe RP 0.86 7.28
Roberto Hernandez RP 2.49 15.5 Steve Frey RP 0.67 6.92
Alan Mills RP 1.45 9.45 Mike Butcher RP 0.33 4.35
Joe Grahe RP 0.86 7.28 Gene Nelson RP 0.32 4.31
Mike Fetters RP 0.25 4.25 Ken Patterson RP 0.19 2.92
Hilly Hathaway SP 0.04 2.15 Hilly Hathaway SP 0.04 2.15
Scott Lewis SP 0.3 1.61 Scott Lewis SP 0.3 1.61
Mike Witt SP -0.13 1.23 Brian Anderson SP 0.17 0.63
Brian Anderson SP 0.17 0.63 Darryl Scott RP -0.22 0.42
Mike Cook RP 0.08 0.47 Chuck Crim RP -0.27 0.4
Darryl Scott RP -0.22 0.42 John Farrell SP -1.65 0
Marcus Moore RP -0.56 0.36 Mark Holzemer SP -0.83 0
Mark Holzemer SP -0.83 0 Doug Linton RP -0.81 0
Dennis Rasmussen SP -0.62 0 Jerry Nielsen RP -0.61 0
Paul Swingle RP -0.37 0 Russ Springer SP -1.03 0
Paul Swingle RP -0.37 0
Julio Valera SP -1.13 0

Notable Transactions

Devon White 

December 2, 1990: Traded by the California Angels with Willie Fraser and Marcus Moore to the Toronto Blue Jays for a player to be named later, Junior Felix and Luis Sojo. The Toronto Blue Jays sent Ken Rivers (minors) (December 4, 1990) to the California Angels to complete the trade. 

Dante Bichette

March 14, 1991: Traded by the California Angels to the Milwaukee Brewers for Dave Parker.

November 17, 1992: Traded by the Milwaukee Brewers to the Colorado Rockies for Kevin Reimer.

Wally Joyner

October 28, 1991: Granted Free Agency.

December 9, 1991: Signed as a Free Agent with the Kansas City Royals. 

Bryan Harvey

November 17, 1992: Drafted by the Florida Marlins from the California Angels as the 20th pick in the 1992 expansion draft.

Brian Harper 

December 11, 1981: Traded by the California Angels to the Pittsburgh Pirates for Tim Foli.

December 12, 1984: Traded by the Pittsburgh Pirates with John Tudor to the St. Louis Cardinals for Steve Barnard (minors) and George Hendrick.

April 1, 1986: Released by the St. Louis Cardinals.

April 25, 1986: Signed as a Free Agent with the Detroit Tigers.

March 23, 1987: Released by the Detroit Tigers.

May 12, 1987: Purchased by the Oakland Athletics from San Jose (California).

October 12, 1987: Released by the Oakland Athletics.

January 4, 1988: Signed as a Free Agent with the Minnesota Twins.

November 4, 1991: Granted Free Agency.

December 19, 1991: Signed as a Free Agent with the Minnesota Twins. 

Mark T. McLemore 

August 17, 1990: the California Angels sent Mark McLemore to the Cleveland Indians to complete an earlier deal made on September 6, 1989. September 6, 1989: The California Angels sent a player to be named later to the Cleveland Indians for Ron Tingley.

December 13, 1990: Released by the Cleveland Indians.

March 6, 1991: Signed as a Free Agent with the Houston Astros.

June 25, 1991: Released by the Houston Astros.

July 5, 1991: Signed as a Free Agent with the Baltimore Orioles.

October 15, 1991: Granted Free Agency.

February 5, 1992: Signed as a Free Agent with the Baltimore Orioles.

December 19, 1992: Released by the Baltimore Orioles.

January 6, 1993: Signed as a Free Agent with the Baltimore Orioles.

Honorable Mention

The 2001 Anaheim Angels 

OWAR: 37.4     OWS: 267     OPW%: .467     (76-86)

AWAR: 31.1      AWS: 225     APW%: .463     (75-87)

WARdiff: 6.3                        WSdiff: 42  

The “Original” and “Actual” 2001 Angels finished in the American League West basement. Perennial Gold Glove center fielder Jim Edmonds socked 38 doubles and 30 long balls. “Jimmy Baseball” supplied a .304 BA with 95 runs scored and 110 ribbies. Mark T. McLemore batted .286 and nabbed 39 bags in 46 attempts. Troy Glaus crushed 41 circuit clouts and 38 two-baggers as he topped the century mark in runs and RBI. Garret Anderson rapped 194 base knocks including 39 doubles and 28 round-trippers while establishing a personal-best with 123 RBI.  Jarrod Washburn delivered 11 victories with an ERA of 3.77. Troy Percival (1.65, 39 SV) made his fourth appearance in the Mid-Summer Classic and furnished a 0.988 WHIP with more than 11 strikeouts per 9 innings pitched. Glaus, Anderson, Washburn and Percival appear on the “Original” and “Actual” Angels rosters in 2001.

On Deck

What Might Have Been – The “Original” 1999 White Sox

References and Resources

Baseball America – Executive Database

Baseball-Reference

James, Bill. The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract. New York, NY.: The Free Press, 2001. Print.

James, Bill, with Jim Henzler. Win Shares. Morton Grove, Ill.: STATS, 2002. Print.

Retrosheet – Transactions Database

The information used here was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Interested parties may contact Retrosheet at “www.retrosheet.org”.

Seamheads – Baseball Gauge

Sean Lahman Baseball Archive


Hardball Retrospective – What Might Have Been – The “Original” 2008 Mariners

In “Hardball Retrospective: Evaluating Scouting and Development Outcomes for the Modern-Era Franchises”, I placed every ballplayer in the modern era (from 1901-present) on their original team. I calculated revised standings for every season based entirely on the performance of each team’s “original” players. I discuss every team’s “original” players and seasons at length along with organizational performance with respect to the Amateur Draft (or First-Year Player Draft), amateur free agent signings and other methods of player acquisition.  Season standings, WAR and Win Shares totals for the “original” teams are compared against the “actual” team results to assess each franchise’s scouting, development and general management skills.

Expanding on my research for the book, the following series of articles will reveal the teams with the biggest single-season difference in the WAR and Win Shares for the “Original” vs. “Actual” rosters for every Major League organization. “Hardball Retrospective” is available in digital format on Amazon, Barnes and Noble, GooglePlay, iTunes and KoboBooks. The paperback edition is available on Amazon, Barnes and Noble and CreateSpace. Supplemental Statistics, Charts and Graphs along with a discussion forum are offered at TuataraSoftware.com.

Don Daglow (Intellivision World Series Major League Baseball, Earl Weaver Baseball, Tony LaRussa Baseball) contributed the foreword for Hardball Retrospective. The foreword and preview of my book are accessible here.

Terminology

OWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “original” teams

OWS – Win Shares for players on “original” teams

OPW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “original” teams

AWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “actual” teams

AWS – Win Shares for players on “actual” teams

APW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “actual” teams

Assessment

 

The 2008 Seattle Mariners 

OWAR: 41.0     OWS: 251     OPW%: .519     (84-78)

AWAR: 21.3      AWS: 183     APW%: .377     (61-101)

WARdiff: 19.7                        WSdiff: 68  

The “Original” 2008 Mariners finished a few percentage points behind the Athletics for the AL West crown but out-gunned the “Actual” M’s by a 23-game margin. Alex Rodriguez (.302/35/103) paced the Junior Circuit with a .573 SLG. Raul Ibanez (.293/23/110) established career-highs with 186 base hits and 43 two-base knocks.  Ichiro Suzuki nabbed 43 bags in 47 attempts and batted .310, topping the League with 213 safeties. Jose Lopez socked 41 doubles and 17 long balls while posting personal-bests with 191 hits and a .297 BA. Adrian Beltre clubbed 25 four-baggers and earned his second Gold Glove Award for the “Actuals”.

Ken Griffey Jr. ranked seventh in the center field charts according to “The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract” top 100 player rankings. “Original” Mariners chronicled in the “NBJHBA” top 100 ratings include Alex Rodriguez (17th-SS) and Omar Vizquel (61st-SS).

 

  Original 2008 Mariners                           Actual 2008 Mariners

 

STARTING LINEUP POS OWAR OWS STARTING LINEUP POS AWAR AWS
Raul Ibanez LF 1.77 19.64 Raul Ibanez LF 1.77 19.64
Ichiro Suzuki CF/RF 3.36 19.48 Jeremy Reed CF -0.18 4.19
Shin-Soo Choo RF 2.86 14.97 Ichiro Suzuki RF 3.36 19.48
Ken Griffey, Jr. DH/RF 0 13.1 Jose Vidro DH -1.34 1.53
Bryan LaHair 1B -0.42 1.66 Richie Sexson 1B 0.06 4.43
Jose Lopez 2B 2.73 18.55 Jose Lopez 2B 2.73 18.55
Asdrubal Cabrera SS/2B 1.85 11.92 Yuniesky Betancourt SS 0.2 8.69
Alex Rodriguez 3B 4.99 27.21 Adrian Beltre 3B 2.45 16.09
Jason Varitek C 0.7 8.74 Kenji Johjima C -0.01 6.1
BENCH POS AWAR AWS BENCH POS AWAR AWS
David Ortiz DH 1.37 12.01 Willie Bloomquist CF 0.15 3.92
Ramon Vazquez 3B 1.05 9.63 Miguel Cairo 1B -0.64 3.17
Adam Jones CF 1 9.12 Jeff Clement C -0.36 2.88
Yuniesky Betancourt SS 0.2 8.69 Jamie Burke C -0.16 1.89
Greg Dobbs 3B 0.7 7.22 Bryan LaHair 1B -0.42 1.66
Kenji Johjima C -0.01 6.1 Luis Valbuena 2B 0.15 1.19
Omar Vizquel SS -0.22 3.94 Wladimir Balentien RF -1.18 1.09
Willie Bloomquist CF 0.15 3.92 Greg Norton DH 0.21 0.99
Jeff Clement C -0.36 2.88 Brad Wilkerson RF -0.13 0.6
Luis Valbuena 2B 0.15 1.19 Rob Johnson C -0.3 0.35
Wladimir Balentien RF -1.18 1.09 Matt Tuiasosopo 3B -0.28 0.32
Chris Snelling 0.16 0.58 Mike Morse RF 0.03 0.28
Rob Johnson C -0.3 0.35 Tug Hulett DH -0.2 0.16
T. J. Bohn LF 0.05 0.34 Charlton Jimerson LF -0.03 0
Matt Tuiasosopo 3B -0.28 0.32
Jose L. Cruz LF -0.34 0.17

Derek Lowe and Gil Meche compiled identical records (14-11) while starting 34 games apiece. “King” Felix Hernandez contributed nine victories with an ERA of 3.45 in his third full season in the Major Leagues. Brian Fuentes accrued 30 saves while fashioning an ERA of 2.73 along with a 1.101 WHIP. “T-Rex” whiffed 82 batsmen in 62.2 innings pitched.

  Original 2008 Mariners                        Actual 2008 Mariners 

ROTATION POS OWAR OWS ROTATION POS AWAR AWS
Derek Lowe SP 4.16 15.69 Felix Hernandez SP 3.99 13.45
Gil Meche SP 3.7 13.81 Ryan Rowland-Smith SP 2.1 8.39
Felix Hernandez SP 3.99 13.45 Erik Bedard SP 1.24 5.4
Ryan Rowland-Smith SP 2.1 8.39 Jarrod Washburn SP 0.7 5.11
Joel Pineiro SP -0.39 3.75 R. A. Dickey SP 0.2 3.28
BULLPEN POS OWAR OWS BULLPEN POS OWAR OWS
Brian Fuentes RP 1.88 11.8 Brandon Morrow SW 1.09 7.19
Matt Thornton RP 1.95 9.41 Roy Corcoran RP 0.71 6.7
Ryan Franklin RP 0.52 7.47 J. J. Putz RP 0.4 5.24
Brandon Morrow SW 1.09 7.19 Sean Green RP -0.56 3.59
George Sherrill RP 0.03 6.43 Arthur Rhodes RP 0.48 3.03
Aquilino Lopez RP 0.93 6.13 Cesar Jimenez RP 0.66 2.28
Damaso Marte RP 0.52 6.02 Randy Messenger RP 0.19 0.84
J. J. Putz RP 0.4 5.24 Mark Lowe RP -1.11 0.68
Cha-Seung Baek SP 0.56 3.67 Cha-Seung Baek SW -0.11 0.56
Mike Hampton SP 0.34 2.32 Jake Woods RP -0.3 0.05
Cesar Jimenez RP 0.66 2.28 Miguel Batista SP -1.89 0
Ron Villone RP -0.13 1.94 Ryan Feierabend SP -0.88 0
Rafael Soriano RP 0.28 1.78 Eric O’Flaherty RP -1.07 0
Shawn Estes SP 0.03 0.88 Carlos Silva SP -1.91 0
Mark Lowe RP -1.11 0.68 Justin Thomas RP -0.07 0
Scott Patterson RP 0.22 0.43 Jared Wells RP -0.31 0
Kameron Mickolio RP -0.09 0.08
Ryan Feierabend SP -0.88 0
Eric O’Flaherty RP -1.07 0
Justin Thomas RP -0.07 0

 

Notable Transactions

Alex Rodriguez 

October 30, 2000: Granted Free Agency.

January 26, 2001: Signed as a Free Agent with the Texas Rangers.

February 16, 2004: Traded by the Texas Rangers with cash to the New York Yankees for a player to be named later and Alfonso Soriano. The New York Yankees sent Joaquin Arias (April 23, 2004) to the Texas Rangers to complete the trade.

October 29, 2007: Granted Free Agency.

December 13, 2007: Signed as a Free Agent with the New York Yankees. 

Derek Lowe

July 31, 1997: Traded by the Seattle Mariners with Jason Varitek to the Boston Red Sox for Heathcliff Slocumb.

November 1, 2004: Granted Free Agency.

January 11, 2005: Signed as a Free Agent with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Shin-Soo Choo

July 26, 2006: Traded by the Seattle Mariners with a player to be named later to the Cleveland Indians for Ben Broussard and cash. The Seattle Mariners sent Shawn Nottingham (minors) (August 24, 2006) to the Cleveland Indians to complete the trade. 

Gil Meche

October 31, 2006: Granted Free Agency.

December 13, 2006: Signed as a Free Agent with the Kansas City Royals.

Ken Griffey Jr. 

February 10, 2000: Traded by the Seattle Mariners to the Cincinnati Reds for Jake Meyer (minors), Mike Cameron, Antonio Perez and Brett Tomko. 

David Ortiz 

September 13, 1996: the Seattle Mariners sent David Ortiz to the Minnesota Twins to complete an earlier deal made on August 29, 1996. August 29, 1996: The Seattle Mariners sent a player to be named later to the Minnesota Twins for Dave Hollins.

December 16, 2002: Released by the Minnesota Twins.

January 22, 2003: Signed as a Free Agent with the Boston Red Sox.

Honorable Mention

The 1999 Seattle Mariners 

OWAR: 46.4     OWS: 296     OPW%: .549     (89-73)

AWAR: 33.8      AWS: 237     APW%: .488     (79-83)

WARdiff: 12.6                        WSdiff: 59  

The “Original” 1999 Mariners secured the American League Western Division title by six games over the Rangers. The “Actuals” placed third, sixteen games behind Texas. Ken Griffey Jr. (.285/48/134) paced the circuit in home runs, tallied 123 runs and collected his tenth Gold Glove Award. Edgar Martinez (.337/24/86) topped the League with a .447 OBP. Alex Rodriguez (.285/42/111) swiped 21 bags and scored 110 runs. Slick-fielding shortstop Omar Vizquel posted career-highs in batting average (.333), runs scored (112) and base hits (191) while stealing successfully on 42 of 51 attempts. Tino Martinez clubbed 28 four-baggers and plated 105 baserunners. Bret Boone tagged 38 doubles and surpassed the century mark in runs. Jason Varitek drilled 39 two-base knocks and swatted 20 big-flies during his first full campaign.

Mike Hampton (22-4, 2.90) placed runner-up in the Cy Young Award balloting. Derek Lowe notched 15 saves in 74 relief appearances. Dave Burba contributed a 15-9 record and set personal-bests with 34 starts and 220 innings pitched.

On Deck

What Might Have Been – The “Original” 1993 Angels

References and Resources

Baseball America – Executive Database

Baseball-Reference

James, Bill. The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract. New York, NY.: The Free Press, 2001. Print.

James, Bill, with Jim Henzler. Win Shares. Morton Grove, Ill.: STATS, 2002. Print.

Retrosheet – Transactions Database

The information used here was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Interested parties may contact Retrosheet at “www.retrosheet.org”.

Seamheads – Baseball Gauge

Sean Lahman Baseball Archive


Hardball Retrospective – What Might Have Been – The “Original” 1985 Expos

In “Hardball Retrospective: Evaluating Scouting and Development Outcomes for the Modern-Era Franchises”, I placed every ballplayer in the modern era (from 1901-present) on their original team. I calculated revised standings for every season based entirely on the performance of each team’s “original” players. I discuss every team’s “original” players and seasons at length along with organizational performance with respect to the Amateur Draft (or First-Year Player Draft), amateur free agent signings and other methods of player acquisition.  Season standings, WAR and Win Shares totals for the “original” teams are compared against the “actual” team results to assess each franchise’s scouting, development and general management skills.

Expanding on my research for the book, the following series of articles will reveal the teams with the biggest single-season difference in the WAR and Win Shares for the “Original” vs. “Actual” rosters for every Major League organization. “Hardball Retrospective” is available in digital format on Amazon, Barnes and Noble, GooglePlay, iTunes and KoboBooks. The paperback edition is available on Amazon, Barnes and Noble and CreateSpace. Supplemental Statistics, Charts and Graphs along with a discussion forum are offered at TuataraSoftware.com.

Don Daglow (Intellivision World Series Major League Baseball, Earl Weaver Baseball, Tony La Russa Baseball) contributed the foreword for Hardball Retrospective. The foreword and preview of my book are accessible here.

Terminology

OWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “original” teams

OWS – Win Shares for players on “original” teams

OPW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “original” teams

AWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “actual” teams

AWS – Win Shares for players on “actual” teams

APW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “actual” teams

Assessment

The 1985 Montreal Expos 

OWAR: 55.8     OWS: 320     OPW%: .556     (90-72)

AWAR: 37.5      AWS: 252     APW%: .522     (84-77)

WARdiff: 18.3                        WSdiff: 68  

The “Original” 1985 Expos claimed the National League Eastern division title with a 90-victory campaign, outpacing the Mets by five games. Tim “Rock” Raines swiped 70 bases in 79 attempts, registered 115 runs, batted .320 and set a career-high with 13 triples. Gary “Kid” Carter (.281/32/100) established personal-bests in home runs and placed sixth in the NL MVP balloting. Tim Wallach clubbed 36 doubles and merited the first of three Gold Glove Awards at the hot corner. Andre “The Hawk” Dawson swatted 23 big-flies and knocked in 91 baserunners. Vance Law ripped 30 two-base hits for the “Actuals”.

Gary Carter (catcher) and Tim Raines (left field) ranked eight at their respective positions in the “The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract” top 100 player rankings. “Original” Expos teammates chronicled in the “NBJHBA” top 100 ratings include Andre Dawson (19th-RF), Tim Wallach (27th-3B), Andres Galarraga (42nd-1B), Larry Parrish (53rd-3B) and Tony Phillips (66th-RF). “Actuals” first baseman Dan Driessen ranked seventy-eighth while third-sacker Hubie Brooks placed eighty-ninth.

  Original 1985 Expos                                  Actual 1985 Expos

STARTING LINEUP POS OWAR OWS STARTING LINEUP POS AWAR AWS
Tim Raines LF 6.31 35.45 Tim Raines LF 6.31 35.45
Andre Dawson CF/RF 1.61 16.14 Mitch Webster CF 1.55 9.53
Larry Parrish RF -0.95 5.78 Andre Dawson RF 1.61 16.14
Terry Francona 1B 0.1 6.06 Dan Driessen 1B -0.36 7.83
Tony Bernazard 2B 2.86 16.58 Vance Law 2B 3.63 24.03
Hubie Brooks SS 1.04 15.12
Tim Wallach 3B 5.06 23.24 Tim Wallach 3B 5.06 23.24
Gary Carter C 5.05 33.5 Mike R. Fitzgerald C -0.05 3.74
BENCH POS OWAR OWS BENCH POS AWAR AWS
Gary Roenicke LF 0.82 7.85 Herm Winningham CF 0.05 8.24
Tony Phillips 3B 1.23 6.59 Terry Francona 1B 0.1 6.06
Bryan Little 2B 1.26 6.56 U. L. Washington 2B 0.17 4.91
Mike Stenhouse DH -0.23 2.97 Sal Butera C -0.11 1.71
Al Newman 2B -0.11 0.53 Jim Wohlford RF -0.4 1.18
Andres Galarraga 1B -0.57 0.37 Fred Manrique 2B 0.23 1.17
Razor Shines 1B -0.59 0.19 Scot Thompson 1B 0.02 0.62
Ellis Valentine RF -0.22 0.06 Al Newman 2B -0.11 0.53
Roy Johnson RF -0.07 0 Miguel Dilone CF -0.57 0.51
Mike O’Berry C 0.04 0.41
Andres Galarraga 1B -0.57 0.37
Skeeter Barnes 3B -0.31 0.29
Steve Nicosia C -0.45 0.28
Razor Shines 1B -0.59 0.19
Doug Frobel RF -0.15 0.11
Doug Flynn 2B -0.06 0.04
Roy Johnson RF -0.07 0
Ned Yost C -0.14 0

Bob James locked down the late innings for Montreal, saving 32 contests with a 2.13 ERA and a 1.027 WHIP in 69 appearances. Shane Rawley fashioned a 13-8 record with a 3.31 ERA at the top of the rotation. Fellow portsider Joe Hesketh posted a 2.49 ERA to complement a 10-5 mark during his rookie campaign. Bryn Smith (18-5, 2.91) paced the “Actuals” in wins and WHIP (1.052). Tim Burke (9-4, 2.39) and Jeff Reardon (3.18, 41 SV) anchored the “Actuals” bullpen.

  Original 1985 Expos                                Actual 1985 Expos 

ROTATION POS OWAR OWS ROTATION POS AWAR AWS
Shane Rawley SP 3.23 12.82 Bryn Smith SP 2.93 15.35
Joe Hesketh SP 2.61 11.66 Joe Hesketh SP 2.61 11.66
Bill Gullickson SP 1.27 9.48 Bill Gullickson SP 1.27 9.48
Scott Sanderson SP 2.16 8.88 David Palmer SP 0.64 5.75
David Palmer SP 0.64 5.75 Floyd Youmans SP 1.18 5.43
BULLPEN POS OWAR OWS BULLPEN POS AWAR AWS
Bob James RP 3.39 21.93 Tim Burke RP 2.64 13.11
Randy St. Claire RP -0.07 3.2 Jeff Reardon RP 1.14 12.22
Tom Gorman RP -0.72 0.51 Gary Lucas RP 0.1 4.47
Rick Grapenthin RP -0.73 0.22 Bert Roberge RP 0.27 3.9
Jack O’Connor RP -0.36 0.01 Randy St. Claire RP -0.07 3.2
Dan Schatzeder SP 0.07 3.6 Dan Schatzeder SP 0.07 3.6
John Dopson SP -0.95 0 Mickey Mahler SP 0.23 1.9
Dale Murray RP -0.34 0 Rick Grapenthin RP -0.73 0.22
Steve Rogers SP -0.65 0 Jack O’Connor RP -0.36 0.01
John Dopson SP -0.95 0
Ed Glynn RP -0.41 0
Bill Laskey SP -1.81 0
Steve Rogers SP -0.65 0

 Notable Transactions

Gary Carter 

December 10, 1984: Traded by the Montreal Expos to the New York Mets for Hubie Brooks, Mike Fitzgerald, Herm Winningham and Floyd Youmans. 

Bob James 

June 10, 1982: Sent to the Detroit Tigers by the Montreal Expos as part of a conditional deal.

May 4, 1983: Returned by the Detroit Tigers to the Montreal Expos as part of a conditional deal.

December 7, 1984: Traded by the Montreal Expos to the Chicago White Sox for Vance Law.

Tony Bernazard

December 12, 1980: Traded by the Montreal Expos to the Chicago White Sox for Rich Wortham.

June 15, 1983: Traded by the Chicago White Sox to the Seattle Mariners for Julio Cruz.

December 7, 1983: Traded by the Seattle Mariners to the Cleveland Indians for Jack Perconte and Gorman Thomas.

Shane Rawley

May 27, 1977: the Montreal Expos sent Shane Rawley and Angel Torres to the Cincinnati Reds to complete an earlier deal made on May 21, 1977. May 21, 1977: The Montreal Expos sent players to be named later to the Cincinnati Reds for Santo Alcala.

December 9, 1977: Traded by the Cincinnati Reds to the Seattle Mariners for Dave Collins.

April 1, 1982: Traded by the Seattle Mariners to the New York Yankees for a player to be named later, Bill Caudill and Gene Nelson. The New York Yankees sent Bobby Brown (April 6, 1982) to the Seattle Mariners to complete the trade.

June 30, 1984: Traded by the New York Yankees to the Philadelphia Phillies for Marty Bystrom and Keith Hughes.

 

Honorable Mention

 

The 2008 Washington Nationals 

OWAR: 37.2     OWS: 243     OPW%: .500     (81-81)

AWAR: 18.3      AWS: 177     APW%: .366     (59-102)

WARdiff: 18.9                        WSdiff: 64  

The “Original” 2008 Nationals played .500 ball and finished fourth in the division. The “Actuals” dreadful results placed them 22 games off the “Originals” pace. Grady Sizemore (.268/33/90) produced a 30-30 season, successfully stealing 38 bags in 43 attempts while eclipsing the century mark in runs scored for the fourth straight season. Left fielder Jason Bay (.286/31/101) tallied 111 runs and drilled 35 doubles. Vladimir Guerrero (.303/27/91) topped the .300 mark for the 12th consecutive year and supplied 31 two-base knocks. Milton Bradley (.321/22/77) clubbed 32 doubles, paced the circuit with a .436 OBP and merited his lone All-Star appearance. Orlando Cabrera contributed 33 two-baggers while double-play partner Brandon Phillips blasted 21 dingers and pilfered 23 bases. Cliff P. Lee (22-3, 2.54) achieved Cy Young honors and led the League in ERA. Armando Galarraga (13-7, 3.73) finished fourth in the Rookie of the Year balloting.

On Deck

What Might Have Been – The “Original” 2008 Mariners

References and Resources

Baseball America – Executive Database

Baseball-Reference

James, Bill. The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract. New York, NY.: The Free Press, 2001. Print.

James, Bill, with Jim Henzler. Win Shares. Morton Grove, Ill.: STATS, 2002. Print.

Retrosheet – Transactions Database

The information used here was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Interested parties may contact Retrosheet at “www.retrosheet.org”.

Seamheads – Baseball Gauge

Sean Lahman Baseball Archive

 


Hardball Retrospective – What Might Have Been – The “Original” 2013 Marlins

In “Hardball Retrospective: Evaluating Scouting and Development Outcomes for the Modern-Era Franchises”, I placed every ballplayer in the modern era (from 1901-present) on their original team. I calculated revised standings for every season based entirely on the performance of each team’s “original” players. I discuss every team’s “original” players and seasons at length along with organizational performance with respect to the Amateur Draft (or First-Year Player Draft), amateur free agent signings and other methods of player acquisition.  Season standings, WAR and Win Shares totals for the “original” teams are compared against the “actual” team results to assess each franchise’s scouting, development and general management skills.

Expanding on my research for the book, the following series of articles will reveal the teams with the biggest single-season difference in the WAR and Win Shares for the “Original” vs. “Actual” rosters for every Major League organization. “Hardball Retrospective” is available in digital format on Amazon, Barnes and Noble, GooglePlay, iTunes and KoboBooks. The paperback edition is available on Amazon, Barnes and Noble and CreateSpace. Supplemental Statistics, Charts and Graphs along with a discussion forum are offered at TuataraSoftware.com.

Don Daglow (Intellivision World Series Major League Baseball, Earl Weaver Baseball, Tony LaRussa Baseball) contributed the foreword for Hardball Retrospective. The foreword and preview of my book are accessible here.

Terminology

OWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “original” teams

OWS – Win Shares for players on “original” teams

OPW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “original” teams

AWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “actual” teams

AWS – Win Shares for players on “actual” teams

APW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “actual” teams

Assessment

The 2013 Miami Marlins 

OWAR: 33.0     OWS: 255     OPW%: .468     (76-86)

AWAR: 18.5      AWS: 185     APW%: .383     (62-100)

WARdiff: 14.5                        WSdiff: 70  

 

The “Original” 2013 Marlins tied with the Phillies for last place, yet the ball club managed to school the “Actuals” by a 14-game margin. Miguel Cabrera seized MVP honors for the second consecutive season and notched his third straight batting title. “Miggy” produced a .348 BA, dialed long-distance 44 times and knocked in 137 baserunners. Adrian Gonzalez swatted 22 big-flies and reached the century mark in RBI for the sixth time in his career. Matt Dominguez drilled 25 two-base hits and blasted 21 round-trippers. Giancarlo Stanton supplied 26 doubles and 24 four-baggers as a member of the “Originals” and “Actuals”.

  Original 2013 Marlins                              Actual 2013 Marlins

STARTING LINEUP POS OWAR OWS STARTING LINEUP POS OWAR OWS
Josh Willingham LF 0.23 9 Christian Yelich LF 1.34 8.34
Marcell Ozuna CF/RF 0.16 6.68 Justin Ruggiano CF 1.11 9.23
Giancarlo Stanton RF 3.14 16.66 Giancarlo Stanton RF 3.14 16.66
Adrian Gonzalez 1B 4.12 21.17 Logan Morrison 1B 0.32 6.16
Josh Wilson 2B -0.11 0.54 Donovan Solano 2B 0.44 6.95
Robert Andino SS -0.26 0.82 Adeiny Hechavarria SS -2.33 4.28
Miguel Cabrera 3B 6.8 33.13 Ed Lucas 3B 0.42 7.2
Brett Hayes C 0.17 1.01 Jeff Mathis C -0.17 3.22
BENCH POS OWAR OWS BENCH POS OWAR OWS
Matt Dominguez 3B 0.84 11.34 Marcell Ozuna RF 0.16 6.68
Gaby Sanchez 1B 1.91 10.36 Placido Polanco 3B -0.35 5.41
Christian Yelich LF 1.34 8.34 Chris Coghlan LF 0.32 5.35
Logan Morrison 1B 0.32 6.16 Derek Dietrich 2B 0.63 5.29
Chris Coghlan LF 0.32 5.35 Juan Pierre LF -0.27 4.38
Jim Adduci LF 0.03 0.59 Rob Brantly C -0.98 2.61
Alex Gonzalez 1B -0.94 0.32 Greg Dobbs 1B -0.6 2.5
Mark Kotsay LF -1 0.17 Jake Marisnick CF 0.13 1.54
Kyle Skipworth C -0.05 0.01 Miguel Olivo C 0.17 1.17
Scott Cousins LF -0.06 0 Nick Green SS -0.01 1.05
Chris Valaika 2B -0.13 0.58
Joe Mahoney 1B -0.04 0.54
Koyie Hill C -0.55 0.54
Austin Kearns RF -0.13 0.25
Matt Diaz LF -0.14 0.15
Casey Kotchman 1B -0.25 0.06
Kyle Skipworth C -0.05 0.01
Jordan Brown DH -0.06 0
Gil Velazquez 3B -0.01 0

Jose D. Fernandez (12-6, 2.19) merited 2013 NL Rookie of the Year honors and an All-Star invitation while placing third in the NL Cy Young balloting. Portsider Jason Vargas contributed 9 victories with a 4.02 ERA to the “Originals” rotation and Henderson “The Entertainer” Alvarez fashioned a 3.59 ERA and 1.140 WHIP for the “Actuals” in 17 starts. The Marlins’ bullpen featured Steve Cishek (2.33, 34 SV). A.J. Ramos whiffed 86 batsmen in 68 relief appearances.

  Original 2013 Marlins                             Actual 2013 Marlins 

ROTATION POS OWAR OWS ROTATION POS OWAR OWS
Jose D. Fernandez SP 5.57 16.22 Jose D. Fernandez SP 5.57 16.22
Jason Vargas SP 2 7.04 Henderson Alvarez SP 1.89 6.19
Tom Koehler SP 0.46 3.96 Nathan Eovaldi SP 1.39 5.63
Brad Hand SP 0.4 1.43 Ricky Nolasco SP 1.13 4.92
Alex Sanabia SP -0.33 0.6 Jacob Turner SP 0.87 4.56
BULLPEN POS OWAR OWS BULLPEN POS OWAR OWS
Steve Cishek RP 1.62 12.99 Steve Cishek RP 1.62 12.99
A. J. Ramos RP 0.34 5.23 Mike Dunn RP 1.06 6.64
Ronald Belisario RP -0.9 2.61 Chad Qualls RP 1.22 6.22
Sandy Rosario RP 0.24 2.53 A. J. Ramos RP 0.34 5.23
Dan Jennings RP 0.08 1.95 Ryan Webb RP 0.6 5.02
Ross Wolf SW 0.14 1.92 Tom Koehler SP 0.46 3.96
Arquimedes Caminero RP 0.16 0.95 Kevin Slowey SP 0.46 3.15
Logan Kensing RP 0.02 0.1 Dan Jennings RP 0.08 1.95
Josh Johnson SP -1.25 0.04 Brad Hand SP 0.4 1.43
Josh Beckett SP -0.81 0 Arquimedes Caminero RP 0.16 0.95
Chris Hatcher RP -0.93 0 Alex Sanabia SP -0.33 0.6
Chris Leroux RP -0.17 0 Brian Flynn SP -0.59 0.14
Edgar Olmos RP -0.68 0 Steve Ames RP -0.02 0.02
Chris Resop RP -0.6 0 Duane Below RP -0.19 0
Chris Volstad RP -0.49 0 Sam Dyson SP -0.59 0
Chris Hatcher RP -0.93 0
Wade LeBlanc SP -0.41 0
John Maine RP -0.66 0
Edgar Olmos RP -0.68 0
Zach Phillips RP -0.03 0
Jon Rauch RP -0.71 0

 Notable Transactions

Miguel Cabrera 

December 4, 2007: Traded by the Florida Marlins with Dontrelle Willis to the Detroit Tigers for Dallas Trahern (minors), Burke Badenhop, Frankie De La Cruz, Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller and Mike Rabelo. 

Adrian Gonzalez 

July 11, 2003: Traded by the Florida Marlins with Will Smith (minors) and Ryan Snare to the Texas Rangers for Ugueth Urbina.

January 6, 2006: Traded by the Texas Rangers with Terrmel Sledge and Chris Young to the San Diego Padres for Billy Killian (minors), Adam Eaton and Akinori Otsuka.

December 6, 2010: Traded by the San Diego Padres to the Boston Red Sox for a player to be named later, Reymond Fuentes, Casey Kelly and Anthony Rizzo. The Boston Red Sox sent Eric Patterson (December 16, 2010) to the San Diego Padres to complete the trade.

August 25, 2012: Traded by the Boston Red Sox with Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford, Nick Punto and cash to the Los Angeles Dodgers for players to be named later, Ivan De Jesus, James Loney and Allen Webster. The Los Angeles Dodgers sent Rubby De La Rosa (October 4, 2012) and Jerry Sands (October 4, 2012) to the Boston Red Sox to complete the trade. 

Matt Dominguez

July 4, 2012: Traded by the Miami Marlins with Rob Rasmussen to the Houston Astros for Carlos Lee.

Gaby Sanchez

July 31, 2012: Traded by the Miami Marlins with Kyle Kaminska (minors) to the Pittsburgh Pirates for Gorkys Hernandez.

On Deck

What Might Have Been – The “Original” 1985 Expos

References and Resources

Baseball America – Executive Database

Baseball-Reference

James, Bill. The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract. New York, NY.: The Free Press, 2001. Print.

James, Bill, with Jim Henzler. Win Shares. Morton Grove, Ill.: STATS, 2002. Print.

Retrosheet – Transactions Database

The information used here was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Interested parties may contact Retrosheet at “www.retrosheet.org”.

Seamheads – Baseball Gauge

Sean Lahman Baseball Archive


Hardball Retrospective – What Might Have Been – The “Original” 1979 Mets

In “Hardball Retrospective: Evaluating Scouting and Development Outcomes for the Modern-Era Franchises”, I placed every ballplayer in the modern era (from 1901-present) on their original team. I calculated revised standings for every season based entirely on the performance of each team’s “original” players. I discuss every team’s “original” players and seasons at length along with organizational performance with respect to the Amateur Draft (or First-Year Player Draft), amateur free agent signings and other methods of player acquisition.  Season standings, WAR and Win Shares totals for the “original” teams are compared against the “actual” team results to assess each franchise’s scouting, development and general management skills.

Expanding on my research for the book, the following series of articles will reveal the teams with the biggest single-season difference in the WAR and Win Shares for the “Original” vs. “Actual” rosters for every Major League organization. “Hardball Retrospective” is available in digital format on Amazon, Barnes and Noble, GooglePlay, iTunes and KoboBooks. The paperback edition is available on Amazon, Barnes and Noble and CreateSpace. Supplemental Statistics, Charts and Graphs along with a discussion forum are offered at TuataraSoftware.com.

Don Daglow (Intellivision World Series Major League Baseball, Earl Weaver Baseball, Tony LaRussa Baseball) contributed the foreword for Hardball Retrospective. The foreword and preview of my book are accessible here.

Terminology

OWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “original” teams

OWS – Win Shares for players on “original” teams

OPW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “original” teams

AWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “actual” teams

AWS – Win Shares for players on “actual” teams

APW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “actual” teams

 

Assessment

The 1979 New York Mets 

OWAR: 50.7     OWS: 262     OPW%: .479     (78-84)

AWAR: 24.8      AWS: 188     APW%: .389     (63-99)

WARdiff: 25.9                        WSdiff: 74  

The “Original” 1979 Mets ended the season in the cellar, yet the club outpaced the “Actuals” by fifteen victories! Ken Singleton earned runner-up status in the MVP balloting on the strength of a .295 BA with 35 circuit clouts and 111 ribbies. Lee “Maz” Mazzilli (.303/15/79) nabbed 34 bags and merited his lone All-Star appearance. Tim Foli set personal-bests in batting average (.288), base hits, runs and RBI. John “The Hammer” Milner contributed a .276 BA with 16 jacks while splitting time between left field and first base. “Actuals” right fielder Joel Youngblood posted a .275 BA and raked 37 doubles. Richie “The Gravedigger” Hebner added 25 two-base knocks and drove in 79 baserunners.

Tom Seaver and Nolan Ryan rated sixth and twenty-fourth, respectively, among pitchers in the “The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract” top 100 player rankings. “Original” Mets teammates registered in the “NBJHBA” top 100 ratings include Ken Singleton (18th-RF) Paul Blair (66th-CF) and Bud Harrelson (88th-SS). “Actuals” third baseman Richie Hebner ranked fifty-sixth while center fielder Jose Cardenal placed seventh-sixth.

  Original 1979 Mets                                  Actual 1979 Mets

STARTING LINEUP POS OWAR OWS STARTING LINEUP POS AWAR AWS
John Milner LF 1.8 13.03 Steve Henderson LF 2.18 11.79
Lee Mazzilli CF 3.56 24.14 Lee Mazzilli CF 3.56 24.14
Ken Singleton RF 4.49 31.68 Joel Youngblood RF 3.75 17.31
Mike Jorgensen 1B -0.09 2.56 Willie Montanez 1B -1.71 2.45
Bud Harrelson 2B 0.55 3.1 Doug Flynn 2B -1.92 6.85
Tim Foli SS 1.88 17.19 Frank Taveras SS -0.83 11.83
Ted Martinez 3B -0.34 1.38 Richie Hebner 3B 2.32 14.43
Alex Trevino C 0.36 5.04 John Stearns C 1.28 10.89
BENCH POS OWAR OWS BENCH POS AWAR AWS
Joe Nolan C -0.02 3.57 Alex Trevino C 0.36 5.04
Jerry Morales RF -1.96 3.43 Elliott Maddox RF 0.67 4.88
Duffy Dyer C 0.11 3.21 Dan Norman RF -0.1 2.22
Benny Ayala LF 0.3 3.01 Jose Cardenal RF 0.36 1.99
Paul Blair CF -1.12 1.41 Ron Hodges C -0.24 1.14
Ron Hodges C -0.24 1.14 Ed Kranepool 1B -0.58 0.86
Ed Kranepool 1B -0.58 0.86 Kelvin Chapman 2B -0.7 0.67
Kelvin Chapman 2B -0.7 0.67 Gil Flores RF -0.36 0.34
Bruce Boisclair RF -0.88 0.29 Bruce Boisclair RF -0.88 0.29
Ike Hampton 1B 0.03 0.19 Sergio Ferrer 3B -0.1 0.16
Roy Staiger 3B 0.06 0.17 Tim Foli SS -0.08 0.1

Jerry Koosman reached the 20-win plateau for the second time in his career. Tom “The Franchise” Seaver (16-6, 3.14) led the National League with 5 shutouts and finished fourth in the Cy Young Award balloting. Nino Espinosa delivered 14 victories with a 3.65 ERA. Nolan Ryan aka the “Ryan Express” tallied 16 victories and struck out 223 batsmen. Craig Swan augmented the “Originals” and “Actuals” rotation with 14 wins and a 3.29 ERA after securing the National League ERA title during the previous campaign.

  Original 1979 Mets                                  Actual 1979 Mets 

ROTATION POS OWAR OWS ROTATION POS AWAR AWS
Jerry Koosman SP 6.06 22.76 Craig Swan SP 3 15.36
Tom Seaver SP 3.68 16.04 Kevin Kobel SP 1.16 7.87
Craig Swan SP 3 15.36 Pete Falcone SP 0.49 6.15
Nino Espinosa SP 2.15 14.6 Tom Hausman SP 1.69 5.95
Nolan Ryan SP 2.88 13.52 Andy Hassler SP 0.54 4.87
BULLPEN POS OWAR OWS BULLPEN POS AWAR AWS
Neil Allen RP 0.19 6.26 Skip Lockwood RP 1.89 6.86
Tug McGraw RP -1.53 4.62 Neil Allen RP 0.19 6.26
Jeff Reardon RP 0.29 2.33 Ed Glynn RP 0.67 4.5
Roy Lee Jackson RP 0.43 1.77 Jeff Reardon RP 0.29 2.33
Dwight Bernard RP -0.51 0.44 Dale Murray RP -1.34 1.87
Steve Renko SP 2.68 11.18 Pat Zachry SP 0.28 2.94
Jim Bibby SP 2.85 11.06 Juan Berenguer SP 0.35 1.84
Ed Figueroa SP 0.98 5.38 Roy Lee Jackson RP 0.43 1.77
Jon Matlack SP 0.81 4.31 Ray Burris SP 0.13 0.85
Juan Berenguer SP 0.35 1.84 Wayne Twitchell RP -1.31 0.84
John Pacella SP 0.05 0.33 Jesse Orosco RP -0.33 0.57
Kim Seaman RP 0.05 0.29 Dwight Bernard RP -0.51 0.44
Jackson Todd RP -0.64 0.01 John Pacella SP 0.05 0.33
Mike Scott SP -0.83 0 Dock Ellis SP -1.6 0
Mike Scott SP -0.83 0

 Notable Transactions

Ken Singleton 

April 5, 1972: Traded by the New York Mets with Tim Foli and Mike Jorgensen to the Montreal Expos for Rusty Staub.

December 4, 1974: Traded by the Montreal Expos with Mike Torrez to the Baltimore Orioles for Bill Kirkpatrick (minors), Rich Coggins and Dave McNally. 

Jerry Koosman 

December 8, 1978: Traded by the New York Mets to the Minnesota Twins for a player to be named later and Greg Field (minors). The Minnesota Twins sent Jesse Orosco (February 7, 1979) to the New York Mets to complete the trade. 

Tom Seaver

June 15, 1977: Traded by the New York Mets to the Cincinnati Reds for Doug Flynn, Steve Henderson, Dan Norman and Pat Zachry.

Nino Espinosa

March 27, 1979: Traded by the New York Mets to the Philadelphia Phillies for Richie Hebner and Jose Moreno.

Nolan Ryan

December 10, 1971: Traded by the New York Mets with Frank Estrada, Don Rose and Leroy Stanton to the California Angels for Jim Fregosi.

Honorable Mention

The 2012 New York Mets 

OWAR: 27.7     OWS: 262     OPW%: .492     (80-82)

AWAR: 24.1       AWS: 221      APW%: .457    (74-88)

WARdiff: 3.6                        WSdiff: 41

The “Original” 2012 Mets placed third, fourteen games in arrears to the Nationals. David “Captain America” Wright (.306/21/93) raked 41 two-base hits and received his sixth All-Star invite. Angel “Crazy Horse” Pagan topped the circuit with 15 triples and set career-highs with 38 two-baggers and 95 runs scored. Jose B. Reyes swiped 40 bags and rapped 37 doubles while double-play partner Daniel Murphy contributed a .291 BA with 40 two-base knocks. Nelson R. Cruz nailed 45 doubles and jacked 24 round-trippers. First-sacker Ike B. Davis established personal-bests with 32 taters and 90 ribbies. A.J. Burnett paced the starting staff with 16 victories along with a 3.51 ERA and 180 strikeouts.

On Deck

What Might Have Been – The “Original” 2013 Marlins

References and Resources

Baseball America – Executive Database

Baseball-Reference

James, Bill. The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract. New York, NY.: The Free Press, 2001. Print.

James, Bill, with Jim Henzler. Win Shares. Morton Grove, Ill.: STATS, 2002. Print.

Retrosheet – Transactions Database

The information used here was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Interested parties may contact Retrosheet at “www.retrosheet.org”.

Seamheads – Baseball Gauge

Sean Lahman Baseball Archive

 


Hardball Retrospective – What Might Have Been – The “Original” 1921 Tigers

In “Hardball Retrospective: Evaluating Scouting and Development Outcomes for the Modern-Era Franchises”, I placed every ballplayer in the modern era (from 1901-present) on their original team. I calculated revised standings for every season based entirely on the performance of each team’s “original” players. I discuss every team’s “original” players and seasons at length along with organizational performance with respect to the Amateur Draft (or First-Year Player Draft), amateur free agent signings and other methods of player acquisition.  Season standings, WAR and Win Shares totals for the “original” teams are compared against the “actual” team results to assess each franchise’s scouting, development and general management skills.

Expanding on my research for the book, the following series of articles will reveal the teams with the biggest single-season difference in the WAR and Win Shares for the “Original” vs. “Actual” rosters for every Major League organization. “Hardball Retrospective” is available in digital format on Amazon, Barnes and Noble, GooglePlay, iTunes and KoboBooks. The paperback edition is available on Amazon, Barnes and Noble and CreateSpace. Supplemental Statistics, Charts and Graphs along with a discussion forum are offered at TuataraSoftware.com.

Don Daglow (Intellivision World Series Major League Baseball, Earl Weaver Baseball, Tony LaRussa Baseball) contributed the foreword for Hardball Retrospective. The foreword and preview of my book are accessible here.

Terminology

OWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “original” teams

OWS – Win Shares for players on “original” teams

OPW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “original” teams

AWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “actual” teams

AWS – Win Shares for players on “actual” teams

APW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “actual” teams

Assessment

The 1921 Detroit Tigers 

OWAR: 49.3     OWS: 289     OPW%: .553     (85-69)

AWAR: 40.4      AWS: 212     APW%: .464     (71-82)

WARdiff: 8.9                        WSdiff: 77  

The “Original” 1921 Tigers paced the Junior Circuit in OWAR and OWS. Detroit finished third in the American League, ten games in arrears to the Red Sox. Harry “Slug” Heilmann (.394/19/139) collected his first batting title, smashed 43 two-baggers and topped the leader boards with 237 safeties. Ty Cobb (.389/12/101) continued to mash opposition offerings. “The Georgia Peach” tallied 197 base knocks, 124 runs, 37 doubles and 16 triples while recording an OBP of .452 and a .596 SLG. Baby Doll Jacobson (.352/5/90) contributed 211 base hits, 38 doubles and 14 triples to Detroit’s powerful lineup. Ray “Rabbit” Powell (.306/12/74) legged out 18 three-base hits to lead the League and scored 114 runs. Powell and outfield mate Bobby Veach (.338/16/128) established personal-bests in almost every major offensive category. Lu Blue supplied a .308 BA with 103 runs scored and 33 two-baggers in his inaugural campaign while fellow first-sacker Wally Pipp (.296/8/103) drilled 35 doubles.

Ty Cobb placed runner-up to Willie Mays among center fielders in the “The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract” top 100 player rankings. “Original” Tigers teammates registered in the “NBJHBA” top 100 ratings include Harry Heilmann (16th-RF), Bobby Veach (33rd-LF), Carl Mays (38th-P), Donie Bush (51st-SS), Lu Blue (77th-1B), George H. Burns (79th-1B), Wally Pipp (83rd-1B) and Baby Doll Jacobson (85th-CF).

“Actuals” backstop Johnny Bassler rated forty-seventh.

  Original 1921 Tigers                                Actual 1921 Tigers

STARTING LINEUP POS OWAR OWS STARTING LINEUP POS OWAR OWS
Bobby Veach LF 5.23 22.64 Bobby Veach LF 5.23 22.64
Ty Cobb CF 5.74 25.77 Ty Cobb CF 5.74 25.77
Harry Heilmann RF 4.1 28.09 Harry Heilmann RF 4.1 28.09
Lu Blue 1B 1.61 16.87 Lu Blue 1B 1.61 16.87
Joe Sargent 2B 0.04 3.37 Ralph Young 2B -0.3 8.76
Donie Bush SS -2.03 6.82 Ira Flagstead SS 0.4 5.92
Eddie Foster 3B 1.78 13.05 Bob Jones 3B 1.22 12
Frank Gibson C 0.34 4.11 Johnny Bassler C 2.38 12.73
BENCH POS OWAR OWS BENCH POS OWAR OWS
Baby Doll Jacobson CF 3.64 25.11 Donie Bush SS -1.41 5.77
Ray Powell CF 3.17 24.19 Joe Sargent 2B 0.04 3.37
Wally Pipp 1B 1.49 14.75 Chick Shorten CF -0.39 3.06
Bob Jones 3B 1.22 12 Larry Woodall C 0.38 2.48
Charlie Deal 3B 0.66 11.21 Eddie Ainsmith C 0.22 2.38
Fred Nicholson LF 1.52 10.17 Herm Merritt SS 0.32 1.45
George H. Burns 1B 1.5 8.58 Sam Barnes 2B -0.02 0.17
Ira Flagstead SS 0.4 5.92 Clyde Manion C -0.01 0.13
Ossie Vitt 3B -0.37 3.6 Jackie Tavener SS -0.05 0.04
John Peters C -0.21 2.59 George Cunningham RF -0.01 0.01
Larry Woodall C 0.38 2.48 Clarence Huber 3B 0 0.01
Herm Merritt SS 0.32 1.45 Sammy Hale -0.04 0
Frank Walker CF -0.37 0.63
Sam Barnes 2B -0.02 0.17
Clyde Manion C -0.01 0.13
Jackie Tavener SS -0.05 0.04
George Cunningham RF -0.01 0.01
Clarence Huber 3B 0 0.01
Sammy Hale -0.04 0

Carl “Sub” Mays (27-9, 3.05) topped the American League in victories, games (49), saves (7) and innings pitched (336.2). Clarence Mitchell fashioned a 2.89 ERA and notched 11 wins while splitting time among the bullpen and starting rotation. Dutch H. Leonard contributed a 3.75 ERA with an 11-13 record for the “Actuals”.

  Original 1921 Tigers                                Actual 1921 Tigers 

ROTATION POS OWAR OWS ROTATION POS AWAR AWS
Carl Mays SP 7.27 34.42 Dutch H. Leonard SP 3.02 13.14
Clarence Mitchell SP 2.59 16.23 Red Oldham SP 2.13 10.76
Red Oldham SP 2.13 10.76 Hooks Dauss SP 1.3 9.82
Hooks Dauss SP 1.3 9.82 Howard Ehmke SP 0.65 8.14
BULLPEN POS OWAR OWS BULLPEN POS AWAR AWS
Lou North RP 0.41 6.23 Jim Middleton SW -0.73 4.25
Slicker Parks RP -0.18 0.85 Slicker Parks RP -0.18 0.85
Jim Walsh RP 0.04 0.25 Jim Walsh RP 0.04 0.25
George Boehler RP 0.06 0.15 Dan Boone RP 0.01 0.16
Lefty Stewart RP -0.58 0
Bert Cole SP 0.75 5.71 Bert Cole SP 0.75 5.71
Carl Holling SP -0.65 4.81 Carl Holling SP -0.65 4.81
Suds Sutherland SP -0.17 2.87 Suds Sutherland SP -0.17 2.87
Bernie Boland SP -1.58 0 Pol Perritt SP -0.02 0.59
Doc Ayers SP -0.29 0
Lefty Stewart RP -0.58 0

 

Notable Transactions

Carl Mays 

Before 1914 Season: Returned to Providence (International) by the Detroit Tigers after expiration of minor league working agreement.

Before 1914 Season: Obtained by the Boston Red Sox from Providence (International) as part of a minor league working agreement.

July 30, 1919: the Boston Red Sox sent Carl Mays to the New York Yankees to complete an earlier deal made on July 29, 1919. July 29, 1919: The Boston Red Sox sent a player to be named later to the New York Yankees for Bob McGraw, Allen Russell and $40,000. 

Baby Doll Jacobson 

Before 1915 Season: Purchased by the Detroit Tigers from Chattanooga (Southern Association).

August 18, 1915: Traded by the Detroit Tigers with $15,000 to the St. Louis Browns for Bill James. 

Ray Powell 

July 10, 1917: Purchased with Wally Rehg by the Boston Braves from Providence (International).

Clarence Mitchell

October 16, 1917: Selected off waivers by the Brooklyn Robins from the Cincinnati Reds.

Wally Pipp

August, 1912: Purchased by the Detroit Tigers from Kalamazoo (Southern Michigan). (Date given is approximate. Exact date is uncertain.)

February 4, 1915: Purchased with Hugh High by the New York Yankees from the Detroit Tigers.

Honorable Mention

The 2003 Detroit Tigers 

OWAR: 14.8     OWS: 195     OPW%: .400     (65-97)

AWAR: 7.1       AWS: 129      APW%: .265    (43-119)

WARdiff: 7.7                        WSdiff: 66

 

The “Original” 2003 Tigers finished last in the AL Central, 17 games behind the White Sox. However the “Actuals” finished 47 games off the pace with a ghastly 43-119 record.

Juan Encarnacion (.270/19/94) established career-highs in RBI and doubles (37). Frank Catalanotto contributed a .299 BA with 34 two-base knocks. Robert Fick registered a personal-best with 80 ribbies and Dave R. Roberts pilfered 40 bags. The bullpen featured John Smoltz (1.12, 45 SV) and Francisco Cordero (2.94, 15 SV).

On Deck

What Might Have Been – The “Original” 1979 Mets

References and Resources

Baseball America – Executive Database

Baseball-Reference

James, Bill. The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract. New York, NY.: The Free Press, 2001. Print.

James, Bill, with Jim Henzler. Win Shares. Morton Grove, Ill.: STATS, 2002. Print.

Retrosheet – Transactions Database

The information used here was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Interested parties may contact Retrosheet at “www.retrosheet.org”.

Seamheads – Baseball Gauge

Sean Lahman Baseball Archive


Hardball Retrospective – What Might Have Been – The “Original” 1902 Orphans

In “Hardball Retrospective: Evaluating Scouting and Development Outcomes for the Modern-Era Franchises”, I placed every ballplayer in the modern era (from 1901-present) on their original team. I calculated revised standings for every season based entirely on the performance of each team’s “original” players. I discuss every team’s “original” players and seasons at length along with organizational performance with respect to the Amateur Draft (or First-Year Player Draft), amateur free agent signings and other methods of player acquisition.  Season standings, WAR and Win Shares totals for the “original” teams are compared against the “actual” team results to assess each franchise’s scouting, development and general management skills.

Expanding on my research for the book, the following series of articles will reveal the teams with the biggest single-season difference in the WAR and Win Shares for the “Original” vs. “Actual” rosters for every Major League organization. “Hardball Retrospective” is available in digital format on Amazon, Barnes and Noble, GooglePlay, iTunes and KoboBooks. The paperback edition is available on Amazon, Barnes and Noble and CreateSpace. Supplemental Statistics, Charts and Graphs along with a discussion forum are offered at TuataraSoftware.com.

Don Daglow (Intellivision World Series Major League Baseball, Earl Weaver Baseball, Tony LaRussa Baseball) contributed the foreword for Hardball Retrospective. The foreword and preview of my book are accessible here.

Terminology

OWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “original” teams

OWS – Win Shares for players on “original” teams

OPW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “original” teams

AWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “actual” teams

AWS – Win Shares for players on “actual” teams

APW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “actual” teams

Assessment

The 1902 Chicago Orphans 

OWAR: 37.4     OWS: 280     OPW%: .527     (74-66)

AWAR: 29.9      AWS: 203     APW%: .496     (68-69)

WARdiff: 7.5                        WSdiff: 77  

The 1902 “Original” Orphans finished in third place, ten games behind the Reds. Bill Bradley (.340/11/77) thrived against opposing hurlers, notching career-bests in base hits (187), runs scored (104), doubles (39), home runs and batting average. “Bad” Bill Dahlen drilled 25 two-baggers and swiped 20 bags. Danny Green delivered a .302 BA and pilfered 35 bases. Jimmy “Pony” Ryan slashed 32 two-base knocks and produced a .320 BA. Johnny “Noisy” Kling succeeded on 25 stolen base attempts. Jimmy “Rabbit” Slagle executed 41 thefts and supplied a .315 BA for the “Actual” Orphans.

Bill Dahlen rated twenty-first among shortstops in the “The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract” top 100 player rankings. “Original” Orphans teammates registered in the “NBJHBA” top 100 rankings include Frank Chance (25th-1B), Johnny Evers (25th-2B), Jimmy Ryan (26th-CF), Joe Tinker (33rd-SS), Bill Bradley (46th-3B), Johnny Kling (48th-C) and Tom Daly (55th-2B). “Actuals” second-sacker Bobby Lowe placed fifty-sixth.

  Original 1902 Orphans                          Actual 1902 Orphans

STARTING LINEUP POS OWAR OWS STARTING LINEUP POS OWAR OWS
Jimmy Ryan LF/CF 3.26 18.59 Jimmy Slagle LF 5.11 22.25
Davy Jones CF 2.67 13.4 Davy Jones CF 2.67 13.4
Danny Green RF 3.52 20.73 John Dobbs RF/CF 0.8 8.31
Frank Chance 1B 2.66 12.37 Frank Chance 1B 2.66 12.37
Tom Daly 2B -1.87 10.46 Bobby Lowe 2B 0.79 10.24
Bill Dahlen SS 4.65 21.9 Joe Tinker SS 3.31 16.58
Bill Bradley 3B 5.38 25.61 Charlie Dexter 3B -0.47 4.12
Johnny Kling C 2.47 17.06 Johnny Kling C 2.47 17.06
BENCH POS OWAR OWS BENCH POS OWAR OWS
Charlie Irwin 3B 0.74 17.4 Dusty Miller LF -0.25 3.95
Joe Tinker SS 3.31 16.58 Art Williams RF -0.33 2.46
Harry Wolverton 3B 0.41 10.43 Larry Schlafly RF 0.46 2.15
Frank Isbell 1B -0.32 9.1 Bunk Congalton RF -0.99 1.55
Art Nichols 1B 0.09 8.68 Johnny Evers 2B -0.17 1.27
Malachi Kittridge C 0.59 8.44 Hal O’Hagan 1B -0.06 1.09
Duke Farrell C -0.06 5.46 Jack Hendricks RF 0.19 0.91
Dusty Miller LF -0.25 3.95 Germany Schaefer 3B -2.27 0.71
Art Williams RF -0.33 2.46 Sammy Strang 3B 0.07 0.42
Larry Schlafly RF 0.46 2.15 Jim Murray RF -0.52 0.27
Zaza Harvey RF 0.15 1.58 Mike Jacobs SS -0.15 0.18
Bunk Congalton RF -0.99 1.55 Mike Lynch CF -0.34 0.14
Johnny Evers 2B -0.17 1.27 Snapper Kennedy CF -0.06 0.14
Germany Schaefer 3B -2.27 0.71 Ed Glenn SS -0.08 0.1
Jim Murray RF -0.52 0.27 Mike Kahoe C -0.11 0.09
Mike Jacobs SS -0.15 0.18 Pete Lamer C -0.06 0.07
Mike Lynch CF -0.34 0.14 Dad Clark 1B -0.31 0.05
Snapper Kennedy CF -0.06 0.14 Chick Pedroes RF -0.1 0.03
Jim Delahanty RF -0.14 0.09 R.E. Hillebrand RF -0.06 0.01
Pete Lamer C -0.06 0.07 Joe Hughes RF -0.05 0
Dad Clark 1B -0.31 0.05
Chick Pedroes RF -0.1 0.03
R.E. Hillebrand RF -0.06 0.01
Joe Hughes RF -0.05 0

Jack W. Taylor (23-11, 1.29) paced the National League in ERA, shutouts (8) and WHIP (0.953). Mal “Kid” Eason contributed 10 victories with a 2.76 ERA and Carl Lundgren (9-9, 1.97) completed 17 of 18 starts during his rookie campaign. Jock Menefee (12-10, 2.42) and Pop Williams (11-16, 2.49) rounded out the rotation for the “Actuals”.

  Original 1902 Orphans                         Actual 1902 Orphans

ROTATION POS OWAR OWS ROTATION POS OWAR OWS
Jack Taylor SP 7.47 31.24 Jack Taylor SP 7.47 31.24
Mal Eason SP 0.55 12.06 Jock Menefee SP 1.82 14.41
Carl Lundgren SP 0.89 10.79 Pop Williams SP 0.7 13.84
Tom Hughes SP 1.4 9 Carl Lundgren SP 0.89 10.79
BULLPEN POS OWAR OWS BULLPEN POS OWAR OWS
Jim St.Vrain SP 0.51 5.85 Jim St.Vrain SP 0.51 5.85
Bob Rhoads SP -1.48 3.4 Bob Rhoads SP -1.48 3.4
Jack Katoll SP -1.74 3.04 Frank Morrissey SP 0.05 2.12
Alex Hardy SP -0.29 1.16 Mal Eason SP 0.13 1.41
Fred Glade SP -0.49 0.27 Alex Hardy SP -0.29 1.16
Jim Gardner SP -0.1 1.01
Fred Glade SP -0.49 0.27

 

Notable Transactions

Bill Bradley 

Before 1901 Season: Jumped from the Chicago Orphans to the Cleveland Blues. 

Bill Dahlen 

January 25, 1899: Traded by the Chicago Orphans to the Baltimore Orioles for Gene DeMontreville.

March 11, 1899: Assigned to the Brooklyn Superbas by the Baltimore Orioles. 

Danny Green 

Before 1902 Season: Jumped from the Chicago Orphans to the Chicago White Sox. 

Jimmy Ryan

Before 1902 Season: To the Washington Senators in unknown transaction.

Charlie Irwin

July 11, 1901: Released by the Cincinnati Reds.

July 12, 1901: Signed as a Free Agent with the Brooklyn Superbas.

Honorable Mention

The 1966 Chicago Cubs 

OWAR: 43.3     OWS: 235     OPW%: .510     (83-79)

AWAR: 27.1       AWS: 176      APW%: .364    (59-103)

WARdiff: 16.2                        WSdiff: 59

The “Original” 1966 Cubs placed fourth with a record north of .500 yet fifteen games off the pace of the Giants. Ron Santo (.312/30/94) merited Gold Glove honors for the third straight season and paced the circuit with 95 bases on balls and a .412 OBP. Lou Brock aka “The Franchise” tallied 94 runs and topped the National League with 74 stolen bases. “Sweet Swingin’” Billy L. Williams socked 29 long balls and registered 100 runs scored. Al “Red” Worthington (2.46, 16 SV) fashioned a 1.018 WHIP and secured the late-inning leads. Ernie “Mr. Cub” Banks contributed 23 two-baggers and a .272 BA. Ken Holtzman collected 11 victories while furnishing an ERA of 3.79 in his inaugural season.

On Deck

What Might Have Been – The “Original” 1921 Tigers

References and Resources

Baseball America – Executive Database

Baseball-Reference

James, Bill. The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract. New York, NY.: The Free Press, 2001. Print.

James, Bill, with Jim Henzler. Win Shares. Morton Grove, Ill.: STATS, 2002. Print.

Retrosheet – Transactions Database

The information used here was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Interested parties may contact Retrosheet at “www.retrosheet.org”.

Seamheads – Baseball Gauge

Sean Lahman Baseball Archive