Eric Hosmer: Market Value and 2018 Projections

Hosmer certainly had his best season so far, with a 4.0 sWAR[1] and a .376 wOBA. Overall, consistency has not been there; over the past three years his offensive output has fluctuated, and that is something that can be said for his entire career. When looking at his offensive contribution, it seems that he has a “quality” season every other year. Nonetheless, Hosmer has been able to get on-base at an above-average rate of .359 OBP for the past three seasons. Also, he has managed to strike out (K%) at an average rate of 17.2% for the same period of time.

Moving forward, Hosmer’s offensive output for 2018 is projected[2] to see a slight decline. As previously mentioned, consistency is not his strength, and this should be reflected on his overall contribution for next year. A decline in wOBA (.351) from last year, alongside an increased K% (17.1%) will negatively impact his sWAR (2.6) in 2018.

Below you can find a detailed 2018 projection.

2018 Projections: Eric Hosmer
YEAR AGE sWAR wOBA OBP SLG OPS ISO AVG K% BB%
2015 25 2.7 0.355 0.363 0.459 0.822 0.162 0.297 16.2% 9.1%
2016 26 0.2 0.326 0.328 0.433 0.761 0.167 0.266 19.8% 8.5%
2017 27 4.0 0.376 0.385 0.498 0.883 0.180 0.318 15.5% 9.8%
2018 28 2.6 0.351 0.359 0.467 0.825 0.173 0.294 17.1% 9.2%

Projections: “SEG Projection System” (Including sWAR for 2015-2018)

sWAR = “SEG Projection System” calculation of WAR

Eric Hosmer’s estimated AAV is $21M, based on a five-year/$105M contract. He should be worth about 11.5 sWAR over the next five seasons. There has been a lot of noise regarding dollar amount and duration of contract. Going up to a seven-year agreement, he should be worth no more than $124M.

Market Value: Eric Hosmer

YEAR

AGE sWAR Value $WAR
2018 28 2.6 $21.8 $8.4
2019 29 2.6 $22.9 $8.8
2020 30 2.6 $23.9 $9.2
2021 31 2.1 $20.4 $9.7
2022 32 1.6 $16.3 $10.2
2023 33 1.1 $11.8 $10.7
2024 34 0.6 $6.7 $11.2
TOTAL 13.2 $123.8

 

sWAR = “SEG Projection System” calculation of WAR 

$WAR: Adjusted for Inflation (5% per year)

 

[1] sWAR = “SEG Projection System” calculation of WAR

[2] 2018 Projections: Eric Hosmer (SEG Projection System)



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