Hardball Retrospective – The “Original” 2003 Florida Marlins

In “Hardball Retrospective: Evaluating Scouting and Development Outcomes for the Modern-Era Franchises”, I placed every ballplayer in the modern era (from 1901-present) on their original team. Consequently, Reggie Jackson is listed on the Athletics roster for the duration of his career while the Mets claim Tom Seaver and the Cardinals declare Steve Carlton. I calculated revised standings for every season based entirely on the performance of each team’s “original” players. I discuss every team’s “original” players and seasons at length along with organizational performance with respect to the Amateur Draft (or First-Year Player Draft), amateur free agent signings and other methods of player acquisition.  Season standings, WAR and Win Shares totals for the “original” teams are compared against the real-time or “actual” team results to assess each franchise’s scouting, development and general management skills.

Expanding on my research for the book, the following series of articles will reveal the finest single-season rosters for every Major League organization based on overall rankings in OWAR and OWS along with the general managers and scouting directors that constructed the teams. “Hardball Retrospective” is available in Kindle format on Amazon.com and ePub format on KoboBooks.com – other eBook formats coming soon. Additional information and a discussion forum are available at TuataraSoftware.com.

Terminology

OWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “original” teams

OWS – Win Shares for players on “original” teams

OPW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “original” teams

Assessment

The 2003 Florida Marlins           OWAR: 43.8     OWS: 260     OPW%: .522

GM Dave Dombrowski acquired all of the talent on the finest “Original” Marlins roster in team history – the 2003 squad. Fourteen of the 27 players were signed as amateur free agents and twelve entered the organization via the Amateur Draft. Kevin Millar was the lone exception as he was purchased from the St. Paul Saints (Northern League) in 1993. Based on the revised standings the “Original” 2003 Marlins notched 85 victories and tied the Expos for second place in the National League East, two games behind the Braves.

Cuban right-hander Livan Hernandez (15-10, 3.20) fashioned a career-best WHIP of 1.209 while leading the National League in complete games (8) and innings pitched (233.1). Josh Beckett paced the staff with a 3.04 ERA in 23 starts. Claudio Vargas, Gary Knotts and Nate Robertson rounded out the rotation. Felix Heredia (5-3, 2.69) delivered the best ERA and WHIP (1.230) of his career as the featured left-hander in the bullpen.

ROTATION POS WAR WS
Livan Hernandez SP 6.33 21.08
Josh Beckett SP 3.04 10.93
Claudio Vargas SP 1.41 6.65
Gary Knotts SP -1.05 0.73
Nate Robertson SP 0.05 1.32
BULLPEN POS WAR WS
Felix Heredia RP 1.48 8.18
Will Cunnane RP 0.46 3.16
Michael Tejera SW 0.01 3.19
Vic Darensbourg RP -0.36 0.26
Jason Pearson RP -0.54 0
Hector Almonte RP -0.75 0
Brian Meadows SP -0.27 3.12
Blaine Neal RP -0.95 0
Kevin Olsen RP -1.13 0

The Marlins’ farm system yielded two first-rate shortstops, Edgar Renteria and Alex “Sea Bass” Gonzalez. Renteria (.330/13/100) topped the club in BA, hits, doubles (47), RBI and stolen bases (34) while earning his second Gold Glove Award and appearing in his third All-Star game. Gonzalez tallied 33 two-baggers and swatted 18 big-flies. Second-sacker Luis Castillo managed a .314 BA and collected the first of three consecutive Gold Glove Awards. Miguel Cabrera was recalled in mid-June to handle assignments at third base and left field. The 20 year-old sensation from Maracay, Venezuela drove in 62 runs and placed fifth in the 2003 NL Rookie of the Year balloting. Kevin Millar slugged a team-high 25 round-trippers and plated 96 baserunners. Randy Winn (.295/11/75) led the Fish with 103 runs scored, drilled 37 two-base hits and swiped 23 bags. Charles Johnson handled the primary workload behind the dish and swatted 20 long balls.

LINEUP POS WAR WS
Luis Castillo 2B 3.12 23.37
Edgar Renteria SS 4.62 25.78
Randy Winn RF/LF 2.56 19.31
Kevin Millar 1B 1.83 14.94
Mark Kotsay CF 2.15 14.21
Miguel Cabrera 3B/LF 0.08 8.66
Charles Johnson C 1.25 11.6
Billy McMillon LF 0.62 5.12
BENCH POS total_WAR total_WS
Alex Gonzalez SS 1.79 20.48
Mike Redmond C 0.14 1.88
Luis Ugueto 2B 0.01 0.21
Julio Ramirez CF -0.05 0
Dave Berg 2B -0.41 2.37

The “Original” 2003 Florida Marlins roster

Player POS WAR WS General Manager Scouting Director
Livan Hernandez SP 6.33 21.08 Dave Dombrowski Orrin Freeman
Edgar Renteria SS 4.62 25.78 Dave Dombrowski Gary Hughes
Luis Castillo 2B 3.12 23.37 Dave Dombrowski Gary Hughes
Josh Beckett SP 3.04 10.93 Dave Dombrowski Al Avila
Randy Winn LF 2.56 19.31 Dave Dombrowski Gary Hughes
Mark Kotsay CF 2.15 14.21 Dave Dombrowski Orrin Freeman
Kevin Millar 1B 1.83 14.94 Dave Dombrowski Gary Hughes
Alex Gonzalez SS 1.79 20.48 Dave Dombrowski Gary Hughes
Felix Heredia RP 1.48 8.18 Dave Dombrowski Gary Hughes
Claudio Vargas SP 1.41 6.65 Dave Dombrowski Gary Hughes
Charles Johnson C 1.25 11.6 Dave Dombrowski Gary Hughes
Billy McMillon LF 0.62 5.12 Dave Dombrowski Gary Hughes
Will Cunnane RP 0.46 3.16 Dave Dombrowski Gary Hughes
Mike Redmond C 0.14 1.88 Dave Dombrowski Gary Hughes
Miguel Cabrera LF 0.08 8.66 Dave Dombrowski Al Avila
Nate Robertson SP 0.05 1.32 Dave Dombrowski Al Avila
Michael Tejera SW 0.01 3.19 Dave Dombrowski Gary Hughes
Luis Ugueto 2B 0.01 0.21 Dave Dombrowski Orrin Freeman
Julio Ramirez CF -0.05 0 Dave Dombrowski Gary Hughes
Brian Meadows SP -0.27 3.12 Dave Dombrowski Gary Hughes
Vic Darensbourg RP -0.36 0.26 Dave Dombrowski Gary Hughes
Dave Berg 2B -0.41 2.37 Dave Dombrowski Gary Hughes
Jason Pearson RP -0.54 0 Dave Dombrowski Orrin Freeman
Hector Almonte RP -0.75 0 Dave Dombrowski Gary Hughes
Blaine Neal RP -0.95 0 Dave Dombrowski Orrin Freeman
Gary Knotts SP -1.05 0.73 Dave Dombrowski Gary Hughes
Kevin Olsen RP -1.13 0 Dave Dombrowski Orrin Freeman

 

Honorable Mention

The “Original” 2011 Marlins              OWAR: 39.8     OWS: 254     OPW%: .510

Adrian Gonzalez (.338/27/117) and Giancarlo Stanton (.262/34/87) along with batting champion Miguel Cabrera (.344/30/105) form a potent lineup as the Marlins seize the National League Wild Card entry.

On Deck

The “Original” 2013 Diamondbacks

References and Resources

Baseball America – Executive Database

Baseball-Reference

James, Bill, with Jim Henzler. Win Shares. Morton Grove, Ill.: STATS, 2002. Print.

Retrosheet – Transactions Database

Seamheads – Baseball Gauge

Sean Lahman Baseball Archive



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Derek Bain is a New Jersey native with a passion for baseball, statistics, computers and video games. He has written a number of articles for Fangraphs and Seamheads, and enjoys spending quality time with his family.

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Julian Assange
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Julian Assange

Where did you get the WS data? did you calculate it yourself?

DerekBain
Guest

Julian, I downloaded the Win Shares and WAR data from the Seamheads – Baseball Gauge. (see References and Resources above.)

Julian Assange
Guest
Julian Assange

Thank you! I have been looking for WS data for a long time. I calculated them myself last month and it took forever! Just wish I had found them.