In “Hardball Retrospective: Evaluating Scouting and Development Outcomes for the Modern-Era Franchises”, I placed every ballplayer in the modern era (from 1901-present) on their original team. I calculated revised standings for every season based entirely on the performance of each team’s “original” players. I discuss every team’s “original” players and seasons at length along with organizational performance with respect to the Amateur Draft (or First-Year Player Draft), amateur free agent signings and other methods of player acquisition. Season standings, WAR and Win Shares totals for the “original” teams are compared against the “actual” team results to assess each franchise’s scouting, development and general management skills.
Expanding on my research for the book, the following series of articles will reveal the teams with the biggest single-season difference in the WAR and Win Shares for the “Original” vs. “Actual” rosters for every Major League organization. “Hardball Retrospective” is available in digital format on Amazon, Barnes and Noble, GooglePlay, iTunes and KoboBooks. The paperback edition is available on Amazon, Barnes and Noble and CreateSpace. Supplemental Statistics, Charts and Graphs along with a discussion forum are offered at TuataraSoftware.com.
Don Daglow (Intellivision World Series Major League Baseball, Earl Weaver Baseball, Tony LaRussa Baseball) contributed the foreword for Hardball Retrospective. The foreword and preview of my book are accessible here.
OWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “original” teams
OWS – Win Shares for players on “original” teams
OPW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “original” teams
AWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “actual” teams
AWS – Win Shares for players on “actual” teams
APW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “actual” teams
The 1902 Chicago Orphans
OWAR: 37.4 OWS: 280 OPW%: .527 (74-66)
AWAR: 29.9 AWS: 203 APW%: .496 (68-69)
WARdiff: 7.5 WSdiff: 77
The 1902 “Original” Orphans finished in third place, ten games behind the Reds. Bill Bradley (.340/11/77) thrived against opposing hurlers, notching career-bests in base hits (187), runs scored (104), doubles (39), home runs and batting average. “Bad” Bill Dahlen drilled 25 two-baggers and swiped 20 bags. Danny Green delivered a .302 BA and pilfered 35 bases. Jimmy “Pony” Ryan slashed 32 two-base knocks and produced a .320 BA. Johnny “Noisy” Kling succeeded on 25 stolen base attempts. Jimmy “Rabbit” Slagle executed 41 thefts and supplied a .315 BA for the “Actual” Orphans.
Bill Dahlen rated twenty-first among shortstops in the “The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract” top 100 player rankings. “Original” Orphans teammates registered in the “NBJHBA” top 100 rankings include Frank Chance (25th-1B), Johnny Evers (25th-2B), Jimmy Ryan (26th-CF), Joe Tinker (33rd-SS), Bill Bradley (46th-3B), Johnny Kling (48th-C) and Tom Daly (55th-2B). “Actuals” second-sacker Bobby Lowe placed fifty-sixth.
Original 1902 Orphans Actual 1902 Orphans
|STARTING LINEUP||POS||OWAR||OWS||STARTING LINEUP||POS||OWAR||OWS|
|Jimmy Ryan||LF/CF||3.26||18.59||Jimmy Slagle||LF||5.11||22.25|
|Davy Jones||CF||2.67||13.4||Davy Jones||CF||2.67||13.4|
|Danny Green||RF||3.52||20.73||John Dobbs||RF/CF||0.8||8.31|
|Frank Chance||1B||2.66||12.37||Frank Chance||1B||2.66||12.37|
|Tom Daly||2B||-1.87||10.46||Bobby Lowe||2B||0.79||10.24|
|Bill Dahlen||SS||4.65||21.9||Joe Tinker||SS||3.31||16.58|
|Bill Bradley||3B||5.38||25.61||Charlie Dexter||3B||-0.47||4.12|
|Johnny Kling||C||2.47||17.06||Johnny Kling||C||2.47||17.06|
|Charlie Irwin||3B||0.74||17.4||Dusty Miller||LF||-0.25||3.95|
|Joe Tinker||SS||3.31||16.58||Art Williams||RF||-0.33||2.46|
|Harry Wolverton||3B||0.41||10.43||Larry Schlafly||RF||0.46||2.15|
|Frank Isbell||1B||-0.32||9.1||Bunk Congalton||RF||-0.99||1.55|
|Art Nichols||1B||0.09||8.68||Johnny Evers||2B||-0.17||1.27|
|Malachi Kittridge||C||0.59||8.44||Hal O’Hagan||1B||-0.06||1.09|
|Duke Farrell||C||-0.06||5.46||Jack Hendricks||RF||0.19||0.91|
|Dusty Miller||LF||-0.25||3.95||Germany Schaefer||3B||-2.27||0.71|
|Art Williams||RF||-0.33||2.46||Sammy Strang||3B||0.07||0.42|
|Larry Schlafly||RF||0.46||2.15||Jim Murray||RF||-0.52||0.27|
|Zaza Harvey||RF||0.15||1.58||Mike Jacobs||SS||-0.15||0.18|
|Bunk Congalton||RF||-0.99||1.55||Mike Lynch||CF||-0.34||0.14|
|Johnny Evers||2B||-0.17||1.27||Snapper Kennedy||CF||-0.06||0.14|
|Germany Schaefer||3B||-2.27||0.71||Ed Glenn||SS||-0.08||0.1|
|Jim Murray||RF||-0.52||0.27||Mike Kahoe||C||-0.11||0.09|
|Mike Jacobs||SS||-0.15||0.18||Pete Lamer||C||-0.06||0.07|
|Mike Lynch||CF||-0.34||0.14||Dad Clark||1B||-0.31||0.05|
|Snapper Kennedy||CF||-0.06||0.14||Chick Pedroes||RF||-0.1||0.03|
|Jim Delahanty||RF||-0.14||0.09||R.E. Hillebrand||RF||-0.06||0.01|
|Pete Lamer||C||-0.06||0.07||Joe Hughes||RF||-0.05||0|
Jack W. Taylor (23-11, 1.29) paced the National League in ERA, shutouts (8) and WHIP (0.953). Mal “Kid” Eason contributed 10 victories with a 2.76 ERA and Carl Lundgren (9-9, 1.97) completed 17 of 18 starts during his rookie campaign. Jock Menefee (12-10, 2.42) and Pop Williams (11-16, 2.49) rounded out the rotation for the “Actuals”.
Original 1902 Orphans Actual 1902 Orphans
|Jack Taylor||SP||7.47||31.24||Jack Taylor||SP||7.47||31.24|
|Mal Eason||SP||0.55||12.06||Jock Menefee||SP||1.82||14.41|
|Carl Lundgren||SP||0.89||10.79||Pop Williams||SP||0.7||13.84|
|Tom Hughes||SP||1.4||9||Carl Lundgren||SP||0.89||10.79|
|Jim St.Vrain||SP||0.51||5.85||Jim St.Vrain||SP||0.51||5.85|
|Bob Rhoads||SP||-1.48||3.4||Bob Rhoads||SP||-1.48||3.4|
|Jack Katoll||SP||-1.74||3.04||Frank Morrissey||SP||0.05||2.12|
|Alex Hardy||SP||-0.29||1.16||Mal Eason||SP||0.13||1.41|
|Fred Glade||SP||-0.49||0.27||Alex Hardy||SP||-0.29||1.16|
Before 1901 Season: Jumped from the Chicago Orphans to the Cleveland Blues.
January 25, 1899: Traded by the Chicago Orphans to the Baltimore Orioles for Gene DeMontreville.
March 11, 1899: Assigned to the Brooklyn Superbas by the Baltimore Orioles.
Before 1902 Season: Jumped from the Chicago Orphans to the Chicago White Sox.
Before 1902 Season: To the Washington Senators in unknown transaction.
July 11, 1901: Released by the Cincinnati Reds.
July 12, 1901: Signed as a Free Agent with the Brooklyn Superbas.
The 1966 Chicago Cubs
OWAR: 43.3 OWS: 235 OPW%: .510 (83-79)
AWAR: 27.1 AWS: 176 APW%: .364 (59-103)
WARdiff: 16.2 WSdiff: 59
The “Original” 1966 Cubs placed fourth with a record north of .500 yet fifteen games off the pace of the Giants. Ron Santo (.312/30/94) merited Gold Glove honors for the third straight season and paced the circuit with 95 bases on balls and a .412 OBP. Lou Brock aka “The Franchise” tallied 94 runs and topped the National League with 74 stolen bases. “Sweet Swingin’” Billy L. Williams socked 29 long balls and registered 100 runs scored. Al “Red” Worthington (2.46, 16 SV) fashioned a 1.018 WHIP and secured the late-inning leads. Ernie “Mr. Cub” Banks contributed 23 two-baggers and a .272 BA. Ken Holtzman collected 11 victories while furnishing an ERA of 3.79 in his inaugural season.
What Might Have Been – The “Original” 1921 Tigers
References and Resources
James, Bill. The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract. New York, NY.: The Free Press, 2001. Print.
James, Bill, with Jim Henzler. Win Shares. Morton Grove, Ill.: STATS, 2002. Print.
The information used here was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Interested parties may contact Retrosheet at “www.retrosheet.org”.