Hardball Retrospective – What Might Have Been – The “Original” 2013 Marlins

In “Hardball Retrospective: Evaluating Scouting and Development Outcomes for the Modern-Era Franchises”, I placed every ballplayer in the modern era (from 1901-present) on their original team. I calculated revised standings for every season based entirely on the performance of each team’s “original” players. I discuss every team’s “original” players and seasons at length along with organizational performance with respect to the Amateur Draft (or First-Year Player Draft), amateur free agent signings and other methods of player acquisition.  Season standings, WAR and Win Shares totals for the “original” teams are compared against the “actual” team results to assess each franchise’s scouting, development and general management skills.

Expanding on my research for the book, the following series of articles will reveal the teams with the biggest single-season difference in the WAR and Win Shares for the “Original” vs. “Actual” rosters for every Major League organization. “Hardball Retrospective” is available in digital format on Amazon, Barnes and Noble, GooglePlay, iTunes and KoboBooks. The paperback edition is available on Amazon, Barnes and Noble and CreateSpace. Supplemental Statistics, Charts and Graphs along with a discussion forum are offered at TuataraSoftware.com.

Don Daglow (Intellivision World Series Major League Baseball, Earl Weaver Baseball, Tony LaRussa Baseball) contributed the foreword for Hardball Retrospective. The foreword and preview of my book are accessible here.

Terminology

OWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “original” teams

OWS – Win Shares for players on “original” teams

OPW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “original” teams

AWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “actual” teams

AWS – Win Shares for players on “actual” teams

APW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “actual” teams

Assessment

The 2013 Miami Marlins 

OWAR: 33.0     OWS: 255     OPW%: .468     (76-86)

AWAR: 18.5      AWS: 185     APW%: .383     (62-100)

WARdiff: 14.5                        WSdiff: 70  

 

The “Original” 2013 Marlins tied with the Phillies for last place, yet the ball club managed to school the “Actuals” by a 14-game margin. Miguel Cabrera seized MVP honors for the second consecutive season and notched his third straight batting title. “Miggy” produced a .348 BA, dialed long-distance 44 times and knocked in 137 baserunners. Adrian Gonzalez swatted 22 big-flies and reached the century mark in RBI for the sixth time in his career. Matt Dominguez drilled 25 two-base hits and blasted 21 round-trippers. Giancarlo Stanton supplied 26 doubles and 24 four-baggers as a member of the “Originals” and “Actuals”.

  Original 2013 Marlins                              Actual 2013 Marlins

STARTING LINEUP POS OWAR OWS STARTING LINEUP POS OWAR OWS
Josh Willingham LF 0.23 9 Christian Yelich LF 1.34 8.34
Marcell Ozuna CF/RF 0.16 6.68 Justin Ruggiano CF 1.11 9.23
Giancarlo Stanton RF 3.14 16.66 Giancarlo Stanton RF 3.14 16.66
Adrian Gonzalez 1B 4.12 21.17 Logan Morrison 1B 0.32 6.16
Josh Wilson 2B -0.11 0.54 Donovan Solano 2B 0.44 6.95
Robert Andino SS -0.26 0.82 Adeiny Hechavarria SS -2.33 4.28
Miguel Cabrera 3B 6.8 33.13 Ed Lucas 3B 0.42 7.2
Brett Hayes C 0.17 1.01 Jeff Mathis C -0.17 3.22
BENCH POS OWAR OWS BENCH POS OWAR OWS
Matt Dominguez 3B 0.84 11.34 Marcell Ozuna RF 0.16 6.68
Gaby Sanchez 1B 1.91 10.36 Placido Polanco 3B -0.35 5.41
Christian Yelich LF 1.34 8.34 Chris Coghlan LF 0.32 5.35
Logan Morrison 1B 0.32 6.16 Derek Dietrich 2B 0.63 5.29
Chris Coghlan LF 0.32 5.35 Juan Pierre LF -0.27 4.38
Jim Adduci LF 0.03 0.59 Rob Brantly C -0.98 2.61
Alex Gonzalez 1B -0.94 0.32 Greg Dobbs 1B -0.6 2.5
Mark Kotsay LF -1 0.17 Jake Marisnick CF 0.13 1.54
Kyle Skipworth C -0.05 0.01 Miguel Olivo C 0.17 1.17
Scott Cousins LF -0.06 0 Nick Green SS -0.01 1.05
Chris Valaika 2B -0.13 0.58
Joe Mahoney 1B -0.04 0.54
Koyie Hill C -0.55 0.54
Austin Kearns RF -0.13 0.25
Matt Diaz LF -0.14 0.15
Casey Kotchman 1B -0.25 0.06
Kyle Skipworth C -0.05 0.01
Jordan Brown DH -0.06 0
Gil Velazquez 3B -0.01 0

Jose D. Fernandez (12-6, 2.19) merited 2013 NL Rookie of the Year honors and an All-Star invitation while placing third in the NL Cy Young balloting. Portsider Jason Vargas contributed 9 victories with a 4.02 ERA to the “Originals” rotation and Henderson “The Entertainer” Alvarez fashioned a 3.59 ERA and 1.140 WHIP for the “Actuals” in 17 starts. The Marlins’ bullpen featured Steve Cishek (2.33, 34 SV). A.J. Ramos whiffed 86 batsmen in 68 relief appearances.

  Original 2013 Marlins                             Actual 2013 Marlins 

ROTATION POS OWAR OWS ROTATION POS OWAR OWS
Jose D. Fernandez SP 5.57 16.22 Jose D. Fernandez SP 5.57 16.22
Jason Vargas SP 2 7.04 Henderson Alvarez SP 1.89 6.19
Tom Koehler SP 0.46 3.96 Nathan Eovaldi SP 1.39 5.63
Brad Hand SP 0.4 1.43 Ricky Nolasco SP 1.13 4.92
Alex Sanabia SP -0.33 0.6 Jacob Turner SP 0.87 4.56
BULLPEN POS OWAR OWS BULLPEN POS OWAR OWS
Steve Cishek RP 1.62 12.99 Steve Cishek RP 1.62 12.99
A. J. Ramos RP 0.34 5.23 Mike Dunn RP 1.06 6.64
Ronald Belisario RP -0.9 2.61 Chad Qualls RP 1.22 6.22
Sandy Rosario RP 0.24 2.53 A. J. Ramos RP 0.34 5.23
Dan Jennings RP 0.08 1.95 Ryan Webb RP 0.6 5.02
Ross Wolf SW 0.14 1.92 Tom Koehler SP 0.46 3.96
Arquimedes Caminero RP 0.16 0.95 Kevin Slowey SP 0.46 3.15
Logan Kensing RP 0.02 0.1 Dan Jennings RP 0.08 1.95
Josh Johnson SP -1.25 0.04 Brad Hand SP 0.4 1.43
Josh Beckett SP -0.81 0 Arquimedes Caminero RP 0.16 0.95
Chris Hatcher RP -0.93 0 Alex Sanabia SP -0.33 0.6
Chris Leroux RP -0.17 0 Brian Flynn SP -0.59 0.14
Edgar Olmos RP -0.68 0 Steve Ames RP -0.02 0.02
Chris Resop RP -0.6 0 Duane Below RP -0.19 0
Chris Volstad RP -0.49 0 Sam Dyson SP -0.59 0
Chris Hatcher RP -0.93 0
Wade LeBlanc SP -0.41 0
John Maine RP -0.66 0
Edgar Olmos RP -0.68 0
Zach Phillips RP -0.03 0
Jon Rauch RP -0.71 0

 Notable Transactions

Miguel Cabrera 

December 4, 2007: Traded by the Florida Marlins with Dontrelle Willis to the Detroit Tigers for Dallas Trahern (minors), Burke Badenhop, Frankie De La Cruz, Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller and Mike Rabelo. 

Adrian Gonzalez 

July 11, 2003: Traded by the Florida Marlins with Will Smith (minors) and Ryan Snare to the Texas Rangers for Ugueth Urbina.

January 6, 2006: Traded by the Texas Rangers with Terrmel Sledge and Chris Young to the San Diego Padres for Billy Killian (minors), Adam Eaton and Akinori Otsuka.

December 6, 2010: Traded by the San Diego Padres to the Boston Red Sox for a player to be named later, Reymond Fuentes, Casey Kelly and Anthony Rizzo. The Boston Red Sox sent Eric Patterson (December 16, 2010) to the San Diego Padres to complete the trade.

August 25, 2012: Traded by the Boston Red Sox with Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford, Nick Punto and cash to the Los Angeles Dodgers for players to be named later, Ivan De Jesus, James Loney and Allen Webster. The Los Angeles Dodgers sent Rubby De La Rosa (October 4, 2012) and Jerry Sands (October 4, 2012) to the Boston Red Sox to complete the trade. 

Matt Dominguez

July 4, 2012: Traded by the Miami Marlins with Rob Rasmussen to the Houston Astros for Carlos Lee.

Gaby Sanchez

July 31, 2012: Traded by the Miami Marlins with Kyle Kaminska (minors) to the Pittsburgh Pirates for Gorkys Hernandez.

On Deck

What Might Have Been – The “Original” 1985 Expos

References and Resources

Baseball America – Executive Database

Baseball-Reference

James, Bill. The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract. New York, NY.: The Free Press, 2001. Print.

James, Bill, with Jim Henzler. Win Shares. Morton Grove, Ill.: STATS, 2002. Print.

Retrosheet – Transactions Database

The information used here was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Interested parties may contact Retrosheet at “www.retrosheet.org”.

Seamheads – Baseball Gauge

Sean Lahman Baseball Archive



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Derek Bain is a New Jersey native with a passion for baseball, statistics, computers and video games. He has written a number of articles for Fangraphs and Seamheads, and enjoys spending quality time with his family.

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