Introducing the ODIEs Projection System

Projecting baseball players has been a hobby of mine for the past 2 seasons. I would like to openly thank FanGraphs for the ease of accessing data to build a system for projections, as well as inspiration start this project from Tom Tango, Dan Syzmborski, Jared Cross (and team at Steamer) and all of the great researchers here at FanGraphs for pushing me to learn and try new things in creating a projection system.

The ODIEs (Oden Decision & Information Enhancement system) of projecting players is not all that dissimilar from Steamer and ZiPS found here at FanGraphs. My methodology for creating hitter and pitcher projections are as follows:

1. Weighted average of the last 3 years of player data depending on service time. Minor League Equivalencies are done for players with less than 3 years of service time.

2. Regressed stats based on league, park, and position type (C, 1B/3B, 2B/SS, OF, and SP/RP)

3. Adjusting for Age

4. Adjustments for Pitcher Velocity and Hitter Contact (Soft, Medium, & Hard)

5. Rest of Season Projections are weighted by Pre-Season and Actual stats for the 2015 season. I also readjust Rest of Season projections based on the criteria in point #4.

The major difference (that I can tell) in the ODIEs system to other successful systems is the incorporation of how stats are regressed and the adjustments for Velocity and Hitter Contact.

The files below will take you to the projections for both Hitters and Pitchers – here are some details to note:

1. There are three tabs for Pre-Season Projections, Rest of Season Projections (updated as of 7/23 games), and Total Projections using Real Data and Rest of Season Projections.

2. Each tab has a Criteria Search function that you can manipulate data in, the “Classification” column will change based on the results of your entries.

3. Fantasy Points, Points per game, PAR, and PAPAR values are all based on Ottoneu points scoring

I hope these projections are of use to anyone in Fantasy leagues, interested in player analysis, or anyone looking to push me to create the best projection system I can.

Link to Hitter Projections: https://www.dropbox.com/s/kyfr4i19nsn6hc4/ODIES_Shared_Hitters.xlsx?dl=0
Link to Pitcher Projections: https://www.dropbox.com/s/8t4ovkouir8f2sf/ODIES_Shared_Pitchers.xlsx?dl=0

Thanks, and I welcome and feedback or questions on this project.



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Bobby Mueller
Member
Member

This is cool. I applaud your effort. I’m going to compare them to ZiPS and Steamer, at least the players on my fantasy team. :-)

Are the playing time projections based on the formula for creating the projections? Or is their any manual adjustment based on expected playing time going forward?

Jackson Mejia
Member

Very nice post! I really enjoy it when somebody creates something of their own rather than just using the creations of others. I look forward to seeing more projections of yours in the future.

On another note, do you know how to upload graphs to wordpress?