Lorenzo Cain Follow-Up: Market Value and 2018 Projections

As one of the remaining top free agents, Cain agreed to a 5yr/$80M deal with the Milwaukee Brewers. Reports indicate that Cain will earn $75M from 2018 to 2022 ($13M/$14M/$15M/16M/$17M) plus incentives, in addition to a deferred yearly payment of $1M for years 2023-2027 ($5M total). Based on Cain’s projected Market Value, he should be worth close to 9.6 sWAR for the next 3 years ($84M approx. Assuming 5% inflation per year). Understandably, Cain’s history regarding injuries and durability is a considerable factor moving forward.

A new home should benefit Cain’s offensive output. For the past 3 years, Miller Park has averaged a 106 HR Factor for RHB; which is significantly (P = 0.03) higher than Kauffman Stadium’s 88 (RHB) in the same period. Moreover, Cain has not “slowed” down, his sprint speed for last year (29.1 ft./sec) ranked him in the top 20 overall, in addition to being ranked in the top 10 among Center-Fielders as well.

Based on the aforementioned factors, Cain’s 2018 updated projections represent an increase in both OPS and ISO from last season. He should be able to get on-base at an above-average rate (0.358 OBP) in addition to an increase in SLG from last year. Although his wOBA is projected to regress marginally, Cain’s updated projections still aim toward a 3.7 sWAR (as a CF) for this upcoming season. Please find Cain’s updated 2018 projections in the chart below.

2018 Projections: Lorenzo Cain

2015 29 5.5 0.360 0.361 0.477 0.838 0.170 0.307 16.2% 6.1%
2016 30 2.7 0.322 0.339 0.408 0.747 0.121 0.287 19.4% 7.1%
2017 31 4.1 0.347 0.363 0.440 0.803 0.140 0.300 15.5% 8.4%
2018 32 3.7 0.336 0.358 0.457 0.815 0.157 0.300 16.9%


———————————————————————————————————————————————————Disclaimer: SEG projections are computer-based projections of performance based on the “SEG Projections System” framework. Regarding Wins Above Replacement (WAR), sWAR is the “SEG Projection System” calculation of WAR. sWAR will always stand for WINS ABOVE REPLACEMENT (“WAR”), unless noted otherwise.


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Why is that system so different from steamer which has him at 2.9?

I think that 2015 season is weighed too heavily, it is really way better than every other season of him.

I think around a 105-110 wrc+ is most likely, that is actually pretty close to his career average.