Vegas vs. Steamer

Apparently, there’s a big game in another popular American sport coming up in a couple weeks and many fans of this other sport head to Vegas this time of year to lay down a proposition or two on this big game. Actually, big game doesn’t really do it justice. It’s more like a great game or a fantastic game or maybe even a . . . super game (so as to not be sued for violating any trademarks or licensing agreements, I will leave it at that).

If you’re a baseball fan and you happen to be in Vegas laying down some moolah on this . . . super game . . . you might want to consider throwing a few Benjamins on your favorite baseball team. The most-recent Las Vegas odds to win the World Series are out and there could be some money to be made here. Caveat: I’ve never bet on baseball, nor have I ever been to Vegas, but I would like to go someday because I’m a big fan of The Blue Man Group. I did win $175 on a $5 bet on number 11 the first time I ever played roulette, so I’m not a total novice when it comes to gambling.

Anyway, using the Vegas odds of winning the World Series and the Steamer projected Standings, there are some strong plays on the board. Let’s look at each division, in chart form, starting with the NL West:

NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST

Odds Team W L W% RDif RS/G RA/G
13 to 2 Dodgers 91 71 .561 84 4.01 3.50
20 to 1 Giants 83 79 .513 17 3.79 3.69
25 to 1 Padres 79 83 .487 -18 3.76 3.87
120 to 1 Rockies 77 85 .474 -42 4.50 4.76
120 to 1 Diamondbacks 74 88 .454 -66 3.80 4.21

 

It’s interesting that Vegas is really excited about the Padres, at least compared to the Rockies and Diamondbacks, who don’t project to be that much worse but who face significantly longer odds. With the Giants’ recent success, they are probably the best play here. Even if you don’t think they can beat out the Dodgers for the division, they’ve proven that they can make a run if they get into the playoffs as a wild card team. Of course, this is an odd-numbered year, so you might want to save your money and look elsewhere.

NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL

Odds Team W L W% RDif RS/G RA/G
14 to 1 Cardinals 86 76 .533 46 4.02 3.74
30 to 1 Pirates 85 77 .527 38 4.06 3.82
14 to 1 Cubs 84 78 .517 24 4.10 3.95
60 to 1 Brewers 76 86 .468 -47 3.99 4.28
70 to 1 Reds 76 86 .468 -46 3.76 4.04

 

The play here is the Pittsburgh Pirates. They are projected to be just a game off the division lead, but with odds at 30 to 1. In a world full of parity, every team in baseball would have a .500 record and 30 to 1 odds and there would be no supermodels. That would be a sad, sad, world. In this world, the Pirates are projected to be better than .500 and should have better odds than 30 to 1. Meanwhile, Vegas is excited about the Cubs, giving them 14 to 1 odds (they opened at 45 to 1). Some of you may remember that in Back to the Future, the Cubs won the 2015 World Series (in a 5-game sweep over Miami) after starting the year with 100 to 1 odds. This could be the Cubs’ year, McFly!

NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST

Odds Team W L W% RDif RS/G RA/G
5 to 1 Nationals 91 71 .561 86 4.19 3.65
30 to 1 Marlins 81 81 .500 0 3.93 3.93
25 to 1 Mets 78 84 .482 -24 3.77 3.92
60 to 1 Braves 71 91 .439 -85 3.58 4.11
300 to 1 Phillies 68 94 .421 -112 3.53 4.22

 

There aren’t any real good plays here. As good as the Nationals look now, especially after acquiring Max Scherzer, it would be foolish to put any money on a major league team at 5 to 1 odds to win the World Series. There’s just too much unpredictability come playoff time. None of the teams in this division have appealing odds, unless your name is Lloyd Christmas, in which case you have to jump all over the Phillies at 300 to 1 (“So you’re telling me there’s a chance?”).

AMERICAN LEAGUE EAST

Odds Team W L W% RDif RS/G RA/G
14 to 1 Red Sox 88 74 .546 70 4.67 4.24
30 to 1 Blue Jays 84 78 .516 24 4.49 4.34
75 to 1 Rays 83 79 .511 16 4.00 3.90
25 to 1 Yankees 82 80 .508 11 4.14 4.07
20 to 1 Orioles 79 83 .485 -23 4.23 4.37

 

There’s no love for the Tampa Bay Rays in Vegas, with odds of 75 to 1 in what still looks like a tight division. The Rays opened at 35 to 1. Apparently, Las Vegas does not like their recent moves. Based on Steamer projections, the Rays look like your best longshot option of any team in baseball.

AMERICAN LEAGUE CENTRAL

Odds Team W L W% RDif RS/G RA/G
20 to 1 Tigers 85 77 .526 39 4.42 4.17
25 to 1 Indians 84 78 .521 30 4.15 3.97
25 to 1 Royals 81 81 .498 -2 4.06 4.08
20 to 1 White Sox 77 85 .478 -32 4.11 4.31
100 to 1 Twins 76 86 .467 -50 4.13 4.44

 

No team jumps out here, but if I had to pick one, I’d take the Indians at 25 to 1. They look to be right there with the Tigers to win the division, but with slightly worse odds, so you’d get a bigger payout if they went all the way.

AMERICAN LEAGUE WEST

Odds Team W L W% RDif RS/G RA/G
14 to 1 Mariners 89 73 .547 68 4.20 3.79
60 to 1 Athletics 84 78 .519 28 4.20 4.02
10 to 1 Angels 84 78 .517 25 4.28 4.13
50 to 1 Rangers 78 84 .483 -26 4.29 4.45
60 to 1 Astros 77 85 .477 -34 4.18 4.39

 

I guess when you lose Josh Donaldson, Brandon Moss, Jeff Samardzija, Jon Lester, and Derek Norris, your odds to win the World Series should get worse, but 60 to 1, really? Steamer still has Oakland in the mix for the AL Wild Card and just 5 games back of the Mariners for the division.

Here is a look at the teams in each league who are projected to be in contention, along with their Vegas odds:

NATIONAL LEAGUE
Odds Team W L W%
5 to 1 Nationals 91 71 .561
13 to 2 Dodgers 91 71 .561
14 to 1 Cardinals 86 76 .533
30 to 1 Pirates 85 77 .527
14 to 1 Cubs 84 78 .517
20 to 1 Giants 83 79 .513
30 to 1 Marlins 81 81 .500

 

The Pirates have worse odds than the Padres and Mets, neither of whom are projected to contend for the Wild Card or even finish .500. Aye, this be the National League team you should wager your doubloons on and win some booty!

AMERICAN LEAGUE
Odds Team W L W%
14 to 1 Mariners 89 73 .547
14 to 1 Red Sox 88 74 .546
20 to 1 Tigers 85 77 .526
25 to 1 Indians 84 78 .521
60 to 1 Athletics 84 78 .519
10 to 1 Angels 84 78 .517
30 to 1 Blue Jays 84 78 .516
75 to 1 Rays 83 79 .511
25 to 1 Yankees 82 80 .508
25 to 1 Royals 81 81 .498

 

In the American League, your best options are the Athletics and Rays, and possibly the Blue Jays. The A’s are right in the mix for the wild card, yet have the same odds as the Houston Astros and Atlanta Braves. The Rays are projected to be nearly as good as the A’s and have even worse odds, better than only four teams in all of baseball—the Phillies, Diamondbacks, Rockies, and Twins. The Blue Jays don’t look to be as good a play as the A’s and Rays but, like the Pirates, they have longer odds than other similarly competitive teams.

So, if you’re down in Vegas wagering on that super game coming up on the 1st of February, think about putting some money down on the A’s and don’t forget to see The Blue Man Group.





Bobby Mueller has been a Pittsburgh Pirates fan as far back as the 1979 World Series Championship team ("We R Fam-A-Lee!"). He suffered through the 1980s, then got a reprieve in the early 1990s, only to be crushed by Francisco Cabrera in 1992. After a 20-year stretch of losing seasons, things are looking up for Bobby’s Pirates. His blog can be found at www.baseballonthebrain.com and he tweets at www.twitter.com/bballonthebrain.

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Jim S.
9 years ago

Remember, the odds are about the bettors, not the teams. You will notice that the odds are lower than expected for the teams with the largest population base.

Jon
9 years ago
Reply to  Jim S.

Yes, but all that action only drop those teams odds low enough (and the rest high enough) to balance the betting. Too far and the smart money piles in, just the way Bobby’s trying to identify a few teams to put money on here. But here’s the real proposition: If you spread your money to even your payoff across all the teams Steamer has at over .500 other than NYY, LAD, LAA and CHC, you’d be getting 2:3 odds (e.g 60% underlying probability) that one of them would win it. I think I’d take that bet on the flyover states!

Simon
9 years ago

I like your writing style, sir. Have you considered contributing to Banknotes Industries?

randplaty
9 years ago

But has Steamer projections even proven to be better than Vegas odds?

moosh
9 years ago

Could someone please combine this work with this

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=betweenthenumbers/billybeane/060405

to find the perfect bets?